Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Rookie Roulette - Which First-Year QB Should Go #1 in Dynasty Drafts?


Football fans know which quarterback was taken first in this year’s NFL Draft, but now fantasy football owners want to know which QB should go first in dynasty drafts.

The 2017 rookie quarterback crop is not loaded with any sure starters for this season, but there are plenty of potential passers for future seasons. Many of the quarterbacks are run-pass dual threats who can rack up yards through the air and on the ground and were able to pile up the points during their storied college careers. There is no doubt a couple of them, while they might not help fantasy squads much in 2017, could be perennial fantasy keepers over the next decade.

So which rookie quarterback should come off the board first in dynasty drafts?  Here is my take on the four top candidates and who should be picked first:

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Top Rookie Quarterbacks for Dynasty

Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears

Chicago shocked everybody when they traded up to snag Trubisky with the second overall pick, but it was not shocking because Trubisky was such a stretch. It was because the Bears had just plunked down $45 million on Mike Glennon earlier in the offseason. Trubisky was ranked as the top quarterback coming out of college on most draft boards and has been pegged as a future franchise quarterback by some.

Trubisky has an accurate, above-average arm and can be the best pure passer of the rookie bunch because he is solid in the pocket. All he needs is smart coaching, Chicago to FINALLY acquire some decent receivers he can throw to, and for Glennon to politely get out of his way (or be shoved out of the way). He also needs an offense where there are plenty of designed roll-outs that maximize his skills. 2017 will probably not be the year for the second and third of those things to transpire, but hopefully in 2018 and beyond he will be Chicago’s centerpiece and become a fantasy centerpiece.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

It is obvious that the Chiefs need a gamebreaker and not a game manager running their offense. Alex Smith is limited in what he can do because of his lack of arm strength and his penchant for opting for conservative checkdowns over riskier passes 20-plus yards downfield. The future of Kansas City’s offense is definitely brighter with the multi-talented Mahomes at the helm, although little should be expected from him in redraft leagues this upcoming season.

Mahomes is as much of a project as a home renovation you see on HGTV. He is a raw talent who is used to throwing out of a shotgun in a spread offense and now has to be taught the ways of a more conventional NFL offense. This will likely take some time. Mahomes will also have to learn to cut down on the turnovers (29 INT in 32 college games) and prove that quarterbacks from college spread offenses can succeed in the NFL. K.C. head coach Andy Reid always milks the most out of his quarterbacks, and Mahomes might be the most talented one he has had since Reid and Donovan McNabb had so much success together in Philadelphia.

 

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

Watson was drafted after Trubisky and Mahomes, but the difference in talent between him and those two is negligible. Watson might not have been as highly-rated as Trubisky and Mahomes entering the draft, but he had a much better resume than that pair. He put an emphatic period on his college career by defeating Alabama in the BCS Championship game and torching the Tide’s top-ranked scoring defense for 420 passing yards and four total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing). If the kid can play that well on that stage against that defense, he is certainly ready for the pros.

The only thing standing between Watson starting and throwing 15 passes per game at fantasy superhero DeAndre Hopkins is Tom Savage, an injury-prone backup who has not thrown or ran for a touchdown in the five NFL games he has seen action in. This doesn't sound like much competition. Watson might win the starting job straight out of training camp, and at worst should get a crack at running the offense at some point during the season.

 

DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns

Kizer was not taken until the second round, but do not underestimate his skills. The Notre Dame product is a double threat as he has an NFL arm and body yet can get the ball over the goal line via his legs a la Cam Newton when near the end zone. But his aforementioned body and right arm is what impressed scouts and should titillate fantasy owners. Kizer is built like a brick igloo, and no rookie quarterback has the arm strength, the velocity on his throws and the ability to make all the passes on the field like Kizer can. To top it off, Kizer came out of a pro-style offense, so he is a little ahead of some other rooks when it comes to learning the NFL game.

While Cleveland might be shorter on talent than the performers on The Gong Show, they do have players at the skilled positions that can help Kizer, with a couple being young enough that they can grow and improve right along with Kizer. First-round pick David Njoku is a playmaking tight end with wide receiver speed. Veteran Kenny Britt is coming off his first 1,000-yard year, while Corey Coleman is looking to bust out in his sophomore season after injuries slowed down his promising rookie campaign. The two-back attack of Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr. will also take pressure off Kizer with their running and receiving ability out of the backfield. All Kizer has to do is beat out the undertalented Cody Kessler and the overpaid Brock Osweiler and the keys to Cleveland’s offense could be his for the foreseeable future. The biggest problem for Kizer is the organization he is a part of now.

 

Verdict

So which of the foursome is the rookie QB you should go after first in your dynasty drafts? I cross Kizer off the list because of Cleveland’s well-documented history of horrendous quarterbacks (Tim Couch, Brandon Weeden, Brady Quinn, Charlie Frye, the list goes on…) over the past 17 years. Kizer has a lot to overcome to become a decent quarterback in Cleveland.

Mahomes might have the best all-around skills of the rookie quartet, but he also probably has the biggest learning curve. He will likely need the most practice time to get transformed into an NFL quarterback due to the offense he primarily played in during college. Mahomes could end up being the best of the bunch, but it might not happen until 2020, and fantasy owners normally do not have that kind of patience.

Trubisky is the highest-regarded rookie QB coming into the season, but he has more doubters than President Trump's Twitter followers. Trubisky could become a superstar, or he could become the next Heath Shuler or Akili Smith. If Mike Glennon gets off to a good start and the Bears offense is decent, Trubisky might ride pine a lot over the next couple years.

That brings us to Watson, who has the clearest sight line to a starting spot. His smallish stature and reckless running style might lead to injury, yet the way he has proven he can accumulate yards and score in bunches under the brightest spotlights against the toughest defenses has to make him attractive to fantasy owners. He can be Houston’s starting quarterback for the next several seasons and is poised to put up 3,500 passing yards, 500 rushing yards and 25-35 touchdowns per season as long as he stays healthy. I would allow others in my dynasty leagues to take Trubisky and Mahomes off the board first and then sneak in for Watson and enjoy his fruitful career.

 

More 2017 Dynasty League Strategy




More Recent Articles

 

Bases Loaded Podcast - Relief Pitchers Preview

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is joined by Jorge Montanez, Zach Braff and Mike Simione as they jump into their relief pitcher preview! Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Jose Urquidy

It's been a tumultuous winter for the Houston Astros. Not only were they embroiled in a sign-stealing scandal (which has, naturally, progressed apace to unsubstantiated conspiracy theories about ever more sophisticated methods of cheating), but they watched staff ace Gerrit Cole sign a mammoth free-agent deal with the Yankees. Plenty of virtual ink has been... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Mark Canha

Mark Canha had a solid 2019 campaign and is one player that probably deserves more attention heading into 2020 than he is currently receiving. He finished the season hitting .273/.396/.517 with 26 HR, 58 RBI, 80 R, and 67 BB in 410 at-bats. It was a very productive line for a guy that played in... Read More


Four Prospect Sleepers for 2020 Redraft Leagues

Recently, Rotoballer launched a list of the Top 50 MLB prospects for the coming year. The top of the list was populated by names such as Gavin Lux, Luis Robert, and Brendan McKay. These players, among others, feature a promising combination of talent and favorable playing time projections to suggest they’ll be the cream-of-the-crop among... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis – Robbie Ray vs Trevor Bauer

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft... Read More


2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Second Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – C.J. Cron

As another fantasy baseball season approaches, we once again have the chance to discuss C.J. Cron as a fantasy sleeper. Cron will be playing for his third team in three seasons. It is tough to wrap one's head around the idea that a player of Cron's talent continues to be undervalued by professional and fantasy... Read More


2020 Starting Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a very different strategy if you wish to truly compete. All preseason long, RotoBaller has you covered with the latest rankings for all fantasy baseball league types. Here we present our points league rankings... Read More


Second-Half Improvements: Buy Into These Starting Pitchers

The second half of the season is always put under a microscope for starting pitchers. Fantasy players have a love for the second half of the season, as the belief is that pitchers who take a step forward could carry over that success the next season and perhaps even build upon it. But, as we... Read More


How to Attack RP in SV+HLD Leagues

No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can. Many fantasy... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More


Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that... Read More


Faster and Furious: Pitchers with Rising Velocity/Performance

Welcome fantasy baseball players! I’m sure that you, like me, are anxiously counting down the days until your drafts and Opening Day. While the fantasy season may not start for several weeks, there are plenty of things we can do to start preparing for a successful season. One of those things is to take a good... Read More


James Karinchak Is A Relief Pitcher To Know in 2020

One of the lesser-known players that intrigues me for the 2020 MLB season is Indians relief pitcher James Karinchak. The former Bryant Bulldog was drafted by Cleveland in the ninth round in the 2017 draft and went on to have one of the most outrageous statistical seasons in minor league baseball history. As someone who... Read More