The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 15

July 4, 2021

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 15 of the fantasy season.

Welcome back to the Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers could consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. To end June, I put out a call on Reddit for names you wanted me to include in this week's Cut List. I wasn't expecting the response I got with dozens of names being submitted. Some had been included in the last four weeks so I've omitted them and was left with 26 players who have either yet to feature or who haven't been included in over a month.

So I've split them into two lots and will include the first group of 13 names this week and the second group next week as we head into the All-Star Break. As always, if there's anyone you specifically want to know whether to drop or hold who isn't included in the article, mention them on the Reddit thread or give me a shout on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and I'll answer your questions on them. This isn't a "hard and fast" list of definite players to drop, but hopefully, it will act as a tool to help you with your roster decisions.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. Most teams will have hit the midway point of their season this weekend so we have more than enough of a sample size on most players to base our decisions on. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

Worth Dropping and Replacing

Dinelson Lamet - SP, San Diego Padres - 68% rostered

After starting the season on the IL, Lamet has been eased back into things with his 11 appearances totaling 34.1 IP this year. Lamet hit the IL again earlier this week with a forearm inflammation, the same issue for which he hit the IL back in April, just a day after being activated from the IL. Lamet had to undergo Tommy John Surgery in 2018 which caused him to miss that entire year and since returning in 2019, has only pitched 176.1 innings. Of course, the shortened 2020 season didn't help but it's hard to envisage how Lamet can pitch enough this year to be fantasy relevant.

When he has been healthy, Lamet has been pretty good this year. He's sporting a 3.67 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP. His 25.5% K% is down on his career mark before this season (31.6%) but is still in the 61st percentile and his 7.4% BB% is a career-low that ranks in the 64th percentile. His underlying numbers are also supportive of his ERA with a 3.84 xERA, 3.96 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA. Before his latest setback, Lamet had been built up and managed to complete five innings in two of his previous three starts. However, this latest injury might force the Padres to once again revisit how much Lamet pitches for the remainder of 2021.

Verdict - In dynasty leagues, I'd still look to keep Lamet on my roster. But these forearm issues are a concern giving his prior TJS and he's now on the IL for the third time this year. For this year, it's hard to see how he can pitch enough to provide fantasy value

Cristian Javier - SP/RP, Houston Astros - 53% rostered

After beginning the season in the Astros rotation, Javier made nine starts before being put in the bullpen in a bid to limit his workload. Javier was having plenty of success as a starter with a 3-1 record and 3.14 ERA from 48.2 IP. Since his move to the bullpen, Javier has made seven relief appearances totaling 19.1 IP and has a 2.33 ERA as a reliever. He's also picked up a four-inning save in that stretch and has 25 strikeouts, so has provided some fantasy value as a reliever. With Jose Urquidy (shoulder) heading to the IL, there was some hope that Javier might return to a starting role, although the Astros have yet to announce their plans.

The Astros have been using a six-man rotation and could just get through to the All-Star Break with a five-man rotation and reassess things then. Given Javier pitched one inning of relief Saturday, that seems the most likely course of action in the short term at least. But they could piggyback Javier on the back of another reliever and have him on a pitch count to minimize his usage, yet still go three or four innings. They could simply call up a starter from the Minor Leagues and just leave Javier in the bullpen. The reality is, we're just guessing right now. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Javier making starts in the second-half but if the Astros are aiming to protect Javier, building him up from a reliever role back as a starter will take time and might not be something the Astros will want to do.

Verdict - Unless he does find himself back starting games and going five or more innings in his starts, Javier is only rosterable in dynasty leagues and very deep redraft leagues as a ratio helper with solid strikeout numbers. It may be worth holding on for another week or two until the Astros intentions become clear but if you need the roster spot, Javier is fine to drop.

Jorge Soler - OF, Kansas City Royals - 40% rostered

Remember 2019? A simpler time when nobody knew what spider tack was, nobody knew what COVID was and everybody knew who Jorge Soler was. His 48 homers that year set a record for the most in a season by a Cuban-born player. Fast forward to today and COVID has changed the world, spider tack has forced us to rethink pitching and Soler has hit 14 homers in his last 119 games. No two ways about it, Soler has been a bust in 2021 and his monster 2019 season is looking like a complete outlier and fluke of a season. Soler should also act as a reminder that hitting the ball hard doesn't automatically translate into positive results. A look at his Statcast profile will show Soler is in the 91st percentile for average exit velocity, 95th percentile for maximum exit velocity and 90th percentile for hard-hit rate.

