Scouting the Routing: 2024 American Express

As the PGA Tour makes its way onto the American mainland for the first time in the new year, golf fans will once again be "treated" to the first of two course rotations in the state of California. Now, while Pebble Beach's famed Pro-Am will undergo a bit of a facelift as a part of the PGA Tour's 2024 "Signature Series," the American Express has yet to garner the prestige required to streamline its format. As such, players will play three different courses (Pete Dye's Stadium Course, PGA West's Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club) over the first three days of the event, after which the top 65 and ties will earn their way into a Sunday shootout back at the Stadium Course.

From a handicapping perspective, the prospect of breaking down three separate golf courses for a given event would already convolute the usual process, but this week puts forth even more of an obstruction given the fact that two of the three courses (La Quinta and Nicklaus), do not carry Shotlink compatibility. Not only will this cause an inevitable headache in attempting to track your favorite golfers, but the absence of historical data makes it impossible to glean anything definitive from past results at these two venues. The Stadium Course, however, does not share the flaws of its running mates this week. I believe that with the data we have available to us for at least two of a player's four rounds, as well as a few breadcrumbs we can find within player quotes and documents from past iterations of this tournament, there is still an edge to be found despite the obstacles put in front of us.

This article will detail every actionable piece of information I have gathered on the venues in play this week, and will serve to help you make the most educated decisions possible on the betting board when odds drop Monday morning. Without further ado, here's my comprehensive scouting report on PGA West and the 2024 American Express!

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The Golf Course

Pete Dye Stadium Course - Par 72; 7,187  yards

Nicklaus Tournament Course - Par 72; 7,147 yards

La Quinta Country Club - Par 72; 7,060 yards

 

Past Champions

• 2023 - Jon Rahm (-27) over Davis Thompson
• 2022 - Hudson Swafford (-23) over Tom Hoge
• 2021 - Si Woo Kim (-23) over Patrick Cantlay
• 2020 - Andrew Landry (-26) over Abraham Ancer
• 2019 - Adam Long (-26) over Adam Hadwin and Phil Mickelson
• 2018 - Jon Rahm (-22) over Andrew Landry (playoff)

 

PGA West by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 33.7 yards; 16th widest on the PGA Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 59.2%; 15th Lowest on Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 281 yards; 9th lowest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.28; 4th lowest on Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: -0.024; 9th toughest on Tour

Seeing as how PGA West was not so subtly designed as a West Coast ode to TPC Sawgrass, it should come as no surprise that water was heavily leaned upon to create indecision for players off the tee. Nine of the 18 holes here at the Stadium Course feature some sort of hazard, and since 2016, only the original Sawgrass accounted for more penalty strokes per round.

However, unlike Sawgrass, PGA West's Stadium Course falls short in creating many interesting deterrents outside of its water features. The rough penalty sits at a paltry 0.17 shots (sixth lowest on Tour), and despite accounting for nearly a full penalty shot per round to the average player, the average difference in score between a drive in and out of the fairway sits at just 0.28 -- the fourth-lowest mark of any course on the schedule.

Here in lies the dilemma of the Stadium Course: outside of the five holes in which water is very much in play off of the tee, the rest of the layout is extremely susceptible to a bomb-and-gouge approach. Couple that with the fact that two of the aforementioned five are short par fours with opportunities given to club down, and you're only really left with three tee shots (5, 9, and 18) in which players have to truly take on a drive with water in play.

Although PGA West has some similar properties to TPC Sawgrass, it fails in one very key area: there simply isn't enough penalty afforded to players who decide to bail out in the face of danger. Take the 18th hole in Ponte Vedra: one of the most intimidating tee shots we see all year. The beauty of 18 at Sawgrass isn't just in the water that lurks down the entire left side of the hole, but also in the peril that faces those that miss down the right. As although a right miss at 18 does avoid the proposition of a re-tee, the gnarled rough and thick overhanging trees make a second shot from that side almost impossible to go for the green. And oftentimes, players who bail out off of the tee are simply delaying the inevitable (see: Cam Smith, Round 4, 2022).

As such, I'm not a huge proponent of total driving as a predictive stat around PGA West. If possible, I'd like to avoid players who are especially prone to big, wayward misses, but we've also seen many cases of erratic drivers of the ball find success at this venue (Tom Hoge, Lanto Griffin, Talor Gooch, Phil Mickelson, etc.). I'll be devaluing off-the-tee metrics as a whole, and instead focusing my attention on a part of the game for which I have complete certainty in its importance.

 

PGA West by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 66.7%; 14th highest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: +0.004; 15th easiest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 150-175 yards (has accounted for 23.5% of historical approach shots)
  • 75-100 yards (10.7%)
  • 100-125 yards (13.1%)

Over the last 10 years for which we have Strokes Gained data, elite iron play has proven to be far and away the most important skill to have around PGA West. Top-five finishers here in the desert have gained an average of 5.78 shots to the field on approach (compared to just 2.30 off the tee), and last year's champion, Jon Rahm, managed to overcome an extremely suspect putter over the weekend (-2.2 SG: Putting in Rounds 3 and 4) on the back of some incredible ball-striking splits at the Stadium Course (2.01 SG/Round).

That path to victory is basically unheard of at a golf tournament that is routinely won at scores of >25 under par, but given the volume of opportunities afforded to players with scoring clubs in hand, guys will be allowed to take aim at virtually every pin they come across. Nearly 30% of historical approach shots have come from inside 125 yards; a mark that bests the tour average by eight percentage points.

Though the Stadium Course is the only of the three venues for which we have a historic record of approach ranges, it only takes one look at the scorecards of La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament Course to find similar parallels to the distributions we alluded to above. As a collective, two-thirds (20/30) of the par fours contested between the three venues measure under 425 yards, and only six par fours all week will play over 450 yards.

Aside from the 12 par fives in play this week (which play as some of the easiest on the entire PGA Tour), these wedge shots into the shorter par fours at PGA West will be the clearest scoring opportunities available to players this week. I'll not only be looking at proximity splits from inside of 125 yards, but also birdie or better percentages from this range. With driving largely de-emphasized in my modeling, I'm placing a high level of trust in players who have proven to be exceptionally efficient in cashing in on these premium scoring chances.

 

PGA West by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 63.8%; 6.3% above Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.143); Most difficult on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: +0.046; 4th easiest on Tour

With decidedly more difficult venues like Torrey Pines, Riviera, and TPC Scottsdale on the horizon in this West Coast Swing, the time will inevitably come for the Tour's preeminent short-game wizards to make their mark. However, at a tournament that is routinely won at 26 or 27 under par, it's once again difficult to make a strong case for around-the-green play as a key metric. Green in regulation rates on these three golf courses sit well above Tour average (67, 69, and 74% respectively), and to those that miss in the proper spots, PGA West provides some of the simplest greenside surrounds on the entire schedule.

The "proper spots" this week will be shaded in green on your course map, as the Stadium Course ranks as the third easiest course to scramble from the fairway and the fourth easiest to scramble from the rough. The up-and-down percentage of 63.8% is comically high, and perhaps even more so when you consider the peril that surrounds these greens in the final area.

Strangely enough, PGA West ranks as one of the toughest courses on Tour to get up and down from the sand. Now, I'll admit my memory of the entire routing is a bit foggy, but if I were to bet, I'd say most of that figure would have to do with the cavernous bunker lying in wait on the left side of the 16th green. This 18-foot behemoth has an eight-minute long highlight reel all to itself on the PGA Tour's YouTube page (linked below), and you can be sure that at least another couple minutes will be added to the proverbial reel in this year's iteration.

