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Three 3B Who Will Underperform Their ADP: Rankings Analysis

By Mr.schultz (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

 

Avoid Paying Gold for Coal

I have already discussed three 3B who I believe will outperform their ADPs here. In this segment I want to focus on the guys who won’t live up to expectations and are likely to disappoint fantasy owners in 2015.

Third base should be an area of depth in 2015, so it is essential to not overpay for similar production. Below are three guys who I think won’t live up to the hype come draft day and should be avoided at their current ADP.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out all of RotoBaller's in-depth 2015 fantasy baseball rankings articles including overperformers, underperformers, tiered rankings, dynasty/keeper rankings & lots more ADP rankings analysis to prepare for your drafts. Let's win some leagues!
 

Evan Longoria (ADP: 43.6)

Talk about paying for the name. It’s promising that Longoria has been injury-free the past two years and his 83/22/91 line in 2014 is solid, but his peripheral numbers are all showing signs of decline. His .253 AVG was 18 points off his career mark and he posted career lows in OBP (.320), SLG (.404), wOBA (.316), and ISO (.151).

These are not the statistics fantasy baseball owners want to see from a player they have to use a 5th round pick on. Replacing Wil Myers with Steven Souza (guilty plug: check out my analysis on Souza here) in the lineup will provide some protection, but the cabinet is looking pretty bare for support. I would recommend passing on Longoria this year and grabbing Kyle Seager two rounds later.

 

Chris Davis (ADP: 79.3)

I don’t think I’ll ever understand fantasy owners fascination with the Adam Dunn’s of baseball – all power, no average. If the player provides speed too, fine, but otherwise pass on having an AVG killer. In Davis’s case, fantasy owners are focusing on his 2013 campaign (.286 AVG/53 HR/138 RBI) and banking on a rebound campaign.

The issue is teams started to solve Davis in 2014.  He faced a shift 83% of his ABs, up 31.3% from 2013. One look at his career spray chart below confirms opponents mindset, as the right side of the infield is a black hole.

Chris Davis Spray Chart

At 28, Davis is an unlikely candidate to adjust his pull-heavy swing. Can Davis smack 40 HR? Sure, but don’t expect the average to climb past .240 now that teams have figured him out. Unless your surrounding team has a strong AVG, you should pass on Davis at that ADP.

 

Lonnie Chisenhall (ADP: 229.7)

Chisenhall earned his keep in the first half of 2014, posting a .332/.396/.519 line with 9 HR. He couldn't keep it up in the second half though as he hit a paltry .218 AVG with 18 RBIs and saw his K rate increase 8 points to 23%. For Chisenhall to repeat his first half success he’ll need to maintain that .328 BABIP, which was inflated by a stellar first two months (.446 BABIP).

Further, Chisenhall is likely to begin the year near the bottom of the Indians order, which limits his offensive potential in fantasy. His current ranking reflects the fact he should not be trusted as a mixed league 3B option, but fantasy owners in deeper leagues and AL-only looking to replicate last year’s first half magic should look elsewhere and find this year’s version instead (my guess? Marcus Siemen).

 




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