X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

3 Potential Shortstop Busts For 2023 Fantasy Baseball

oneil cruz fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB prospects

Once upon a time, the shortstop position was comparable to catchers in fantasy baseball in that nobody wanted to roster them, but the rules said you had to. Things couldn't be more different in 2023, as the shortstop position is filled with a blend of established stars and young guns that are literally oozing upside.

Every good fantasy roster will be getting significant contributions from the SS position, which means you cannot afford a bust as your starter in mixed leagues. Nobody rosters busts intentionally, so who should you be avoiding?

This article will provide three names that face significant obstacles to returning value based on their ADP. Let's get started!

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz might have the best package of physical gifts in the MLB today. He is the largest individual ever to man shortstop at the highest level, is the first person other than Giancarlo Stanton to lead the MLB in Max EV last season (122.4 mph), and boasts an elite Statcast Sprint Speed of 29.9 ft./sec. His 97.2 average airborne EV and 15.5% rate of Brls/BBE were also impressive for a 23-year-old.

Unfortunately, Cruz is still extremely raw and lacks the baseball skills to transform his physical gifts into elite fantasy production. While he cracked 17 HR with 10 SB last year, his overall batting line of .233/.294/.450 was lopsided at best. His biggest issue was contact with a 13.7 SwStr% and 34.9 K%. He hit .288 in September, but his 29.8 K% was still too high while an unsustainable .384 BABIP did most of the heavy lifting.

Swing-and-miss is only one of the holes in Cruz's game. His 23.9% HR/FB suggests that Cruz could get a lot from elevating the baseball, but his 34.5 FB% and 16.5 LD% were too low to take full advantage of his power. His xSLG of .410 was 40 points lower than his actual mark of .450 as well, largely because of grounders.

Furthermore, Cruz had a modest 71% success rate on SB attempts for the Pirates last year. That number declines to 68% if you fold in his 11-for-17 effort at Triple-A, meaning that he may not have a green light forever. Scouts also expect him to lose a step due to his sheer size.

Cruz was even in the third percentile for OAA, suggesting his SS defense was subpar despite his rocket arm. That could lead to lost playing time, especially as the new shift rules make teams more aware of infield defense.

Cruz is expected to lead off for Pittsburgh, a role that won't give him many RBI chances even if he figures everything out. He'll also rely on the Pittsburgh offense to drive him in, meaning he may not tally many runs either.

If Cruz can cut down the Ks, add loft to his swing, become a better base thief, improve his defense, and get some help from his teammates, he's a lock to outperform his ADP of 71.29. Those are a lot of big ifs though, and he's being taken too high for a pure upside play. The floor is abysmal.

 

Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts is a brand-name shortstop coming off a .307/.377/.456 triple-slash line with 15 HR and eight SB, so it's no surprise to see his ADP at 86.71. However, there are multiple reasons to be leery of him at that price.

First, Bogaerts has only one season of 25+ HR to his credit and hasn't cracked double-digit SBs since 2017. You shouldn't count on him to reach either benchmark in 2023, meaning that Bogaerts' average will largely determine his fantasy value.

Second, there are three separate indications that Bogaerts will see his average decline. Major projection systems such as ZiPS, Steamer, and THE BAT X all project Bogaerts to hit .270 or below based on age (30) and a .362 BABIP far exceeding his career mark of .336.

Bogaerts is a career .312 hitter at Fenway Park, but his career road average is just .271. Petco Park isn't the hitter's haven Fenway is, so Bogaerts won't be able to pad his fantasy stats with favorable home cooking. He'll also have to contend with the pressure of signing a $280 million contract.

Baseball Savant is the most pessimistic on Bogaerts' prospects, pegging him for an xBA of .259 based on his launch angles and exit velocities last season. All of these sources suggest that Bogaerts won't have an average high enough to carry his value or draft day cost.

Bogaerts is projected to lead off for San Diego, a role likely to suppress his RBI total. He should get a fair number of runs scored with the heart of San Diego's order hitting behind him, but he might not get on base enough to reach the century mark if he's hitting .270. Don't pay a brand name price for store brand production.

 

Javier Baez

What do you get if you combine Cruz's strikeouts with Bogaerts' bland profile? Javy Baez, come on down! Baez was terrible as a Tiger, hitting .238/.278/.393 with 17 HR and nine SB. Optimists may point to dramatically improved plate discipline as evidence of a rebound. His 24.9 K% was by far the best of his career.

It's also a mirage. Baez always had chase rate issues, but last year's 48.7% mark was a career-worst. His 69.1 Z-Swing% was his lowest since 2016, suggesting that Baez had no idea whether any given pitch was a ball or strike. His 18.6 SwStr% was on par with his career 18.4% rate as well, so Baez did nothing to earn that favorable K%.

Meanwhile, his contact quality fell off a cliff. Baez's average airborne EV fell from 95.8 mph in 2021 to 93.3 last season, two and a half ticks. Likewise, his rate of Brls/BBE fell from 13.4% to 8%. The result was a 12.3% HR/FB well off his 19.5% career mark that Baez completely deserved.

