Scouting the Routing: 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

Fresh off of the relaxing, jovial atmosphere of Mexico's National Open, the PGA Tour makes its maiden voyage into the Eastern timezone for the first of four consecutive events held in the Sunshine State. Unlike Vidanta Vallarta, however, the courses in the Florida rotation aren't exactly known for their forgiveness, as the next four weeks will each feature a venue that ranks inside the top nine most difficult venues on the PGA schedule.

PGA National itself is far from the traditional "gentle handshake" we've become accustomed to thus far in 2024, as its 10-year scoring average of 71.41 (+1.41 to par) ranks as the toughest non-major venue on the golfing calendar in that time. But what makes a flat, 7,100-yard layout one of the most daunting tests we'll see all year? That will all be uncovered in the next few pages and set the stage for Florida's two main events coming directly on the horizon. Although this field features a collection of established stars, exciting up-and-comers, and recent victors on the PGA Tour, we're assured of seeing our fair share of Major-esque carnage around the links of Palm Beach Gardens this week.

Before we get into the oddsboard on tap for golf bettors Monday morning, this piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set you up to make the crucial decisions necessary before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on PGA National and the 2024 Cognizant Classic!

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The Golf Course

PGA National (Champion Course) - Par 70; 7,125 yards

Past Champions

• 2023 - Chris Kirk (-14) over Eric Cole (playoff)
• 2022 - Sepp Straka (-10) over Shane Lowry
• 2021 - Matt Jones (-12) over Brandon Hagy
• 2020 - Sungjae Im (-6) over Mackenzie Hughes
• 2019 - Keith Mitchell (-9) over Rickie Fowler & Brooks Koepka
• 2018 - Justin Thomas (-8) over Luke List (playoff)

 

PGA National by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 29.5 yards; Ninth most narrow on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 277.1 yards; Fourth lowest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 60.2%; 17th lowest (roughly middle of the pack)
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.34; 16th lowest (also middle of the pack)
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: -0.041; Fifth toughest on Tour

With its collection of forced layups, narrow landing areas, and water hazards, there is perhaps no course on the PGA Tour more set up to mitigate driving distance than PGA National. Featuring an average penalty count of 0.73 strokes per round, this course ranks behind only TPC Sawgrass and Pete Dye's Stadium Course in terms of expected reloads, and only two of the 14 driving holes on this property come without any danger of a potential hazard.

As a result of this ever-present threat, you'll often see players take a conservative approach around the Par 4s (and even 5s) this week. The average driving distance here sits nearly 25 yards lower than the historic mark of last week's venue (Vidanta Vallarta), and only three courses on the entire schedule have conceded a lower average driving distance since 2015.

With many of the field's preeminent bombers forced to stay in second gear around this routing, the door suddenly opens for the Tour's shorter, more positionally-savvy drivers of the ball to separate themselves around PGA National. In recent years, we've seen the likes of Zach Johnson, Kramer Hickok, Russell Henley, and Tyler Duncan all finish inside the top five in SG: OTT for the week -- a group of names you'd never see dominate a recent setup like Vidanta, Scottsdale, or Torrey Pines with their driving prowess.

This isn't to say that bombers are completely dead around this penal setup, as we've also seen Min Woo Lee, Cameron Young, Brandon Hagy, and Rory McIlroy utilize their immense length to great effect in recent years. However, the recent leaderboards around PGA National indicate that the advantage they typically enjoy is significantly reduced with so much peril awaiting to swallow up off-line tee shots.

When building my optimal off-the-tee profile for this week, reliability will play as large of a factor as any distance or other driving metric out there. In particular, positive history around this course will be weighed, as will historical acumen on other similarly positional golf courses with high penalty averages. In particular, I've built a positionally heavy driving model focused on Good Drive Percentage, Fairways Gained, and SG: OTT around the likes of Innisbrook, Harbour Town, Sedgefield, TPC Southwind, TPC Sawgrass, and Colonial CC, among others. If a player has shown a repeated ability to gain strokes in these three categories around the setups listed above, I have full confidence they'll be able to conquer a similarly strategic driving test this week.

 

PGA National by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 59.9%; Seventh lowest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: -0.054; Most Difficult on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 175-200 yards (accounts for 25.2% of historical approach shots)
  • 150-175 yards (22.9%)
  • 125-150 yards (17.2%)

If you thought the threat of water was limited to just a players' tee shots around PGA National, you'd be sorely mistaken, as this setup features as many hazards in play to players' approaching the green as we discussed off of the tee. In fact, 12 of the 18 greens around this routing are guarded by some water hazard. With nearly two-thirds of historic approaches coming from over 150 yards, players must be especially dialed in with their middle/long iron play to avoid adding to the ever-growing count of penalty strokes assessed by PGA National.

