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Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 15: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

Let me just start by saying thanks for taking a minute to check out my bets and models today! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Monday, August 15th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Carlos Carrasco o5.5K vs. ATL (-105 FD)

Cookie is in great form and fresh off a dominant outing against the Reds. He got six Bravos the start before that, too, and Acuna could be out again for Atlanta.

Aaron Civale o4.5K vs. DET (-120)

He whiffed four Tigers last time out in only four innings and was on a pitch count coming off the IL. I would expect the pitch count to be gone today, and therefore I would expect 5-6 innings of work from Civale. Detroit has a massive 33% K rate over the last two weeks against righties, I can’t ignore this spot.

Luis Castillo o7.5K vs. LAA (+110)

Castillo has been brilliant in Seattle and has the best match-up on the board today with the Angels. His projection is just over 7.5, but his strong recent form makes me think he can get eight no sweat, he’s had eight in four of his last five.

Julio Urias o6.5K vs. MIL (-135)

Urias was a guy I was avoiding early in the year as he wasn’t pitching deep into games. That’s changed here late in the season, as he’s now gone 6+ in five straight starts. Milwaukee is a great matchup for lefties, and Urias has 7+ in three of his last six.

Watch for: Gerrit Cole - I like Cole over 7.5 today against Tampa at any odds. If it’s 8.5, then I’d want plus odds (+100 or better) to go there, but he’s dominated the Rays this year with 10, 12, and seven strikeouts in three starts.

 

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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props

Anthony Santander o1.5 TB (+125)

These Orioles look so good against Kikuchi today, and they have some recent results that should encourage us as they knocked him around in their last meeting for three homers. One of those was from Santander, and the other two came from Ramon Urias and Ryan Mountcastle. I like all three guys today, but Mounty could sit with an injury and Urias doesn’t have the same power profile as Santander, who has a .252 ISO against lefties this year despite being a switch-hitter.

Nick Castellanos o1.5 TB (+100)

It’s been a fairly quiet year for Casty since coming over to Philly, but he has picked it up a bit in the second half. He has a .364 average and two career home runs off Minor and a great profile against Minor’s pitch mix. Minor, like Kikuchi, is getting barreled up like crazy this year.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

HOU ML (-125 DK)

The Astros have been great on the road this year (see chart below), while the White Sox have under .500 at home. I’m not a huge Urquidy fan, but I think he’s slightly better than this version of Johnny Cueto and the Houston lineup is significantly better than Chicago’s. I was surprised to see Houston only a slight favorite, and I want to take advantage.

BAL +1.5 (-140 DK)

No team has been better than Baltimore on the run line this year, not even the Dodgers! Baltimore’s strong play has continued even after they traded away Trey Mancini and their closer Jorge Lopez. They might even win outright today, Toronto has been playing rather uninspired and Kikuchi is a disaster on the mound.

PHI/CIN over 9 total runs (-115 DK)

A 9-run total in “Coors East” has me intrigued, especially when my model has this game around 10.5 runs. Mike Minor has been terrible this year and Noah Syndergaard has been incredibly mediocre (at best) even after arriving in Philly. The Reds offense is pesky, and we know the Phillies can load up on righties against Minor. I like all the offense in this one.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



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ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Carlos Carrasco1 min ago

Roughed Up Tuesday
Zack Wheeler4 mins ago

Christopher Morel Goes Deep Tuesday
Zack Wheeler8 mins ago

Effective In No-Decision
Marcus Stroman12 mins ago

Strong In Win
Bailey Ober16 mins ago

Dazzles In Win
Miles Mikolas21 mins ago

Strikes Out Nine Tuesday
Rowdy Tellez24 mins ago

Hits Homer No. 34
Calvin Petersen5 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day
Cleveland Browns5 hours ago

