RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Thursday, 30th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/30/23
The league is approaching the final stretch run as many teams fight for a date with Lord Stanley and we have already started to see some teams like the Boston Bruins playing their star players less, to rest them for playoffs. This will become a bigger trend as we close in on playoffs and it can impact fantasy in a big way. It is important to understand this when making roster decisions. Tonight we have an 11-game slate with two teams playing on a back-to-back, Florida and Washington. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Boston with 4.6, Seattle with 4.4 and Florida with 4. I will do my best in guiding you through this eleven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Alex Nedeljkovic DK $6.8K || FD $6.8K
Opponent - Carolina Hurricanes
We – more like me – shouldn’t get our hopes up too much, but Nedejkovic looked terrific in net in the 7-4 win against the Penguins on Tuesday. In his three games since returning, he has 1 win and has posted one game above 0.900 Save Percentage, albeit the other two being very close. The Hurricanes are struggling on all fronts right now and they have made some questionable line adjustments, virtually ruining their only scoring line. In their last five away games, they have been outscored 14 to 17 and over their last 10 games, they are drastically underperforming compared to season averages, placing them in the bottom five in Shots For Per 60, Scoring Chances For Per 60, High Danger Chances For Per 60 and Expected Goals For Per 60. For a goalie under $7K on DraftKings, this is one of the biggest value plays on the slate.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Brossoit (DK $8.4K || FD $8.5K), Talbot (DK $7.8K || FD $7.3K)
Centers
Patrice Bergeron-DK $6.2K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Unfortunately, the Bruins have the post-season locked up and it is making their players’ TOI – time on ice – extremely hard to predict. With the Bruins expected to score at least four goals tonight, it is fair to expect lower TOI for their top six. We can look to their last dominant game, a 7-0 win in Buffalo a week and a half ago. Bergeron saw a season-low 11 minutes of ice time. In those 11 minutes though, Bergeron managed 1 goal, 2 assists and 4 shots. It is very possible that Bergeron can replicate that stat line or something similar in an even better matchup against the Blue Jackets who are conceding a slate high 34 Goals Against in their last five away games.
Jack Eichel- DK $7.7K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Eichel is starting to pick form up again with 1 goal, 4 assists and 6 shots in his last three games. Dating it back to his last five games and he has 4 goals, 4 assists, 12 shots and 4 blocked shots. Outside of the Bruins, the Golden Knights are one of the bigger favorites on the slate due to their matchup with the Sharks – the third-worst in Expected Goals Against Per 60 over the last 10 games compared to the season average –. Also, Kaapo Kahkonen could possibly make a return to net and he has conceded 23 Goals Against in his last five appearances, making Eichel and company a rather attractive play tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Point (DK $7.4K || FD $8.3K), Pinto (DK $3.9K || FD $4.6K)
Wings
Jakub Vrana- DK $5.2K || FD $5.6K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Both Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas are out for the Blues tonight, elevating Vrana to the top line. He should see the notorious Blackhawks’ second line who is known for their awful defensive efforts. In Vrana’s last five outings, he has 3 goals, 1 assist, 17 shots and 2 blocked shots. Chicago is currently skating by thanks to their superb goaltending as of late. When comparing their last 10 games to their season averages, the Blackhawks are in the bottom five in both Scoring Chances Against Per 60 and High Danger Chances Against Per 60, as well as in the bottom ten in Shots Against Per 60. The opportunities are surely there, but will Vrana and company be able to crack the netminder?
Jonathan Marchessault- DK $5.9K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Depending on how you want to navigate the slate, you can either stack the Golden Knights top line, or you can play Marchessault who is the cheaper player between him and Eichel as a one-off. In Marchessault’s last five games, he has 4 goals, 2 assists and 16 shots. The Sharks’ defense has been aforementioned above and Marchessault has a chance to extend his goal streak to 4 games tonight. With the Los Angeles Kings knocking on the door for the top spot in the Pacific, it is imperative that the Golden Knights win and Marchessault is expected to be at the center of the scoring.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): M. Tkachuk (DK $8.8K || FD $9.7K), DeBrusk (DK $6.4K || FD $7.1K)
Defense
Erik Brannstrom- DK $2.6K || FD $4.1K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
We have an absolute gold mine tonight with Brannstrom. Both Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun are out for a few weeks each with injuries leaving the defense to Jake Sanderson and Brannstrom. Sanderson will take over the top pairing and power-play unit, while Brannstrom will oversee the second pairing and power-play unit. Both injured defensemen have been in and out of the lineup over the past month giving a glimpse of what Brannstrom can do with extra ice time. In his last five games, he has 1 goal, 2 assists, 1 shot and 7 blocked shots. His shot volume is a concern due to his highlighted offensive abilities entering the draft – drafted by Vegas –, but he is at least making up for it defensively. The Flyers struggled to contain Montreal at home and they will have an even bigger concern in Ottawa – the Flyers have conceded 22 goals in the last five away games –. Brannstrom is the key to unlocking the higher-salary players tonight.
Evan Bouchard- DK $3.9K || FD $4.6K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
We may finally be witnessing the birth of Evan Bouchard! Throughout his last five appearances, he has 2 goals, 3 assists, 10 shots and 5 blocked shots. Bouchard has taken quarterbacking duties for the top power-play in Edmonton since Tyson Barrie was traded to Nashville. However, Bouchard has not seen much success with the elevated role and extra opportunities. Furthermore, he looks to be on the cusp of a breakout if he hasn’t already begun with a 3-point game-streak right now – 2 goals and 2 assists –. The Kings are playing much better offensively, however, their defense is still suspect at times. In an expected fast-paced matchup in Edmonton, expect Bouchard to get his fair share of chances to maintain value here.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Lindholm (DK 5.1K || FD $5.7K), Hague (DK $3K || FD $3.7K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- BOS1
- VGK1
- EDM1
- OTT1
- FLA1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- OTT: DeBrincat-Pinto-Brannstrom
Chalk Stack
- BOS: Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Sneaky Stack
- ANA: Vatrano-Zegras-McTavish
