The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 4

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 4 of the 2022 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The calendars have turned the page to May and we now have a pretty decent idea of who is genuinely struggling, who is being unlucky, and who is a cause for concern. It's not as clear-cut as simply dropping someone who is struggling, but we're in a better position to ascertain what might be causing their struggles and if we do need to consider replacing them on our fantasy rosters.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone you drafted in the sixth round. As the season progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing

Aaron Civale - SP, Cleveland Guardians - 45% rostered

Civale makes the list after consecutive outings in which he's allowed six earned runs. Somewhat remarkably, he's had near-identical lines in his last two starts (at Oakland Athletics and at New York Yankees); six earned runs, seven hits, one home run, one walk, and three strikeouts.

The difference was against the Athletics on Friday, he lasted four innings, and against the Yankees, he only completed three innings. Friday also marked the fourth straight time he's failed to register more than 12 outs to open the season.

Civale's fantasy line now sits at 14.1 IP, 0-2 W-L, 10.67 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, and 14 K. His underlying numbers offer reason to believe his line should be better but not to the point he'll be a solid fantasy option. Civale has a 4.42 xERA, 5.48 xFIP, and 4.58 SIERA. His 18.7% K% is a career-low and 8.0% BB% a career-high.

Civale's arsenal is bigger than most with six different pitches, all of which he's thrown more than eight percent of the time, as shown by the below graphic (taken from Statcast). He'll need to tweak his pitch usage and work through his struggles if he wants to remain relevant in fantasy and part of the Guardians rotation all season.

Verdict - Despite a six-pitch repertoire, Civale hasn't put up big strikeout numbers throughout his career (20.5% K%) and he's now being hit consistently. I believe better days are ahead but it's hard to trust him right now. In deeper leagues, I'm holding but not starting him. In shallower leagues, there are likely better options to pick up and start.

Luke Voit - 1B, San Diego Padres - 43% rostered

The excitement of Voit moving to San Diego and getting everyday at-bats in a good lineup soon waned as he hit the IL at the start of this week with a biceps tendon injury. There haven't been any updates as to how long Voit is expected to miss and he's still due to fight Tommy Pham following Voit's home-plate collision with Tyler Stephenson last week.

After leading MLB in home runs during the 2020 shortened season (22 homers in 56 games), the IL has become an all too familiar place for Voit. After four separate IL stints with the Yankees last year that limited him to 68 games, Voit managed just 13 games in 2022 before his first IL stint of this year.

While we hope it's his last of the season, I wouldn't bet on it. And Voit was off to a slow start before the injury, hitting .143/.315/.167 with no homers, five RBI, five runs, and one steal (the first stolen base of his MLB career).

Voit's 18.5% BB% is in the 96th percentile (and is significantly better than his career 10.8% BB%), while his 31.5% K% is in the 11th percentile and is on course to be a career-high. Maybe a period of time on the IL will let Voit settle into his new surroundings a bit more and he comes back stronger.

Verdict - If you have IL spots, you can use one on Voit. If you don't have that luxury or have better players occupying it, Voit can be considered as a drop candidate in shallower leagues. If you do continue to roster Voit, I suggest making contingency plans for the entire season as it looks like another year of injury woes could be on the cards.

Bobby Dalbec - 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox - 36% rostered

Bobby Bombs is not so much hitting bombs but is more bombing in fantasy and has been one of the most dropped players over the last two weeks. One homer, three RBI, seven runs, and no steals while hitting .147/.213/.235 will do that to you.

The Red Sox called up Franchy Cordero for Friday's game and started him at first base, just his 10th career start at the position. Dalbec returned to the Red Sox lineup on Saturday. It appeared as though Boston was looking at platooning Dalbec with Cordero but both weekend games came against a right-handed starting pitcher.

There's also Triston Casas lurking in the Minors who has four homers and a .227/.366/.427 line through 21 games. Like Cordero, Casas hits from the left side so the Red Sox have the ability to form a platoon if they wanted. And that might be such a bad idea if we look at Dalbec's splits.

Small sample size for sure, but Dalbec has better numbers against right-handed pitchers than lefties this season, although his career numbers suggest platooning him is a sensible option. So it'll be interesting to see if Cordero does form more of a platoon with Dalbec moving forward, or if the Red Sox call up Casas.

He does have a 46.7% HardHit% (74th percentile) but also a 38.3% Whiff% (fourth percentile). So when he makes contact, it's generally a hard-hit ball. The problem remains in making consistent contact and while his 30.7% K% is a career-low, it's still in the 17th percentile.

