X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Rookies Expected to Struggle Early in 2020

Antonio Losada highlights some different rookies around the league that might find it hard to produce during the first few weeks of the season, making them avoidable in re-draft leagues and only worth getting through waivers later in the year.

If you know how DFS football works, then you know every week you have the chance to pick the best-looking players for the scheduled slate of games. For those playing season-long leagues, that's not an option. Once you draft your team you must stick to your decisions and only make minimal tweaks through the waiver wire. That's why you need to go for the best options from day one to not lose too much ground earlier in the season. That means that some rookies, although expected to become great players eventually, might take too long to establish themselves in the league to consider them viable in re-draft leagues.

The longer you hesitate on putting a player in your starting lineup, the worse. You don't have many bench spots available, so better to fill them with the best options and make sure all of them can be used as last-minute starters any given week from the first one on. This is often the case with rookie wide receivers and tight ends that might take a few weeks to become important and trusted pieces of an offense.

Today, I'm pointing at a few rookie WRs/TEs that look good in terms of season-long projections but that might take more than a few weeks to establish themselves on their teams prior to becoming true fantasy-point producers. Avoid taking these players in your draft if you don't want to lose a very valuable amount of points during the first games of the season. Let's get to it!

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

WR Henry Ruggs III - (WR, Las Vegas Raiders)

The Raiders spent a top-12 draft pick on Ruggs earlier this offseason and he surely looks poised to become one of the go-to options on offense starting in Week 1. Las Vegas isn't exactly stacked at the receiver position, featuring the likes of Hunter Renfrow, Tyrell Williams, and Nelson Agholor among their best pass-catchers, and also Darren Waller (along with Jason Witten) at the tight end position. That should make Ruggs one of -- if not the -- bests wide receivers in tow.

But Ruggs has some things going against him. First of all, he suffered an accident a few weeks ago and although he should be ready for training camp and seems to not carry any damage there are still doubts surrounding his current situation. Then, although the WR corps doesn't look deep nor features any elite talent, that could also mean that the share of targets will be more balanced than otherwise. Finally, and until he proves to be as good in the pros as he was at the collegiate level, it's fair to expect Derek Carr to target other pieces with whom he has built a rapport already (namely Waller and Renfrow) rather than throw too many balls to Ruggs.

If Ruggs doesn't rack up points for a few weeks to start the year you might be losing some precious points and putting your season in danger of falling apart before you realize. In the past five seasons, only four rookie-WRs were able to average more than 15 PPR points during the first four weeks of those years.

 

Justin Jefferson - (WR, Minnesota Vikings)

Another first-round draft pick, Jefferson enters the season as the potential WR2 of a Vikings offense that just lost its most productive receiver from 2019 in Stefon Diggs and is also looking at a possible holdout from stud RB Dalvin Cook to start the season. Jefferson, drafted 22nd overall, will have Adam Thielen as his main rival for targets at the receiver position. As far as tight end goes, though, he might find himself fighting for passes with the likes of Irv Smith Jr. and Kyle Rudolph in two-TE sets early in the year.

Don't forget either that the Vikings are a run-first team and that QB Kirk Cousins kept it lower-than-low last year when it came to passing volume numbers. PFF projects Jefferson to finish 2020 with 79 targets and 624 yards (four TD) for a WR57 season-end rank. That doesn't sound bad for a FLEX option, but if Jefferson (as one could expect) takes at least one-quarter of the season to establish himself in Minny then he shouldn't be more than waiver wire fodder.

Cousins' track-record with rookie WRs/TEs isn't that good, either. All of Bisi Johnson, Irv Smith, Tyler Conklin, Josh Doctson, and Jamison Crowder averaged five or fewer targets during their first four weeks in the league playing under Cousins, and none averaged more than 7.5 PPR in those games combined.

 

Cole Kmet - (TE, Chicago Bears)

While the Bears added TE Jimmy Graham after signing him to a rather lucrative deal (which looks like an overpayment) earlier this year, the future at the position will surely go through Cole Kmet. Chicago spent a second-round pick in the Notre Dame product making Kmet the first TE off the 2020 draft board. The problem with rookie tight ends, though, is that it usually takes them some time for them to find their footing among pros. On top of that and in Kmet's case, add a veteran tight end (Graham) starting the year as the TE1 of Chicago's offense.

Just looking at data from the last 10 years, the only two rookie TEs to play in the first four weeks of their first seasons in the NFL and average at least 10 PPR points in those games were Aaron Hernandez (10.8) in 2010 and Evan Engram (11.2) in 2017. Other 21 TEs played four games but missed on the PPG mark, and 74 other players at the position didn't even make it to four games...

Put everything together (the Bears depth chart, the ongoing starting-QB battle, Kmet's rookie year, the history at the position for rookies) and things don't look too good for Kmet to start the year with a bang.

 

K.J. Hamler - (WR, Denver Broncos)

If there is a word to define Hamler, that could be "burner". Hamler, one of the fastest and better deep threats of the entire 2020 NFL draft, was picked 46th overall by Denver just months ago after the team also drafted Jerry Jeudy in the first round. The Broncos are undergoing a facelift on their receiving corps, which will feature five players entering their third season or less in WRs Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton and TE Noah Fant, and three freshmen in WRs Jeudy and Hamler and TE Albert Okwuegbunam.

With such a young offense (which also includes sophomore-QB Drew Lock) it is hard to predict what will happen in Denver. The most logical path for Lock to follow would be the one going (mostly) Sutton, Fant, and Jeudy's way. Sutton and Fant are already proved players, and Jeudy should get the second-most targets among receivers. Hamler's profile as a long-pass catcher should make him the go-to option on those routes, but these are volatile plays with upside but hard to pull off.

Hamler is also one of the smallest rookie receivers of the past 20 years. In that span, only 42 rookies weighing in at 180 or fewer pounds have played at least one game, and just 13 of them logged a snap in the first four games of their rookie years. Only three among that group (Tavon Austin, DeSean Jackson, and Marquise Brown) averaged more than 7.5 PPR points in those four games.

 

Antonio Gibson - (RB/WR, Washington Redskins)

Gibson was Washington's second pick in the 2020 draft (66th overall) after selecting DE Chase Young with the second overall pick. It is still unclear which role will Gibson play in the NFL, as it is not clear if he's a running back, a receiver, or a true hybrid capable of taking on both positions' duties. PFF has Gibson projected to receive 57 targets, which are the third-most in Washington's offense behind Terry McLaurin and Steven Sims Jr.

As it is the case in Denver (read above), Washington has a very young receiving corps in which second-year options should be those getting the most chances, even more considering second-year man Dwayne Haskins Jr. will be the starter at QB.

The doubts surrounding the role of Gibson in the offense, the use Washington will make of him (running back in an already clogged backfield? receiver? one-off specialist returner?...), and the fact that he's a newcomer doesn't bode well at least for Gibson's first few weeks as a pro. He could be a boom option in your lineup, but the high chances at an early set of "bust" performances cut his upside in half.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
NHL

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NHL

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NHL

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
NHL

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
NHL

Vladislav Gavrikov Inks Seven-Year Deal with Rangers
NHL

Tanner Jeannot Moves to Boston
NHL

Corey Perry Joins Kings on One-Year Deal
K'Andre Miller

Hurricanes Pick Up K'Andre Miller
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Houston Rockets

Jeff Green Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Andrei Kuzmenko

Signs Up for One More Year with Kings
Morgan Geekie

Signs Long-Term Extension with Bruins
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF