RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! I am Brandon Wampler and I have been playing Tennis DFS since the beginning! I hope you caught my Harris upset pick here at RotoBaller yesterday and that you had some success navigating a much more friendly Day 2 of the Open as it was much smoother than Day 1.
Today we will continue chipping away at the US Open with a more mellow 32-match slate. Please keep in mind that during majors there will be big upsets and crazy 6/6 lineups. It is encouraged to think outside the box during these tournaments, but not too much. All ATP matches are set to a Best-Of-5 and all WTA matches are set to a Best-Of-3. After the crazy first two days of the US Open with upsets left and right, that theme should continue into Day 3 as well.
In this article, you will find my favorite high-priced, mid-tier, and cheap plays for the DraftKings DFS Tennis slate on Wednesday, September 01, 2021. Without any further ado, let's get into the picks!
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High Priced DFS Tennis Picks ($10K+)
Dominik Koepfer DK: $3,800 vs Daniil Medvedev(2) DK: $11,200
This matchup is very similar to that of the Rublev match on yesterday’s slate. However, the difference between the two is that Medvedev is one of the heaviest favorites to win the entire US Open. Medvedev not only boasts one of the best serves on the slate, but also one of the best return games as well. If you do any handicap betting I would look for anything at -6.5 games or better in favor of Medvedev. Do not be afraid to play him in your cash lineups either. He is one of the “locks” of the slate.
Expected Outcome: Medvedev 3-0
Mid-Tier DFS Tennis Picks ($8K-$10K)
Francis Tiafoe DK:$9,200 vs Guido Pella DK:$5,700
This is once again a great spot at a rather cheap price for the excellent matchup. Tiafoe comes into the US Open with rollercoaster form over the season, however, that does not matter here. The American is playing on his favorite surface against a clay specialist who has struggled on hard court thus far. Pella also possesses one of the worst Ace Against at a solid 13.2%. Tiafoe may not be a strong server, but he should be able to comfortably win this match.
Expected Outcome: Tiafoe 3-0
Cori Gauff DK:$8,500 vs Sloan Stephens DK:$6,100
With every other matchup in this range a toss-up, this particular one is the best we have and by a mile. Cori “Coco” Gauff continues to shine in her first years on the WTA tour and she gets a juicy matchup in Round 2 of the US Open. Sloan Stephens has been anything but spectacular and after going on quite the run a few years back, she has continued her downward spiral. Not only is she 50% on hard courts for the season, but also in her last 10. Meanwhile, Gauff has won 7 of her last 10 and she is beyond successful on hard court. It will be amazing if Stephens can put up a fight here.
Expected Outcome: Gauff 2-0
Cheap Favorites ($7K-$8K)
Marketa Vondrousova DK:$7,400 vs Darya Kasatkina DK:$7,200
This slate is full of toss-ups and this range continues the trend. We will take a look at the young duo of Vondrousova and Kasatkina who have been off and on lately. This is the lowest either have been in terms of salary in a long time and it is for good reason. Both WTA players are fantastic at what they do and they both play a similar game. They also both have great form in their last 10 and over the season on hard court. The reason Vondrousova edges Kasatkina is because of their recent matches. Kasatkina has won 2 of her last 4. The two matches she won though were against lesser talents compared to Vondrousova. Vondrousova also has the same record in her last 4, but her two losses were against stiff competition. No matter what, this will be a tough matchup and it should be one of the more entertaining ones to watch.
Expected Outcome: Vondrousova 2-1
The Dog House (Underdog Values)
Carlos Alcaraz DK:$9,000 vs Arthur Rinderknech DK:$5,800
I am pretty baffled by the price difference in this matchup. Furthermore, there is quite a discrepancy in the markets too with a -350 in favor of Alcaraz and a -4.5 handicap. If you look at the last 10 history they are equal in form and pretty good at that. Alcaraz may have more experience on hard court too, but that stat misconstrues the analysis most of the time. When you break the matchup down by stats, Rinderknech has two of the most important stat lines in the game, Break Points and serving.
The Frenchman comes into the slate with one of the best aces for at 15.8% and he dominates the Break Points over Alcaraz as well. If anyone watched the Anderson vs Vesely match in Round 1, you will remember that it is all about the serve for the most part and then next is Break Points. Otherwise, Anderson would have never won that match. The same story applies here and Rinderknech should be one of the top upsets on the slate. Don’t forget to hammer those lines in favor of him as well on the betting side.
Expected Outcome: Rinderknech 3-1
Roberto Bautista Agut(18) DK:$8,200 vs Emil Ruusuvuori DK:$6,400
This matchup will be much closer than the market thinks. Ruusuvuori by far has the better form and he also has the Break Point game down to a tee. It also doesn’t help that Bautista Agut supports a mediocre 12.1% Aces Against. That is rather surprising for someone who relies on their receive game so much. Neither is great at serving, but if Ruusuvuori can keep up his return game and patience, he should have no problem pulling off the win.
Expected Outcome: Russuvuori 3-2
ATP Rankings (All Rankings are adjusted by stats, form, and history; Worst 0 - 20 Best)
Medvedev-20
Rublev-20
Ruud-20
Tsitsipas-15
Auger Aliassime-14.5
Tiafoe-14
Nakashima-13.5
Trungelliti-8.5
Kohlschreiber-8.5
Gojowczyk-8.5
Evans-8
Ruusuvuori-8
Schwartzman-8
Rinderknech-3.5
Dimitrov-3
Laaksonen-3
WTA Rankings (All Rankings are adjusted by stats, form, and history; Worst 0 - 20 Best)
Krejcikova-20
Sabalenka-19
Halep-18.5
Kerber-18.5
Osaka-18.5
Collins-15
Svitolina-14.5
Muguruza-14.5
Gauff-14.5
Mertens-14
Azarenka-13.5
Jabeur-13.5
Alexandrova-10
Rybakina-10
Vondrousova-9
Kanepi-3.5
Thanks for reading The First Serve! Good luck in all of your contests today! If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions
