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Get the top Week 1 NFL player prop bets for Sunday's games. Expert player props analysis for passing yards, total receptions, receiving yards, rushing yards, more.
Well, we finally made it to Week 1! Another NFL season brings another opportunity to win money from your local sportsbooks.
In this article, I'll provide you with my favorite player props for the NFL games on Sunday, September 7.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your NFL and fantasy football needs. Now that we have all of that out of the way, let's dive into some of my favorite player props for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
NFL Player Prop Betting
When I first started handicapping NFL sides/totals and player props, I did so with a weekly bankroll of $500 and would wager $100 a play. I would drive nearly three hours to the closest sportsbook and couldn't wait to start throwing my weight around. With the benefit of hindsight, I now realize what an incredibly stupid plan this was.
However, Lady Luck was on my side. Thanks to some profitable years, strategic investments, and a healthy amount of fantasy football winnings, I am now on the verge of handicapping NFL sides/totals and player props on a full-time basis. It's been quite the journey, but not necessarily one I would recommend. The highs are high and the lows are low. If you do not enjoy roller-coaster rides, NFL handicapping is not for you. Anyone can handle a hot streak, but how do you handle things when you've lost 12 straight wagers? Bad runs like this can happen to anyone. That's why it's crucial you set limits and ensure you're wagering at a portion appropriate to your bankroll.
A good rule of thumb -- each wager should not exceed more than 1 percent of your total bankroll. This still allows you to make a profit while insulating you from any bad potential stretches.
The one thing I have learned handicapping over the years: The player prop market is WILD. Often, these lines fluctuate due to the sheer amount of money coming in on a particular prop. This happens due to the numerous props available and the sportsbooks' inability to sufficiently cover each unique area. Don't get me wrong, it's still very difficult to beat the books even in areas where they're vulnerable. But that also doesn't make it the correct move to hop aboard a prop due to sheer FOMO.
That's why you must do your own research and be ready and willing to act when a prop line seems out of whack -- even if the market is going against your convictions. Now, none of this is to say you should take my word or stance on a prop as gospel. I am wrong every week and quite often. So, while I appreciate you reading this column, keep all of this in mind and make sure you reach your own decisions before putting your own hard-earned money on any weekly bets.
Week 1 Passing Props
Cameron Ward OVER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-125) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .8 Units to Win .64 Units
Tennessee threw the ball a little over 31 times per game last year. That was with Will Levis and Mason Rudolph splitting time at quarterback. Now, the Titans get an upgrade in the form of 2025 first overall pick Cameron Ward.
If you were looking for every Cam Ward preseason completion, here you go 😉 pic.twitter.com/c846nyLXfx
— NFL (@NFL) August 25, 2025
Ward has drawn rave reviews everywhere we've looked this summer. If that's the case and Ward is a legitimate franchise quarterback, it stands to reason that Tennessee will be comfortable throwing the ball more often this year.
Head coach Brian Callahan has previously shown no hesitation in letting rookie signal-callers air it out. Callahan was the Cincinnati Bengals' offensive coordinator during Joe Burrow's rookie season in 2020. Burrow averaged 40.4 pass attempts per game that year, and we might see similar results from Ward.
Tennessee travels to Denver to take on the Broncos in Week 1. The Titans are listed as eight-point underdogs at some books. This is a tough road matchup for Ward's first career start. Denver is a good team, and the Titans may fall behind early in this game. This would force them to play catch-up the rest of the way, and Ward would throw the ball more in the process.
We have multiple avenues to hit this prop, and I expect Ward to easily surpass this total.
J.J. McCarthy UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .38 Units to Win .33 Units
Minnesota draws a matchup with the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell is not averse to throwing the football, but things might be different to start 2025. That's because 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy takes over as the team's QB1.
J.J. McCarthy to Trishton Jackson for the 45 yard TD!
And @JJettas2 LOVES it!
📺: #LVvsMIN on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/QmEKsnabMz— NFL (@NFL) August 10, 2024
The Vikings have expressed confidence in McCarthy but have also stressed the need to be patient with their young signal-caller. Chicago struggled last year, but its defense was quietly very good. The Bears finished 13th in defensive passing DVOA in 2024. With Dennis Allen now calling the shots on defense, this unit could be even better this year.
Minnesota also acquired former San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason this offseason to form a 1-2 tandem with veteran Aaron Jones Sr. That is a sign Minnesota may wish to run the football more this year with McCarthy under center.
With this game having one of the lowest projected totals on the Week 1 slate, we can probably expect a defensive slog where Minnesota runs the ball to protect its young signal-caller.
Week 1 Rushing Props
Nick Chubb Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .36 Units to Win .33 Units
With Joe Mixon on the NFI list nursing a mysterious foot injury, Chubb is in line to start. While that might seem like a good thing, Chubb was one of the worst running backs in the league in 2024. Among 46 backs with 100+ attempts last year, Chubb ranked:
- 45th in EPA per attempt, per FTN Fantasy
- 44th in PFF rushing grade
- 32nd in PFF elusive rating
- 44th in PFF breakaway run percentage
This is a low total, hence our small unit size, but Chubb doesn't appear to be the same player since his 2023 knee injury. He may not even get the lion's share of the work, as there were reports Dameon Pierce was working with the first team this summer.
The Rams are a plus matchup on paper, but Houston's new-look offensive line might not be able to take advantage. Until we see results, it's best to fade Chubb and this offensive line.
Alvin Kamara UNDER 14.5 Rush Attempts (-109) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.09 Units to Win 1 Unit
New Orleans looks like a team on a fast track to the No. 1 overall pick. Spencer Rattler has been named the starting quarterback, and he was not effective in six starts last year. New Orleans lost all six of Rattler's starts a year ago and did so by an average of 20 points.
No Saints running backs eclipsed 13 carries in any of Rattler's six starts, either. In three starts with Rattler, Kamara's rushing attempts were 13, 7, and 10.
The only way this prop has a realistic shot at hitting is if the Saints are competitive the entire game against the Arizona Cardinals. I don't expect that to be the case, and fully expect Arizona to take care of business and stomp out the Saints this weekend. Play this number down to 13.5.
Week 1 Receiving Props
Tucker Kraft OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur spent the entire offseason saying Kraft needed to be further involved in the team's offense in 2025. Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich and quarterback Jordan Love have also confirmed that it will be the case this year.
When looking at the data, it's easy to see why Green Bay wants Kraft further involved. Targeting Kraft last year was a very efficient play. Among 140 pass-catchers with 50+ targets, Kraft ranked 16th in EPA/target, per FTN Fantasy. Kraft also finished fourth in EPA/target among all tight ends with 50+ targets in 2024.
The Packers face the Detroit Lions this weekend. Green Bay struggled the first go-round against Detroit last year and lost by 10 points. However, LaFleur adjusted the second time around, and Green Bay was much more competitive in that game, losing on a last-second field goal. The adjustment LaFleur made was to attack Detroit's defense through Kraft.
Start #Packers TE Tucker Kraft in WK 1.
After losing their first matchup to DET last year, GB played DET much tougher in WK 13.
That’s because targeting Kraft was VERY effective.
Kraft had a total 4.88 EPA and a .697 EPA/TGT per @FTNFantasy
Solid TE1 play #FantasyFootball
— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) September 1, 2025
Combine Kraft being highly effective against Detroit last year with the nonstop chatter about his role increasing, and we get a ridiculously bad line. I'm taking full advantage and have already placed a wager for a full unit on this prop. I'm also sprinkling a bit on some of Kraft's alt yardage numbers as well.
I got this line when it was 34.5, but I still think there is plenty of value at the current number. If you want to get in at this price point, you'd better act fast. This line is as high as 39.5 in some books, so this 36.5 number might not be around much longer. I'd be comfortable playing this line into the low 40s.
Chig Okonkwo OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to win .5 Units
This play ties into our earlier one regarding Okonkwo's quarterback, Cameron Ward. The Denver Broncos' defense is expected to be among the best in the league, and the team was very good against tight ends last year. However, Tennessee likely will be playing from behind in this game, and that's good news for Okonkwo.
Tennessee also featured Okonkwo more to close the 2024 season. From Weeks 15-17, Tennessee made Okonkwo a focal point of the offense. He averaged over seven receptions and over 60 receiving yards per game to close the year. Denver also allowed a little over 47 receiving yards per game to tight ends last year, per FTN Fantasy.
With the Titans having few options behind WR1 Calvin Ridley, I like taking a chance on Okonkwo to surpass this small total.
Ricky Pearsall OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
I am very bullish on Pearsall's 2025 outlook. He closed the 2024 season strong and started to look like the player San Francisco took in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft.
After review, this play is confirmed a TD! Purdy ➡️ Pearsall for the score.
📺: #DETvsSF on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/MsJmGIFuFM— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2024
Pearsall also reportedly worked hard with quarterback Brock Purdy this offseason to improve their chemistry. With fellow receiver Jauan Jennings expected to suit up, I love targeting Pearsall this week in props. Jennings will likely occupy the X receiver role against Seattle. That will allow Pearsall to move around the formation and feast in the middle of the field.
This line is too low for a player who could very well operate as San Francisco's WR1 to start the year.
