Scouting the Routing: 2024 RBC Canadian Open

After one of the more memorable events in recent memory for its home nation, the Canadian Open returns to Hamilton Golf Club for the first time in five years. A fleet of talented Canucks will be looking to replicate Nick Taylor's glorious run at Oakdale, and make it two wins in 70 years for Canadians on home soil.

In order to repeat the trick, they'll have to overcome world No. 3 Rory McIlroy: a winner by seven last time he teed it up in Hamilton, as well as a selection of talented youngsters looking for a breakthrough win ahead of the year's penultimate Major.

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Hamilton Golf Club and the 2024 RBC Canadian Open!

The Golf Course

Hamilton Golf and Country Club - Par 70; 7,084 yards

Past Champions

• 2023 - Nick Taylor (-17) over Tommy Fleetwood (playoff)
• 2022 - Rory McIlroy (-19) over Tony Finau
• 2019 - Rory McIlroy (-22) over Webb Simpson/Shane Lowry
• 2018 - Dustin Johnson  (-23) over Byeong-Hun An/Meen-whee Kim
• 2017 - Jhonattan Vegas (-21) over Charley Hoffman (playoff)

Canadian Open's Played at Hamilton:

• 2019 - Rory McIlroy (-22); see above
• 2012 - Scott Piercy (-17) over Robert Garrigus & William McGirt
• 2006 - Jim Furyk (-14) over Bart Bryant

Hamilton by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 31.2 yards; 12th narrowest on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 285.3 yards; 11th lowest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 55.7%; 10th lowest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.40; ninth highest on Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (+0.004); 14th easiest on Tour

Although the most enduring recent image of Hamilton Golf Club for most golf fans is that of Rory McIlroy's scintillating 61 to close the deal in 2019, the rest of that year's leaderboard paints a bit of a different picture from the driver-heavy demolition put forth by the Northern Irishman five years ago. None of the other nine names on the first page of the leaderboard ended the year inside the top 80 on Tour in Driving Distance, and only Sungjae Im and Danny Willett ranked better than 120th.

Of course, at just 6,832 yards, Hamilton ranked as the second shortest course on the PGA Tour in 2019. This year, in preparation to host the world's best once again, the Harry Colt design has been lengthened by nearly 250 yards. Now tipping out at around 7,100, Hamilton won't be nearly long enough to worry professionals coming straight from venues like Valhalla or Quail Hollow, but it should be noted that many of the changes (to holes 2, 5, 7, 11, and 14 in particular), have added upwards of 15-40 yards onto a collection of some of the easiest par four's on Tour.

I do believe these changes give some credence to the importance of driving as a whole this week -- especially considering that back in 2019, Hamilton ranked as one of the most punitive courses on Tour to those who missed the fairway. At 0.40 strokes, Hamilton ranked ninth in Missed Fairway Penalty, seventh in Rough Penalty (+0.34), and third in Non-Rough Penalty (+0.58). It attained all of these rankings despite one of the lowest penalty fractions on the schedule, and in recent iterations of the Canadian Open (Oakdale and St. George's, specifically), we've seen a similarly harsh approach to off-line tee shots.

I see no reason to think those trends are due to reverse in 2024, so although the last two champions of this event at Hamilton have ranked 1st and 10th in driving distance over their respective campaigns, driving accuracy will be the more heavily relied upon of my off-the-tee metrics this week.

Hamilton by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 64.5%; 16th highest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (+0.008); 14th easiest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 200+ yards (accounts for 23.1% of historical approach shots)
  • 125-150 yards (19.2%)
  • 150-175 yards (18.8%)

Although Hamilton has been much more penalizing to off-line tee shots as opposed to misses on the second shot, iron play has remained the more predictive of the two ball-striking phases. In fact, over the last two iterations of the Canadian Open played at Hamilton, no player has finished better than T14 whilst losing strokes on approach and top five finishers have gained nearly as many strokes with their irons (2.58), as they have off-the-tee and around the greens combined (3.08).

Unlike the last few weeks, however, the distribution of approach shots here at Hamilton is pretty uniform. No single 25-yard range is more than 2.2% above its season-long average, and only the 175-200 range features a percentage share substantially lower than its expected weekly volume (13.0% vs 17.5%).

As a result, I will be leaning away from the specialty iron stats like Weighted Proximity, Good Shot Percentage, etc., and relying more upon general approach metrics like SG: Approach and Birdie Chances Created. From flip wedges into 360-yard par fours to long irons into mammoth 240-yard par threes, players will need to be able to execute a multitude of different iron shots this week.

Hamilton by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 58.1%; 0.5% above Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (+0.052); Second easiest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (+0.006); 13th easiest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.34); seventh toughest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (+0.000); 13th toughest on Tour

As I expect will be the case in many of these summer bentgrass birdie parties (3M, John Deere, Rocket Mortgage, etc.), there won't be much said in the industry on the importance of the short game at Hamilton Golf Club. On the surface, it's easy to see why -- as the top ten finishers have gained just 10% of their total strokes via the short game (nearly three times lower than that of approach play and four times lower than the historic predictiveness of putting).

However, when combing through the last two leaderboards here at Hamilton, there might well be more to the importance of around-the-green play than meets the eye. In those last two iterations, only four players have managed to finish better than 20th whilst losing strokes to the field around the greens (9.5%), and over half of the top-ten finishers have also ranked inside the top 20 in SG: ARG (10/19).

In addition, the first page of the 2019 leaderboard featured four different players who all ranked inside the top 25 that season in Scrambling (Rory, Webb, Snedeker, Sungjae) and the around-the-green complexes themselves (particularly out of the rough) here at Hamilton played as some of the toughest on Tour five years ago. Given the bump we've given to stats like Driving Accuracy in preparation for the penal rough on offer this week, I think it's only fair that Around the Green play (particularly on similarly difficult short game tests from the rough), receives some bump in my modeling.

Hamilton by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- V8 Creeping bentgrass
• Stimpmeter: 11-12
• 3-Putt Percentage: 3.5% (0.5% above Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.006); eighth toughest on Tour

Thus far, the historical trends and correlations have been rather muted. Aside from all-around approach play, driving accuracy, and some of the short game, nothing has really emerged as a key factor to look out for in this week's handicap. That is, until we turn to putting. The top five finishers over the last two Canadian Open events at Hamilton have gained an average of 5.0 strokes to the field on the greens. This figure almost outdoes the average marks of the rest of the three strokes gained metrics (5.63) on its own and, somehow, seems to sell itself short when scrolling through past leaderboards.

Apart from Robert Garrigus in 2012 (who lapped the field by six shots from tee-to-green), no player has finished better than seventh whilst gaining less than 3.2 strokes with his putter. In 2019, the top five, consisting of Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Matt Kuchar, and Brandy Snedeker, gained a combined 38.1 strokes to the field on the greens (compared to just 13.1 on approach and 10.3 off of the tee).

These historical trends point to this venue as one of the most lopsided putting contests you'll ever see in professional golf. Fortunately, between Craig Ranch, Valhalla, and Colonial within the last month, we have gotten ample opportunities to gauge these players' comfort on bentgrass greens. I'll weigh recent momentum and long-term splits on bentgrass as heavily as I have all season. Unless a player comes with elite tee-to-green upside, I'm going to need a substantial showing in at least one of those two metrics.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Bentgrass Putting + Recent momentum on the greens
• Iron play: specifically looking at more general approach stats given the flatness of second shot distribution. SG: Approach and Birdie Chances Created are my two most heavily weighted stats
• Positional Driving (Good Drive % + Fairways Gained), in addition to historic off-the-tee acumen at other short golf courses with high missed fairway penalties
• Birdie or Better Percentage/Birdie Conversion Rate
• SG: Around the Greens -- particularly on courses with thick rough surrounding the greens (Oakdale, St. George's, and Muirfield Village all come to mind whilst featuring similar agronomic properties to Hamilton).

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Corey Conners

Corey Conners plays a fantastic approach from 150 yards to set up birdie and move one back at the @RBCCanadianOpen. 📈🇨🇦

📺: Golf Channel and @peacock pic.twitter.com/pKTcGAYGIU

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) June 10, 2023

After Nick Taylor broke the 69-year Canadian drought at their home open, could another of his countrymen make it two on the bounce? With Taylor Pendrith's win at the Byron Nelson earlier in the month, the Canadians now boast an impressive six names in the top 100 of the World Golf Rankings. And although Taylor has undoubtedly given the country its greatest golfing highlights over the last 12 months, there has been no man more reliable in the Canadian camp than 32-year-old Corey Conners.

As the calendar approaches the month of June, Conners is approaching an incredible 12-month milestone without a missed cut. He's put together a stellar 2024 campaign: including six top 25s (four of which coming in elevated fields), and only two finishes outside of the top 40 since February.

The game logs are impressive enough as it is, but underneath the hood, it's clear that Conners may well be underachieving based on his recent play from tee-to-green. I don't think it's an understatement to call Corey's last few months one of the more impressive ball-striking runs in recent memory. He's currently on a run of 10 consecutive weeks with a positive Strokes Gained: Approach rating, and over his last six starts, Corey has gained an average of 5.2 shots to the field with his iron play.

Through five months of the 2024 campaign, Conners currently sits #2 on the PGA Tour (after Scottie Scheffler), in Strokes Gained: Approach -- a stat which is coupled splendidly with one of the more reliable drivers in professional golf (Second in Good Drive Percentage over his last 36 rounds; eighth in Driving Accuracy). And although Corey's greatest historic bugaboo has come on the greens, he's actually been an above-average putter over his last 50 rounds on Bentgrass (+0.04/round since the start of 2021).

Conners has also found success at each of his last two home Opens: recording finishes of 20th and sixth over his last two starts at Oakdale at St. George's. Given Hamilton's similarly positionally-intensive layout, I see no reason why Conners can't carry over that form to 2024, and follow the likes of Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, and Henrik Stenson as shorter, precision ball-strikers who found success around this track.

Time will tell if lightning is capable of striking twice for the home nation this week, but if there were ever a profile to tie your money to right now, Conners' metronomic ball striking is about as safe as it gets in the world of golf betting. I envision myself being exposed to Conners in a multitude of different avenues this week, and if his outright prices are allowed to drift into the mid-20s, I'm more than willing to make him my leading man in his home province of Ontario.

Aaron Rai

Birdie - Ace - Birdie to end the day.

Aaron Rai is now T3.#THEPLAYERSpic.twitter.com/TgYpgMOPs8

— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 11, 2023

I'm likely about to sound like a broken record from last week's article, but after gaining seven strokes ball-striking at Colonial, I see no reason to steer away from my affinity for Aaron Rai. The Englishman represents a very similar case to the one I made for Conners: using a combination of elite driving accuracy and stellar approach play to establish himself as a routine threat at these positional venues. He ranks second in my positional driving model on comparable off-the-tee layouts, and over his last 36 rounds, only Conners, Akshay Bhatia, and Keith Mitchell have gained more strokes with their iron play.

The 7.9 strokes he gained from tee-to-green last week will go down as not only the fifth-best performance of his entire PGA Tour career but the second time he's recorded a top-end performance around Colonial Country Club. However, there has been one set of courses for which Rai has experienced even more top-end success: the last two hosts of the Canadian Open. Between St. George's in 2022 and Oakdale in 2023, Rai has gained a combined 24.7 strokes from tee to green. These two weeks represent the best two performances of his PGA Tour career from this standpoint, and if not for a crucial three-putt on the par-three eleventh on Sunday, Rai could have very well found himself alongside Taylor and Fleetwood in last year's playoff.

As it stands this year, however, Rai enters the Canadian Open in some of the best-sustained forms we've seen from the 29-year-old. He's gained an average of 5.3 strokes from tee-to-green over his last five starts (more than two times his career baseline), while also rating out as an above average putter over the last two months. Rai proved last year that he's capable of contending for a win with even an average week on the greens (+0.1 strokes Putting in four rounds). With the way he's striking the ball now, I'm even more confident that the pieces are due to come together for another shot at that elusive maiden victory.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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