RADIO
Week One is officially in the books. After an excruciatingly long summer, NFL football is finally back. As glorious as the Sundays are – and they are magnificent, make no mistake about that – the new week brings some painstaking decisions. Fantasy managers looking up and down their lineup are often left with impossible choices. Like streaming through Netflix trying to find the next show or movie to watch and next thing you know, 45 minutes have passed and you decide it's much too late to start a new show now.
Much like picking a new show, deciding who to cut is an incredibly important decision. Pick a bad show and you can waste 8–10 hours of your life you'll never get back. Worse yet, you'll have to commit another 2–3 hours just to find out how the damn show you're not at all interested in actually ends. The decision on who to cut has even worse consequences. Cutting a player and watching them go off on waivers – or worse, on someone else's roster – is one of the most horrific fantasy football nightmares there is.
Here, we'll be looking at each position and highlighting certain players you can safely cut without having to worry about that guy ruining your sleep for the rest of the fantasy football season. There are some ground rules, the following players can safely be cut in a 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, and 1 TE 12-team league. We'll be assuming half-PPR scoring and only looking at players who are at least 45% rostered in either ESPN or Yahoo! leagues. If there are any specific adjustments, such as a 10-team or bigger league, those things will be identified. With that, let's ride! Man... even typing that sounds extremely lame. I apologize to any Bronco fans out there, but it's true.
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Quarterbacks to Drop for Week 2?
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
56.8% Rostered on ESPN & 62% Rostered on Yahoo!
Week One always makes for the most difficult "Cut List" article because there's just not a lot of information yet. Week One may be the start of a trend or a complete fluke. There are certainly underlying identifiers that can help us decipher between the two, but we're still making decisions off a limited sample size, which can be dangerous.
There are plenty of reasons to give Trevor Lawrence a pass here. At this time, there's no reason to beat the dead horse of Urban Meyer, but this is really his first real shot in the NFL.
On top of working with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and learning a new offense, he's also working with an almost brand-new group of receivers. If you want to give him a pass, there are plenty of reasons to do so.
That said, he's currently QB21 with Russell Wilson and Geno Smith left to play as of this writing and this was despite throwing the ball 42 times, which was the fourth-most in the NFL. Not only that, but the Jaguars played the Commanders who gave up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season.
It was a mouth-watering matchup. The passing volume was there. He has an upgraded coaching staff and upgraded pass-catching weapons. And the matchup was oh, so good!
All he gave fantasy managers was 16.15 fantasy points. In a 1QB league, Lawrence better be your backup and as long as that's what he is, he can safely be cut. If he's starting for you, you have much bigger issues.
Running Backs to Drop for Week 2?
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
75.9% Rostered on ESPN & 67% Rostered on Yahoo!
This isn't because of the fumble. This is because of what happened after the fumble. Fantasy managers were expecting James Cook to walk into the Bills' offense and immediately become a fixture in the passing game and that was never realistic.
The Bills have never targeted their running backs very much under Josh Allen and while there might be some optimism with a change at offensive coordinator for Buffalo, that target distribution might change. That could be true, but the Bills are an absolutely win-now ball club and their engine is quarterback, Josh Allen.
Being a good receiver won't get you on the field – being a good pass-protector will. That's a big ask for any rookie running back and the Bills simply don't have time for the growing pains.
Cook will be fine. He's an extremely talented player and he'll eventually work himself into a role in this offense. What that will look like exactly is unknown, but what we know now is this is a running back committee. Devin Singletary played 34 snaps and Zack Moss played 22.
While that looks like a decent lead for Singletary, their utilization was much more similar than the snap count suggests. Singletary ran 18 routes to Moss's 14 and the carries were 8–6, in favor of Singletary.
#Bills Week 1 RB usage
- Devin Singletary: 60% snaps, 8 carries, 2 targets (62 yds)
- Zack Moss: 37% snaps, 6 carries, 6 targets (36 yds)
- James Cook: 5% snaps, 1 touch, 1 fumbleJosh Allen led the Bills in carries (10) rushing yards (56) and TDs (1)
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 9, 2022
The one area fantasy managers were excited about with Cook was his pass-catching ability and he ran zero routes. Cook has just so much to overcome in order to obtain fantasy relevance this season.
While he'll certainly have a role, eventually, it's unknown how long his fumble will keep him in the doghouse. It's unknown how long it'll be before they trust him in pass protection.
It's highly unlikely he'll get any goal-line touches with Josh Allen and Devin Singletary on the roster. There are just so many unknowns and uphill battles where fantasy managers can rationalize cutting bait.
Wide Receivers to Drop for Week 2?
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs
73.5% on ESPN & 48% on Yahoo!
This one may feel premature, but it really shouldn't. Fantasy managers, for some unknown reason, thought that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes could do something with Marquez Valdes-Scantling that Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers couldn't.
There has been absolutely nothing in MVS's first four seasons in the NFL that illustrates his ability to be a fantasy-relevant player. Even if we took his best per-game averages from his four seasons in Green Bay, we'd be left wanting. Just how bad would it look?
He averaged five targets per game in 2021, 2.38 receptions in 2018, and 43.1 yards in 2020. Those averages would result in 85 targets, 40 catches, and 733 yards across 17-games. That would be his very best in four seasons, two while playing with the MVP at quarterback.
He’s finished as the WR77 in 2018 in half-PPR PPG, the WR92 in 2019, WR63 in 2020, and WR68 in 2021. There was this misplaced argument that there is less target competition in Kansas City than there was in Green Bay, but that never really made much sense.
We can't downplay how big of a target hog Davante Adams was, but what is Travis Kelce, chop liver? He's had 150, 136, 145, and 134 targets the past four seasons and that was with Tyreek Hill in town.
I understand JuJu Smith-Schuster is an easy guy to make fun of because of his low yard per reception averages the past few years in Pittsburgh, but in the only two seasons, excluding his rookie year where he played 16 games, Smith-Schuster had 166 and 128 targets. He's shown the ability to earn targets, a skill MVS has never even remotely displayed.
A Week One victory in Kansas City did nothing to change that narrative. Valdes-Scantling had a 10.2% target share. He was tied for fourth in targets with backup running back Jerrick McKinnon.
MVS is a good role player for real-life football because he's a good blocker and threatens defenses down the field, but neither of those skills translates to fantasy success.
He'll have some big games, but they'll most likely come on your bench because predicting when he catches a 65-yard touchdown pass is completely random. Drop him and pick up someone you might actually feel comfortable starting.
Tight Ends to Drop for Week 2?
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
76.4% Rostered on ESPN & 42% on Yahoo!
There were plenty of reasons to be concerned about Mike Gesicki heading into the 2022 season and all of those concerns played out in their Week One victory over the Patriots.
With the acquisition of Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, and Cedrick Wilson Jr., Gesicki was all of a sudden met with a lot more target competition. That wasn't the only concern, however.
Throughout the offseason, there were rumors the Dolphins were taking trade calls on Gesicki because of his inability to block well, which in new head coach Mike McDaniel's system is a needed skill set. That never materialized, but that did nothing to eliminate the concerns.
As expected, Mike Gesicki a non-factor in Mike McDaniel offense. Only 16 routes run on 37 Tua Tagovailoa dropbacks.
Gesicki saw one target for a 3% share.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 12, 2022
Those numbers above are scary. Forget about the target share – for now anyways. I want you to focus on his route participation. For receivers, target share is extremely for fantasy football.
For tight ends, we can even take that one step further – route participation. Most tight ends aren't going to earn a Travis Kelce-like target share. That doesn't mean they need to be dropped. That's the nature of the beast that is fantasy football tight end. But if they're not running routes, that's extremely concerning. In fact, it's a death sentence.
Despite getting slapped with the franchise tag this offseason, Gesicki ran a route on just 43% of Tua Tagovailoa's dropbacks. That is disgusting. There's absolutely no reason to continue rostering Gesicki.
He's going to be, at best, the No. 3 target behind Hill and Jaylen Waddle, which will make it difficult, borderline impossible, to replicate last year's fantasy season, but with that route participation, the dream is all but dead.
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
55.3% Rostered on ESPN & 19% on Yahoo!
The Monday Night game is not even over as of this writing and I still feel confident advocating for fantasy managers to drop Noah Fant. The score is currently 17–13 entering the fourth quarter and Fant has three targets on Geno Smith's 25 pass attempts.
Smith has completed 21 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns. It's a solid stat line for Smith. Fant has a 12% target share. What's even worse is that Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, the two other tight ends on the Seahawks' roster, also have two targets apiece.
Seahawks halftime TE snap counts, with all 3 TEs with double-digit snaps pic.twitter.com/wvXj2yhIOC
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 13, 2022
Fantasy managers are looking at a tight end by committee approach on a low-volume passing offense with a mediocre quarterback that also employs two insanely talented receivers.
At halftime, Dissly had actually run more routes than Fant and both, Dissly and Parkinson, had found the end zone. If you want a worthwhile fantasy football tight end, you need one of two things.
The first is a high number of targets. The second is an explosive offense with high passing volume where they have a good chance of getting lucky with a high rate of touchdowns. Fant will certainly not have a high number of targets. He will also definitely not have the second.
On the Hot Seat
J.D. McKissic, Washington Commanders
49.3% on ESPN & 28% on Yahoo!
J.D. McKissic has been a flex play the past few years as the Commanders have used him heavily in the passing game. He averaged 4.82 targets per game in 2021 and 6.88 targets per game in 2020.
In both years he chipped in 4–5 carries per game. In full-PPR leagues, he was a useful asset as a flex player or as a Zero-RB candidate. The same thought process was used entering this new year.
After a terrible tragedy involving rookie Brian Robinson, there was even more optimism about McKissic because the coaching staff had seemed to sour on Antonio Gibson. That didn't exactly prove itself to be true in Week One.
