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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for February 25th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Saturday, 25th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/25/23
The trade market is starting to open up and more and more moves will be made as we get closer to the trade deadline – March 3rd. Be aware of late-minute scratches. Tonight we have an 8-game slate and five teams playing on a back-to-back: Colorado, Ottawa, Carolina, Montreal, and Philadelphia. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Carolina with 4.5, Boston with 4.1, and New Jersey with 3.9 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this eight-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Jonas Johansson- DK $7.7K || FD $8.7K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
Johansson has yet to start for the Avalanche this season, however, he did come in relief in a 6-2 loss to Toronto where he made all seven saves. This season in the AHL though, he has a 0.915 Save Percentage through 23 games which is a big improvement in his career even at the AHL level. Calgary will be a tough matchup for the Avalanche after they won 5-1 in Winnipeg last night. Luckily, the Flames are a high-shot output team, but they struggle to create scoring chances and goals. In what will be a high-event game, Johansson will have every opportunity to reach value.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Ullmark (DK $8.3K || FD $8.9K), Vasilevskiy (DK $8.1K || FD $8.6K)
Centers
Patrice Bergeron-DK $6.6K || FD $7K
Opponent - Vancouver Canucks
There is no shot that Bergeron should still be under $7K on DraftKings. Ever since winger Jake DeBrusk came back from injury, Boston’s top line has been firing on all cylinders. Over Bergeron’s last five games, he has 3 goals, 2 assists, 14 shots, and 6 blocked shots. As stated in previous articles, the Canucks defense over the season is not as bad as many think with them sitting in the middle of the pack in Shots Against Per 60, Scoring Chances Against Per 60, and High Danger Chances Per 60, however, they are the second-worst team in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.2. That is strictly due to poor goaltending and it is expected that Collin Delia will start this match. Delia is the twelfth-worst goalie out of all goalies in the league to start 5 or more matches in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – -0.308. This is plug-and-play.
Sebastian Aho- DK $7.2K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Aho is riding a two-game point streak into a meeting with the league’s worst defense. In that time frame, Aho has 1 goal, 3 assists, and 7 shots. Dating it back to his last five games and he has 2 goals, 4 assists, and 15 shots. It is no surprise that Aho has been producing ever since Andrei Svechnikov jumped to his line – the reason for his two-game point streak –. Throughout the season, the Ducks are the worst defense in every meaningful statistic, Shots Against Per 60 – 38.74 –, Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 35.84 –, High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 16.71 – and Goals Against Per 60 – 3.57 –. This is a great spot for not only Aho to continue his production, but also the rest of the Hurricanes if you need to stack a team.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hischier (DK $6.4K || FD $7.6K), Domi (DK $4.6K || FD $5.8K)
Wings
Dawson Mercer- DK $4K || FD $5K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
Welcome the hottest player in the NHL currently, Dawson Mercer. Mercer started the season strong and then fizzled out to only come back fully swinging here with consistent minutes in the top-six again, albeit a different line. In his last five games, he has 7 goals, 2 assists, 20 shots, and 4 blocked shots. He is currently averaging just a shot per game below the Shot Bonus on DraftKings – 3 or more shots. The Flyers sit in the middle of the pack in any meaningful stat over the season, however, they just got walked on by Montreal last night in a 5-2 loss at home and now they must travel to New Jersey to finish up their back-to-back. This is the perfect spot for Mercer to extend his point streak.
Claude Giroux- DK $5.6K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Giroux has turned form in a big way over his past few games and many would say it has a direct correlation with his move to the top line alongside Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle. Over Giroux’s last five appearances, he has 2 goals, 2 assists, and 16 shots. Those are quality numbers for someone seeing top-line minutes and under $6K on DraftKings. As aforementioned, Montreal just beat the Flyers in Philadelphia last night 5-2 and now they will travel home to host local rivals Ottawa Senators. This should be a high-event game per the norm with Montreal in the bottom ten of the league in both Shots Against Per 60 – 31.59 – and Goals Against Per 60 – 2.41 –, as well as being the third-worst team in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 31.81 – and the second-worst team in High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 13.59. To say the very least, expected starter Sam Montembeault will not have his work cut out for him and Giroux will see plenty of chances here.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marchand (DK $7.1K || FD $7K), Kane (DK $6.4K || FD $7.4K)
Defense
Samuel Girard- DK $4.1K || FD $4.8K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
Girard has been thrown among the doubters of the great white Colorado mountains since his arrival from Nashville and for good reason. The defenseman has done very little in terms of points or peripherals to cement a role with the Avalanche. However, despite his shortcomings, he is still there and getting another quality chance with teammate Cale Makar out in concussion protocol. Girard has been bumped to the top-pairing and he is co-quarterbacking the second power-play unit. Last night, though he put up a dud with just one blocked shot, after putting together a small run of form where he amassed 5 assists, 4 shots, and 4 blocked shots. The meeting with Calgary will be a fast-paced matchup and Girard should be able to get the Blocked Shot bonus on DraftKings – 3 or more blocked shots – and possibly the Shot Bonus as well.
Tyler Myers- DK $2.9K || FD $3.9K
Opponent - Boston Bruins
In the midst of a 16-game point drought, this is nothing but a speculative play at best. Over the last five appearances, Myers has 7 shots and 9 blocked shots. Boston is charging away full stream right now and Myers will be relied on to stop gap the shooting lanes with no Luke Schenn in the lineup. If Myers can at the very least get the Blocked Shot bonus, he will maintain value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hamilton (DK $7.5K || FD $7.8K), S. Jones (DK $5.9K || FD $6.3K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- CAR1
- BOS1
- NJ1
- COL1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- CHI: S. Jones-Domi-Kane
Chalk Stack
- CAR: Svechnikov-Aho-Teravainen
Sneaky Stack
- DET: Bertuzzi-Larkin-Perron
