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Baseball bettors, rejoice! We have a full slate of games today on which to wager! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Friday, August 5th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Framber Valdez o4.5K vs. CLE (-150 DK)
Corey Kluber o4.5K vs. DET (-160 DK)
I am lumping these two together for the sake of time. Valdez has been cruising to 5+ now in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Guardians (I almost typed Indians) strike out more against lefties than righties and Valdez pitches deep enough into games (6-7 innings most nights) to get him over the hump.
Kluber is an average K pitcher by all measures but is coming off a solid 10k performance against his old Cleveland club that rarely strikes out. He’s gone six innings now in four of his last five and had 8 strikeouts against the Tigers last time. We should get 5 whiffs here tonight assuming he pitches his usual six innings.
The juice on both of these is high and could keep moving. If you have the odds, just parlay them together.
Eric Lauer o5.5K vs. CIN (+105 DK)
I always want to take a stab at some plus odds, and Lauer is in a great spot as the Reds are whiffing 29% of the time against LHP over their L14. Pham is gone and so is Naquin. This lineup is looking very shaky and while Lauer hasn’t been in great form, we know he has decent strikeout stuff.
Patrick Sandoval o5.5 vs. SEA (+105 DK)
Sandoval was one of “my guys” this season. He hasn’t busted out like I thought he could and is still hampered by a high walk rate, but the guy can still strike out hitters at an above-average rate. He got Seattle six times in the first meeting and gets them without J-Rod here. The danger here is just if he gets run early or walks too many guys and runs up his pitch count, but I still like him to get his.
The “Just Missed List” - close but no cigar!
Robbie Ray, Dylan Cease, and Josiah Gray are all strikeout pitchers in solid spots, but Ray and Cease are both at 7.5 and Gray at 6.5, just a little too rich for my blood and too much juice on Cease at such a high number.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Prop Bets
Pete Alonso o1.5 (-115 DK)
Pete is just mashing the ball right now, with three homers in his last four games. He matches up well here with Ian Anderson, a reverse-splits RHP.
Kyle Schwarber o1.5 (+110 DK)
Schwarber has two dongs off Josiah Gray and when you check his profile, you can see why. He mashes the four-seamer and curveball, which are the two main pitches that Gray throws to lefties. I was surprised he was at plus odds here, with how well-known Gray is for giving up barrels and bombs.
Mookie Betts o1.5 (-110 FD)
Mookie had a great series in San Fran, with two HR and two doubles. His numbers against lefties continue to climb and he has a solid BvP history against Sean Manaea tonight, a guy who relies on his sinker entirely too much.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
NYY/STL OVER 8.5 runs (-105 DK)
Dakota Hudson is simply not a very good starting pitcher. He doesn’t miss bats at all and relies entirely on ground balls. He used to be really tough on righties, but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Yanks should be able to score on him here I think. On the other side, Cortes has been solid for New York, but the Cards are really good against LHP. I think both offenses are too good here for this total to be so low, I have it projected around 10 runs.
TB/DET under 8.5 runs (-110 DK)
We are going back to this game! The total came up a half point, despite the fact that it only ended at 8 last night. Some of those runs last night were unearned, too, with Tampa making two errors in one inning. Kluber has been good and the Garcia kid was surprisingly effective in his first start. The trends continue to tell us to go under with these two teams.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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