RADIO
You might want to follow my Week 10 GPP DFS stacks recommendations because all three of my Week 9 GPP DFS stack recommendations hit. Sure, the Broncos was a little surprised. But how many other sites actually recommended you start Jake Luton? Not many, I will tell you that much.
On the other hand, even though they might be strong recommendations, you are not going to want to enter these stacks. I fully admit they are quite onerous on the surface. You could pass gas into an overused gym sock that has sat outside growing mold that your pet "relieved" itself on and it might smell better than these stacks do at first whiff.
But finding GPP value where others refuse to stick their beak is half the fun, isn't it? So, yes, perhaps you need to grab a clothespin as you read, but I do suggest you read the following week 10 GPP stack recommendations.
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The "Decaying Bird" Stack
Philadelphia Eagles
There is a lot not to like here.
For one, Carson Wentz has just as many INTs and he does passing TDs this year. And he's averaging less than 236 passing yards per game. The Eagles' most productive WR is a sixth-round pick who is not even on pace to catch 80 passes. Furthermore, the Giants are no pushover on defense either, having piled up 22 sacks which is good for eighth-best in the league.
And yet, I really like this stack. Yes, Wentz's overall numbers are pretty shaky. However, his best game this year was against the Giants three weeks ago. He threw for two touchdowns and launched his way to 359 passing yards. But that's not all--he also ran one in as well. And those aforementioned sacks? Well, the good news is that sacks don't count against quarterbacks, which is part of the reason the Giants have allowed between 20 and 33 quarterback fantasy points the last three weeks. The Eagles are getting healthier across their entire offense, which can only help Wentz. Opponents are passing against the Giants at a 63.7% pass rate. The G-men are allowing an even greater 69.4% completion rate, coupled with a 7.85 yards per attempt, both of which are above league average. Throw in the fact that Wentz is coming off the bye week, I think Wentz definitely has a rebound week.
And part of that rebound will come with help from Travis Fulgham. Like Wentz, Fulgham had a nice day against the Giants when they played. He snagged five of 11 targets for 73 yards. Unfortunately, it was the lone game of the five that he has played that he did not score. Fulgham has a great run of five straight games with double-digit PPR points. He has proven that he is an NFL-caliber WR and Wentz should continue to look his way.
But I like Jalen Reagor, even more, this week. He's only about 2/3 the price of Fulgham and I almost suggested him as one of my GPP Week 10 value plays. Some folks are scared that the return of Alshon Jeffrey will take away from Reagor, but Jeffrey and Fulgham play a similar role while Reagor is more similar to DeSean Jackson. In Reagor's first game back, the Eagles targeted him early and often, along with a carry he took for six yards. Reagor should be guarded by Isaac Yiadom who is definitely the weaker of the Giants DBs. Yiadom has been beaten on 74 of 108 passes for 969 yards over the last two years. He's given up two touchdowns on 20 targets this year and therefore I see a big game coming Reagor's way.
The "That's not the Potomac you're smelling" Stack
Washington Football Team
What in the name of the NFC East is going on here? First the Eagles, now the Washington Football Team?
But hear me out. I touched upon this earlier in the week. Smith's career in Washington is far more known for his grotesque injury to his leg than anything he has done with his arm. In fact, his numbers while Washington's signal-caller are also on the grotesque side. But I'm calling my shot, that ends this week. Smith did not have the benefit of Terry McLaurin during his first season in Washington. He now does.
OH LAWD, what you doin' Terry?!
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/F2SHgS8363
— Sunday Night Football (@SNFonNBC) November 8, 2020
Going into battle with a weapon like McLaurin should definitely help Smith. The fact that the opponent in that battle is the Detroit Lions makes it even better. The Lions are allowing the eleventh most QB fantasy points per game. The stats are not pretty for the Lions Defense. Opposing signal-callers are seeing the 4th highest touchdown rate (6.42%) and passing for 7.78 yards per attempt on average (10th). It looks like Smith is still a little gun shy, but the Lions are 25th in the league in sacking quarterbacks or less than 4 percent of dropbacks.
