X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

The Deepest Dive - QB Sleepers in 16+ Team Leagues

sam darnold fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Antonio Losada evaluates ADP data related to deep fantasy football leagues and comes up with a few quarterbacks that can become valuable QB sleepers in 16-plus team leagues and formats.

Can you name every fantasy league you played in last season? Probably not. But can you think of their average structure? The most probable question is yes because most leagues are often comprised of eight to 12 teams with 15 roster spots each and use the now-standard PPR format of scoring. That is not always the case, though, and some fantasy GMs engage in way deeper leagues yearly in order to have a tougher challenge on their hands.

Fantasy leagues can be as large as the commish wants them to be, but for our purposes, we're going to define a deep league as one in which at least 16 teams take part. That means each draft round would consist of 16 picks and there would be 240 (15 rounds multiplied by 16 teams) players drafted overall. So for this exercise, I will be looking at players with ADP over 240 using a dataset comprised of drafts based on leagues with such structure. The data comes from PPR-format leagues, and whenever I mention stats, projections, and fantasy points, those would all be spoken of on the basis of that format.

Here is a look at a few quarterbacks that can be considered sleepers in super deep, 16+ team leagues. Keep an eye on them and track their presence on the draft board as they can become interesting pieces down the road during the development of the 2022 season!

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

QB Sleepers Worth Drafting in Super Deep (+16 Teams) Leagues

Drew Lock, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 293

As I'm writing this and as we're about to hit the second half of June, Drew Lock is most definitely the surest thing to be out there leading an NFL franchise when the balls start flying come Week 1 next September--at least among those men name-dropped here and viable in super-deep-league drafts. I know what you're thinking: "ah, here we go again, this analyst is just another one of the crazy bunch," and hey, I don't judge you. But remember, we're talking about really deep, underworld-ADP players here, folks, and some 293rd pick is definitely going to lose you the league... but could turn into a league-winning asset if things go his way.

It'd been three years of pro football for Lock in Denver before he was traded to Seattle as part of the Russell Wilson deal earlier this offseason. Of course, it's not that "three years" actually means "three years" here. Lock only started five games as a rookie and he's coming off a six-game/three-start season in 2021 while playing with a clear QB2 tag attached to his name. Now, looking at Lock's only starting season as a quarterback (13 games in 2020), things weren't that bad for him nor the Broncos in the fantasy realm.

Back in 2020, Lock attempted 443 passes while completing 57.3% of them (254) over those games, racking up 2,933 yards through the air and finishing with a positive TD:INT ratio of 16-to-15 and a touchdown share of 3.6% (around 27 pass attempts per TD). Even though he missed three games entirely, Lock was good for a QB23 (low-end QB2) finish, more than a palatable rank for a super deep league/2QB-format option. Lock threw for more yards than Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton while starting two fewer games than them and fell just nine yards short of Drew Brees' mark. Lock also added three TDs on the ground, carrying the ball 44 times for 160 rushing yards.

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 290) 

Whether Darnold starts the season as Carolina's QB1 is yet to be known and we might have to wait until three or four days before the first Sunday of the season to know for sure. That said, what are the alternatives the Panthers are working with that are already on their roster? Matt Corral? I wish (!) but that doesn't feel like something realistic at this point. Darnold only surrendered one start to someone not named Cam Newton last season, and Newton got just five such games under his belt before the Panthers realized he was, well, not OG Cam Newton anymore.

It looks like Darnold will be the one throwing the rock more often than not in Carolina next season barring a trade for someone a la Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield, but we'll see how those negotiations or dreamy trades go... As far as we're concerned and with the depth charts in place, though, Darnold looks like a keeper staying put on the Panthers' helm for another 10-month run. Darnold, by the way, isn't an atrocious quarterback. Of course, you're not getting Aaron Rodgers in Sam Darnold, but you're also not getting Aaron Rodgers with an ADP of 290.

Darnold is entering his fifth season as a pro and a contract year too, so odds are he at least attempts to do whatever it takes to remain on the field playing his best football and guaranteeing himself a deal somewhere next offseason. Darnold, mind you, has scored at least 11.2 FPPG in all four prior years topping at 14.6 in 2019 and getting to 13.1 last year in Carolina. He's thrown 9+ TDs in all four seasons while never starting more than 13 games while reaching 2,208+ yards all of those seasons. On a 17-game basis, that'd have Darnold at a baseline of around 350+ completions for 3,600+ passing yards and 13+ TDs. On a pure fantasy football basis: someone in the 20-to-24 clip in QB ranks, or a low-end QB2 worth drafting in most 2QB/deep leagues.

Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 258) 

I'm torn about Trubisky. I've been preaching Mitch's word for long this spring and summer because, all things considered, it feels like Pittsburgh should undoubtedly hand him the reins of the franchise come Week 1. The Steelers signed him to a multi-year deal, Trubisky is still young, and Pittsburgh doesn't have many more options outside of the veteran barring a surprising start by the rookie and first-round draftee Kenny Pickett. That, of course, always felt like a long shot... but is it now?

I still think this is Trubisky's starting position to lose more than anything, don't get me wrong. But whispers are there are growing louder when it comes to Pickett's readiness and that has me concerned because, you know, where there's smoke there usually is fire. The consensus opinion (and I'm included there) has Pickett as Pittsburgh's QB2 over Mason Rudolph and below Mitch-T. If that's the case, then I'm 100% positive Trubisky will turn into a bargain of a draftee and a bona fide fantasy asset and value in 2021.

Trubisky surely had a rough four-season run in Chicago, yes, but he was far from the player he's gotten to be known as, honestly. Trubisky finished his four seasons there as the QB28, QB15, QB26, and QB28 while starting 12, 14, 15, and nine games, respectively. In other words, he was never truly given the time to settle properly nor was an offense built around his skill set. Trubisky still averaged 18.8 FPPG (!) in 2018 and 15.4 FPPG as recently as 2020 when he started nine games. The interceptions have stayed on the 7-to-12 clip (not low) but the touchdowns have been great, topping at 24 in his best season (2018) which is not a joke. You give Trubisky games, reps, a proper receiving corps, and a chance, and you bet he'll deliver above expectations (because they're so freaking low, too). Extraordinary under-the-radar player with an extraordinary chance at shutting some mouths as a starter after his one-year sabbatical in Buffalo.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Bo Bichette

Out Again on Tuesday
Trent Grisham

Likely Heading to Injured List
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Royce Lewis

Twins Activate Royce Lewis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
Corbin Carroll

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
Yordan Alvarez

Could Return Early Next Week
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Kerry Carpenter

Shelved with Hamstring Issue
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Waived By Milwaukee
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Andrei Kuzmenko

Signs Up for One More Year with Kings
Morgan Geekie

Signs Long-Term Extension with Bruins
Ivan Provorov

Stays in Columbus on Seven-Year Deal
Alex Pietrangelo

Stepping Away From Golden Knights for Health Reasons
Matias Maccelli

Maple Leafs Bring in Matias Maccelli
Evan Bouchard

Inks $42 Million Contract with Oilers
Vladimir Tarasenko

Wild Acquire Vladimir Tarasenko From Detroit
Patrick Kane

Signs New One-Year Deal with Red Wings
Brad Marchand

Lands Six-Year Extension
Aaron Ekblad

Remains a Panther on Eight-Year Deal
Mitchell Marner

Heads to Vegas
Randy Arozarena

Homers Twice, Plates Four Monday
Shea Langeliers

Hits Three-Run Homer In Return From Injured List Monday
Wilyer Abreu

Belts Grand Slam and Hits Inside-the-Park Home Run
Philadelphia 76ers

Trendon Watford Lands in Philadelphia
New York Knicks

Jordan Clarkson Expected to Sign With Knicks
Zack Wheeler

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings, Punches Out 10
Santi Aldama

Remains with Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Lands in Atlanta
George Springer

Exits Early Monday With Neck Injury
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Clippers

Brook Lopez Strikes Deal With Clippers
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Hunter Goodman

Likely Headed to Injured List
Chicago Bulls

Tre Jones Remaining in Chicago
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Houston Rockets

Dorian Finney-Smith Signing With Rockets
Trent Grisham

Exits With Hamstring Tightness
Atlanta Hawks

Caris LeVert Joining Pistons
Matt Chapman

Could Return for Start of Giants Homestand
Wyatt Langford

Expected to Return on Saturday
Yanquiel Fernández

Yanquiel Fernandez Called Up to Majors
Tyler Mahle

Dealing With Rotator-Cuff Strain
Austin Wells

to Miss Next Two Games
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF