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Todd Salem looks at bullpen usage across the MLB for week 1 of the 2020 fantasy baseball season. Which relief pitchers and closers are being used heavily, and which are due for more saves and holds in the near future?
One of the biggest questions in baseball this season will be how managers approach bullpen usage. That was already arguably the manager's heaviest workload in a normal season, apart from immeasurable impacts on team mood and cohesion. However, this year the bullpen will be in even clearer focus.
Every blown save counts 2.7 times more than in a normal year. Each loss is almost three normal-year losses. With starting pitchers throwing less and less and now entering under such bizarre circumstances, nearly every, single game this year is going to come down to bullpen performance.
But which direction does a manager go? Does he lean even more on his best guy, throwing him nearly every day? What if that means using them in high-leverage, non-save situations? Does he throw out all roles and sub based entirely on matchups? Is there a shorter leash for closers because of the stakes? A longer leash because no one else would have time to get comfortable in the role? All these answers remain up in the air until we see how each manager chooses to approach this 60-game slate.
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Monitoring Bullpens in 2020
Bullpen usage will be something to monitor each and every day, so we'll be publishing a weekly article at RotoBaller that tracks which bullpens are being taxed, and which pitchers within that bullpen are being heavily used. The idea of this column is to help you gain an inside track into which relief pitchers, closers, and setup men should be avoided or targeted in a given week of fantasy baseball.
As always, we'll be closely tracking bullpen updates every day in our Closer Depth Charts. That is definitely a resource you want to bookmark and visit each day to stay up-to-date with the latest bullpen changes and movements.
The Cloudiest Bullpens
Not every team has a designated closer entering the season; some by design, many not. Injuries play a part, but injuries don't make a bullpen cloudy. Uncertainty in talent, production, and pecking order do. We know Aroldis Chapman will not be closing for the New York Yankees to start the season. We also know he will most certainly be closing once he returns to full health. The same goes for Keona Kela in Pittsburgh. That isn't a cloudy bullpen. These are:
Baltimore - There are few save chances to go around in Baltimore. Mychal Givens got a lot of them last year, but not all. Instead of giving him the role to start and removing a lot of uncertainty, manager Brandon Hyde elected to do the opposite. He declared the back of the bullpen very much unknown, with Givens, Hunter Harvey, and Richard Bleier in contention to close.
Seattle - We thought newcomer Yoshihisa Hirano would be installed as part of a committee in the Seattle pen to begin 2020. Hirano instead enters the delayed start on the IL. What remains is still a surprisingly large committee that is a huge jumble of unknown options and potential usage based on matchup. According to MLB.com, all of Matt Magill, Austin Adams, Dan Altavilla, and Anthony Misiewicz are options for Scott Servais, and the manager is not planning on going with a set closer.
St. Louis - What a roller coaster the Cardinals pen has been! We thought Giovanny Gallegos was going to close but may get pushed by Carlos Martinez and Andrew Miller. Then Gallegos got hurt. Now he'll probably be healthy for Opening Day. But he isn't going to close anyway. And it isn't Martinez or Miller taking his spot! Instead, Mike Shildt tabbed rookie (and Korean veteran) Kwang Hyun Kim as the closer, even though he never closed in Korea during regular-season games. Fangraphs isn't yet convinced. As of July 21, it lists four players as the St. Louis closer.
The Shakiest Bullpens
Cloudy bullpens don't have to be shaky. A number of the options in St. Louis seem like premiere late-inning guys. We just don't know how it will play out on a day-to-day basis. Shaky bullpens don't have to start cloudy either, though they normally get cloudy as one failure leads to another.
Miami - Brandon Kintzler will lead the way out of the Marlins bullpen. His 2019 was statistically tremendous for Chicago, though it was in a secondary role, he didn't strike out many batters, and his FIP was nearly a run worse than his ERA. He was also one of the worst pitchers in the game in terms of hard-hit percentage allowed, exit velocity allowed, and whiff rate. The last time he was a go-to closer at the beginning of 2017, and yet he is far and away Miami's best option right now.
Colorado - It may be just a matter of time until the Rockies turn to Scott Oberg or Jairo Diaz late in games. For now, Wade Davis is the man with the job. Both Oberg and Diaz have pretty good swing-and-miss stuff, though the latter gives up far too much hard contact. And neither man can keep the base paths empty. Oberg had a sky-high 10.3 walk rate last season, and Diaz's 1.30 WHIP speaks for itself. Yet both seem better than Davis. Davis was non-functioning in 2019. The only saving grace may be how sneakily good he was in Colorado in 2018 and that his fastball spin rate remains elite. If that indicates a jump back up in strikeout rate is coming, stay tuned.
Saves up for Grabs
Stay tuned during the season where we'll monitor weekly bullpen usage to get an idea of who may need rest, is in the doghouse, has favorable matchups, or where unexpected saves can be earned.
