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Elliott's starting pitcher (SP) fantasy baseball draft sleepers, targets, avoids based on 2026 ADPs. His favorite starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers to draft in 2026.
With February in full swing, we're only a few short days away from spring training games, which means baseball is back, baby! It's still early in draft season, and this is the time of year when the best values can be had in drafts.
Today, I'm going to look at three starting pitchers I'm targeting at their current ADP and three starting pitchers I'm avoiding at their current ADP. It's worth noting that I'm not completely off the avoids, but these are guys I want a discount on this draft season. I'd need them to fall at least a round or two before I'd consider drafting them.
ADP data is taken from NFBC leagues and is accurate as of 2/8/26.
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Starting Pitchers to Draft - Top Targets
Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds
NFBC ADP: 125.65, 46th pitcher drafted
The second overall pick in 2024, Burns had an up-and-down start to his major league career last season. He went 0-3 with a 4.57 ERA in 43 1/3 innings between the rotation and the bullpen, but he also notched exactly 10 strikeouts in four of his eight starts. The peripheral numbers on Burns suggest that he was quite unlucky during his first taste of big league action, and it’s not unreasonable to expect bigger and better things from Burns in 2026.
Despite the 4.57 ERA, Burns had a 2.65 FIP and 2.68 xFIP. He also dominated major league hitters with a monster 35.6% strikeout rate and 4.19 K/BB ratio. The strikeout rate was not inflated by his bullpen work either, as Burns had a 37.7% K rate as a starter last season.
From a stuff perspective, Burns’s offerings look special. The gem of his repertoire is a 98.7 MPH four-seam fastball, which he threw 57.9% of the time last season. This put Burns in the 97th percentile of fastball velocity in MLB, and it would’ve made him the hardest-throwing starter in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.
It’s not just about velocity for Burns, though, as his fastball has 18.1 inches of induced vertical break and 3.5 inches of arm-side run, giving it a unique shape on top of the blistering velocity. Here’s a look at Burns’s pitch movement profile from last season (four-seamer in red).
And here’s a look at one of his fastballs from last season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) February 8, 2026
Nasty stuff, and Burns also has a 2,605 RPM spin rate and 91% active spin with the pitch, making it even more deceptive. This is about as good as it gets for an MLB starter’s fastball, and Burns could blow this by hitters in 2026.
It wasn’t just about the fastball for Burns either, as he got excellent results on his two secondary pitches, the slider and the changeup. The slider was his primary breaking ball, and he used it 33.8% of the time. Batters managed just a .197 AVG, .439 SLG, and .271 wOBA against the pitch.
A little more power than we’d like to see, especially given his home ballpark, but his .334 xSLG and .223 xWOBA both suggest he may’ve been a tad unlucky in this regard. What really impresses me about this pitch is the 43.9% whiff rate he had in 2025. A whiff rate above 40% is elite, and Burns was fanning hitters left and right with this pitch. This fastball-slider combo could become one of the deadliest 1-2 punches in baseball.
The biggest knocks on Burns are a lack of experience, his home ballpark, and a limited repertoire. He threw his fastball and slider a combined 91.7% of the time last season. These are two elite pitches, but Burns needs to at least incorporate his changeup more frequently.
The changeup didn’t get used as much when he pitched out of the bullpen, but he got some excellent results with this pitch as well. Batters hit just .182 against the changeup with a .273 SLG and .271 wOBA. He threw it almost exclusively to left-handers, giving him a tool to help reduce platoon splits. If he can develop this changeup more, or perhaps develop another pitch (He threw 13 curveballs last season, too), he could become a frontline starter.
It’s also worth pointing out just how unlucky Burns was last season. In 43 1/3 innings, he had a .360 BABIP against and a 64% LOB rate. He gave up a lot of hard contact last season with a 90.2 MPH average exit velocity against and a 45.7% hard-hit rate against, but even so, we can expect regression on a .360 BABIP and a 64% LOB rate, both of which greatly deviate from league average.
Bottom line, when it comes to chasing upside in 2026, Chase Burns.
Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates
NFBC ADP: 164.05, 69th pitcher drafted
Regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball coming into 2025, Chandler got some mixed results in his debut last season, pitching 31 1/3 innings between the bullpen and rotation. His 4.02 ERA isn’t all that impressive, and his 25% strikeout rate was above average, but lower than expected based on his minor league numbers. Still, there was a lot to like about what we saw from Chandler if we look at some of the peripheral stats.
He had a 2.66 FIP and 3.09 SIERA, along with a monster 21.8% K-BB%. He also kept the ball in the yard with a 0.57 HR/9 and 46.5% ground-ball rate.
This was a small sample size, but these numbers suggest that Chandler was pitching much better than his 4.02 ERA shows. One contributor to the disparity between ERA and peripherals was his abnormally low 61.6% LOB rate. The league average last season was 72.3%, and Chandler was at 75.6% in the minors before being promoted. It’s safe to say that this number will likely normalize over extended work for Chandler, which will make all of his numbers better.
Beyond good peripherals in 31 1/3 innings, there’s a lot to like about Chandler. His stuff is downright nasty, with a 98.6 mph fastball that’s on par with Chase Burns. Chandler also got 17.3 inches of induced vertical break on his fastball, giving it exceptional movement on top of the velocity. Chandler got mixed results with the heater in 2025. He had an impressive 30.8% whiff rate, which is great for a fastball, but batters hit .292 with a .492 SLG and .364 wOBA off the pitch.
He surrendered a lot of hard contact, with a 93.9 mph average exit velocity against and a 17-degree average launch angle against. Batters had a 34.8% line-drive rate off the fastball, more than double the rate on any of his other pitches. League average line drive rate was 19.7%, so this is another number that will likely normalize over time, though the hard contact is a little concerning.
He had a 45.45% hard-hit rate off his fastball in the minors last season as well, which seems awfully high given how well this pitch measures out.
Chandler hammers this pitch up the zone, which is a great strategy for strikeouts, but can also leave one susceptible to hard contact if they don’t locate perfectly. Chandler wasn’t known for great command and even had a 12% walk rate at Triple-A last season, but cut it down significantly to 3.2% once he reached the majors.
His zone rate went up 4.7% from Triple-A to the majors as well, so perhaps he was trying a new approach pushed by the big league club, or just made an effort to limit walks. Chandler’s fastball is a good one, and I’d anticipate better results on it going forward, especially if he can hone in on his command and execute with it better. He’s only 23, so there’s plenty of room for growth.
Chandler’s fastball made him a prospect, but it hasn’t always been his strikeout hammer. That honor goes to his changeup, which had a 39.6% whiff rate in the majors last year. Unlike the fastball, batters couldn’t hit this at all, with an .080 AVG, .120 SLG, and .109 wOBA against, along with an 86.3 mph average exit velocity and a -5-degree average launch angle against.
Basically, batters couldn’t hit it, and when they did, it was weakly into the ground. A 91.7 mph offering, Chandler boasts plus vertical and horizontal movement with the pitch, making it tricky to pick up when batters are looking for the fastball. Here’s an example from last season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) February 8, 2026
A 94 mph change is just gnarly, and it’s easy to see why hitters struggle against this pitch. Between the hard fastball and the changeup, Chandler should have no problem with left-handed batters, and he held lefties to a .216 wOBA against last season. The fastball has been touted as Chandler’s best pitch, but the changeup may be the most polished.
He rounds out his arsenal with a slider and a curveball, both of which had interesting results last season. The slider is an 89 mph offering with solid movement and held batters to an .087 AVG, but it posted a 23.1% whiff rate, quite underwhelming for a breaking ball.
The slider shape doesn’t deviate from league average all that much, and it doesn't have exceptional movement, so this is clearly his third-best pitch behind the fastball and change. He’ll need to both command the fastball better and perhaps incorporate the changeup against righties more often if he wants to juice those strikeout numbers.
His fourth pitch is an 85.4 mph changeup, which he only threw 6.1% of the time last year. Batters hit .500 off the pitch, but had a .208 xBA and -15-degree launch angle against. Those are some small sample size numbers, but he had a .237 xBA with the pitch at Triple-A. The pitch has a unique shape, with a 40.2-inch drop and 1.8 inches of glove-side movement. This could be a solid fourth offering and a good groundball pitch if he develops it more.
Altogether, what attracts me to Chandler this season is talent plus draft cost. He has nasty stuff, and the prospect pedigree, and he can be had after pick 150. He’s projected to make the Pirates rotation and could be a breakout pitcher with an extended look. If you aren’t willing to pay the price for someone like Eury Perez, Nolan McLean, or Burns, Chandler is a great alternative.
Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
NFBC ADP: 219.71, 84th pitcher drafted
It’s easy to hype up pitchers like Burns and Chandler; they were some of baseball’s top prospects heading into 2025 and look ready to graduate to the next level. That’s why I wanted to give a deeper pick, and that’s Kansas City’s Kris Bubic. Bubic was a hot sleeper heading into 2025 himself, and he lived up to the hype before going down with a rotator cuff strain in July.
Based on his current ADP, we seem to have forgotten that Bubic put up a 2.55 ERA, 24.4% K rate, and 2.97 K/BB ratio in 116 1/3 innings. He was legitimately breaking out before the injury. And yes, shoulder injuries are scary for pitchers, perhaps even more so than elbow injuries, but Bubic is going so late in drafts that he’s an enticing sleeper once again.
Pitching with a deep five-pitch repertoire (four-seam, changeup, sweeper, slider, sinker), Bubic shut opposing batters down last season with his deceptive fastball and nasty changeup. He only averaged 92.1 mph on the gun last year, but that didn’t stop the pitch from being effective. Batters hit .241 off the fastball with a .370 SLG and .299 wOBA, but the expected stats suggest Bubic should’ve had even better results with a .223 xBA, .356 xSLG, and .287 xwOBA.
How does he do it with a 92 mph fastball? It’s all about location and pitch shape. Bubic’s fastball isn’t particularly hard, but he got 18.1 inches of induced vertical break and 4.3 inches of arm-side run, both plus movement. The induced vertical break increases a fastball’s rise. The pitch doesn’t literally rise after it’s thrown, as that would be impossible, but the break makes it so the pitch doesn’t drop along a typical trajectory, giving the batter the perception of rise.
This often leads to swinging over a pitch because the ball isn’t as high as the batter expects. Here’s a look at Bubic’s pitch movement profile from last season (four-seamer in red).
See how much his fastball deviates from league average? That’s what makes it special, and as long as his fastball shape is intact, he should continue to outperform his velocity.
The fastball may be Bubic’s most used pitch, but it’s not his best. That honor goes to an 85.5 mph changeup, which Bubic threw 21.1% of the time last year. Bubic got outstanding results with the pitch, with opponents hitting just .198 with a .242 SLG and .247 wOBA against it.
Perhaps most impressive is his monster 38.4% whiff rate. Not quite the mythical 40%+ mark I quoted earlier, but still a very strong whiff rate for a changeup. Bubic’s changeup had an elite 37.2 inches of vertical drop and 11.3 inches of arm-side movement. Let’s look back at his pitch movement profile again (changeup in green).
Like the fastball, the changeup has a unique shape that’s tough for hitters to read. Here’s an example of the pitch from last season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) February 8, 2026
Nasty stuff. The changeup is why Bubic was somewhat touted as a prospect in KC’s system. Between the fastball and the changeup, Bubic could be a plus strikeout pitcher once again. Bubic’s 24.4% strikeout rate was above average last season, and it’s also worth pointing out that Bubic had a 2.25 ERA and 26% strikeout rate before the month of July, when he may have started to be affected by the shoulder injury.
26% is probably at or around his strikeout ceiling, but this changeup and deceptive fastball give him a decent strikeout floor, which can be hard to find after pick 200.
Bubic also featured a sweeper and slider to great effectiveness last season, and threw the occasional sinker, though it struggled to get outs. He’s got at least four solid pitches, and one really strong one in the changeup. He’s got a rotation spot on what should be a competitive Royals team, and he’s shown us an extended period of excellent pitching last season.
He seems forgotten about this draft season, but Bubic is definitely someone to target at his ADP. The big risk is injury, but if healthy, I expect him to pick up where he left off last year.
Starting Pitchers to Fade - Overvalued ADPs
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
NFBC ADP: 48.70, 16th pitcher off the board
By all accounts, it was a renaissance season for deGrom in 2025. The "deGrominator" pitched 172 2/3 innings, his first time even cracking 100 since 2019, and put up a 2.97 ERA and 22.1% K-BB%. Those are ace-like numbers, and it seems that everyone has jumped back onto the deGrom train. He is certainly a talented pitcher and belongs in Cooperstown someday, in my opinion, but there were a few cracks in the armor last season, despite deGrom taking home Comeback Player of the Year in the AL.
I’m not saying the bottom is about to fall out, but there’s reason to hesitate at this draft price.
First, deGrom’s strikeout rate fell to 27.7%. That’s still a great number, but he hasn’t been below 30% since 2017, and he often had strikeout rates north of 38% in his prime, albeit sometimes in limited action. His elite slider had a whiff rate of 39% last season, which is great for most people, but deGrom was around 45%-50% in his prime.
Maybe it isn’t fair to compare a 37-year-old to his prime MLB self, but deGrom was putting up those strong numbers even in his mid-30s between injuries. He has lost some movement with the slider over the years. Here’s a comparison of his 2025 movement profile to his 2022 movement profile (slider in yellow).
He’s lost vertical movement, giving it a more traditional shape. I still expect this to be a good pitch for deGrom in 2026, but it’s no longer the best slider in baseball. In addition to a reduced strikeout rate, it’s worth noting that a lot of deGrom’s Statcast numbers worsened in 2025, too. His .221 xBA and .391 xSLG were his highest since 2016. His 41.9% hard-hit rate and 90.1 mph average exit velocity represent an upward trend in both metrics.
These aren’t bad numbers, but they aren’t the deGrom we came to know and love.
He was also quite lucky last season, putting up a .230 BABIP despite allowing more hard contact, and he had an unsustainable 83.6% LOB rate. His career marks are better than average in both categories, but we shouldn’t expect him to sustain this for another season. His home-run rate also exploded in 2025 to 1.36 HR/9, a career-worst.
His 13.8% HR/FB ratio was only a little higher than his career mark, and within the realm of normalcy, so he wasn’t unlucky in this regard either.
This might feel like nitpicking, but at this draft cost, it pays to notice things like this. And that brings me to everyone's big concern with deGrom, and that's health. He spent practically the entire 2020s on the injured list prior to last season, and I’m not ready to trust his health after one season, especially as he’ll turn 38 midseason.
I was fine to take the risk on deGrom when he was literally the best pitcher in baseball, but now that he’s fallen to the second tier of aces, I’d rather take someone steadier.
Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays
NFBC ADP: 80.58, 29th pitcher drafted
Cease became a wealthy man this offseason, inking a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Blue Jays in November. Toronto paid him to be a frontline ace, and Cease is looking to deliver in his first season in the great white north. He’s been drafted inside the top-30 pitchers, and most will view him as a number two or maybe a strong number three this season.
He could certainly wind up there when it’s all said and done, and he could perhaps even exceed expectations based on what we’ve seen in the past from him. He was a Cy Young runner-up in 2022 after posting a 2.20 ERA with the White Sox. But things have been volatile for Cease ever since, and he’s had both moments of greatness and moments that leave fantasy managers puzzled and frustrated.
The biggest knock on Cease has to be his poor control and propensity to issue walks. He had a 3.80 BB/9 last season, good for a 9.8% walk rate. Cease has the tendency to unravel at times, and he issued three or more walks in 13 of 32 starts last season. His 39.3% zone rate was the third-lowest among qualified pitchers last season.
To be fair, he did have a strong 34.7% chase rate, but it’s undeniable that Cease has control issues, control issues that don’t normally plague starters of his caliber.
We’ve seen this affect Cease’s bottom-line numbers, too, as he’s posted an ERA over 4.50 in two of the last three seasons. ERA isn’t necessarily predictive and isn’t always reflective of a pitcher’s true skill, but in 5x5 roto, it’s the number that counts. Cease’s dominant strikeout abilities ensure that his peripheral metrics are always strong, such as a 3.56 FIP, xFIP, and a 3.58 SIERA last season, but he’s struggled to make those numbers a reality for entire seasons at a time.
Another concern I have with Cease is his new home. He’s switching leagues and going from one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in San Diego to a hitter-friendly park in Toronto. He’s switching leagues and will be pitching in the AL East, contending with deep lineups among his new division rivals. Home runs have never been a major problem for Cease, and I’m not expecting his numbers to balloon out of control, but it is a negative factor against him.
Toronto is a good club that should provide him with run support, but he’s no longer pitching at Petco Park.
Cease sort of reminds me of Robbie Ray. When either is at their best, they look unhittable and like one of baseball’s best arms. At their worst, they can’t throw a strike or make it out of the fourth inning. We haven’t seen enough consistency out of Cease to take him this high. There is a ton of upside to be had at starting pitcher this season after pick 80, and I want more stability in my early arms. He’s not totally off my draft board, but he’d have to fall before I consider him.
Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres
NFBC ADP: 95.22 ADP, 35th pitcher drafted
Pivetta enjoyed a career year last season, posting a 2.87 ERA over 181 2/3 innings along with a 19.4% K-BB%. Those are frontline starter numbers, and with the departure of the aforementioned Cease, the Padres expect Pivetta to be their ace. Last season’s surface stats suggest he’s up to the task, but under the hood, there’s room for doubt as to whether Pivetta can repeat again.
The 2.87 ERA was by far Pivetta’s career best, as he had never been below 4.04 over a full season. But, strangely enough, some of the ERA estimators were his worst in years. While not bad, his 3.69 SIERA and 3.85 xFIP were both his highest since 2022, when he put up a 4.56 ERA in Boston. Looking at the numbers, it’s clear that Pivetta benefited from some good fortune last season.
His .235 BABIP against was nearly 60 points lower than his career mark, and his 78.7% LOB rate was a career high. He also had a 9.7% HR/FB ratio, compared to a career 14.5% mark. Home runs have long been a struggle for Pivetta, and San Diego is one of the best places for a pitcher like him, but even so, I wouldn’t bank on a repeat for any of these numbers.
The low BABIP is especially suspect, since Pivetta’s 90.3 mph average exit velocity and 10.9% barrel rate were both slightly above his career averages. He also had a 45% hard-hit rate, which put him in the sport's 15th percentile. These numbers are not conducive to a .235 BABIP, and he could bounce all the back to the league average or his career average, which would really dampen his numbers.
Maybe Pivetta doesn’t have to fully repeat to be worth it at his current draft cost, and one good thing about him is that he should pitch a lot of innings and could go for 180 again if healthy. But, I think Pivetta has a sneaky low floor that isn’t being considered at this cost. He was one of the most volatile pitchers in MLB going into 2025, and he was sort of a meme in the fantasy baseball community because his end stats were never as good as the stuff or peripherals suggested they could be, and some of us have been waiting a long time for the breakout.
At the end of the day, we’re talking about a guy with a career 4.47 ERA, 4.23 FIP, and 1.46 HR/9. He’s definitely due for some regression, and this feels like the classic example of buying someone too high after their career year. Pivetta does have good stuff, with a dominant sweeper and strong curveball, but 2025 was the first time he was able to put it all together for an extended period.
Looking at the pitchers around him, it seems like you could chase more upside with a young guy like Perez or McLean, or you could get some stability with someone like Framber Valdez. Pivetta sort of sits in between those two groups. He’s a veteran with stable innings, but the results could be all over the place. I’m not completely off him, but I want a discount.
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