Starting Pitchers: Fantasy Baseball End-Of-Season Report Card (Part 1)

October 14, 2024

Jamie Steed looks at how the top pitchers in 2024 MLB drafts fared. In the first part, he looks back at the first six starting pitchers drafted, grades their 2024 performance, and previews their 2025 outlook.

The 2024 fantasy baseball season is in the books. It seems like the perfect time to look back and reflect on the season: What went right and what went wrong. One of the biggest determinants will likely have been how the starting pitchers you drafted early performed throughout the year.

Our focus here is on the first 12 starting pitchers drafted in 2024, according to their Yahoo! average draft position (ADP). We'll examine the pitchers' performance and grade them based on their Yahoo! end-of-season ranking compared to their ADP. We'll also offer a 2025 outlook for each.

We're starting with the first six starting pitchers drafted, and the second group of SP1s is coming soon. Don't forget to follow RotoBaller on X to get notified when that article drops. The team will also be bringing you all the preseason baseball stuff you need. Without further ado, let's get into this.

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Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 10.0
End of Season Ranking: N/A
Stats: GP 2, IP 9.0, W-L 0-0, ERA 7.00, WHIP 1.67, K 12

Grade: Incomplete

Unfortunately, we have to start the article with a downer. Strider came into the 2024 season justifiably as the No. 1 starting pitcher. After backing his 2022 breakout with a stellar 2023 campaign, in which he struck out 281 batters in 186.2 IP, hopes were high for Strider in 2024.

Strider's season ended in April after two starts due to an elbow injury. While he avoided a second Tommy John Surgery (TJS), Strider still required an "internal brace procedure," which ruled him out of the remainder of 2024. Fantasy managers who drafted Strider lost their SP1 in the blink of an eye.

Whilst there hasn't been much in the way of news, we did get a small update earlier this month. It seems like Strider has a chance to make the Opening Day roster. There's also the possibility that he will miss the first two months of the 2025 season.

#Braves' Anthopoulos said it's too early to know when Acuña and Strider will be back, but said it could be as soon as Opening Day or as late as early June, if for some reason either needed more time. Right now, there've been no setbacks or reason to think it'd be the longer end.

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) October 4, 2024

We will likely get more news as the offseason progresses. For now, Strider would be a very risky early draft pick. The upside is huge, but how many innings and how well he pitches after another major elbow surgery remains to be seen.

I'm not going to grade Strider, given the severity of the injury and the fact that he made just two starts. Taking Strider in your drafts turned out to be a disaster. But rather than dwell on that, let's just hope he can bounce back in 2025 and remind us of his talents.

Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 21.4
End of Season Ranking: 41
GP 32, IP 194.1, W-L 15-9, ERA 2.92, WHIP 1.10, K 181

Grade: A-

If you didn't want to take a starting pitcher with your first-round draft pick, Burnes would likely have been your first pitching target. And while he didn't disappoint, Burnes wasn't quite able to live up to expectations, ultimately ranking 41st in standard 5x5 roto leagues.

The ranking is largely down to the strikeouts. Burnes' 23.1% K% ranked in the 51st percentile and was his lowest since his debut year (2018). That left Burnes ranked tied for 20th overall in total strikeouts, and it was the first time in four years that he had failed to reach the 200-strikeout mark.

Despite his 2.92 ERA, Burnes had a 3.55 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA. They come on the back of a 3.80 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA in 2023. Burnes' ERA has outperformed the underlying numbers in the last two seasons. Maybe tempering expectations for 2025 is in order.

Burnes heads into the offseason as a free agent. He will likely be the most sought-after free-agent pitcher this winter. His landing spot will have an impact on where he goes in drafts. Having made at least 32 starts in three consecutive seasons, Burnes can be considered a workhorse.

And he will still only be 30 years old come Opening Day. Burnes should still be taken as an SP1 but likely drafted in the fourth round. As the saying goes, 'availability is the best ability.' Only two other pitchers have logged more innings over the last three seasons, and that should not be ignored.

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 27.8
End of Season Ranking: 11
GP 32, IP 200.0, W-L 16-7, ERA 2.57, WHIP 0.96, K 224

Grade: A

Wheeler has established himself as an elite starter and he delivered again in 2024. His 2.57 ERA was a career-low, and his season was comparable to 2021 when Wheeler narrowly missed out on a Cy Young Award. He fully warrants a high grade.

Wheeler is set to finish second in the Cy Young voting again this year. Ranking tied third in wins and strikeouts, you can't find fault in his performances from a fantasy standpoint. Wheeler's 26 quality starts were also four more than anyone else managed.

Wheeler was one of only four pitchers to have reached the 200 IP mark. He also ranked third among the 58 qualified starters in ERA and WHIP. If it wasn't for the two 'soon-to-be' Cy Young Award winners, Wheeler would have been the number one starting pitcher in 2024.

The only reason I've not awarded Wheeler an A+ is due to the fact he was taken as the No. 3 starting pitcher and ranked second at the position. But I'd have no issue giving him the highest mark. I'd also have no issue taking Wheeler as a top-3 starter next year.

Wheeler has made 32 starts in three of the last four seasons. And totaled 758.1 IP since 2021 (third-most). I wouldn't bet on another sub-3.00 ERA next year, given Wheeler's 3.30 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA. But there's no reason not to take Wheeler in the second round as your SP1.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 34.2
End of Season Ranking: 185
GP 18, IP 90.0, W-L 7-2, ERA 3.00, WHIP 1.11, K 105

Grade: C+

Yamamoto came into the season full of hype, given his success in Japan. A sub-2.00 ERA in seven seasons led to the Dodgers signing Yamamoto for $325 million over 12 years. He had his signature moment in game five of the NLDS, helping to send the Dodgers to the NLCS.

If it wasn't for a nearly three-month absence due to a rotator cuff strain, Yamamoto might have been in the running for Rookie of the Year. After a rough debut outing as a Dodger, which lasted one inning (giving up five earned runs in Seoul), Yamamoto looked like a star.

He went on a 13-start run with a 2.34 ERA, striking out 82 batters (73.0 IP). Yamamoto's four starts following his return from injury saw him put up a 3.00 ERA, so it's not like he struggled when he got back. But, with nearly half a season missed through injury, it's tough to say Yamamoto was a successful draft pick.

Yamamoto didn't have any significant injury concerns when the Dodgers signed him. He averaged over 185 innings across his last three seasons in Japan, so there's a chance he can hit that mark in 2025. His underlying numbers suggest he can be a star if he does stay healthy.

Yamamoto's 2.86 xFIP and 3.14 SIERA ranked in the top 10 for starting pitchers with at least 90.0 IP. His 28.5% K% ranked 11th among that group. It all points to Yamamoto having SP1 potential in 2025. If you wait on pitching and can take Yamamoto in round four or five, you'll be getting value.

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 38.0
End of Season Ranking: 165
GP 30, IP 175.1, W-L 11-12, ERA 3.64, WHIP 1.17, K 175

Grade: B-

The addition of Castillo to the Mariners' young and exciting rotation looked like a great move in 2022. He was excellent in 2023 but was overshadowed by the other Seattle starters in 2024. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller all threw more innings and had a lower ERA than Castillo.

That's not to say Castillo was a bust. But, he didn't manage to come close to providing value on his ADP. He wasn't helped by a disappointing Mariners offense, which ranked 21st in runs scored (676). Castillo's 18 quality starts ranked tied-14th most while his 11 wins ranked tied-34th.

That ultimately saved Castillo from getting a C-grade. However, when we compare Castillo to the rest of the Mariners' rotation, it's difficult to make a case for taking him over the aforementioned trio in 2025.

Castillo has been a solid performer and is still well worth rostering in 2025. However, some red flags are lingering over him. Castillo ended the season on the IL with a hamstring injury. His numbers have been in slight decline over the last couple of years, and his arm has thrown a lot of innings.

That's not to say Castillo is considered an injury risk. But, after being a top-5 starting pitcher pick in 2024, he's likely going to be taken as an SP2 next year. There's little upside with Castillo, but he's also a nice anchor if you want to take some risks with your other pitchers.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 37.6
End of Season Ranking: 196
GP 31, IP 181.0, W-L 14-11, ERA 3.83, WHIP 1.22, K 162

Grade: C-

Gausman has been one of the 'poster boys' for workhorse starting pitchers. This year marked the fourth consecutive season in which he made at least 31 starts. Only four other pitchers have managed that feat. Unfortunately for Gasuman, the numbers didn't match the previous three years.

This year saw Gausman's ERA, K%, and BB% decline. It was his highest ERA since 2019, and Gausman's 14.0% K-BB% was his lowest since 2018. At 33 years old, it's too soon to believe Gausman is over-the-hill. But the numbers speak for themselves.

Gausman's underlying numbers don't lead me to believe that he can return to his pre-2024 self next year. Gausman had a 4.22 xFIP and 4.24 SIERA. Among the 58 qualified starting pitchers, his xFIP ranked 49th, and SIERA ranked 45th.

The biggest question surrounding Gausman next year is whether he can recover some of his fastball velocity. It averaged 93.9 MPH in 2024, down from 94.6 MPH in 2023. That was the lowest it's been since 2019, when Gausman had a 5.72 ERA.

There's no way Gausman will come close to being drafted as an SP1 in 2025. I'd be surprised if he was taken as an SP2. It feels like Gausman will be drafted as an innings eater. He'll accumulate wins and strikeouts without harming your ratios. That leads me to believe he'll be taken closer to round eight.

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