The Tigers project as a terrible offense, so Baez will likely struggle to accumulate counting stats even as their third hitter. At an ADP of 165.22, you're passing up on solid arms like Charlie Morton and Pablo Lopez, reliable power from Rowdy Tellez, and upside plays like Ke'Bryan Hayes. Nothing in Baez's profile suggests you should do so.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

O.J. Howard7 mins ago

Raiders Hosting O.J. Howard For A Visit
DJ Chark13 mins ago

Panthers Still Talking With DJ Chark
Trent Sherfield18 mins ago

Bills Sign Trent Sherfield To One-Year Deal
Zach Pascal24 mins ago

Cardinals Agree With Zach Pascal On Two-Year Deal
Casey O'Neill34 mins ago

Takes First Defeat Against Former Champion
Jennifer Maia38 mins ago

Earns Decision Win Over Undefeated Opponent
Roman Dolidze40 mins ago

Suffers Setback With Decision Loss
Marvin Vettori48 mins ago

Picks Up Decision Win
Jhon Romero2 hours ago

Guardians Sign Jhon Romero To Minor-League Deal
Yu Chang2 hours ago

Held Up By Visa Issues
Brayan Bello2 hours ago

Looks Good In Spring Debut
Eury Perez2 hours ago

Reassigned To Minor-League Camp
Michael Soroka2 hours ago

To Make Spring Debut Wednesday
Matt Vierling2 hours ago

Playing Monday Against Blue Jays
Michael Lorenzen2 hours ago

Scratched With Groin Tightness
Kyle Busch2 hours ago

Finishes In Top 10 At Atlanta
Justin Turner2 hours ago

Back In Spring Lineup Monday
Ty Gibbs3 hours ago

Finishes Strong In Atlanta
Erik Jones3 hours ago

Gets His First Top-10 Finish Of The Season
Ryan Blaney4 hours ago

Bounces Back From Speeding Penalty
Denny Hamlin4 hours ago

Has A Strong Showing
Austin Reaves4 hours ago

Becomes Unlikely Hero Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo4 hours ago

Picks Up A Triple-Double Sunday
Jalen Green4 hours ago

Scores Game-High 40 Points Sunday
Jimmy Butler4 hours ago

Gets A Double-Double With Assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander4 hours ago

Drops 40 Points On Phoenix
Jacob deGrom5 hours ago

Looks Impressive In Spring Debut
Devin Booker5 hours ago

Goes Off For 46 Points
Nikola Jokic5 hours ago

Returns To Triple-Double Form
Jake Fraley5 hours ago

Should Be Fine After Fouling Ball Off Leg
Jesper Bratt5 hours ago

Hits A Hat Trick Against Tampa Bay
K'Andre Miller5 hours ago

Racks Up Four First-Period Points
Nolan Arenado5 hours ago

Expected To Be Fine After HBP
Jaroslav Halak5 hours ago

Keeps Predators Quiet With 22 Saves
Austin Nola5 hours ago

May Have Broken Nose In Cactus League Game
Alex Pietrangelo5 hours ago

Hands Out Four Assists
Jack Eichel5 hours ago

Nets A Hat Trick In Big Win
Matthew Boldy5 hours ago

Extends Points Streak With A Hat Trick
Jhoan Duran6 hours ago

Suffers Leg Contusion On Sunday
Jake DeBrusk6 hours ago

Erupts For Four Points Sunday
Jeremy Swayman6 hours ago

Registers Another Shutout
Tyler Reddick7 hours ago

Hangs in For Fifth Place At Atlanta
Juan Soto8 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Mild Oblique Strain
Corey Lajoie15 hours ago

Corey LaJoie Uses Course To Advantage On Sunday
Christopher Bell15 hours ago

Ends Up With Another Top Five Result
Naz Reid16 hours ago

Is Questionable On Monday
Christopher Bell16 hours ago

Brad Keselowski Noses Christopher Bell Out For Second
Bennedict Mathurin16 hours ago

Questionable To Make Return On Monday
Joey Logano16 hours ago

Goes From Pole To Win Sunday
Kevin Huerter16 hours ago

Uncertain For Monday's Game Against Utah
Kevon Looney16 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Rudy Gobert16 hours ago

Receives Questionable Tag For Monday
Jalen Duren16 hours ago

Exits In Third Quarter Against Miami
Detroit Lions16 hours ago

C.J. Gardner-Johnson On The Move To Detroit
Scottie Barnes16 hours ago

Exits On Sunday With Wrist Injury
Courtland Sutton16 hours ago

Broncos Unwilling To Deal Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy
Dallas Cowboys17 hours ago

