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Let me just start by saying thanks for taking a minute to check out my bets and models today! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
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In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Monday, August 15th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Carlos Carrasco o5.5K vs. ATL (-105 FD)
Cookie is in great form and fresh off a dominant outing against the Reds. He got six Bravos the start before that, too, and Acuna could be out again for Atlanta.
Aaron Civale o4.5K vs. DET (-120)
He whiffed four Tigers last time out in only four innings and was on a pitch count coming off the IL. I would expect the pitch count to be gone today, and therefore I would expect 5-6 innings of work from Civale. Detroit has a massive 33% K rate over the last two weeks against righties, I can’t ignore this spot.
Luis Castillo o7.5K vs. LAA (+110)
Castillo has been brilliant in Seattle and has the best match-up on the board today with the Angels. His projection is just over 7.5, but his strong recent form makes me think he can get eight no sweat, he’s had eight in four of his last five.
Julio Urias o6.5K vs. MIL (-135)
Urias was a guy I was avoiding early in the year as he wasn’t pitching deep into games. That’s changed here late in the season, as he’s now gone 6+ in five straight starts. Milwaukee is a great matchup for lefties, and Urias has 7+ in three of his last six.
Watch for: Gerrit Cole - I like Cole over 7.5 today against Tampa at any odds. If it’s 8.5, then I’d want plus odds (+100 or better) to go there, but he’s dominated the Rays this year with 10, 12, and seven strikeouts in three starts.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
Anthony Santander o1.5 TB (+125)
These Orioles look so good against Kikuchi today, and they have some recent results that should encourage us as they knocked him around in their last meeting for three homers. One of those was from Santander, and the other two came from Ramon Urias and Ryan Mountcastle. I like all three guys today, but Mounty could sit with an injury and Urias doesn’t have the same power profile as Santander, who has a .252 ISO against lefties this year despite being a switch-hitter.
Nick Castellanos o1.5 TB (+100)
It’s been a fairly quiet year for Casty since coming over to Philly, but he has picked it up a bit in the second half. He has a .364 average and two career home runs off Minor and a great profile against Minor’s pitch mix. Minor, like Kikuchi, is getting barreled up like crazy this year.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
HOU ML (-125 DK)
The Astros have been great on the road this year (see chart below), while the White Sox have under .500 at home. I’m not a huge Urquidy fan, but I think he’s slightly better than this version of Johnny Cueto and the Houston lineup is significantly better than Chicago’s. I was surprised to see Houston only a slight favorite, and I want to take advantage.
BAL +1.5 (-140 DK)
No team has been better than Baltimore on the run line this year, not even the Dodgers! Baltimore’s strong play has continued even after they traded away Trey Mancini and their closer Jorge Lopez. They might even win outright today, Toronto has been playing rather uninspired and Kikuchi is a disaster on the mound.
PHI/CIN over 9 total runs (-115 DK)
A 9-run total in “Coors East” has me intrigued, especially when my model has this game around 10.5 runs. Mike Minor has been terrible this year and Noah Syndergaard has been incredibly mediocre (at best) even after arriving in Philly. The Reds offense is pesky, and we know the Phillies can load up on righties against Minor. I like all the offense in this one.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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