Myles Garrett Uncertain For Week 4
Jeff Carter5 hours ago

Listed As Day-To-Day
Ilya Mikheyev5 hours ago

Week-To-Week With A Lower-Body Injury
MacKenzie Gore5 hours ago

On Track To Make One Start For Nats
Michael Kopech5 hours ago

Unlikely To Pitch Again This Year
Spencer Knight5 hours ago

Gets Three-Year Extension From Florida
Byron Buxton5 hours ago

Has Successful Surgery Tuesday
Eugenio Suárez6 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Activated And Starting Tuesday
John Tavares6 hours ago

Out For At Least Three Weeks
DJ LeMahieu6 hours ago

Could Return Wednesday
Tim Anderson6 hours ago

Shut Down For The Year
Charlie Blackmon6 hours ago

In The Lineup Tuesday
Brock Boeser6 hours ago

Out For Three To Four Weeks
David Price6 hours ago

Rejoins Dodgers Bullpen
Ryan Jeffers6 hours ago

Twins Activate Ryan Jeffers From Injured List
Nick Castellanos6 hours ago

Back From Injured List
Willson Contreras6 hours ago

Seiya Suzuki Reinstated Tuesday
Lance McCullers Jr.6 hours ago

Scratched, Luis Garcia Starting Tuesday
Jeremy Peña6 hours ago

Jeremy Pena Returns Against Diamondbacks
Andrés Giménez6 hours ago

Andres Gimenez Out Again Tuesday
Tua Tagovailoa9 hours ago

"Will Do Everything He Can" To Play Thursday
Sterling Shepard11 hours ago

Has A Torn ACL
Amon-Ra St. Brown11 hours ago

Doesn't Have Long-Term Injury
Dak Prescott12 hours ago

Targeting Week 5 Return?
Sterling Shepard12 hours ago

Likely Done For The Season
Sterling Shepard24 hours ago

Gets Carted Off On Final Play
Jamal Murray1 day ago

Feels Back To Normal
Kawhi Leonard1 day ago

To Participate In Training Camp
Ivica Zubac1 day ago

Should Be Ready For Training Camp
Zion Williamson1 day ago

Feels Great Heading Into Training Camp
Ben Simmons1 day ago

Cleared For Practice
Marquese Chriss1 day ago

Not Ready For Training Camp
Dak Prescott1 day ago

Not Ruling Out A Return In Week 4
P.J. Tucker1 day ago

Fully Active For Training Camp
Zach LaVine1 day ago

Should Have No Restrictions
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Trent Williams Could Miss 4-6 Weeks
Cleveland Browns1 day ago

Myles Garrett Involved In Car Accident Monday
Los Angeles Chargers1 day ago

Joey Bosa Dealing With Significant Groin Injury
Mac Jones1 day ago

Expected To Miss Multiple Games
Julio Jones1 day ago

Bucs Expect Julio Jones To Return In Week 4
Jaylen Waddle1 day ago

Listed As DNP Monday
Keenan Allen1 day ago

Should Return To Practice This Week
Michael Gallup1 day ago

Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup Inactive Monday Night
Tua Tagovailoa1 day ago

Not In Concussion Protocol
Joe Mixon1 day ago

Good To Go For Week 4
D'Andre Swift1 day ago

Out Until After The Bye?
Dalvin Cook1 day ago

Considered Day-To-Day
Rachaad White1 day ago

Ke'Shawn Vaughn Could See More Work
Dean Wade2 days ago

Agrees To Three-Year Contract Extension
Markelle Fultz2 days ago

Fractures Toe
Keldon Johnson2 days ago

Expects To Be Ready For Regular Season
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Begins Texas Near The Rear
Christopher Bell3 days ago

To The Middle Again For Texas
Alex Bowman3 days ago

Under The Radar A Bit Sunday
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Back On Bubble As Texas Looms
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has To Feel Fortunate For Texas
Austin Cindric3 days ago

On The Bubble To Start Segment Two
Daniel Suarez3 days ago

Familiar With Texas Success
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Starts Ninth From Texas On Sunday
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Loves Intermediate Tracks Like Texas
Austin Dillon3 days ago

Another Chevy Qualifying Strong
Chase Elliott3 days ago

In Solid Spot At Texas
Michael McDowell3 days ago

Not A Surprise At Texas
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Pushes Hard To Start Fourth Sunday
William Byron3 days ago