Verdict - Dalbec's hitting profile is a more and more familiar one, with plenty of strikeouts and lots of power. The problem is, hitters like that will generally be very streaky, and getting off to a slow start has opened the door to playing less and a possible platoon. If Dalbec can still make his way into the lineup regularly, 20+ homers and a ~.220 average is still in play. That's still not something you want to roster in anything but deeper leagues. 

Hold For Now

Dansby Swanson - SS, Atlanta Braves - 76% rostered

Swanson's fantasy value was immediately hindered when he started ninth in the Braves lineup to open the season. Through 22 games, he's yet to hit higher than seventh and is currently sporting a .203/.280/.338 slash line with one homer, seven RBI, eight runs, and two steals.

Among eligible shortstops, Swanson ranks tied-23rd in runs and tied-26th in RBI so is barely a consideration in 12-team leagues. Only 13 shortstops have more than two steals, nine of which have a better average than .203, leaving Swanson as borderline still worth rostering in most leagues.

Swanson will be a free agent this offseason and came into 2022 as one of the most consistent hitters at shortstop over the previous two years. Between 2020 and 2021, Swanson had 37 homers, 123 RBI, 127 runs, and 14 steals with a .256/.321/.453 slash line.

The list of players who have matched Swanson's cumulative numbers over the previous two seasons is short. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto. That's it. So Swanson has shown a consistent level of production that warrants sticking with him in fantasy for now. Just perhaps not matching the levels he's set over the past two years.

Marcus Stroman - SP, Chicago Cubs - 72% rostered

Stroman has struggled on his new team to start the season. Through four starts with the Cubs, he's thrown 19.1 IP with a 0-3 W-L record, 6.98 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 17 K. And his Statcast profile doesn't make for pretty viewing through the first month of the season.

But we're still talking a small sample size, even more so with pitchers than hitters. An example of this is looking at Stroman's starts individually. His season debut was 5.0 IP with one earned run while his most recent start was 6.0 IP, allowing two earned runs. The two starts in between; 4.0 IP allowing five earned runs (at Colorado) and 4.1 IP allowing seven earned runs (versus Tampa Bay).

Take out the start against Tampa Bay and he has a 4.80 ERA. Take out the start at the Rockies too and Stroman has a 2.45 ERA. I don't like picking and choosing what starts to count towards any decision making but this should highlight how a pitcher's numbers can change so dramatically from one bad outing at this early stage of the season.

Stroman lacks the strikeout numbers to make him a top fantasy option but you knew that when drafting him. He missed the 2020 season but between 2019 and 2021, Stroman made 65 starts (363.1 IP) and had a 3.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He's another one who I'd be more patient with given his level of performance prior to this season.

Yuli Gurriel - 1B, Houston Astros - 70% rostered

Gurriel has found himself on more fantasy leagues' waiver wires due to his slow start and despite lacking the power most first basemen possess, Gurriel had the upside of counting stats and a good batting average. Coming into this season, Gurriel had a .293 MLB career batting average with 382 RBI and 347 runs (655 games).

So far this season, Gurriel has no homers, four RBI, five runs, and one steal in 17 games. He's hitting .224/.246/.358  but to emphasize the point of how quickly a player's numbers can look after one game, Gurriel's 3-for-5 performance on Friday saw his average go from .203 to .234.

Gurriel will turn 38-years-old in June so it might be fair to expect a slowdown in production sooner rather than later and his expected numbers don't offer hope of a quick return to pre-2022 form. His .242 xBA is in the 40th percentile while his .328 xSLG is in the 16th percentile.

Most of Gurriel's starts have seen him hitting fifth in the lineup and that should lend itself to runs and RBI. He might not reach 80 in either category (something he achieved in 2019 and 2021) but 12-15 homers, ~70 RBI, ~70 runs, and another steal while hitting ~.280 is what I expect at season's end and that'll still make him a solid corner infielder in all but shallow leagues.

On the Hot Seat

Whit Merrifield - 2B/OF, Kansas City Royals - 95% rostered

Merrifield is on course to be the biggest draft bust of the season. With an ADP of ~33, fantasy managers placed their stolen base hopes and dreams on Merrifield's shoulders. The good news is he's notched three steals in 19 games and could potentially reach 40 stolen bases for the second straight year.

The bad news is everything else. Merrifield has yet to homer, has four RBI, four runs, and is hitting .141/.190/.179. He's never been one for taking walks and having walked just three times in his first 18 games, he walked twice on Saturday (going 1-for-3).

Despite all this, there is a reason for optimism. A look at his expected stats tells a tale of bad luck, something that should correct itself over the course of a season. The below numbers taken from Statcast show Merrifield's expected numbers compared to his actual numbers and where that ranks (taken prior to Saturday's game).

Whilst the expected stats still aren't great (a .247 batting average is still well short of his career .287 mark), out of the 313 qualified hitters, very few have a greater difference between their expected stats and their actual numbers.

Merrifield doesn't need to hit the ball hard to have success. Last year, he ranked in the sixth percentile for HardHit% and 12th percentile for barrel%. And if the luck corrects itself, Merrifield should be able to get more chances to steal and at least get near to the 97 runs scored last year.

Merrifield is approaching 500 consecutive starts, and whilst that's an admirable achievement in today's game, he's still not going to catch Cal Ripken Jr's record. Maybe an extra day off to help Merrifield rest, tweak things, or just chill out could do him some good.

Merrifield isn't someone I'm going to be looking to drop and his stock is so low you're likely not going to get much in return for any trade. For now, I'd be holding Merrifield, taking the few steals he is still offering and patiently waiting for the luck to right itself.

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Randy Arozarena - OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 96% rostered

After starring for the Rays in the 2020 Postseason, Arzoarena put up a 20/20 season in 2021 with 20 homers, 69 RBI, 90 runs and 20 steals while hitting .274/.356/.459. He was one of only 10 players to have a 20/20 season and he ranked fifth in AVG, eighth in RBI, and seventh in runs among the group.

So far this year, Arozarena is hitting .195/.235/.273 with no homers, four RBI, nine runs, and three steals. My concern is he's yet to barrel a ball and ranks in the first percentile for xSLG and xwOBA. Arozarena only ranked in the 17th and 23rd percentiles for those two stats last season and still had success, so it's not the be-all-and-end-all for him.

Arozarena's sprint speed of 28.8 ft/s prior to this year is almost matched in 2022 (28.7 ft/s) so I'm not concerned about him getting 20 steals again this year. But his BB% is down to 3.7%, reducing opportunities and if he doesn't start making even decent contact, we may need to reassess our expectations from him this year.

Ketel Marte - 2B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks - 90% rostered

Marte seemed like a draft-day bargain this offseason, with an ADP of ~78. But he got off to a dreadful start and is hitting .146/.211/.256. Marte homered for the first time this year on Saturday and now has one homer, six RBI, five runs, and one steal (22 games).

I'm fine chalking this up to just a small sample and a slow start given he entered this year with a .318/.374/.543 line over the last three years. And maybe last night's home run in a 1-for-4 performance (which saw his SLG raise from .211) gets him going.

But there are a couple of concerns I have that are contributing to his slow start. The first is the strikeouts. Despite having a career of 14.9% K% prior to 2022, that's currently sitting at 24.4% K% on the year. He's swinging at more pitches (career-high 50.6% swing%) but making less contact (career-low 79.0% contact%).

Secondly is the lack of line drives. Marte had a 22.0% LD% over the last three seasons, but that's down to 13.8% this year. Again, it's still early but for someone whose fantasy value is entrenched in his batting average, an inability to drive the ball to the outfield is going to make it difficult to hit over .250 let alone .300.

I'm not prepared to write off Marte at this stage of the season given he's hit .329, .287, and .318 in each of the last three years. I'm a bit more concerned than I am about other early-round picks and I'm putting Marte on my watchlist to closely monitor him over the next two to three weeks.

Jorge Soler - OF, Miami Marlins - 64% rostered

Soler clubbed his second homer of the year on Friday, a monster blast that's the third-longest homer on the season. That helped lift his line to .178/.286/.315.

Following Saturday's 0-for-3 performance, Soler is hitting .171/.284/.303 (20 games) with two homers, six RBI, six runs, and no steals (two stolen base attempts). After starting the season (somewhat inexplicably) as the Marlins' leadoff hitter, he's reverted back to the three spot in the lineup.

In nine games hitting third, Soler has a .206/.325/.382 line, which is more similar to his career .243/.329/.460 slash line. Maybe Soler felt too much pressure trying to be a leadoff hitter and trying to get on base rather than looking to launch pitchers into orbit. Who knows.

Whatever it is, Soler looks like he may have turned the corner and like many high strikeout power hitters, he can be streaky. I wouldn't be surprised if Soler doubles his home run total next week. He had six homers by the end of June last year before finishing the year with 27. Soler isn't someone I'm dropping after a sluggish two-week period to begin the season.

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