The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who to Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 16)

The Cut List for Week 16 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 16 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those unfamiliar, this is our weekly article examining players whom fantasy managers might consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who warrant a closer look.

We'll examine players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for potential replacements, and individuals on the hot seat who are worth holding onto ... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Drew Rasmussen - SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays - 73% rostered

If we just looked at numbers, Rasmussen is more of a fantasy MVP candidate than someone worth dropping. After 19 starts, he has a 7-5 W-L record, 2.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 77 Ks (91 1/3 innings). So why should we be considering dropping Rasmussen? It's simply down to his role.

The Rays have made no secret that they intend to manage Rasmussen's workload this year. Reports are that he'll be capped at 150 innings. And it's important to note that it's a cap, not a target. The Rays may very well limit Rasmussen further, depending on how the next few weeks go.

Kevin Cash just confirmed the #Rays rotation coming out of the All-Star break: Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen, with Rass expected to return to a five-inning workload.

— Ryan Bass (@Ry_Bass) July 12, 2025

Rasmussen has totaled seven innings in his last three starts. He's expected to start the Rays' fifth game after the All-Star Break and pitch five innings. That will be game number 102 for the Rays this year. If they maintain Rasmussen as a starter every fifth day, that leaves him with 13 more starts.

Given that Rasmussen is capped at another 58 2/3 innings, that's an average of less than five innings per start (4.51 to be more precise). If Rasmussen pitches five innings in each of his first three starts after the All-Star Break, that leaves him with a maximum of 43 2/3 innings over 10 remaining starts.

There are just not enough innings left for Rasmussen to provide enough fantasy value. If he had better strikeout numbers, then there is a slightly stronger argument to be had for rostering Rasmussen. But his 21.7% K% ranks in the 47th percentile.

Considering we're after an accumulation of strikeouts, at his current pace, another 40-45 strikeouts are feasible. Then we have to factor in that this is already Rasmussen's second-highest innings total in the Majors. There's a good chance we'll see regression as the season rolls on.

Verdict: While Rasmussen will return to a more conventional starting role, it's not a guarantee to last. Even if it does, it won't be for a few more weeks. Wins will be tougher to come by, and the strikeout totals will be lacking. In all but deeper leagues (and in dynasty), Rasmussen is droppable.

Brenton Doyle - OF, Colorado Rockies - 52% rostered

Not a week goes by that I don't get asked about Doyle. That's understandable given he's hitting .201/.254/.323 with seven homers, 30 RBI, 33 runs, and nine steals (81 games). There have been two things I have always said regarding Doyle, including when he last featured seven weeks ago.

Firstly, the Doyle family suffered an unimaginable tragedy earlier in the season. I do not know how that has impacted Doyle on or off the field. And I'm not going to try to understand it. All I can talk about is Doyle's numbers.

As we might expect, like many of his teammates, Doyle has stark differences in his home and road splits.

It was a similar story last year, during Doyle's breakout campaign. He hit .313/.365/.534 at home and .211/.271/.364 on the road. This year's numbers away from Coors Field are more extreme, but it's becoming a common theme for Doyle, like it is with so many Rockies hitters.

After starting the season as the Rockies' leadoff hitter, Doyle has been hitting in the bottom half of the lineup since mid-May. While his elite defense will keep him in the lineup, a below-average bat will keep Doyle out of the ideal spots in the batting order.

Verdict: I wouldn't rule out a bounceback next year. But for this year, Doyle is just worth holding in deeper leagues that have daily lineups. The Rockies only have two weeks where they don't have a road game. So, in weekly lineup leagues, Doyle has very little value.

Hold For Now

Jack Flaherty - SP, Detroit Tigers - 88% rostered

Flaherty had a solid start to 2025. He was generally taken as around the 35th to 45th starting pitcher in drafts. So fantasy managers were feeling good about drafting Flaherty as an SP4 in early June. After firing six shutout innings against the Cubs on June 8, Flaherty had a 3.41 ERA (13 starts).

Then came a couple of shellackings. Flaherty was tagged for 15 earned runs in seven innings over his subsequent two starts. That saw Flaherty's ERA balloon to 4.83. His last three starts haven't been great, but have steadied the ship and left him with a 5-9 W-L record, 4.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 117 strikeouts (95 2/3 innings).

