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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for March 7th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 7th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/7/23
The trade market has officially come and gone and teams are gearing up for a tough stretch of very meaningful games and playoffs in hopes of a date with Lord Stanley. Tonight we have a 10-game slate with three teams playing on a back-to-back: Buffalo, San Jose and Calgary. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Pittsburgh with 4.3, Colorado with 4.3 and Tampa Bay with 4.2. I will do my best in guiding you through this ten-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Filip Gustavsson- DK $7.9K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
DraftKings absolutely threw us a bone tonight. There are zero reasons that Gustavsson should be under $8K in salary. The netminder has won 4 of his last 5 appearances while posting south of a 0.900 Save Percentage just once and conceding only 7 goals in that span. Out of all goalies who have played 5 or more games in the league, Gustavsson is the second-best goalie in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – 0.745 –, the only goalie better than him is Linus Ullmark of the Boston Bruins. Calgary is traveling for the second-half of their back-to-back after winning 4-3 last night against Dallas. As stated time and time again, the Flames are a high-shot output team but lack goals. This sets up Gustavsson for a ceiling-potential game tonight. In Minnesota’s last five home games, they have conceded just 8 goals.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Andersen (DK $8.4K || FD $7.9K), Vasilevskiy (DK $8.1K || FD $8K)
Centers
Nathan MacKinnon-DK $9.8K || FD $10.4K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
MacKinnon is easily going to be the ‘chalkiest’ player on the slate tonight. The center in his last five games, has 5 goals, 22 shots and 6 blocked shots. Aforementioned in yesterday’s article, the Sharks’ defense is not bad, but they are the second-worst team in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.15 – over the season. Unlike the Jets – lost 3-2 to the Sharks last night –, the Avalanche have the capability of having a massive game any night of the week. In Colorado’s last five home games, they have outscored their opposition 20 to 16 and expected Sharks starter Kaapo Kahkonen has conceded 18 goals in his last five starts. On the complete opposite side of the spectrum in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60, Kahkonen is the fifth-worst goalie – -0.717 –. This is a big spot for a blowup night for MacKinnon and company.
Sidney Crosby- DK $7.1K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Crosby and the Penguins have their back against the wall after losing hand over foot over the past month. Luckily for them, they have arguably the best matchup on the slate against Merzlikins and the struggling Blue Jackets. Similar to Sharks netminder Kaapo Kahkonen expected Blue Jackets starter Elvis Merzlikins is the third-worst goalie in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – -0.918 – and in his last five games, he has conceded 16 goals. The Penguins are rebounding in a nice way though winning 4 of their last five games and in that span, Crosby has 2 goals, 2 assists and 16 shots. Crosby should see the top-six for the majority of the contest, leading to plenty of chances.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hughes (DK $8.7K || FD $10.1K), Schenn (DK $4.3K || FD $5.3K)
Wings
Artturi Lehkonen- DK $5.5K || FD $6.3K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Lehkonen is the ‘cheaper’ piece to the top line for the Avalanche in a prime spot tonight. In the last five games, the winger has 4 assists, 6 shots and 3 blocked shots. His peripherals have dropped tremendously since linemate Valeri Nichushkin returned from injury. However, Lekhonen is approximately $1K less than Nichushkin and with many premium spots tonight, it is imperative we save salary where we can without compromising the entire lineup.
Dawson Mercer- DK $5K || FD $6K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
Similar to Lehkonen, there are too many big spots to play tonight and get pieces from. Hence why we are looking at Dawson Mercer and not Timo Meier, although Meier is a tremendous option too. In Mercer’s last five games, he has 5 goals, 5 assists, 19 shots and 3 blocked shots. He is producing in every facet of the game for the Devils. Furthermore, in a matchup where the Maple Leafs are down two important players – O’Reilly on the IR and Tavares missing the game –, Mercer should see more ice to operate in and generate chances.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Rakell (DK $6K || FD $6.3K), Killorn (DK $4.7K || FD $4.7K)
Defense
Juuso Valimaki- DK $4.2K || FD $4.1K
Opponent - St Louis Blues
Valimaki is now the main man in Arizona and he isn't shy to pressure. The defenseman was in this position before when ex-teammates Chychrun and Gostisbehere were being held out and injured respectively and he excelled. In Valimaki's last five games, he has 4 assists, 3 shots and 12 blocked shots. The Blues continue to struggle and this could play out as a high-event meeting. With Valimaki on the top pairing and power-play unit, he is expected to hold value at a minimum tonight.
John Klingberg- DK $3.8K || FD $5.2K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
The once dominant blue liner, Klingberg has taken a big step backward this season. Klingberg had a rough season along with the rest of the Anaheim Ducks. Through 51 appearances, he had 24 points – 8 goals and 16 assists –. To put things in perspective he had 47 points last year in 74 appearances with the Dallas Stars and in his best season, he put up 67 points in 82 appearances with the Stars. He is now getting acquainted with his new team, the Minnesota Wild and it remains to be seen if he will get a chance to quarterback the top power-play unit or not. However, for now, he is running the second unit and also on the second pairing. The Flames just played last night in a thrilling 5-4 win over Dallas. Klingberg should see quite a few chances tonight as the Flames already play a fast-paced game and on a back-to-back the defense will not fully be there. For a bargain salary play, Klingberg has a lot of potential to reach and exceed value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Krug (DK $4.7K || FD $5.7K), Gostisbehere (DK $5.4K || FD $5.9K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- COL1
- PIT1
- NJ1
- CAR1
- TB1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- STL: Buchnevich-Schenn-Kyrou
Chalk Stack
- COL: Nichushkin-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Sneaky Stack
- MIN: Johansson-Eriksson Ek-Boldy