Travin Howard To Visit The Cowboys On Monday
Ronald Jones17 hours ago

Cowboys To Host Ronald Jones On Monday
Adam Thielen17 hours ago

Agrees To Deal With Carolina
P.J. Tucker19 hours ago

Questionable For Monday
Anthony Edwards20 hours ago

Questionable Versus Knicks
Jaren Jackson20 hours ago

Jr. Questionable For Monday
Lauri Markkanen20 hours ago

Questionable Monday With Back Injury
Kyrie Irving20 hours ago

Questionable To Play Monday
Luka Doncic20 hours ago

Listed As Questionable To Play Monday
Ja Morant20 hours ago

Will Remain Out Monday Versus Dallas
Tampa Bay Buccaneers22 hours ago

Greg Gaines Joins Buccaneers
New York Jets22 hours ago

Ben Jones Drawing Interest From Jets?
Houston Texans22 hours ago

Laremy Tunsil Gets Extension
Brandin Cooks22 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Andrew Vaughn22 hours ago

Took Grounders On Sunday
Seiya Suzuki22 hours ago

Continues Making Progress
Max Kepler22 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Brandon Pfaadt23 hours ago

Reassigned To Minors
Glenn Otto23 hours ago

To Undergo MRI
Ricky Tiedemann23 hours ago

Throws On Saturday
Jurickson Profar23 hours ago

Signs With Rockies
Roope Hintz1 day ago

Delivers Three Assists
Brandon Hagel1 day ago

Celebrates A Hat Trick Against Montreal
Igor Shesterkin1 day ago

Shuts Out The Penguins
Sebastian Aho1 day ago

Completes A Hat Trick In Overtime
Evander Kane1 day ago

Pots A Hat Trick Versus Seattle
Brad Marchand1 day ago

Tallies Three Assists Saturday
Nathan MacKinnon1 day ago

Has Three Points Against Detroit
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Starts 23rd
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Starts 24th At The AmBetter Health 400
AJ Allmendinger2 days ago

Eyes Another Strong Finish
NASCAR2 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Eyes Back-To-Back Superspeedway Wins
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

May Be Overlooked
Erik Jones2 days ago

Is A Value Play At Atlanta
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Seeks Better Results
Noah Gragson2 days ago

Might Surprise At Atlanta Motor Speedway
Austin Dillon2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Atlanta
Ty Dillon2 days ago

Hoping To Keep Car Running At Atlanta
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Isaac Seumalo Signs Three-Year Deal With Steelers
NASCAR2 days ago

J.J. Yeley Starts 34th Sunday At Ambetter Health 400
Blaine Gabbert2 days ago

Stops In Vegas For A Visit
Foster Moreau2 days ago

Visits With Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars2 days ago

Adam Gotsis Staying In Jacksonville
Roman Josi2 days ago

Exits With Injury Saturday
Joonas Korpisalo2 days ago

Hopes To Stay Perfect With His New Team
Mads Sogaard2 days ago

Looking For Form Against Toronto
Brian Elliott2 days ago

Starts For Tampa On Saturday
Jonathan Drouin2 days ago

Will Play Saturday
Mark Giordano2 days ago

Rested On Saturday
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Denies $20 Million Price Tag
Miami Dolphins2 days ago

Malik Reed Heading To Miami
Cincinnati Bengals3 days ago

Nick Scott Agrees To Contract With Cincinnati
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

Kevin Byard Refuses Pay Cut
Kamaru Usman3 days ago

Seeking Second Title Run
Leon Edwards3 days ago

Looks To Defend Crown On Saturday
Rafael Fiziev4 days ago

Earns Huge Co-Main-Event Showdown
Justin Gaethje4 days ago

Set For Another Co-Main-Event Showdown
Jordan Spieth5 days ago

Trying To Pay Off Recent Form With A Win
Victor Perez5 days ago

Making A Rare Start On The PGA Tour
Maverick McNealy5 days ago

Still Shaking Off The Rust In Florida
Mark Hubbard5 days ago

Coming Off Strong Players Championship Result
Nate Lashley5 days ago

Finding Some Form To Start 2023
Wyndham Clark5 days ago

A Dangerous Name At The Valspar Championship
Justin Lower5 days ago

Looking To Capitalize On Weaker Field
Byeong-Hun An5 days ago

Flashing Vintage Form
Stewart Cink5 days ago

Looks To Stay Afloat At Valspar
Ben Taylor5 days ago

A Short-Game Wizard
Gary Woodland5 days ago

Has A Poisoned Putter
Martin Laird5 days ago

Playing Scared
Russell Knox5 days ago

Putting Putridly
PGA5 days ago

Adam Hadwin Looks To Continue Valspar Success
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Hopes To Get Putter Going At Valspar
Keegan Bradley5 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valspar
Eric Cole5 days ago

Continues To Play Well
Matthew NeSmith5 days ago

Could Be Considered At Valspar
PGA5 days ago

J.T. Poston Not An Option At Valspar Championship
Davis Riley5 days ago

Overvalued At Valspar Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick5 days ago

Has Risk At Valspar
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF