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Thunder Dan Palyo looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 11 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.
Week 11 brings us some more bye weeks (ATL, IND, NE, NO) but we get a lot more offensive firepower back on the main slate. The Chiefs and Eagles Super Bowl rematch is on Monday night, but we are finally done with international games. This slate looks to be loaded with good matchups and at first glance, feels like a pretty high-scoring Sunday.
This year, I started a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday afternoon (once all the stats and rankings from Monday night's game are processed). This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, November 19. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Week 11 Vegas Totals and Team Data
Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate.
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 11: Main Slate Only
- Dolphins - 29.75
- Lions - 28.75
- Texans - 26.75
- Cowboys - 26.5
- Niners - 26.5
Update: #Dolphins rookie RB DeVon Achane is on track to return in Miami’s Week 11 game against the #Raiders after their bye week, per HC Mike McDaniel
Great news for the Dolphins offense 👏
— KLSFootball (@klsfootball) November 6, 2023
Four out of the top five teams here are double-digit favorites with the exception of the Texans who are just four-point favorites at home against an improved Cardinals team that won their first game with Kyler Murray back last week.
2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through 10 Weeks: Points Per Game
- Dolphins - 31.7
- Cowboys - 29.9
- Niners - 28.0
- Lions - 26.8
- Chargers - 26.6
Remember that one time when the Lions beat the Chargers on a last second field goal? Classic. pic.twitter.com/26yjTk8FIh
— Michigan Sports Guy (@MIsportsguy) November 13, 2023
No Chiefs of Eagles, but the Dolphins are back on the main slate after a few weeks away on bye and in Germany. And this offense gets their incredibly fast rookie RB De'Von Achane back as well.
2023 Stingiest Defenses Through 10 Weeks: Points Allowed Per Game (Avoid)
- Niners - 15.9
- Cowboys - 18.3
- Bills - 18.4
- Browns - 18.4
- Jets - 19.1
Armstead racks up a sack, Niners defense looked great to start the game pic.twitter.com/PgqrbfgDBJ
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) November 12, 2023
The Niners are coming off a beat down of a pretty good Jags offense and now get to go after Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. The Cowboys shut down the Giants until late in the game and now get the lowly Panthers. The Jets face the Bills in what could be a defensive struggle - at least it was in the first meeting when the Jets pulled off the upset by intercepting Josh Allen 100 times.
High Powered Offenses: Most Total Yards Through 10 Weeks
- Dolphins - 435.3
- Lions - 406.4
- Niners - 383.3
- Cowboys - 379.1
- Texans - 372.6
This play didn't count, but this was a jaw-dropping effort by CJ Stroud. pic.twitter.com/InXwD94XI0
— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) November 13, 2023
Struggling Defenses: Most Total Yards Allowed Through 10 Weeks
- Chargers - 393.2
- Commanders - 380.9
- Steelers - 379.7
- Giants - 368.5
- Seahawks - 354.3
This play didn't count, but this was a jaw-dropping effort by CJ Stroud. pic.twitter.com/InXwD94XI0
— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) November 13, 2023
Week 11 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. I will be citing specifically DVOA data courtesy of FTN for the passing and rushing matchups.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Texans (2) vs. Cardinals (30)
- Lions (6) vs. Bears (29)
- Chargers (7) @ Packers (21)
- Niners (1) vs. Bucs (15)
- Seahawks (9) @ Rams (18)
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Commanders (8) vs. Giants (30)
- Dolphins (2) vs. Raiders (27)
- Cowboys (21) @ Panthers (31)
- Texans (28) vs. Cardinals (28)
- Niners (3) vs. Bucs (7)
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Commanders (Devito), Chargers (Love), Bucs (Purdy), Cardinals (Stroud), Lions (Fields/Bagent)
RB - Panthers (Pollard), Cardinals (Singletary), Seahawks (Henderson Jr.), Chargers (Jones), Packers (Ekeler)
WR - Commanders (Robinson), Giants (McLaurin), Bucs (Aiyuk), Chargers (Doubs), Steelers (Cooper)
TE - Texans (McBride), Bears (LaPorta), Rams (Fant), Chargers (Musgrave), Lions (Kmet)
DEF - Giants (WAS), Bears (DET), Jets (BUF), Browns (PIT), Panthers (DAL)
Trey McBride giving off Jackie Smith vibes in the desert today.
Dude has SUPERSTAR potential. pic.twitter.com/abPPtxLjvE
— Johnny Venerable (@JohnnyVenerable) November 13, 2023
Week 11 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis
Every week pricing gets TIGHTER and we feel the squeeze. This makes punt plays more appealing and the idea of a cheap stack incredibly appealing as we try to fit the high-priced smash plays around it. It's pretty ugly this week, I am going to pare it down from five pairs to just three.
- Murray - McBride (10.5k) - Murray looked good in his return and McBride exploded for an 8-131 line. Texans are not good against the TE and this game could shoot out.
- Watson - Cooper (11.6k) - Watson is expected to play this week and while he struggled against the Steelers in the first meeting, he still found Cooper for 7-90. The Steelers secondary is suspect, Watson just has to avoid the turnovers.
- Howell - McLaurin (12.1k) - Howell had one of his worst games of the season against the Giants, but has been cooking since then and the G-Men look totally defeated.
Injury Situations to Monitor This Week
QB: Justin Fields (could return?), Matt Stafford (could return?)
RB: De'Von Achane - expected to return, Dameon Pierce? (Singletary has started last two weeks), Khalil Herbert (could return for CHI?)
WR: Nico Collins (missed last week), Treylon Burks (still hasn't returned after multiple weeks out). Keenan Allen (day-to-day)
TE: Gerald Everett (day-to-day)
Alright, that's it for my Week 11 data dump, I had to skip my interesting stats section this week. Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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