Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 5: Top NFL Player Props Bets

October 8, 2022

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 5 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for NFL player props bets.

Thunder Dan here, your friendly neighborhood handicapper! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything!

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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week five of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week's Props: 4-6
• Season-to-Date Props: 13-14

Note: Straight props only, parlays not included

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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Week 5

PASSING/RUSHING/RECEIVING YARDS

Carson Wentz over 237.5 passing yards (-110 DK)

Lost in the two bad yardage totals the last two weeks (211 and 170) were that the number of attempts remained very high (42 and 43). Wentz faced a solid Eagles defense that sacked him a ton and then an elite Dallas pass rush right after that. This week he gets a Tennesee secondary that has allowed 274 yards per game and 350+ to Matt Ryan last week. This number for Wentz is way too low!

Tom Brady under 285.5 passing yards (-120 DK)

Believe it or not, last week was the first time that Brady went over this number and it was mainly due to Tampa having to throw the ball the entire game. Yes, he had some tougher match-ups and fewer weapons earlier in the year, but it’s pretty clear that Tampa doesn’t want to air it out more than they have to, and this week as 10-point home favorites I doubt that they have to.

Damien Harris over 58.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)

Harris splits carries with Stevenson, but I will be targeting both backs a ton in DFS and with props as they get a Detroit team that allowed over 200 yards on the ground last week and has been gashed all season long. With a rookie QB under center, Belichick will feed his backs in this one.

Chris Olave over 63.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

Dallas Goedert over 46.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)

Terry McLaurin over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

I’ll sum up all three of these bets together. Goedert and Olave are in “smash spots” against defenses that have struggled against the pass all season. Arizona is giving up the most points to TE this season and Goedert has the best YAC average in football. Olave leads the NFL in air yards, so rather than going after his reception prop, I am on the yardage.

McLaurin is the riskiest of the three, but I see Washington having a pass-heavy game script again and if you read my WR-CB match-up article you can see that I like his individual match-up, too.

Anytime Touchdowns

A.J. Brown ( +105 DK)

I am going back to Brown here, he had a TD called back last game and is still getting a bunch of red zone targets. The Cardinals are allowing two receiving TDs per game, tied for the third-most in the league.

Adam Thielen (+140 DK)

Did you know Kirk Cousins has the second-most passing attempts (18) inside the 10-yard line? Minnesota isn’t afraid to throw down near the goal line and Thielen has a solid 22% red zone target share. I love these good odds we are getting.

Jamaal Williams (+100 DK)

The Williams haters will point out that he still split snaps with Craig Reynolds and wasn’t a true workhorse last week. But he had two touchdowns against Seattle, one of which was a long run he broke and the other one on fourth down from the one-yard line. He has an incredible 92% of the team’s carries inside the 10, and I think he finds paydirt here again.

Receptions

Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 (-115 DK)

Cooper Kupp over 8.5 (+105 DK)

Stevenson has 4 catches two weeks in a row and has a rookie QB who will likely have some easy throws schemed to his receiving back in this game.

Kupp’s number is big, but I really think it’s a great bet considering his volume and the fact that Dallas's pass rush could force Stafford into a lot of quick throws.

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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