Despite this iconic landmark, however, I don't see much reason to weigh sand saves in my overall modeling. Players who find themselves in this position will hardly be looking to do anything but escape its hold, and simply put, if you do find yourself short and left of the 16th green, you might as well treat this pitfall trap like the penalty area it is. I'd dare to say that no amount of short-game skill can be routinely relied upon from here. And in fact, over the last 10 years, winners of the American Express have rated out below field average in Sand Saves.

 

PGA West by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size -- 5,000 square feet 
• Agronomy -- Tifdwarf Bermudagrass (overseeded with Poa)
• 3-Putt Percentage: 1.9%
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: +0.008; 5th easiest on Tour

Welp, with driving and short game largely de-emphasized, and extra weight placed on birdie rate and other related scoring stats, you can probably guess what's coming in this section. Actually, let's turn it over to two-time AmEx Champion Jon Rahm for his thoughts:

It remains one of my favorite soundbites in the history of the PGA Tour -- mainly because it captures the same energy I feel whenever my bets lose to inferior ball-strikers whose only out is draining 25-foot putts every other hole -- but I digress.

Of course, the irony is that Jon Rahm managed to exorcise those demons the very next year whilst losing over two shots on the greens over the weekend. However, Rahm can also count himself as one of the best ball-strikers on the planet, and the negative splits with the putter only tell half of his story for the week. I would be very surprised to learn that Rahm's putter stayed that cold over the first two days at PGA West -- a 36 hole stretch that saw him make 17 birdies on route to matching 64's.

Putting remains the second most important metric in my modeling this week, as it's difficult for even the best ball-strikers on the planet to reach the lofty scores required to win this event without a smidge of help with the flat stick. In terms of corollary courses to look at, we have seen a fair amount of crossover between PGA West and TPC Summerlin: both easy, desert courses with overseeded greens, but given the lack of nuance present in these green complexes (fifth easiest to gain strokes on the entire PGA Tour), I'm just as predisposed to more general putting stats.

Specifically, I'll be taking a look at a player's acumen from inside 15 feet. With the forgiveness available to players off the tee, and the multitude of chances they'll receive with scoring clubs in hand, PGA West projects to give up premium birdie looks at one of the highest rates we'll see all year. At the end of the day, we can learn a lot from Jon Rahm's six-second outburst: any player who begins to run cold on these greens will quickly be shuffled into the right-hand lane.

 

Key Stats Roundup: 

• Generally lower on off-the-tee metrics compared to a normal week, but I do give a slight lean to accuracy over distance.
• SG: Approach + Birdie Chances Created are two of my key metrics, alongside Birdie or Better Rates from <125 yards
• Relying more on general putting stats like SG: Putting/Birdie Conversion Rate/Make Percentage 5-15 feet; Bonus points for positive history on other overseeded bermudagrass complexes
• Par 5 Scoring
• SG: Easy Scoring Conditions

 

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The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are 2-3 names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Patrick Cantlay

.@Patrick_Cantlay cards a final round 61 at @TheAmExGolf 💪pic.twitter.com/6EKUeShdNT

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 24, 2021

I don't suspect I'll be playing the role of contrarian with my headline selection this week, but frankly, if I wasn't writing up Patrick Cantlay at this venue, I don't know if he's ever likely to make the cut on the Sunday Shortlist. In four starts since 2019, Pat has recorded finishes of second, ninth, ninth, and 26th here in Palm Springs to go along with five top-two finishes at the Tour's other desert venues in Vegas and Scottsdale. It's difficult to draw many conclusions as to why Cantlay has been so prolific in the desert as a whole, but when you model him out for PGA West in particular, it becomes very apparent that he should continue to draw consideration as the man to beat in Palm Springs.

Cantlay rates out first in my key stat of Birdie or Better Rate from <125 yards, he ranks third in Par 5 Scoring, second in Total Driving, and first in Strokes Gained: Total in Easy Scoring Conditions. Cantlay's well-balanced approach means he's live to out-hit or out-putt you on a given day, and if both come together, we could see something akin to the 11-under 61 he closed with in an eventual runner-up finish to Si Woo Kim three years ago.

