X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

NFL NextGen Stats Analysis: Week 1 Takeaways - Air Yards

Antonio Losada provides key fantasy football takeaways from Week 1 Air Yards numbers in his weekly Next Gen stats series to help owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.

We made it! We wagered through a long and tedious preseason but real football hit us in the forehead for the first time this season during the past few days and change. But just as soon as it came, it went. The first week of the season is over and we have some tasty numbers already available and ready to be crunched.

At this point in time, there is no excuse for you not to access the advanced statistics being used in every sport you follow and their importance. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It is not that those stats are worthless, but they don't offer enough to the savvy analysts. While football is yet in its infancy in terms of analytics compared to baseball, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

You already know why I'm here: I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats on a weekly basis, bringing you the data from the just-completed week's games and highlighting some takeaways you should take into consideration when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming games. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our preseason primer. With this little introduction and two-way congratulatory message (I wanted football back in my life as much as you did, we both deserve congrats for enduring such a hard summer of endless waiting) out of the way, it's time to get to the data!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Week 1 - Air Yards Don't Lie

If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know Air Yards tells us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed.)

I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY), and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%)TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of Air Yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total Air Yards.

As we have only seen one week of action, it would be a little hasty to make too many conclusions out of just one game worth of data. That is why I'm leaning toward receivers (wideouts and tight ends) for the first entry of the series. This doesn't mean Air Yard values are already stabilized, not close to it, but it is highly probable that what we see in Week 1 stays the same at least in the short-term future.

On top of that, most receivers have already seen at least five targets (NGS cutoff to qualify), and those we haven't either won't be heavily relied on going forward (barring injuries or forced depth chart changes) or play for teams that won't be using a pass-heavy scheme (looking at you, Minnesota.)

 

Looking at League-Wide Team Trends

Just to get things started, here are the top five and bottom five teams in Average Targeted Yards. I have included every team, although one didn't have a single player qualified:

Team Players w/ 5+Tgt Avg TAY
1. MIA 3 16.9
2. SEA 1 16.5
3. DET 3 14.4
4. BAL 2 13.8
5. GB 3 13.0
28. LAR 4 7.8
29. JAX 3 6.0
30. TEN 1 4.7
31. SF 1 3.9
32. MIN 0 --

As you can see, results are all over the table (no pun intended.) We go from Miami leading the way with three players averaging a staggering 16.5 TAY to San Francisco at just 3.9 TAY with only one player (George Kittle) seeing five-plus targets. Minnesota, as I mentioned earlier, was the only team to not have a receiver thrown the ball at least five times. Incredible, but as real as it comes (the Vikings threw 10 passes all-game).

Fantasy Takeaways:

  • Miami, led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, did what everybody expected the QB to do and in a catch-up game versus Baltimore just threw bombs away to the receiving corps. There will be games when Fitzpatrick put up 300-plus yards and others when all the risks he takes end in nothing.
  • Seattle ranks high on the merit of D.K. Metcalf alone. As ridiculous as it sounds, Tyler Lockett was only targeted twice. Expect Seattle to involve more receivers as the season goes on, and don't bet too high on Metcalf yet.
  • Arizona doesn't appear on the list but they averaged 11.65 TAY with four players qualified. All of the Cardinals players qualified averaged between 12.3 and 10.6 TAY, making for a small deviation and showing how Arizona seems to be fully committed to the Air Raid system and deep passes.
  • Minnesota is just throwing away the passing game. To pass 10 times in a full game is just unheard of. The most-targeted received was Adam Thielen with three targets. Stefon Diggs logged two. Fade the Vikings' receiving corps because they offer no upside at all if they keep playing this way.

 

Analyzing Individual Player Performances

Now that we know which teams went all the way downfield with their throws and which of them opted for a more cautious approach, is time to look at individual players. In order to keep things under control and not going too wild, here are the receivers to log at least an 18-plus TAY average, and those that fell under a four TAY average:

Player
Team
Pos TAY
1. James Washington PIT WR 26.8
2. Devante Parker MIA WR 23.4
3. Mike Evans TB WR 22.7
4. Cody Latimer NYG WR 20.3
5. Terry McLaurin
WAS
WR 19.4
6. Jimmy Graham GB TE 18.8
7. Marquise Brown BAL WR 18.4
80. George Kittle SF TE 3.9
81. Vernon Davis WAS TE 3.4
82. Jamison Crowder NYJ WR 3.0
83. Sterling Shepard
NYG
WR 2.7
84. C.J. Uzomah CIN TE 2.1
85. Ryan Switzer
PIT
WR 1.9
86. Dede Westbrook JAX WR 1.1

Unsurprisingly, players from three of the top five teams highlighted earlier appear at the top of this list. The bottom of the table also includes two players that were part of the lowest-TAY offenses of Week 1.

Looking at those numbers and other stats from the first week of the season we can get some interesting insights to inform our fantasy decisions going forward:

Fantasy Takeaways:

  • After waving goodbye to Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, James Washington is the clear deep-route option for Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. Perhaps JuJu Smith-Schuster will see more targets and get more completions on shorter, easier routes, but Washington will get chances to put up big numbers.
  • In a tanking season, Miami won't bother after throwing an interception here or there. It showed in Parker's usage, averaging 23.4 TAY in as many as seven targets during the game.
  • In similar fashion to what Fitzpatrick did with Parker, Jameis Winston did with Evans. Winston is another bombing QB and he won't hesitate in throwing deep balls.
  • It's worth keeping an eye on Terry McLaurin. The rookie averaged the sixth-largest cushion (distance from his defender at the LOS), showed great speed, and caught five of seven targets with a great TAY average.
  • Jamison Crowder finished with 14 receptions on 17 targets while posting an ultra-low 3.0 TAY average. This shows how large TAY numbers don't necessarily mean better production. Crowder profiles as the go-to receiver for Sam Darnold and a sure point-getter week to week.
  • Something similar happened to Kittle. Jimmy Garoppolo was a mess in the passing game, the 49ers receiving corps are blurry and Kittle looks like the every-snap safety valve of the offense. More worrying (a lot) are Dede Westbrook 1.1 TAY average. He should be the no. 1 option for Jacksonville on offense a big yard gainer, but with such low averages he is far from making a real impact.

 

Bringing It All Together: Usage Patterns Seen Week 1

So far I've looked at teams and players individually, but the meats and potatoes of our beloved Air Yards come when looking at the whole picture. There is no better way to get there than studying TAY% rates.

While TAY raw numbers (even averaged) give a good idea of how deep a player is being targeted, what is really meaningful is how much they are being used. Remember, in fantasy football all comes down to volume. No matter if you roster a receiver that can't run more than five yards down the field if he gets thrown the ball each and every snap he will end topping the week's points leaderboards.

Here are your leaders (45-plus TAY%) and trailers (under-10 TAY%) for the first week of the season:

Player Team Pos TAY%
1. Tyrell Williams OAK WR 60.6
2. D.K. Metcalf SEA WR 59.0
3. DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR 55.7
4. Cody Latimer NYG WR 54.9
5. Sammy Watkins KC WR 53.4
6. Robby Anderson NYJ WR 52.9
7. Keenan Allen LAC WR 46.1
77. James O'Shaughnessy JAX TE 9.4
78. Bennie Fowler NYG WR 9.0
79. O.J. Howard TB TE 8.9
80. Justin Hardy ATL WR 8.4
81. Diontae Johnson PIT WR 8.0
82. Vernon Davis WAS TE 7.6
83. Sterling Shepard NYG WR 6.3
84. Dede Westbrook JAX WR 3.2
85. C.J. Uziomah CIN TE 2.9
86. Ryan Switzer PIT WR 2.5

Now you see where I was going with this. We have officially entered the elite-level territory with names such as those of DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins making the list. But there are also surprises on the bottom part of the table. Let's take a deeper look at things and come up with some fantasy-related insights.