The big problem for Soler is actually making contact. After posting a ridiculous 34.5% K% in 2020, he's cut that down to 27.9% this year. But that's still only the 17th percentile. He's also seen a significant decline in his sweet-spot rate which is only 24.0% this year (34.2% in 2019 and 26.7% in 2020) and his barrel rate currently at 11.7% this year (16.6% in 2019 and 18.9% in 2020). That has all equated to a .185/.281/.311 line with just six homers in 76 games. I will caveat things with this; Soler has been somewhat unlucky. His xBA is .222, xSLG is .429 and xwOBA is .326 (wOBA is .268). He's also got an expected home run total (xHR) of 12 so could easily be having at least a respectable season. For some reason, the Royals have decided to move Soler up to second in their lineup this week which has led to him scoring two runs while going 6-for-25 (all six hits have been singles). Even if those expected stats do materialize into his actual stats, it's still a far cry from 2019.

Verdict - In shallow leagues, Soler can be dropped. Even if his xBA, xSLG and xwOBA were his actual stats, they still rank in the 14th, 50th and 46th percentile respectively. In deep leagues where you need power, you can hold on and hope his luck does turn around. But think 2019 will repeat itself is only going to leave you disappointed.

Hold For Now

Kenta Maeda - SP/RP, Minnesota Twins - 80% rostered

You could argue that Maeda has been one of the biggest fantasy busts of 2021 so far. With an ADP of ~51 (16th SP), you'd have expected better than a 5.56 ERA and 3-3 record from 12 starts. Granted, he hasn't been helped by a Twins team that has equally underwhelmed but he's not helped himself. Maeda has a career-low 21.0% K% so far and hasn't completed six innings since his second start of the season back on April 07th. Maeda hit the IL in late May with a right adductor strain and had a 5.27 ERA up to that point.

Maeda's first two starts following his return from injury offered hope to fantasy managers. He allowed just three earned runs over 9.1 IP against the Mariners and Rangers. His third (and most recent) start off the IL was a disaster, however. On Tuesday, Maeda allowed seven earned runs in 4.2 IP against the White Sox, eight hits, five walks and four strikeouts. If you're looking for some form of optimism with Maeda, he does have a 4.50 xERA, 4.35 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA and .337 BABIP. His underlying numbers do suggest he's been unlucky yet still not to the point he'd be providing value on his ADP if his ERA matched them. Given his track record, I'd be more inclined to give him another couple of starts then make a call on him during the All-Star break.

Gavin Lux - 2B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers - 53% rostered

Lux has failed to live up to the lofty expectations many had of him when he debuted in 2019. Over the last three years, Lux has played 113 MLB games and has a career .222/.298/.364 line with 11 homers and six steals. That's a far cry from his minor league numbers in which he hit .305/.383/.483 with 48 homers and 52 steals in 396 games across all levels. It's easy to forget that Lux is still only 23-years-old as he made his debut at 21 after a torrid spell in Triple-A. In 2019, Lux hit .313/.375/.521 at Double-A and got promoted to Triple-A where he hit .392/.478/.719 with 13 homers and three steals in 49 games.

Despite a slow start to his MLB career, there are some signs of growth. Obviously, we are talking about relatively small samples for Lux in the Majors but his strikeout rate has lowered to 23.2% this year while his walk-rate is up to 10.3%, both nearer to his Minor League numbers (18.2% K% and 11.22% BB%). Lux has struggled of late and is hitting .159/.327/.182 over his last 15 games (one homer and two steals) which isn't ideal timing with Corey Seager nearing a return. Seager has had a slight setback in his rehab from a broken hand and can't return until after the All-Star Break, but when he does return, Lux will likely see his playing time diminish if he's not producing at the plate. Lux is still a dynasty league asset and until Seager returns, can be a fill-in in deeper redraft leagues. But he's a reminder that development isn't linear and good MiLB numbers don't always translate into good MLB numbers straight away.

Adbert Alzolay - SP, Chicago Cubs - 32% rostered

The Cubs season is falling away rather rapidly as they now sit in third place of the NL Central with a 42-41 record. Last night saw Alzolay take a hard-luck loss as the Cubs dropped their eighth straight game. Alzolay had a quality start against the Reds on Saturday, pitching seven innings and allowing three earned runs while striking out six. He was hurt by the long ball with two of the three runs scored being solo homers, making it three straight starts in which Alzolay has allowed two home runs. It was only the second time this season that Alzolay has made it through seven innings (14 starts) and after a June in which he had a 6.89 ERA and completed just 15.2 IP in four starts, this was definitely a step in the right direction.