In the last section, we discussed the variety of different driving profiles that have managed to find success here at the Cognizant Classic, but iron play has been one facet of the game that has remained a consistent throughline as we scroll through the list of past champions. Champions here since 2012 have averaged a whopping 6.4 strokes to the field on approach, and only three winners in that time have managed to lift this trophy whilst gaining less than 5.9 strokes in that category (although none gained less than 3.3).

As such, identifying elite iron play will remain the most important aspect of my handicapping process this week in Palm Beach. As per most weeks, I'll be honing in on long-term proximity splits from my key range of 125-200 yards (a range that has accounted for 65% of approaches around PGA National), as well as recent splits around the likes of TPC Scottsdale, Riviera, and Wai'alae -- all venues that feature a similar emphasis on middle/long iron play.

However, given the danger of playing around the greens this week, I'll also be looking at metrics that reward a more calculated ball-striking approach. Stats like Green in Regulation % or Poor Shot Avoidance aren't typically markers to look at when most PGA Tour stops are set up as a race to 20-under-par. Still, on a week where winning scores have yet to peak past 15-under in the last 20 years, a safe approach shot to 35 feet can gain you a sizeable amount of separation compared to the field average. These "safety-first" metrics will be as key to my approach modeling as the typical proximity/birdie chance creation stats I lean on heavily every week.

 

PGA National by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 54.7%; 2.9% below Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- +0.016; 13th easiest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: +0.019; 11th easiest on Tour

One of the biggest surprises I found in my initial research for this week was the lack of predictiveness we've seen from Around the Green metrics at the Honda (now Cognizant) Classic. Top five finishers here on average have gained just 10.9% of their total strokes with their short games, which is a far cry from trends at other golf courses with similarly low green in regulation rates (Muirfield Village, Riviera, Augusta National, etc.).

When diving a bit deeper, a large portion of this could be since PGA National doesn't possess a particularly difficult set of greenside surrounds to scramble from. None of the fairway, rough, or bunkers here have ever ranked inside the top 10 in SG: Around the Green Difficulty, and last season, PGA National ranked in the bottom five in difficulty when chipping from the bunkers and the rough.

Therefore, it would seem that the depressed scrambling percentage we've historically seen around PGA National comes largely from the penalty strokes we've alluded to in each of the two ball-striking sections. As obviously, if a player is forced to get up and down from a drop zone 100+ yards from the green, his scrambling rate will be naturally lower than even the most brutal chipping areas 40 feet from the pin.

As such, avoiding bogeys around PGA National has proven to be just as closely tied to ball-striking as with touch around the greens. I will still be weighing metrics like Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling Percentage due to the historically difficult scoring conditions we've seen at this venue. Still, I'll also be much less inclined to eliminate a player based on a perceived deficiency around the greens.

 

PGA National by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- TifEagle Bermudagrass
• Stimpmeter: 12
• 3-Putt Percentage: 2.7% (0.47% below Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: +0.004; 11th easiest on Tour

After a stretch of tournaments with greens featuring a very limited comparable data set to draw from, the Tour's return to Florida sees the return of bermudagrass. As common as this grass is throughout the PGA Tour calendar, a key differentiating factor between the complexes at PGA National and some of the agronomically comparable greens of the fall/early 2024 season is the sheer speed at which they run. At 12-12.5 on the Stimpmeter, these greens rank as some of the fastest on the PGA Tour schedule (only matched by the likes of Bay Hill, Innisbrook, Sedgefield, and Quail Hollow in terms of fellow Bermuda courses).

As such, I'll draw primarily from the courses listed above when referencing historic putting splits and isolating for bermudagrass, but only when assessing a player's viability on these particular green complexes. Through the years, we've seen countless examples of players rebounding from a poor putting run through the poa annua greens of California as soon as they arrive on more familiar confines in the southeast, so I'll be placing much more weight on long-term splits on comparable green complexes as opposed to recent putting form.

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Russell Henley

Let Russ cook 👨‍🍳

Russell Henley sinks his longest putt of the week to grab a share of the lead @SonyOpenHawaii. pic.twitter.com/yxsFz6k0El

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 14, 2024

Since I've started betting on the PGA Tour every year, avoiding Russell Henley in the outright market sits at the top of my New Year's Resolutions. However, as his track record grows at PGA National and other courses like it, it becomes harder to ignore Henley when we arrive at a short, accuracy-intensive bermudagrass course. He may get a ton of (deserved) flack for his lack of end-product, but there is no more reliable entity in the game on this sort of setup. Between the Wyndham, Sony, and Honda, Russell has amassed an incredible nine top-twelve finishes over 11 starts since 2020, and, as usual, he rates out remarkably for the test he'll face again this week.

Henley ranks third in my three-year positional driving model, and outside of an outlier performance to start the year at Kapalua, he enters the week on a nearly twelve-month (17-start) run of positive approach weeks on the PGA Tour. There is no more consistent player in this field when projecting week-to-week iron play, and Henley is also one of the biggest risers when isolating for Bermudagrass putting splits. He ranks 15th in this field over his last 50 rounds on Bermuda, and on these greens last season, Russ recorded the sixth-best putting week of his entire career (+8.2) in a T3 finish.

Fresh off of his best iron week since last summer's TOUR Championship, Henley's game looks to be in as good a spot as ever to rack up another top finish around a perfect course fit. It's difficult to project him as any sort of forgotten entity, given his track record around PGA National. Still, with Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cam Young, and each of the last four Honda Classic Champions residing in this field, I'm optimistic that there'll be enough options at the top of the board to find a number in the mid-20s on Russell. The profile is too enticing to pass up if that projection comes to fruition.

• (Just make sure you subsidize your outright exposure with an each-way/placement bet to avoid maximum pain).

 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Christiaan Bezuidenhout sinks it from 41 FEET OUT on the 8th! 👏

📺: #THEPLAYERS | @NBC and @peacock pic.twitter.com/aoqZkystAe

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 11, 2023

Originally known as one of the PGA Tour's premier performers in difficult scoring conditions due to his world-class short game, Christiaan Bezuidenhout has spent the last 12 months reshaping his image into one of the more decorated iron players in this field. Over his last 75 rounds, the 29-year-old from Delmas, South Africa ranks sixth in my weighted proximity model, he's currently in the 85th percentile on Tour in Strokes Gained per Shot from 150+ yards, and the 89th percentile for Poor Shot Avoidance from that same range.

His recent ball-striking strides will be supplemented by his driving acumen around PGA National's positional layout, as Bezuidenhout has raised his OTT baselines on both of his trips to Palm Beach Gardens (+5.4 Strokes Gained in 8 competitive rounds) and ranks 35th in my aggregated positional driving model. If these trends hold up, Christiaan stands a great chance of adding to an already impressive track record here in the Sunshine State -- having recorded four top-20 finishes between Sawgrass and Bay Hill since 2020, and gained a cumulative total of 13.8 strokes on the greens over nine Florida starts in that time.

Like many of the DP World Tour's most decorated prospects, Bezuidenhout has taken a while to find his footing on U.S. soil. But with four top 10s to his name since last September and a recent run of top 30 finishes in three of the PGA Tour's premier West Coast stops (Riviera, Scottsdale, Pebble Beach), it feels as though Christiaan has arrived at the precipice of a breakout campaign. I think the difficult (and international-friendly) confines of PGA National make for the perfect backdrop to fulfill the potential we've known about for a long time. I'll be targeting Bezuidenhout at any price >50-1.

 

Adam Svensson

🇨🇦 Adam Svensson takes his first career 36-hold lead at the Players Championship. #ThePlayers

(via: @PGATOUR) pic.twitter.com/N5NHuDt4zu

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) March 11, 2023

For over a few weeks, Adam Svensson has ranked as one of the more underrated entities in my modeling. The right spot to deploy him has eluded us through the West Coast Swing thus far, but this week, as the Tour shifts to a positional, bermudagrass venue in the Southeast, PGA National would seem to be the perfect fit for the underlying numbers to bear fruit. Svensson has opened his 2024 account by gaining nearly 2.5 shots per tournament with his ball-striking, including an impressive 4.6 strokes gained in an elevated field at Riviera.

The putter was largely to blame for much of his underperformance from a results standpoint in California (-5.7 shots on the greens of Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, and Riviera). Still, as we shift to Bermudagrass in the Sunshine State over the next four weeks, I expect these struggles to fade for the Barry University alum and current Palm Beach resident.

In fact, on the ten occasions, Svensson has gained at least three strokes putting over the last two years, seven have come on Bermudagrass greens. He famously gained 9.2 strokes on the greens at Sea Island in his only ever PGA Tour victory to date, and if we're able to capture even a fraction of the short-game magic, he displayed that week here at PGA National, the rest of his game is in a great place to repeat the trick.

The Canadian ranks inside the top 25 in both of my key long-term ball-striking models (Positional Driving/Weighted Proximity), and recorded the second-best tee-to-green week of his entire career here at PGA National back in 2022 (+11.8). His recent 10th-place result at Riviera might sap some of the value I would have expected coming into his (adopted) home event, but in a field featuring 25 players ranked higher than him in the OWGR, it's more than feasible to expect him in the 50-60/1 range Monday morning.

 

 

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