Starts Third For Texas Race
Joey Logano3 days ago

Nearly Takes Pole At Texas
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

Snares Pole At Texas
CJ McCollum3 days ago

C.J. McCollum Signs Extension With Pelicans
Indiana Pacers3 days ago

Langston Galloway Joins Pacers
Indiana Pacers3 days ago

Norvel Pelle, Justin Anderson Get Training Camp Deals
Golden State Warriors3 days ago

Andre Iguodala Returns To Warriors
Nick Richards4 days ago

Has Impressed Hornets
Jalen Johnson4 days ago

To Get More Minutes
Bogdan Bogdanovic4 days ago

Won't Be Fully Ready For Training Camp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander4 days ago

Could Miss Season Opener
Luguentz Dort4 days ago

Should Be Ready For Training Camp
Patrick Kane5 days ago

Keen To Remain In Chicago
Nicklas Backstrom5 days ago

Believes He Can Play This Season
Nolan Patrick5 days ago

To Miss The Entire 2022-23 Season
Jake Muzzin5 days ago

Misses Start Of Training Camp
Nick Suzuki5 days ago

Out Of Action For A Couple Of Weeks
Gabriel Landeskog5 days ago

Will Miss The Start Of The Season
Kawhi Leonard5 days ago

Will Be Eased Into Action To Begin 2022-23
Andrew Copp6 days ago

Misses Training Camp
Timothy Liljegren6 days ago

Out For At Least Six Weeks
Jason Robertson6 days ago

Misses Start Of Training Camp
Barrett Hayton6 days ago

Inks Two-Year Deal With Coyotes
Mike Smith6 days ago

Fails Physical, Heading To Long-Term Injured Reserve
Nils Lundkvist7 days ago

Traded To Stars
J.T. Miller7 days ago

Signs Long-Term In Vancouver
Tim Stützle7 days ago

Tim Stutzle Staying With Ottawa Long-Term
Kirby Dach7 days ago

And Canadiens Sign Extension
Andre Fili1 week ago

Takes Split Decision In A Very Close Contest
MMA1 week ago

Song Yadong Falls Short In Main Event Due To Massive Cut
Cory Sandhagen1 week ago

Scores Impressive TKO Win
Chidi Njokuani1 week ago

Suffers TKO Loss Saturday
Gregory Rodrigues1 week ago

Earns TKO Victory On Saturday
Bill Algeo1 week ago

Suffers Close Split-Decision Loss
Alen Amedovski1 week ago

Drops Fourth Straight Fight
Joe Pyfer1 week ago

Impresses In UFC Debut With KO/TKO Win
Tanner Boser1 week ago

Drops A Split Decision Saturday
Rodrigo Nascimento1 week ago

Ferreira Secures Close Victory
Marc-Andre Barriault1 week ago

Takes Submission Loss
Anthony Hernandez1 week ago

Earns Another Submission Finish
Chase Elliott2 weeks ago

Has Subpar Qualifying Effort Friday
Kyle Busch2 weeks ago

On The Outside Looking In At Bristol
Tyler Reddick2 weeks ago

Under Heavy Stress At Bristol
William Byron2 weeks ago

On Cruise Control For Bristol
Joey Logano2 weeks ago

Begins 15th At Bristol Motor Speedway
MMA2 weeks ago

Cory Sandhagen In Need Of A Rebound Win
MMA2 weeks ago

Song Yadong Looking For Fourth Straight Win
MMA2 weeks ago

Gregory Rodrigues Set For Saturday's Co-Main Event
MMA2 weeks ago

Chidi Njokuani Looking To Continue Middleweight Run
Bill Algeo2 weeks ago

Looking For Third Straight Victory
Andre Fili2 weeks ago

In Need Of A Win Saturday In Vegas
MMA2 weeks ago

Joe Pyfer Enters As DraftKings' Biggest Favorite Saturday
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Looking To Climb Out Of Recent Hole
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Ferreira Looking For First Win In Two Years

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