X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Rookie Roulette - Which First-Year QB Should Go #1 in Dynasty Drafts?

Football fans know which quarterback was taken first in this year’s NFL Draft, but now fantasy football owners want to know which QB should go first in dynasty drafts.

The 2017 rookie quarterback crop is not loaded with any sure starters for this season, but there are plenty of potential passers for future seasons. Many of the quarterbacks are run-pass dual threats who can rack up yards through the air and on the ground and were able to pile up the points during their storied college careers. There is no doubt a couple of them, while they might not help fantasy squads much in 2017, could be perennial fantasy keepers over the next decade.

So which rookie quarterback should come off the board first in dynasty drafts?  Here is my take on the four top candidates and who should be picked first:

Editor's Note: Explore RotoBaller’s Dynasty Fantasy Football hub for year-round dynasty rankings, trade tips, rookie analysis, and long-term player outlooks. Dominate your league with our sleepers, stash targets, and dynasty draft advice. Click here for Dynasty rankings and strategy.

 

Top Rookie Quarterbacks for Dynasty

Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears

Chicago shocked everybody when they traded up to snag Trubisky with the second overall pick, but it was not shocking because Trubisky was such a stretch. It was because the Bears had just plunked down $45 million on Mike Glennon earlier in the offseason. Trubisky was ranked as the top quarterback coming out of college on most draft boards and has been pegged as a future franchise quarterback by some.

Trubisky has an accurate, above-average arm and can be the best pure passer of the rookie bunch because he is solid in the pocket. All he needs is smart coaching, Chicago to FINALLY acquire some decent receivers he can throw to, and for Glennon to politely get out of his way (or be shoved out of the way). He also needs an offense where there are plenty of designed roll-outs that maximize his skills. 2017 will probably not be the year for the second and third of those things to transpire, but hopefully in 2018 and beyond he will be Chicago’s centerpiece and become a fantasy centerpiece.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

It is obvious that the Chiefs need a gamebreaker and not a game manager running their offense. Alex Smith is limited in what he can do because of his lack of arm strength and his penchant for opting for conservative checkdowns over riskier passes 20-plus yards downfield. The future of Kansas City’s offense is definitely brighter with the multi-talented Mahomes at the helm, although little should be expected from him in redraft leagues this upcoming season.

Mahomes is as much of a project as a home renovation you see on HGTV. He is a raw talent who is used to throwing out of a shotgun in a spread offense and now has to be taught the ways of a more conventional NFL offense. This will likely take some time. Mahomes will also have to learn to cut down on the turnovers (29 INT in 32 college games) and prove that quarterbacks from college spread offenses can succeed in the NFL. K.C. head coach Andy Reid always milks the most out of his quarterbacks, and Mahomes might be the most talented one he has had since Reid and Donovan McNabb had so much success together in Philadelphia.

 

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

Watson was drafted after Trubisky and Mahomes, but the difference in talent between him and those two is negligible. Watson might not have been as highly-rated as Trubisky and Mahomes entering the draft, but he had a much better resume than that pair. He put an emphatic period on his college career by defeating Alabama in the BCS Championship game and torching the Tide’s top-ranked scoring defense for 420 passing yards and four total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing). If the kid can play that well on that stage against that defense, he is certainly ready for the pros.

The only thing standing between Watson starting and throwing 15 passes per game at fantasy superhero DeAndre Hopkins is Tom Savage, an injury-prone backup who has not thrown or ran for a touchdown in the five NFL games he has seen action in. This doesn't sound like much competition. Watson might win the starting job straight out of training camp, and at worst should get a crack at running the offense at some point during the season.

 

DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns

Kizer was not taken until the second round, but do not underestimate his skills. The Notre Dame product is a double threat as he has an NFL arm and body yet can get the ball over the goal line via his legs a la Cam Newton when near the end zone. But his aforementioned body and right arm is what impressed scouts and should titillate fantasy owners. Kizer is built like a brick igloo, and no rookie quarterback has the arm strength, the velocity on his throws and the ability to make all the passes on the field like Kizer can. To top it off, Kizer came out of a pro-style offense, so he is a little ahead of some other rooks when it comes to learning the NFL game.

While Cleveland might be shorter on talent than the performers on The Gong Show, they do have players at the skilled positions that can help Kizer, with a couple being young enough that they can grow and improve right along with Kizer. First-round pick David Njoku is a playmaking tight end with wide receiver speed. Veteran Kenny Britt is coming off his first 1,000-yard year, while Corey Coleman is looking to bust out in his sophomore season after injuries slowed down his promising rookie campaign. The two-back attack of Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr. will also take pressure off Kizer with their running and receiving ability out of the backfield. All Kizer has to do is beat out the undertalented Cody Kessler and the overpaid Brock Osweiler and the keys to Cleveland’s offense could be his for the foreseeable future. The biggest problem for Kizer is the organization he is a part of now.

 

Verdict

So which of the foursome is the rookie QB you should go after first in your dynasty drafts? I cross Kizer off the list because of Cleveland’s well-documented history of horrendous quarterbacks (Tim Couch, Brandon Weeden, Brady Quinn, Charlie Frye, the list goes on…) over the past 17 years. Kizer has a lot to overcome to become a decent quarterback in Cleveland.

Mahomes might have the best all-around skills of the rookie quartet, but he also probably has the biggest learning curve. He will likely need the most practice time to get transformed into an NFL quarterback due to the offense he primarily played in during college. Mahomes could end up being the best of the bunch, but it might not happen until 2020, and fantasy owners normally do not have that kind of patience.

Trubisky is the highest-regarded rookie QB coming into the season, but he has more doubters than President Trump's Twitter followers. Trubisky could become a superstar, or he could become the next Heath Shuler or Akili Smith. If Mike Glennon gets off to a good start and the Bears offense is decent, Trubisky might ride pine a lot over the next couple years.

That brings us to Watson, who has the clearest sight line to a starting spot. His smallish stature and reckless running style might lead to injury, yet the way he has proven he can accumulate yards and score in bunches under the brightest spotlights against the toughest defenses has to make him attractive to fantasy owners. He can be Houston’s starting quarterback for the next several seasons and is poised to put up 3,500 passing yards, 500 rushing yards and 25-35 touchdowns per season as long as he stays healthy. I would allow others in my dynasty leagues to take Trubisky and Mahomes off the board first and then sneak in for Watson and enjoy his fruitful career.

 

More 2017 Dynasty League Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
NFL

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Toronto Raptors

Sandro Mamukelashvili Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Riley Greene

Homers Twice, Drives in Six on Wednesday
Max Muncy

Exits With Apparent Knee Injury
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF