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Looking for a high-floor, safe draft pick in fantasy football who can promise you steady production each week in 2022? Andersen Pickard identifies the safest option from every AFC team.
Picture this. You're on the clock in the third round of your fantasy draft, looking to take a receiver after you reached for running backs in the first two rounds. Your thumb hovers over the "draft" button for two players: one of them being a safe, reliable veteran, the other a rookie with extreme upside but a low floor and poor supporting cast. You take the second guy. A month later, you're dropping him to waivers and bracing for a last-place finish. Yikes.
For far too long, fantasy football managers have been burned by injuries and underwhelming performances. This is the product of taking risks, and while it's good to be bold, risks certainly don't pay off all the time. That's why it's time to identify the safest player from all 16 AFC teams, setting you up nicely to add some wholly reliable weapons to your fantasy roster.
This list comes with a caveat, of course. Playing it safe doesn't always correlate to success. It's imperative to balance your fantasy approach with some risk-taking and some conservative decisions. Without further ado, though, let's dive in.
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Buffalo Bills
QB, Josh Allen
The Bills have a lot of great, proven weapons, but there's none safer than Allen. The 26-year-old has now finished as the QB1 in back-to-back seasons and is the favorite to accomplish that feat again in 2022.
Not only did he throw for over 4,400 yards and 36 touchdowns last season, but he provided value with his legs, adding 763 yards and six scores on the ground. The Bills' talented signal-caller posted at least 21.9 fantasy points in 15 of his 17 games last season, and he even surpassed 30 points on eight occasions.
Not only is he the safest Bills player, but he's the safest fantasy quarterback and the clear-cut QB1 ahead of upcoming drafts.
Miami Dolphins
WR, Jaylen Waddle
Waddle had an instant impact as a rookie, catching his first touchdown pass in Week 1 and never looking back. He finished the season with 104 catches for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns en route to breaking the rookie reception record.
Although Miami did add Tyreek Hill to the fold, his presence says more about the outlook of the offense (more passes) than Waddle himself. Plus, Tyreek Hill commanded 9.4 targets per game in Kansas City last season while the now-departed DeVante Parker averaged 7.3 targets in Miami.
If Hill takes all of Parker's targets, that leaves just 2.1 more than he needs in order to reach his mark from last season. That's a small number and not nearly enough to impact Waddle's fantasy value. The young playmaker remains a steady fantasy option and should be a high-priority target in fantasy drafts.
New England Patriots
TE, Hunter Henry
There were a lot of options here considering how much the Patriots like to spread the ball around, but the best answer is undoubtedly Henry. Signed as a free agent over a year ago, Henry easily beat out Jonnu Smith for the starting job and never looked back.
He was one of Mac Jones' favorite targets last season, especially when the intensity ramped up in the red zone. He played in all 15 games, catching 50 passes for 603 yards and nine touchdowns.
His production did seem to dip in the second half of the season, but heading into 2022, he remains one of the Patriots' top options in the passing game and should benefit drastically as Jones looks to throw the football even more.
New York Jets
WR, Elijah Moore
There are going to be a lot of mouths to feed in New York, but many of them are newcomers. Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, C.J. Uzomah, and Tyler Conklin all have upside, but having never actually seen them suit up for Gang Green, we need to temper expectations.
One player who does have a year of experience under his belt is Ole Miss product Elijah Moore. He drew praise in training camp last summer and quickly lived up to the hype, posting 123.6 fantasy points from Week 7 to 13 and ranking as the WR3 during that span.
Although an injury cut his rookie season short, Moore should be fully healthy come Week 1 in 2022. The versatile playmaker should be moved all around the offense and will be a favorite target of Zach Wilson.
Baltimore Ravens
QB, Lamar Jackson
There were a lot of pieces to consider here. On one hand, Jackson is always a huge fantasy weapon due to his mobility and improved passing skills. On the other hand, an injury plagued much of his 2021 season.
Mark Andrews was in consideration, but is he really a safe option at his current ADP considering last year might have been his peak? Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are coming off injuries and Rashod Bateman has yet to open a season as the No. 1 wide receiver, so they aren't candidates. Thus, by process of elimination, we return to Jackson.
He was the QB1 in 2019, then posted the eighth-most fantasy points per game among eligible quarterbacks in 2020. In fact, even though he endured injuries in 2021, he was still a threat when healthy, once again finishing with the eighth-most fantasy points per game at the quarterback position.
He's a weekly top-12 quarterback with the potential to be the QB1 on a weekly or season-long basis. Outside of injuries, there's not much risk here.
Cincinnati Bengals
RB, Joe Mixon
Mixon might regress this coming season, but he's still a top-12 running back in one of the NFL's most threatening offenses. He finished as the RB4 in 2021 and proved that he can survive even when playing alongside budding stars like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Plus, a revamped offensive line featuring Alex Cappa and La'el Collins only boosts Mixon's fantasy status. Whereas players like Chase and Higgins rely on big plays and targets, respectively, Mixon's dual-threat ability and guaranteed usage out of the backfield gives him a safe floor while still maintaining a high ceiling.
At the end of the day, the goal is to find players with a high volume of touches in a good offense. Mixon fits that description, and there's no doubt that he's a weekly RB1.
Cleveland Browns
RB, Nick Chubb
With Deshaun Watson's status very much up in the air, we have to look to a different position for safety. Although he cedes passing game volume to Kareem Hunt, Chubb is still one of the safest players in fantasy football due to his rushing ability.
The big-bodied back somewhat resembles Derrick Henry with his physical style of downhill running, ability to break tackles, and frequency in finding the end zone. His ceiling is capped due to a lack of receptions, but his floor is one of the highest in the NFL.
He's a very appealing option towards the end of the first round or the start of the second round in most drafts.
Pittsburgh Steelers
RB, Najee Harris
Although Najee Harris comes with a fairly steep price tag, he remains the Steelers' safest fantasy weapon due to his strong rookie campaign in 2021. Harris avoided the dreaded midseason brick wall that many rookie running backs hit and instead finished the season as the RB3 in PPR leagues.
Despite being a rookie and playing in one of the NFL's most struggle-prone offenses, the Alabama product was a fantastic weapon for fantasy managers across all leagues. Consistently productive, Harris posted at least 15.7 fantasy points in 13 of 17 games.
Although nobody with a first-round ADP can be described as extremely safe, there's no denying that Harris is a very reliable option and could be on many championship teams by season's end.
Houston Texans
WR, Brandin Cooks
When you think of safety at the wide receiver position, you think of Cooks. He has six top-20 fantasy finishes over the last seven years and exceeded 1,000 receiving yards in all six of those seasons. In an offense starving for reliable production, Cooks is the main guy.
He developed a strong rapport with both Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills, and his efficiency should only increase as he enters his second year with the latter quarterback.
Indianapolis Colts
RB, Jonathan Taylor
There's not much debate here. Although someone like Michael Pittman Jr. offers plenty of excitement, Taylor is easily the safest choice after posting 2,171 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns in 2021.
Just one year removed from his RB6 finish as a rookie, Taylor emerged as Indianapolis' clear-cut starter and did not look back. His 373.1 fantasy points last season easily ranked as the overall RB1, and he remains the favorite to finish atop the leaderboard once again in 2022.
Although the Colts did undergo a quarterback change by replacing Carson Wentz with Matt Ryan, Taylor's outlook still gleams with positivity. He has another year of experience, arguably gets a quarterback upgrade, continues to play for a talented head coach in Frank Reich, and most importantly, will run behind one of football's scariest offensive lines. If you're picking at the 1.01, you're taking Taylor and feeling very, very good about it.
Jacksonville Jaguars
QB, Trevor Lawrence
The Jaguars' offense leaves a lot to be desired in the "safe" department. At wide receiver, Jacksonville said goodbye to D.J. Chark and welcomed Christian Kirk. Although the latter had a great 2021 campaign, the $84 million contract that he received was awfully rich for a receiver who has never topped 1,000 yards or six touchdowns in a single season.
At tight end, Dan Arnold and Evan Engram will compete for usage and can't be considered safe. In the backfield, James Robinson's injury status remains up in the air while Travis Etienne Jr. still hasn't played a snap in the NFL. By process of elimination, the title of safest Jaguar falls upon Trevor Lawrence ahead of his second pro season.
The former Clemson star and No. 1 pick struggled in 2021, but much of the blame can be placed on poor roster construction and the woeful leadership of failed head coach Urban Meyer. During Meyer's time with the Jaguars (Weeks 1 to 14), Lawrence was the QB26. In the four weeks that Darrell Bevell commanded the team, Lawrence improved to the QB17.
With another year of experience, an improved offense, and a massive coaching upgrade in the form of Doug Pederson, Lawrence should take a leap forward. He's a steady No. 2 quarterback option and specifically offers plenty of value in Superflex formats.
Tennessee Titans
WR, Robert Woods
All eyes are on the Titans after Derrick Henry's 2021 was plagued by injury, Ryan Tannehill took a step backward, and A.J. Brown was traded away. Although rookie Treylon Burks might be the early favorite to fill Brown's shoes, the acquisition of Woods from Los Angeles has flown very far under the radar.
The veteran wideout was an extremely safe fantasy option from 2018 to 2020, missing just one game during that span while finishing as the WR14 or better in each of the three seasons—and that was with Jared Goff as his quarterback.
Last season, Woods was the WR12 in fantasy through the first nine weeks before tearing his ACL. That means that he was just one injury away from four consecutive top-14 finishes. If that's not the definition of safe, then what is?
Denver Broncos
RB, Melvin Gordon
Nobody likes old running backs, but that bias should go out the window when the player in question has six consecutive top-22 finishes. Gordon, 29, has overcome competition in the past, showing that he can still have fantasy relevance despite playing alongside guys like Austin Ekeler and Javonte Williams.
Just because he's not being tasked with an every-down role doesn't mean that Gordon shouldn't be started as an RB3 or FLEX on a weekly basis. Just last season, Gordon posted 1,131 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns while playing alongside a budding star running back and one of the worst quarterback situations in the league.
The Broncos' offense was bad, and yet Gordon still finished as the RB22. He's slightly more appealing in standard leagues than PPR formats, but his ability to run the ball and find the end zone still makes him a safe option across the board.
Kansas City Chiefs
TE, Travis Kelce
Kelce's otherworldly streak of five consecutive TE1 seasons came to an end last year when he finished as the (gasp) TE2.
You could argue that he was Patrick Mahomes' favorite target even when Tyreek Hill was in town, so now that the speedster has been traded to Miami, Kelce's role is even more clear. The 32-year-old is averaging 1,212 yards and eight touchdowns over each of the last six seasons, and his end-zone production has only increased since Mahomes' emergence.
Kelce remains one of the safest players in fantasy football and should continue to be drafted as the top tight end. Just like last year, his incredible positional value makes him a worthwhile selection in the back of the first round.
Las Vegas Raiders
WR, Hunter Renfrow
Renfrow beats out trustworthy quarterback Derek Carr and newcomer Davante Adams for this title. Although those two players are certainly intriguing and have posted steady floors in the past, their ADPs since the trade with Green Bay have risen to a point where drafting them carries a bit of risk. Inversely, Renfrow's price is dropping, which is disappointing considering how much praise he drew in 2021.
There seems to be this belief that the Raiders' addition of Adams spells the end of high-quality fantasy production from Renfrow, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Not only can the two co-exist, but Renfrow has earned enormous amounts of Carr's trust.
After all, Renfrow formed a very strong rapport with Carr in 2021 while Adams hasn't played with the signal-caller since 2013. Renfrow finished as the WR11 last season, notching double-digit fantasy points in 14 of 17 games. He went on to earn a much-deserved extension and remains a very safe option in a Las Vegas offense that continues to trend upward.
Los Angeles Chargers
QB, Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert is blossoming into one of the top fantasy players, and it would not be surprising to see him challenge Josh Allen for the QB1 title in 2022. While Herbert lacks the top-tier running ability of some of the best fantasy quarterbacks, he still has plenty of mobility.
The Oregon product can extend plays with his legs and mount long drives that culminate in passing touchdowns. The fact that he has two uber-talented wide receivers and one of the NFL's best pass-catching running backs doesn't hurt, either.
Herbert was the QB9 in 2020 and QB2 in 2021, posting a total of 69 touchdowns and just eight interceptions during that span. Going forward, not only does he have great weapons at his disposal, but he's playing in a competitive, high-scoring division that will require him to keep racking up passing yards and touchdowns deep into games.
If you're willing to spend an earlier pick on a quarterback, Herbert's safety week in and week out could go a long way in your pursuit of a fantasy title.
For more fantasy football help throughout the offseason, regular season, and playoffs, follow Andersen on Twitter @AndersenPickard.
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