Yesterday's start also lowered Alzolay's ERA on the year to 4.48 which is certainly respectable for someone who only had 33.2 IP in MLB before the year. His 4-8 record is disappointing but not totally unexpected given the Cubs struggles and it's now four straight losses accredited to Alzolay which does harm him in points leagues that count them. My concern about Alzolay's fantasy value is his workload moving forward. He's never thrown more than 120.1 IP in a year and that came in 2016 so with 72.1 IP under his belt already this year, I'm not convinced he'll have a full workload in the second half of the season. I do still like Alzolay in dynasty leagues and in deeper redraft leagues, especially if he can put a rough June behind him. In shallower leagues, he can be dropped and used as a streaming option.

On the Hot Seat

Ke'Bryan Hayes - 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates  - 82% rostered

Hayes experienced the highs and lows of baseball in the opening weekend of the season. After homering on Opening Day of his first full season with the Pirates, Hayes was forced off in his second game with a wrist injury, which would sideline him for two months. Now back and healthy, Hayes has played 29 games this year and has a .245/.325/.396 line with three homers, two steals, 16 runs and 15 RBI. Pretty solid for a rookie.

What's often forgotten about the Pirates no.1 prospect is he progressed through the Minor Leagues regarded as a "glove-first" third baseman and future Gold Glove winner. Plays like this remind us of his defensive talent.

While that may not matter statistically in fantasy, being a top-tier defensive player will ensure more regular playing time even during struggles at the plates.

Hayes played 468 games in the Minors and had a .279/.353/.401 line with 27 homers and 66 steals which might not stand off the page like some high-end prospects, but is still solid. His debut last year raised hopes he could be an offensive force in the Majors when he hit .376/.442/.682 with five homers in just 24 games.

It is important to remember Hayes has only played 53 MLB games and is still developing his bat. Even still, he's been holding his own on a poor team and certainly doesn't appear overawed. He's got an MLB career 19.5% K% and 10.2% BB% which suggests Hayes as the discipline to be a solid Major League hitter and at 24-years-old, will likely keep getting better.

Now, what of Hayes this year in redraft leagues? Well, ROS projections have Hayes hitting ~9 homers, ~5 steals, with 35-40 runs and 30-35 RBI with a ~.265 average. That would put Hayes at around the 15th-18th rank among third baseman, which would make him a corner infielder in 12+ team leagues. Although the Pirates haven't been good this season, Hayes has started every game batting second which sees him sandwiched between Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds, both of whom are hitting over .300. If the trio stays together, Hayes could still out perform his projected counting stats.

There's no question that in dynasty leagues, Hayes is someone who should be rostered everywhere. In redraft leagues, he's still a viable corner infielder with upside for 12+ team leagues. Don't expect a huge power surge in the second half of the season but he should still be a solid contributor of counting stats with a solid batting average who will chip in with some steals and homers. In shallow leagues, he is borderline worthy of rostering depending on team needs but there will liekly be few players on your waivers that has the upside of that Hayes has.

The Reddit Requests

Here are the remaining six names from the Reddit Requests. If you requested someone on the thread from earlier this week who hasn't been included in this article, they will appear next week.

Anthony Rizzo - 1B, Chicago Cubs - 92% rostered

Rizzo isn't quite having the contract year he wants. Through 72 games, he's hitting .245/.341/.434 with ten homers, 30 runs, 32 RBI and four steals. After hitting 30+ homers in four straight seasons between 2014-2017, he's failed to reach that mark since and looks likely to miss out again. In his 2018 and 2019 seasons, he hit 25 and 27 homers respectively and his line across those six seasons was .284/.388/.513 while playing 911 games. It's safe to say there's a track record of consistent excellence there. That's why this year is such a disappointment, but Rizzo has been unlucky. He has a .271 xBA, .465 xSLG and .360 xwOBA (.337 wOBA). The main point of disappointment has been the counting stats, with Rizzo ranking tied-20th in runs and tied-23rd in RBI among first basemen. With the Cubs seemingly in freefall right now, there's a chance Rizzo gets traded before the deadline which could help him tally more counting stats if traded to a contending team and if his luck does correct, Rizzo should be a solid corner infielder for the remainder of 2021.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 2B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays  - 80% rostered

