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Over the next week, RotoBaller analysts will give you a sneak peak into our consensus Premium Tiered Rankings at each position with some in-depth analysis to help you prepare for your drafts. The rest of our tiered rankings can be found in our 2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit & Cheat Sheet.
Tiered Shortstop Rankings Analysis
Tiered rankings are critical for fantasy baseball drafts. Faced with the decision of drafting player X or Y at shortstop, you need to have an idea of how those players stack up against each other. If they are in the same tier, you can wait on the more costly player, and draft the cheaper player instead. Knowing which tiers players are in will help avoid overpaying and also help spend your draft dollars or picks as wisely as possible.
Shortstop is typically one of the shallower talent pools in fantasy baseball. However, in recent years it has been getting deeper as young players establish themselves. 2015 is no exception, as there will be at least 10-15 solid options out there on draft day. This is another position I’d feel comfortable waiting on versus gunning for (and likely overpaying for) one of the top-tier guys. Below I’ll provide a sneak peek into the third tier of RotoBaller’s Premium Tiered Rankings.
*Note: All round estimates are based on 10 or 12-team leagues.
Tier 3 - Solid Starters
These are the players you can wait on and still get decent value from. You’ll be able to pick them up far later in most drafts than the players in the second tier, and still receive similar value.
Jhonny Peralta is a hard player to pin down as far as rankings go, since his numbers tend to fluctuate each year. His batting average for the last four seasons gives you a good idea of what I mean: .299 in 2011, his first All-Star season, then .239 in 2012, .303 in 2013, and .263 in 2014. There’s nothing to be drawn from that “every other year” pattern, as there is no evidence to suggest this will continue—just a weird coincidence. I think he’s a safe bet to hit .270 in 2015. His skill set is untypical for a shortstop, as he lacks any kind of speed but should flirt with 20 homers. You can expect 60 runs/RBIs, making him a great value pick at his current ADP, which should be in the 16th round or later. He’s a serviceable starting shortstop or an excellent middle infield option if you already have one.
Segura broke out in the first half of 2013, hitting .325 and swiping plenty of bags. However, his 2014 season was marred by tragedy, as he lost his son to an illness during the season. I’m willing to attribute his lackluster season to playing with a heavy heart, and I expect him to rebound in 2015. His skill set is more typical of a shortstop, with low power totals, a middling batting average and at least 30 steals. I expect him to provide enough value to justify a pick in the 16th round or so, but I wouldn’t reach any earlier than that, as he’s certainly capable of another down year.
Alexei Ramirez received his first All-Star selection in 2014, and rightfully so. He was in the top three at shortstop from a fantasy standpoint in almost all formats, and at age 33 there should be plenty left in the tank. A model of consistency, Ramirez has played in exactly 158 games in each of the last four seasons, which is the kind of durability you’re looking for in any fantasy player. I expect some regression in 2015, but not much. A .270 average with 12 homers and 20 steals is well within his grasp, and he is poised to be a top seven shortstop once again. Start looking at him in the 9th-10th round.
Javier Baez—blech. If you’re drafting him, it is strictly for the home runs. He has the raw power to crank out 30+ if he’s given a full season, but I don’t know that that will be the case. Last year, he struck out in 42% of his at-bats. No, that is not a typo. Those are astoundingly bad numbers, and if strikeouts count against you in a points league, the homers won’t be anywhere near enough to make up for the lack of contact. He has some speed, but again he won’t be on base enough to utilize it. He could probably benefit from some more time in the minors trying to hone his plate discipline, but the Cubs seem willing to give him a shot to start a full season. The home runs might be useful in a roto league if you’re okay with the dismal batting average that comes with them, but if you’re in a points league, let someone else deal with him.
Elvis Andrus thrives on stolen bases, and subsequently on runs scored. Power is almost nonexistent in his skill set, but he does make decent enough contact to get on base enough to swipe 30 bags. His walk rates leave much to be desired, but that’s something he can improve upon, and I expect him to. The big issue I have with him is his draft day price—in many leagues he’s going as early as the 12th round, which I think is way too high. If he falls to you in the 14th-16th rounds, then he’s a justifiable pick.
With Didi Gregorius now in New York, Chris Owings should be the full-time shortstop in Arizona. He could provide sneaky value this year, particularly considering he isn’t even being drafted in most leagues. Low walk rates and high strikeout rates make him hard to love in the OBP and batting average categories, but he is still young enough where he can improve both. He was a minor-league star, and flashed potential in both power and speed, and I expect both of those skills to become more apparent in 2015 as he adjusts to the major leagues. He should be one of your last picks if you do decide to draft him, but he could be a very nice middle infield option.
JJ Hardy had a peculiar 2014, as his power all but disappeared. Just one year removed from a 25-homer campaign in 2013, he hit only nine last season, and saw his RBI and run totals decrease accordingly. I believe he’ll return to his old ways, and should be able to hit at least 15 bombs this year. However, the batting average probably won’t be any higher than .265, and he has no speed to speak of. He’s been going in the final rounds of most drafts, and that seems appropriate—temper your expectations, but he could be useful enough to justify a middle infield start.
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