Before we delve into some of his numbers, it's worth noting Flaherty's home and road splits. The table below highlights how contrasting his numbers are at home and away.

Given that the Tigers' Comerica Park is something of a pitcher-friendly ballpark, having better numbers at home shouldn't be a surprise. But the size of the difference in Flaherty's home and road ERA is eye-catching. Especially given the very little difference in xFIP.

Overall, Flaherty has a 3.65 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA, so his ERA does look inflated by some bad luck away from Detroit. Flaherty's 29.3% K% ranks in the 89th percentile. Only 12 pitchers have more strikeouts than Flaherty (117), so he's contributing there.

As well as an improved ERA, we can also expect more wins for Flaherty. Of 83 pitchers with at least 90 innings, Flaherty's 3.65 xFIP is the 27th lowest. Only three of those 26 pitchers with a better xFIP have fewer wins: Paul Skenes, MacKenzie Gore, and Dylan Cease.

Considering the Tigers have the best record in baseball, a 5-9 W-L record seems unfortunate, even for a pitcher with a 4.70 ERA. Provided things don't regress significantly, Flaherty should still end the season with double-digit wins.

There's enough in Flaherty's numbers to warrant holding him in all leagues. He's maintained a high number of strikeouts. And provided his luck turns, Flaherty should provide a solid ERA and some wins over the remainder of the season.

Adolis Garcia - OF, Texas Rangers - 61% rostered

Garcia has emerged as a possible trade candidate before the end of this month. That might be something that can save his season. After 91 games, Garcia has a .234/.279/.396 slash line with 12 home runs, 55 RBI, 33 runs, and nine stolen bases.

Adolis Garcia Could Emerge as a Trade Candidate https://t.co/fawfxRSNyY

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) July 4, 2025

Whether or not Garcia gets traded, it's been tough to roster him in fantasy leagues. He currently ranks as the 48th outfielder on Yahoo! (standard 5x5 rotisserie scoring). Until recently, Garcia ranked even lower. This week, Garcia has homered twice, driven in six runs, scored five runs, and stolen a base.

Garcia had been showing some improvements lately. Since June 1, he's hitting .270/.312/.433 with a 106 wRC+. In July, Garcia has only failed to record a hit in one game. He is hitting .286/.327/.449 with a 118 wRC+ in July (11 games).

There are more positive signs for Garcia. He's got a .254 xBA (expected batting average), so he has been a bit unlucky. His .477 xSLG also suggests that we should have seen more power from Garcia. Maybe this week is when things correct and we start seeing the version of Garcia we know.

Garcia has still been hitting the ball hard. His 92.9 MPH average exit velocity ranks in the 92nd percentile. And Garcia's 48.8% hard-hit% ranks in the 82nd percentile. What makes it all the more frustrating is that Garcia has a career-high 51.0% FB% (fly ball rate) and career-low 31.9% GB% (ground ball rate).

Only 13 of the 157 qualified hitters have a lower ground ball rate this year, and just six of them have a higher fly ball rate. It seems like an anomaly that Garcia hasn't hit more home runs this year.

According to Statcast Park Factors, Globe Life Park ranks as the seventh-best park for home runs from right-handed hitters. So it's not like a change of scenery will unlock more power. Garcia also has similar home and road splits in 2025.

If you've held Garcia this long, he's at least rewarded you this week. Whether or not he gets traded remains to be seen. At the very least, Garcia may have turned the corner. If this is a false dawn and we don't get any boost from a trade, then waving Garcia goodbye at the end of July seems fair.

On the Hot Seat

Jackson Merrill - OF, San Diego Padres - 96% rostered

Last year's NL Rookie of the Year runner-up hasn't come close to emulating his debut season. After 63 games, Merrill has seven homers, 32 RBI, 33 runs, and one steal with a .263/.326/.417 slash line. Merrill must've heard he was being put on The Hot Seat before last night's game.

Against the Phillies, Merrill went deep twice. Both times against the NL Cy Young Award frontrunner, Zack Wheeler. A promising sign after what has been a stop-and-start type of season to this point. The reason Merrill has only played 63 games is due to injuries.

He missed a month with a hamstring injury and a further week due to a concussion. I'm not worried about lingering effects from the hamstring strain causing Merrill's offensive struggles. He had five consecutive multi-hit games after his activation off the IL (injured list).

While it may not be impacting his hitting, it may be impacting Merrill's running. He attempted two steals in the first 10 games of the season. In 53 games since returning from the IL, Merrill has one stolen base attempt. It was unsuccessful and also led to Merrill's concussion.

Merrill had four hits and a walk in the three games after returning from his concussion. So it doesn't appear as though he's dealing with lingering issues from that. But he was hitting .304/.349/.474 before the concussion. Merrill has seven hits in the last 16 games. Two of which came last night.

That would suggest that Merrill hasn't been right since returning. Two homers last night would suggest otherwise. While we have seen mishandling of concussions recently (Anthony Rizzo in 2023 springs to mind), it's unlikely that Merrill is dealing with residual health issues stemming from the concussion.

Merrill's struggles have been going on for a bit longer than the last 16 games, too. Before yesterday, his last home run came on May 27. Since then, he's been hitting .202/.286/.318 (35 games). Despite the struggles, there's still some hope. Even before yesterday, there was hope.

That shows how good Merrill's injury-interrupted start to 2025 was. In his first 28 games, Merrill hit .333/.375/.532 with a 157 wRC+. Bad luck does look to be a factor, as we can see from his Statcast Profile. Merrill should have better numbers than he does, especially his slugging percentage.

The biggest concern is the drop in hard contact from last year. In 2024, Merrill had a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity and 43.9% hard-hit%. That isn't the only drop for Merrill. Recently, he's been dropped down the Padres' batting order, hitting fifth or sixth over the last few days.

We won't see a drop in playing time as Merrill's defense alone is too valuable (as we can see from the graphic below). That's another reason why I don't believe his struggles are health-related.

Whatever the cause, Merrill is not coming close to replicating his rookie season. It's unlikely that more than a few people are dropping Merrill, given he's still so highly rostered. And very few will be thinking of doing so right now. But that's not to say fantasy managers should just blindly stick with Merrill.

We saw last year what he is capable of. But that's all we have to go off. It looks like this is mainly a cold streak. Last night may have bookended that. Merrill is certainly deserving of more time, given what we saw him do last year, and to start 2025.

But if we're sitting here in early August and Merrill's still not running, has shown no more power, and isn't improving his slash line, then a tough decision may need to be made. Until such time, don't drop Merrill and hope he can help carry last night's outburst into the remainder of the year.

Reader Requests

As always, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or in the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Salvador Perez - C/1B - Kansas City Royals - 94% rostered

Perez is currently trending towards having his fewest home runs over a season in a decade. If the season ended today, Perez would also have his lowest batting average since 2018. After 91 games, Perez has 13 homers, 54 RBI, 25 runs, and no steals with a .246/.287/.424 slash line.

Despite the disappointing numbers so far, Perez still finds himself ranked 11th among catchers (according to Yahoo!). If he wasn't catcher eligible, then there's definitely a strong case to drop Perez, as he ranks 143rd among all hitters. Further proof that the position is weak for fantasy.

Perez is also a good example of how volatile the position is. This time last week, Perez wasn't even ranked inside the top 15 at the position. As recently as Saturday morning, Perez was ranked ninth among catchers. A 0-for-4 performance yesterday saw him drop two places among his fellow backstops.

There's a case for me not to have included Perez in The Cut List, considering what he's done this week. Maybe Perez got fed up of being suggested as a drop candidate, so he decided to start the week by going 8-for-15 with three home runs. If we look at his Statcast Profile, something like this week was due.

Among 249 qualified hitters, only four have a bigger difference between their slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage. As well as having a better xBA and drastically better xSLG, Perez also has 16.3 xHR (expected home runs).

I'm guessing that those who suggested Perez last Sunday wouldn't have done so if he headed into last weekend after such a hot few games. Which is why I opted to include him. Perez can act as a reminder that one big week can still change a player's numbers significantly and alter their perception.

Perez wasn't ranked as a top-15 catcher last week. Now he's 11th. While it's not a given that players with better expected numbers will start to see better results, it's not too late for things to flip. It would be nice if more than half of Perez's runs scored weren't from homers, but he's still worth rostering.

Ian Happ - OF, Chicago Cubs - 89% rostered

Happ's level of consistency made him an ideal mid-round option in fantasy drafts. For many, Happ is an outfielder you put in the starting lineup and forget about. Then, when you check at the end of the season, you'll already know pretty much what numbers he'd have put up.

Recently, fantasy managers are doubting that Happ will provide the numbers we expect. After hitting .208/.298/.481 in June (26 games), Happ is hitting .111/.273/.139 in July (10 games). Despite the disappointing batting average in June, nine of Happ's 12 home runs this year were hit last month.

In July, we've seen no power and an even more disappointing batting average. It's a small sample, of course, so it's worth looking at Happ's season as a whole to this point. And we'll start by comparing them to his preseason projections.

ATC projected Happ to hit .242/.338/.420 with 21 homers, 76 RBI, 83 runs, and 12 steals in 148 games. After 85 games, Happ is hitting .227/.324/.375 with 12 homers, 46 RBI, 53 runs, and four steals. That's a 148-game pace of 21 homers, 80 RBI, 92 runs, and seven steals.

Other than a handful of stolen bases, Happ is trending towards matching or bettering his projected counting stats. Considering Happ has a .255 xBA and .426 xSLG, there's reason to believe he'll have outperformed his projected slash line by the end of the year.

Happ has always provided more value in leagues that count walks. This year is no different. His 12.6% BB% ranks in the 89th percentile. Even in leagues using batting average, Happ's walks will provide value. That has also ensured Happ has remained as the Cubs' leadoff hitter. Until yesterday.

After getting the day off on Friday, Happ returned to the lineup Saturday. For the first time this year, he wasn't hitting first. Instead, Happ slipped down to seventh in the lineup. It may have helped, as Happ only had two hits in July before going 2-for-4 yesterday.

The last few weeks have been a bit of a roller coaster, with the low batting average being offset by the power outburst. Hopefully, things will steady after the All-Star Break. As long as Happ's batting average doesn't continue to plummet, he's still worth rostering.

The main thing to keep an eye on is where Happ fits into the batting order moving forward. The Cubs faced off against Max Fried yesterday and are set to see Will Warren today. Whether his position in the lineup is matchup dependent will also have an impact on Happ's fantasy value.

Jac Caglianone - 1B/OF, Kansas City Royals - 28% rostered

Someone so low rostered is rarely included in The Cut List. But Caglianone is a player who seems to be requested every week since his promotion. That's largely down to Caglianone doing very little at the plate. And also due to some rather high expectations.

We should remind ourselves that no matter how highly touted a prospect is, that doesn't translate into them being an immediate impact player. If at all. That doesn't mean Caglianone can't turn his rookie season around.

The requests to cover Caglianone remind me of the regular requests I received to cover Nick Kurtz earlier in the season. That might seem strange given Kurtz is hitting .251/.330/.543 with 16 homers, 42 RBI, 30 runs, and one stolen base (56 games).

But Kurtz got off to a very slow start in the Majors, to the point there were suggestions he'd be sent back to the Minors. Given they are similarly profiled prospects, we'll compare Kurtz's start with Caglianone's numbers to this point.

It goes without saying that nothing is linear. It's unrealistic to expect Caglianone to start performing well after 23 games just because Kurtz did. But it can act as a reminder that rookies seldom hit the ground running. Some will take a few weeks to adapt. Some will take a few months.

The good news is that Caglianone's underlying numbers are much more promising. He's got a .261 xBA and .466 xSLG. Given we're only dealing with a small sample, anomalies like that are to be expected. They do suggest that patience should pay off if you're rostering Caglianone.

In all likelihood, if you picked up Caglianone, you did so for his upside. Because you were chasing in your leagues and needed to take a few risks. If so, it doesn't make much sense to cut ties with him now. There's no guarantee that Caglianone will have a strong end to 2025, but I wouldn't bet against it.

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