Fantasy Takeaways:

  • Oakland offense is bare-bones and barred of talent. No wonder Tyrell Williams led the way this week in TAY%. Williams is the best receiver of the Raiders after Antonio Brown's departure and he surpassed the ridiculous 60% mark in TAY%, the only one able to among all qualified receivers. If you don't have Williams in your team you might want to add him. There aren't many players with such an open field of opportunities in from of them.
  • Sammy Wakins had a ridiculous performance. He caught nine passes out of 11 targets, finished with 198 yards and scored three touchdowns. All of this with a 53.43 TAY% that will go up as Tyreek Hill was injured. You won't find Watkins in the waiver wire, but if you can pull a deal and trade for him, definitely go for it.
  • Although TAY% could be easily misunderstood as a proxy to usage rate, it doesn't mean both things correlate. There is a good chance they do, but looking at the New York Jets we see a completely different image. While Anderson racked up 52.92% of the TAY, Crowder finished the game at 22.44%. Anderson had three receptions for 23 yards and Crowder had 14 receptions for 99 yards. That's the problem of being targeted deep: plays are harder to make. Oh, and for your fantasy aspirations, bank on Crowder. There is no better QB-WR looking pair as that of Darnold and Crowder so far.
  • I don't like getting back to this, but Dede Westbrook's performance was definitely upsetting. He put up just 30 yards on 5 receptions but wasn't a threat at all, with just a 3.19% share of the Jaguars' TAY. At least he got a touchdown, but if this becomes the norm I wouldn't hesitate and try to move him via trade as soon as possible.
  • Finally, O.J. Howard may be in for a tough season in Tampa Bay. While I think low marks on both TAY and TAY% could be a constant in Howard's stat lines and not bad for him, Winston was horrid in Week 1 and that could easily affect Howard's fantasy upside. He is also sharing the field with studs like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I'm not saying you should drop, fade or trade him, but keep an eye on how things develop in Tampa.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Corbin Carroll

Injures Hand on Wednesday, X-Rays Come Back Negative
Michael King

Likely Out Through All-Star Break
Tyrese Haliburton

Officially Questionable for Game 6
Bucky Irving

Not Resting on Laurels Ahead of Second Season
Denver Broncos

Mario Goodrich Signs with Denver
Maverick McNealy

May Need To Be Avoided at TPC River Highlands
MLB

Brewers-Cubs Postponed on Wednesday
Shedeur Sanders

Issued Citation for Excessive Speeding
MLB

Cardinals-White Sox Postponed on Wednesday
Wyndham Clark

Avoid Wyndham Clark at the Travelers Championship
Rickie Fowler

a Very Risky Option at TPC River Highlands
Russell Henley

Has Elite Value at TPC River Highlands
Ben Griffin

Once Again a Solid Option for Travelers Championship
Jason Day

an Intriguing Option at TPC River Highlands
MLB

Pirates-Tigers Postponed on Wednesday
PGA

Sungjae Im Still Totally Useless For DFS Ahead of Travelers Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Looking to Bounce Back After Messy U.S. Open
Ryan Fox

Looks to Continue Hot Run at TPC River Highlands
Jordan Spieth

Makes a Strong Case at Travelers Championship
Tyjae Spears

Has Impressed this Offseason
Cam Skattebo

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Beaux Collins

Working with Giants Starters
Marquise Brown

Feels 100% Healthy
Damon Arnette

Texans Signing Damon Arnette
Jaire Alexander

Inks One-Year Deal with Ravens
Jared Wiley

Wearing Knee Brace at Minicamp
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks to Continue Momentum Into Travelers Championship
Anders Carlson

Jets Release Anders Carlson
Malik Nabers

Will be Ready for Training Camp
TreVeyon Henderson

Unclear if TreVeyon Henderson is a Future Bell-Cow Back
Hideki Matsuyama

Searching for Consistency at Travelers Championship
Justin Thomas

Looks to Bounce Back at Travelers Championship
Travis Hunter

More Comfortable on Defense?
Adam Scott

Looks to Rebound After Disappointing U.S. Open Finish
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Another Strong Performance at Travelers
Shane Lowry

a High-Upside Play at Travelers
Tommy Fleetwood

Looks to Rebound at Travelers
Corey Conners

Withdraws from Travelers with Wrist Injury
Keegan Bradley

in Solid Form Ahead of Travelers Championship
Gary Woodland

Hit-or-Miss at the Travelers
Sepp Straka

Expected to Contend at Travelers Championship
Tyrese Haliburton

to Be a Game-Time Call Thursday
Roman Josi

Expects to Return for 2025-26 Campaign
Sam Bennett

Wins Conn Smythe Trophy
Matthew Tkachuk

Reveals Multiple Injuries
Aleksander Barkov

Posts Two Assists in Cup-Clinching Win
Carter Verhaeghe

Collects Hat Trick of Assists in Tuesday's Win
Sam Reinhart

Scores Four Goals in Cup-Clincher
Cal Raleigh

Homers, Drives in Six on Tuesday
Andy Pages

Homers Twice in Win Over Padres
Cam Smith

Launches Two Home Runs in Victory
Salvador Perez

Homers Twice, Plates Four Tuesday
Michael Toglia

Homers Twice, Plates Three Tuesday
Javier Báez

Javier Baez Collects Three Hits, Homers Twice Tuesday
Las Vegas Raiders

Jeremy Chinn Will Continue to Play Multiple Roles With Raiders
Christian Wilkins

Absent at Minicamp
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders to Add Cornerback Help?
Rafael Devers

Expected to Play First Base in San Francisco
Will Warren

Strikes Out 11 in Quality Start
Elijah Ellis

Signs with Chargers
Jashaun Corbin

Heading to Atlanta
Kyren Williams

Rams Progressing Toward Extension
Jaxson Dart

Showing Well Early
Max Scherzer

Could Rejoin Blue Jays Next Week
John Klingberg

Rejoins Oilers Lineup Tuesday
Tylor Megill

Placed on 15-Day Injured List, Out 4-5 Weeks With Elbow Sprain
Kasperi Kapanen

Returns to Oilers Lineup for Game 6
Stuart Skinner

Back in Oilers Crease Tuesday
Gabriel Moreno

Scratched on Tuesday With Sore Hand
Jurickson Profar

Starting Rehab Assignment on Tuesday
Will Vest

Likely to Avoid Injured List
Rafael Devers

Expected to Make Giants Debut on Tuesday
Chet Holmgren

Has Tough Shooting Night in Game 5 Against Pacers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Outstanding at Both Ends Monday
Jalen Williams

Erupts for 40 Points in Game 5 Win
Pascal Siakam

Has Best Game of Finals Monday
Tyrese Haliburton

Determined to Battle Through Calf Injury
LeBron James

Progressing Well From Knee Injury
Lucas Giolito

Strikes Out Season-High 10 in Monday's Win
Logan Gilbert

Fans 10 in Return on Monday
Stephen Curry

"Not Even Close" to Retirement
Jonathan Kuminga

Linked to Bulls, Heat
Kevin Durant

Has "No Desire" to be Traded to Minnesota
Jarace Walker

Remains Sidelined for Game 5
Kamaru Usman

Gets Back In The Win Column
Joaquin Buckley

Winning Streak Comes To An End
Miranda Maverick

Drops Decision At UFC Atlanta
Rose Namajunas

Wins Decision At UFC Atlanta
Andre Petroski

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Edmen Shahbazyan

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Raoni Barcelos

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Chase Elliott

Ends Mexico City with A Great Finish of Third
Christopher Bell

has A Strong Runner-Up Performance At Mexico City
Chase Briscoe

Wild Day Ends with A Top-10 Finish
Michael McDowell

Leaves Mexico City with A Top-Five Finish
Cody Garbrandt

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Brundage

Defeated After Accidental Clash Of Heads
Cody Brundage

Mansur Abdul-Malik Defeats Cody Brundage By Technical Decision
Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on his Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road-Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup-Series Comeback at Mexico City
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF