X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Cost Analysis - Sean Newcomb vs. Freddy Peralta

Two pitchers that have the ability to either strike out five batters in a row or walk five batters in a row, this ADP showdown will pit Sean Newcomb and Freddy Peralta. Newcomb was a first-round pick by the Angels in 2014 and Peralta was nothing more than a sleeper leading into 2018, but each will be players to watch in 2019.

Newcomb is considerably higher in NFBC leagues at around pick 199, while Peralta is going at pick 325. Is it worth waiting more than 100 picks for Peralta or is Newcomb too good to pass up earlier in the draft?

RotoBaller is going to break down all the pressing ADP questions you need to know before draft day.

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

Sean Newcomb – Georgia Peach

(ADP 199 Overall)

Sean Newcomb was the key player in the Andrelton Simmons deal for the Braves and, after a few solid seasons in the minors, made it up to the big leagues in 2017. While his 4-9 record, 1.57 WHIP, and 4.32 ERA in 100 innings for Atlanta were not great, his 108 strikeouts were solid. With a 4.19 FIP, there was some room for improvement in 2019.

A 12-9 season in 2018 was an improvement for Newcomb, as was his 3.90 ERA, 7.5 hits per nine allowed, and a drop in walk rate from 12.5% to 11.6%. The biggest sign that Newcomb was making strides to becoming a frontline start was his performance in May/June; over 11 starts (65 1/3 innings), Newcomb was 7-1 with a 2.07 ERA and just 43 hits allowed. The issue, though, was that he posted back-to-back months with a 5.00+ ERA after these strong performances, posting a 3-5 record and 5.88 ERA in July/August. His strikeouts dipped a bit in 2018, to 160 in 164 innings pitched, but his performance in the mid-season shows his potential.

While Newcomb had a strong season on paper, there were some issues when looking at his batted-ball profile. The first issue was with his 34.8% hard hit ball rate and it continued with a 43.4% GB rate and 36% FB rate. When a pitcher has issues with control and is allowing too many hard hit balls as well as fly balls, that usually ends up with trouble; a 11.1% HR/FB rate in his career shows that. As strikeouts are a big part of Newcomb's game, the fact that his swinging strike rate dropped from 11.1% to 10% is not a good sign, nor is his O-Swing% dropping from 30.6% to 26%. The final issue is a rise in contact rate from 75.9% to 77.5%. Newcomb has promise, but he appears to be far from a finished product.

 

Freddy Peralta – Wild Thing

(ADP 325 Overall)

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta only had a 6-4 record and 4.25 ERA after being called up from the minor leagues in 2018. In his 14 starts, he allowed at least three earned runs in seven of them and walked multiple batters in 11 starts. All of that being said, Peralta is lauded as one of the top starting pitcher sleepers coming into 2019.

So why is Peralta so valuable? The first place to start is the fact that, in 78 1/3 MLB innings, he allowed just 49 hits and struck out 96 batters. In fact, through the majors and minors in 2018, Peralta struck out 188 batters in just 141 1/3 innings, allowing 99 hits. The walk issues show that Peralta is not a finished product (he has walked at least four batters per nine in each of the last three seasons), but his ability to miss bats cannot be understated.

If there is a better way for a player to start their career than Peralta, you will be hard pressed to find it; Peralta allowed one hit in 5 2/3 shutout innings against the Reds on May 13, striking out 13 batters. He then followed that up by allowing no more than three hits in any of his next three starts, pitching throwing six shutout innings against the Pirates and seven against the Royals. The issue with Peralta this season is the poor start in that four-game spell: he allowed six walks in just four innings against the Royals. In fact, after walking two or fewer batters in three of his first four starts, he walked three batters or more in all five of his July starts.

It is quite clear that there is a give and take with Peralta, as he will limit hits and strike out batters, but also will walk far too many batters. Considering that fact, we need to look both at his ability to miss bats and also to induce softer contact. Two key statistics to look at when evaluating Peralta's ability to miss bats are his swinging strike rate and his percentage of pitches swung at outside the zone. At a 28% swinging rate and 10.8% swinging strike rate, Peralta shows that he is able to confuse batters and stifle them with his fastball. He has one of the top fastballs in the league, a good thing considering that his curveball is slightly above average and his changeup (which he only threw 2.8% of the time) is neutral.

As for batted-ball data, Peralta's 30.5% ground ball rate and 41.4% hard-hit ball rate stick out like a sore thumb. Furthermore, with a 52% flyball rate and his inflated hard-hit ball rate, many could say that his 8.7% HR/FB rate was quite lucky as well. His 17.5% line drive rate is the lowest of his career, but hard hit balls in the air should lead to more home runs then they did for Peralta in 2018. As bad as his batted-ball stats look, though, he had a 75.9% contact rate that was top-50 among SP with at least 70 innings pitched.

 

Conclusion

There is not a simple answer to which player to draft. Peralta has less of a track record, is less of pedigreed player, and, honestly, could end up in the minors at times this season. That being said, both have walk issues and Peralta appears to be just as good of (if not better) a strikeout pitcher. There is a good chance that Peralta will continue to have those issues and will need to limit his hard contact, an issue for him in 2018, and keep on striking out batters to get out of jams.

Peralta's value comes in the fact that he is basically unowned in mixed leagues with an ADP at 325. Simply put, Fernando Tatis Jr. has yet to make his MLB debut and, will likely spend a majority of the season in the minors, and his ADP is 304. Newcomb is not a bad player (especially considering his performance in the middle of the season), but there is just too much value in drafting Peralta at the end of the draft.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Ekblad29 mins ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov37 mins ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto43 mins ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin56 mins ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard60 mins ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins1 hour ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist1 hour ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear1 hour ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop1 hour ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels2 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball2 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado2 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
Jaden Springer2 hours ago

Considered Questionable
Xavier Tillman2 hours ago

Sr. Questionable Thursday
Gabe Vincent2 hours ago

Expected To Return To Action On Sunday
Al Horford13 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White13 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl14 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon15 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter15 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic15 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio15 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday15 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton15 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid15 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray16 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert16 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James16 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez16 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis16 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Victor Wembanyama16 hours ago

Playing On Wednesday
Anthony Edwards16 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Garrett Mitchell16 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Chad Green16 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Erik Swanson17 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman17 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Gleyber Torres18 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard18 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson18 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer18 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia18 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen19 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers19 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers19 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers20 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar20 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark20 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers21 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB21 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels21 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB21 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby21 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith21 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds21 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti23 hours ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga23 hours ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain23 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim23 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA23 hours ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry23 hours ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox23 hours ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak23 hours ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Colton Cowser1 day ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Jordan Montgomery2 days ago

Diamondbacks Agree On One-Year Deal
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
Jon Gray2 days ago

Dealing With Stiff Neck
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Throws Successful Live BP Session
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Dobson6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Third UFC Appearance
Luis Pajuelo6 days ago

Makes His UFC Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More