Smith is not going to be the biggest fantasy point producer this weekend. However, he could easily have the most fantasy points/salary this week, making him a great GPP value. But in case you couldn't tell, I am even more excited about Terry McLaurin. No other WR is even at 43 percent, but McLaurin is dominating Washington's percentage of air yards at 45.3%. He's sixth among receivers, averaging 9.83 targets per game as well. Scary Terry had a daunting matchup last week against James Bradberry but still hauled in seven catches for 115 yards and a score. Matchup-wise, the Lions have allowed four different receivers to top 20 PPR points against them and another four receivers who’ve topped 15 PPR points. The Lions don’t have a shadow cornerback which means Washington can scheme at will and McLaurin could have a field day this weekend.
Logan Thomas meanwhile has unfortunately been very up and down. Fortunately, Alex Smith has a long track record of producing fantasy-relevant TEs. It looks like that started last week when the combo of Smith/Allen targeted running backs and tight ends an insane 59.0 percent of attempts last week. Thomas could be looking at the start of something good
The "If It's Brown Flush It Down" Stack
Cleveland Browns
Everybody likes this game, but it's the Houston side that many will be on with a Jarvis Landry runback. Well, if you like the Landry in the runback, he also makes for a nice part of a primary Brown stack.
UPDATE: Weather forecast for this game has worsened to include 50 MPH wind gusts. Might want to reconsider options for this game
And the counter-argument is that in Odell Beckham's first absence last Browns game, Landry was able to turn only 11 targets into four catches for 52 yards last week. That's not great. But that was in the middle of the "Autumn Wind" games that I talked about last week. Landry was simply one of many receivers who did not have a good game in the swirling gusts. Landry, along with AJ Green, is the only receiver who has seen 50+ targets without a score. I would of course argue that Landry is due and the amount of targets is a good sign, particularly against the Texans. The reason is that Houston has allowed the third most WR fantasy points per target (2.07) this year. The Texans are also allowing the second-highest catch rate in the league to WRs, an eye-popping 71.3%. Furthermore, Houston is likely to have Eric Murray defending the slot. Murray has been scorched for 20 of 26 passing for 252 yards and two touchdowns.
But I'm also liking Baker Mayfield coming off a bye as well. He's been inconsistent this year, but he's still on pace for another 3K passing yards season and a career-high 30 touchdowns. Furthermore, in case you missed it, the matchup is a good one. Houston is giving up a league second-worst 1.59 overall fantasy points per offensive snap. This has helped lead to Houston allowing the third-most fantasy points per game overall. Mayfield is better than some, but we also know its scrambling ability that he makes him a weapon. Yet when you filter out the rushing totals from quarterbacks, Houston has still allowed more than half a fantasy point per attempt to quarterbacks. That's the second-worst mark in the league. If Mayfield can't do it this week, you might want to avoid him for the rest of the year.
A third piece is still needed for this Cleveland stack. Go with the value option of Austin Hooper. He's priced outside of TE1 territory, but he's had at least half a dozen targets in each of his last three games and caught five passes in each. Let's not forget that Hooper had a solid 75 catches last year, including a respectable half dozen for touchdowns. He's way off the pace of last year's yardage, but I suspect he begins to shorten that gap this week. In addition to soft match-ups at WR and QB, Houston has also given up the 10th most TE fantasy points per game.
Of course, Cleveland's pass defense has not exactly been Ft. Knox either. They are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to WRs, which is even worse than Houston. With the money you save on Hooper, I'd gladly spend up and grab Will Fuller as a run-back. With six straight games with a touchdown, Fuller is becoming worthy of his WR1 salary. He's a strong piece to compliment one of the cheaper but effective Week 10 GPP stacks.
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