Gurriel Jr. has been having something of a down year. His .259/.278/.416 line will represent career lows in all three categories and he has just nine homers in 73 games. Between 2018-2020, he'd hit 42 homers in 206 MLB games so his current pace of 18-20 homers this year is certainly disappointing. But there's plenty of reason for optimism with Gurriel Jr as he's been significantly better after a poor start to the year. At the end of May, Gurriel Jr. had just four homers and a .249/.265/.367 line. In his last 30 games, he's hitting .278/.304/.500 with five homers. Despite hitting between the sixth and eighth spot in the lineup, he's still scored 16 runs and has 19 RBI in that time. Gurriel Jr. looks to be heating up and should still be a solid fantasy outfielder for the second-half of the season.

Dansby Swanson - SS, Atlanta Braves - 77% rostered

Swanson is on track to have a career-low slash line which currently sits at .226/.283/.419. Despite that, he's also on course to comfortably set a career-high in homers with 13 in the first 82 games of the season (career-high is 17 in 2019). He's also chipped in with five steals and could still set a career-high there too, which currently is 10 (2018 and 2019). Swanson has predominantly hit fifth or sixth in the Braves lineup (rank 12th in runs scored) which has contributed to limiting him to 33 runs and 34 RBI. That still ranks him tied-19th in runs scored and 11th in RBI among shortstops while his 13 homers are tied-7th most. It's easy to see his batting average and worry but he also has a .249 xBA and as long as he's contributing in the other categories as he has been, Swanson should still be rostered in most leagues as a middle infielder.

Raimel Tapia - OF, Colorado Rockies - 75% rostered

Tapia is hitting .289/.338/.399 with five homers and 11 steals on the season. As the Rockies leadoff hitter, Tapia has scored 49 runs which is tied-ninth among outfielders and he ranks tied-eigth in stolen bases at the position. He's scored 27 of those runs since June 01st and has six of his stolen bases while hitting .331/.368/.458 in that timeframe. That's a good portrayal as to how the Rockies offense struggled so much in the first two months of the season. He has very similar splits against LHP (.301/.341/.373) and RHP (.284/.337/.409) and is entrenched atop the Colorado batting lineup so is someone who should likely be rostered more than he is and certainly not someone I'd be considering as a drop candidate. Tapia is someone you can consider trading if you're fine at runs and steals as he won't help much with RBI and homers. Outside of that, he should still be rostered.

Jesus Aguilar - 1B, Miami Marlins - 59% rostered

Aguilar announced himself in 2018 when he hit 35 homers in 149 games with a .274/.352/.539 line. He also amassed 108 RBI that year and with 51 RBI already this year, is on track to hit triple-figures in the category again. Among all first baseman, Aguilar ranks seventh in RBI but his 25 runs scored ranks tied-23rd at the position which highlights how difficult the Marlins have found it to score runs this year (they rank 28th in MLB for runs scored with 318). Given Aguilar came into the season with a career .259/.336/.470 line and 71 homers in 499 games (average of 23 homers over 162 game), his first half (.260/.322/.446 with 12 homers) has him on pace for almost exactly his career average. Yes, the runs scored is a disappointment but he's overperforming projections in RBI and everything else is what should have been expected preseason. Aguilar is still a solid corner infielder in any league, especially if you need RBI.

Tony Gonsolin - SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 57% rostered

Gonsolin has made five appearances for the Dodgers this year (four starts) and picked up his first win on Thursday when he came in as a "follower" and gave up one earned run over three innings in a rain-shortened game. He's only totaled 16.0 IP so far as the Dodgers continue to stretch him out slowly but he does have a 2.81 ERA on the year. Prior to this year, Gonsolin had a 2.60 ERA from 86.2 IP in the Majors from 14 starts and six relief appearances. It looks likely that the Dodgers will need Gonsolin to start games moving forward and they will continue to stretch him out after he missed the start of the season due to shoulder inflammation. He might not go deep into games all season if the Dodgers treat him cautiously or he could end up in the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever. If he does stick as a starter, he could prove to be a valuable addition to your fantasy staff the rest of the season. If you are already rostering him, you might as well keep him and see what the Dodgers plans are for him which should come clearer over the next week or two.

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