Commanders' RBs Week 1 snaps and routes run, (per @PFF):
Antonio Gibson 49 (26)
JD McKissic 31 (17)
Jonathan Williams 1 (1)— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) September 12, 2022
Gibson ran nine more routes than McKissic in a game Carson Wentz threw the ball 41 times. The game script heavily favored McKissic and yet, the coaching staff still had Gibson with more routes run. That's a big deal for McKissic's fantasy value because he doesn't get more than 3–5 carries per game. If he's not running routes and getting targets, he's fairly useless for fantasy.
Gibson ended up doubling McKissic up in the target department, 8–3. This kind of utilization is going to quickly result in McKissic finding his way to the waiver wire and while he's not quite there yet, another performance like Week One and most fantasy managers won't have a choice.
Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings – 49.8% on ESPN & 57% on Yahoo!
Could Irv Smith's Week One performance be due to his absence this preseason as he dealt with a thumb surgery? Absolutely. He might not have been fully healthy and that's why he was held out a bit. This is the only reason he finds himself on the hot seat and not on the cut list because the Week One stat line was ugly.
Irv Smith (finger) only ran 15 routes on 33 Kirk Cousins dropbacks Week 1. No catches on two targets.
Jonhny Mundt 16 routes, Ben Ellefson 1 route.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 12, 2022
See what I mean? Ugly. Remember Gesicki's terrible route participation stats? Well, Smith's were just as bad. We're just giving him the benefit of the doubt because he may not have been 100%. You certainly don't have to if there are better options on the waiver wire.
There's no doubt Justin Jefferson is going to dominate the passing game in Minnesota, but no other player had more than 3 targets, which presents some opportunity. If Father Time is slowing down Adam Thielen, there might be just enough volume for Smith to make a difference, but he'll need to start playing a lot more.
Fantasy managers want their tight ends running a route on 75% of dropbacks, but ideally at 80%. Smith has a long way to go to get to those numbers so fantasy managers should be eyeing up alternatives.
Hold On
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
98.8% Rostered on ESPN & 97% Rostered on Yahoo!
Holy bananas! That could not have gone much worse.
Darrell Henderson played 76% of the Rams' snaps when Cam Akers out during Weeks 1-12 last season.
He played 82% with Akers active tonight.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 9, 2022
There were a ton of issues all the way around. If you want to focus on the number of touches, you can do that. If you want to focus on the snap share, you can do that too.
If you want to focus on Sean McVay's not-so-friendly post-game comments, those are available for you to focus on, as well. If you want to focus on the history of players who have suffered a torn Achilles, that's there too. There are a million reasons to cut bait and yet, you shouldn't. You should absolutely hold.
You cannot start him right, no how, no way. You might have to accept you drafted a handcuff in round five instead of a potential RB2. That's going to sting a lot, but the reality is, Cam Akers is still one of the better handcuffs in the league. When Akers tore his Achilles last year, Darrel Henderson became the guy.
He played an extremely high amount of snaps and handled the vast majority of running back touches. When Henderson got hurt, Sony Michel took over. Sean McVay loves to use one guy in the backfield in the same manner that Mike Tomlin does.
Kyren Williams just suffered a high ankle sprain and will miss the next four weeks, which means Akers is the unquestioned next man up and Henderson has never played a full season in four years. There's also the possibility that Akers wasn't quite over a preseason soft tissue injury that may have hindered his production and playing time.
In any case, the best thing to do right now is hold as painful as it is.
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
82.5% Rostered on ESPN & 69% Rostered on Yahoo!
Let's get the bad out of the way really quick, shall we?
Giants WR routes run on 28 Daniel Jones Week 1 dropbacks:
* Kenny Golladay 22
* Richie James 22
* Sterling Shepard 20 (first game since Achilles tear)
* David Sills 16
* Wan'Dale Robinson 4 (left with knee injury)
* Kadarius Toney 4
* Darius Slayton 0 (health scratch)— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 12, 2022
This is really, really bad. When receivers such as David Sills and Richie James are playing more than your receiver, fantasy managers have the right to be concerned. In almost every other case, they'd be 100% correct to drop that receiver the first chance they get.
This is the one time I'm advocating for you not to do that. Head coach Brian Daboll indicated Kadarius Toney is still getting over a preseason knee injury and that most likely played a role in his low snap count.
At this point, Toney has certainly come off as one of those primadonna receivers, which could also explain his low snap count. At the end of the day though, we need to bet on talent. The Giants' offense desperately needs play-makers and Toney can do this...
This dude played 7 snaps lmao pic.twitter.com/QQffkisWQD
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 12, 2022
And this...
Scholars maintain that Kadarius Toney has never lost a game of tag pic.twitter.com/jvvBZP3U6N
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 21, 2022
At this point, fantasy managers need to trust that talent. Looking at the embarrassingly bad group of Giant receivers on the roster certainly doesn't hurt either because if he's able to earn a full-time role, the coaching staff won't be able to keep him off the field.
If that does happen, fantasy managers are likely looking at a top-30 receiver because he's going to command targets at a high rate with his shiftiness and he's going to make plays happen after he catches the ball.
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