For a player who has been an ever-present threat at the top of so many recent leaderboards, it's hard to believe we're closing in on 18 months since Cantlay last lifted a trophy on the PGA Tour. Statistically, he's still one of the 4-5 best players currently walking the planet in an upcoming stretch of golf that has historically brought him so much comfort. I'm betting on that drought ending sooner rather than later. PGA West seems like as good a spot as any -- I'd be comfortable diving as deep as 14-1 on Patty this week.

J.T. Poston

Another first-team selection in my SG: Due rankings, J.T. Poston has spent the last six months piling on reasons for his backers to double down. In an 11-start stretch since the start of July, Poston has notched seven finishes of seventh or better -- keeping in mind that three of the events he failed to reach that mark were against some of the strongest fields of the entire year at the Open Championship and in the first two rounds of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. In non-elevated events, Poston has been nothing short of sensational: averaging 8.32 strokes gained on the average field, and rating out as one of the best iron players and putters in world golf.

Over his last 40 rounds, Poston rates out ninth in this field in SG: Approach, second in Birdie Chances Created, first in SG: Putting, and fifth in Proximity from <125 yards. Couple that recent stretch with two additional top-seven finishes over his last five appearances at PGA West, and we're once again presented with a prime opportunity for J.T. to pay off this career-best stretch with his third career PGA Tour victory.

Both of his other wins have come on shorter, wedge-intensive venues at Sedgefield and TPC Deere Run, and with much bigger ballparks on the horizon, it would seem PGA West is one of the last chances he'll have in a while to compete at a venue that maximizes his strengths.

I'm well aware that J.T.'s history around Palm Springs, as well as the continued run of form, will continue to depress his outright price, but at a venue like this, I value Poston every bit as highly as the players I expect to see in the 25-30/1 range. Let's hope the bridesmaid narratives persist just enough to see a number >35.

Taylor Montgomery

Pin seeking early 🎯

Taylor Montgomery cards his first birdie of the day @3MOpen. pic.twitter.com/n3pKORcww7

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 28, 2023

Let me start by saying any time you think about touting Taylor Montgomery as an outright bet, you're playing a dangerous game. Long-time readers and listeners will know that I'm not the biggest believer in Montgomery's overall trajectory, but if there were any venue on Tour where the Las Vegas native was made to thrive, it would be a few hours down I-15 in Palm Springs.

Montgomery embodies everything I tend to avoid in a golf bet: a generally unreliable ball-striker who is largely carried by parts of the game that are less projectable from week to week (short game/putting). However, PGA West is not the type of venue that can punish Taylor's regular missteps. Instead, Montgomery will be greeted with some of the widest effective landing areas on the PGA Tour (when accounting for the lack of rough penalty), as well as a bevy of chances to attack pins with his greatest statistical tee-to-green strength: wedge play.

Montgomery rates out as a well-below-average iron player overall, but many of his deficiencies can be flushed out when you devalue approach shots from over 150 yards. With a wedge in hand, Taylor has proven to be more than capable of keeping up with the world's best. In fact, the UNLV alum managed to gain over a quarter stroke per shot from 100-150 yards in 2023 (top- 30 on the entire PGA Tour).

If Montgomery can keep pace around this rather benign tee-to-green test, the strength of his game might just be one of the biggest X-factors in this entire field. Taylor leads this field over his last 50 rounds in SG: Putting, Birdie Conversion Rate, and Make Percentage from 5-15 feet. He also ranks ninth in my key metric of Birdie or Better Percentage from inside 125 yards.

With finishes of eighth and 12th over his last two starts and no result worse than 35th since last September, it seems as if Montgomery is regaining some of the mojo that had him squarely in Rookie of the Year conversations less than 12 months ago. I'm not entirely sure where this recent run (along with a fifth place finish in Palm Springs last year) will put him on odds boards, but the tools he possesses are certainly worth a look at any price >60-1.

 

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