RB Committees to Avoid in 2020

May 3, 2020

Nobody likes a running back committee. Nobody besides Austin Ekeler, I guess, but that's a story for another day. We fantasy football owners want clarity in the backfield. If we have the chance to draft a bell-cow a la Christian McCaffrey in 2019 we're always going to pull the trigger no matter what the outcome ends being. Just the fact that the man will carry the ball and be targeted more than 25 times per game and surpass the 400-opportunity mark over the year is more than enough for us to drool over the potential results.

But that is not what happens in every NFL team and backfield. Running backs often find themselves splitting time with teammates and peers, whether because they lack receiving/rushing abilities, or just on a pure health-management basis. Not every committee is bad for fantasy purposes, sure, but I'd always err on the safe side of things by targeting one-man backfields early rather than gambling on shared partnerships.

With that in mind, here are some potential teams expected to run fantasy-killing running back committee schemes that I'd rather avoid in drafts and just target late if I still really want some of their assets badly.

Denver Broncos

Say hi to the most ridiculous backfield in the NFL entering the 2020 season. This was already a headache prior to the 2019 season, confirmed itself as a legit one as the year ran its course, and although by the end of the season things were a little bit clear in terms of who's who (Phillip Lindsay, as expected, bested Royce Freeman everywhere) Denver's backfield was one to avoid if you didn't want to be upset weekly with usages and production.

Just in case a very even split wasn't enough (Lindsay finished the year with 272 opportunities, Freeman with 182), the Broncos doubled-down on their committee-tendencies and signed Melvin Gordon this past free agency. Just in case you wonder how the backfield looks like if looking at the full picture (2019 opportunity data depicted) here it is.

Your eyes are not lying to your brain. Denver has built a backfield in which three 150-opportunity players (at the very least) will have to share the rock weekly. To Lindsay's 272 opportunities and Freeman's 182 Denver is adding Gordon's 217 last year in Los Angeles (and he already shared duties there with Austin Ekeler). All of these three players logged more than 11 opportunities per game last year on their teams, and none is going to be content with seeing that number fall.

Obviously, Freeman is probably going to be the odd-man-out of the three given he's the less productive of the bunch. Even with that, though, Gordon and Lindsay are still a couple of no. 1 players and would lead any backfield in the NFL, so it's going to be a weirder and more problematic situation in Denver this season than it already was in 2019. Gordon is the best overall player of the three (6.5 receiving PPG, 8.6 rushing PPG), but things are not that clear between Freeman and Lindsay. Lindsay is the best rusher (8.9 ruPPG) but Freeman was better receiving (4.6 rePPG to Lindsay's 3.4).

It's going to be a good bunch of disappointing games from all three here and there through the season, so if you want to avoid letdowns just skip any member of this backfield.

New England Patriots

There are good backfields to target, and perhaps New England's is one of them. I have not turned crazy including it in a piece about "committees to avoid", bear with me. The problem with the Patriots backfield and it's committee approach is that it might bee too geared toward specialization that it is just not worth paying for early in drafts.

I'm the first one to encourage drafting specialized players later in drafts as they often provide points in ways other players just can't. But when it comes to targeting starting running backs (say your RB1 and RB2 for the season) you should walk other paths. If you don't believe this being the case with the Patriots, just look at their three most-used tailbacks last season.

Even Rex Burkhead logged 100+ opportunities in 2019 and almost eight chances per game for the Pats. But that is not the most concerning thing about this trio of "rushers". That is, as the plot makes clear, how they performed while given those opportunities. Sony Michel was a pure runner who produced almost exclusively on the ground (8.2 ruPPG compared to just 1.3 rePPG) while James White did almost all of his work catching passes (11.2 rePPG compared to 2 ruPPG).

Again, I'm the first owner you'll meet on draft day snatching some James White shares, but you won't see it happen until I've gotten my surefire couple of starters at the position first. There are a few players at the running back position I like more than White given his unique profile, but I just can't gamble on him early given his usage and role in New England's backfield. Not only will Michel--and Burkhead and whoever comes next--eat from his opportunities (and vice-versa), but his numbers will be limited to just one part of the game. Too much of a risk in terms of usage and abilities to seek this backfield's assets aggressively early.

San Francisco 49ers

I'm sorry if I disappoint you, or if you don't like my take, but I'm not convinced at all about Jimmy Garoppolo being any good at quarterback. Sure, he carried the 49ers to the Super Bowl. He also overthrew Emannuel Sanders and kept his team from getting a chip this past February, just in case. Garoppolo finished the 2019 season as the QB14 and averaged a meh 15.7 PPG good for QB21 among those with at least 10 games played at the position. Perhaps that explains why San Francisco (48.6% passing plays) finished the year with the second-lowest passing-play percentage only behind Baltimore (45.9%) and just one of two teams with more runs than passes over the season.

You might think that can only mean one thing: rushing attempts galore! Sure, that was the case, only that those attempts were shared in such a way that they made the 49ers backfield fantasy-unplayable. Worst of all, it was also a mixture of shared usage and specialized players.

The plot above lets you see quickly how the three most-used players of the 49ers at the running back position all logged between 11.9 (Tevin Coleman) and 9.9 (Raheem Mostert) opportunities per game in 2019 with all reaching at least 145 total opportunities over the season. When looking at them on a weekly basis, all three had at least two games in which they racked up 14+ fantasy points (Matt Breida had two, Coleman three, Mostert four), but also three or more games each in which they fell under five fantasy points through the year.

In a pass-depressed, run-heavy offense, none of the three rushers was a heavy producer through the air and none of them averaged more than 3.2 (Coleman) rePPG while they were pretty similar in terms of rushing production (Moster averaged 7.6 ruPPG, Coleman 6.4, and Breida 5.1). Everything was so close in every department (usage and production) that this backfield turned into a real-life safety valve for the franchise but a headache for fantasy owners.

For 2020 Matt Breida will be rushing the ball in Miami instead of San Fran, but that doesn't mean both Coleman and Mostert will stop battling for touches in the 49ers backfield. While Mostert finished the 2019 season strong, it looks like HC Shanahan favors Coleman. Consider Mostert the no. 1 back of this offense, but keep in mind that Coleman will take more than a few opportunities from Mostert during the whole season if he can stay healthy.

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