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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Friday, July 21st, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Mookie Betts OVER Ha-Seong Kim
Betts crushes lefties (1.120 OPS, .439 ISO, .450 wOBA), and Heaney is an erratic pitcher with a penchant for allowing the long ball. On the other hand, Kim is in good form but is facing a solid starting pitcher in prospect Reese Olson. I'm backing the better hitter in the better matchup here.
Mike Tauchman OVER Alan Trejo
There's not much to analyze here. Trejo averages 4.27 FPTS per game, while Tauchman averages 7.51 FPTS per game. Tauchman will lead off for the Cubs in a softer matchup against Jack Flaherty, while Trejo is expected to hit in the nine-hole against a much better pitcher in Braxton Garrett. Again, back the better hitter in the better matchup.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Freddy Peralta (UNDER), Zach Eflin (UNDER), Joe Ryan (OVER)
Peralta has turned in three straight quality performances, but I'm not ready to back the over on his high number against the best offense in the league. The Braves lead the MLB (by a wide margin) in OPS (.906), ISO (.260), and wOBA (.384) vs. right-handed pitching, and their 19.1% strikeout rate ranks as the third-lowest in the split. Peralta's high 27.1% strikeout rate helps him achieve high fantasy scores, but I don't see him succeeding in this matchup tonight.
Eflin isn't the Cy Young-level pitcher he masqueraded as in the season's opening months, and he's starting to regress as the season continues. He holds a 5.40 ERA through three starts in July, punctuated by a brutal -7.45 FPTS outing against the lowly Royals in his latest start. The Orioles rank as a top-12 hitting team against right-handed pitchers this season, and while they hold a low 3.9-run implied total tonight, I don't see Eflin hitting the over on his fantasy score, considering his current form.
Ryan has had some tough outings recently, but his profile is still spectacular, and we have to like the over for him against the light-hitting White Sox tonight. Ryan holds a 3.77 ERA (2.98 xERA), an elite 4.6% walk rate, and a 28.9% strikeout rate that ranks well above average. The White Sox strike out at the sixth-highest rate (24.5%) in the league against right-handed pitching, and they rank in the bottom seven in OPS (.685) and wOBA (.297) in the split.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (UNDER), Juan Soto (UNDER), Andres Gimenez (UNDER)
Acuna is having an outstanding year, but this number is way too high for the matchup he's faced with tonight. While I'm backing the under on him tonight, Peralta isn't a pitcher we want to target bats against, as he generates a lot of swings and misses and does a decent job of limiting hard hits. It's also worth noting that Acuna Jr. has finished under the score he needs tonight in three of his last four games.
With this pick, we're going with the under on another one of MLB's brightest young stars again. Soto has failed to exceed 10 FPTS in five of his last six starts, and while the Tigers are generally a team we like to target hitters against, that might not be the case tonight. Reese Olson, the #11 prospect for Detroit, has compiled a solid 3.96 ERA (4.02 xERA) through nine appearances (six starts) this season. As a starter, he holds a 4.00 FIP and 3.07 xFIP.
I'm smashing the under on Gimenez tonight. He has a subpar .710 OPS for the season, hasn't displayed much power with just eight homers, and ranks in the bottom one and two percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, respectively. Ranger Suarez isn't blowing anyone's socks off, but he has stellar stats against left-handed hitters (3.07 FIP, 2.71 xFIP, .188 AVG, one home run allowed).
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