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JB's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Tuesday, April 11th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to the first installment of RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two of the fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL; Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, and then you place a bet of your choosing to back it. If another player chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points you win 1.8x your bet. FantasyBook is more traditional than what you may be used to from other fantasy sites, offering you Fantasy Point lines for pitchers and hitters. Simply choose whether you think they will score Over or Under that set line and choose your bet. Here you can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
Soon enough, RIVAL will also offer season-long contests, really changing the game in terms of the pathways we can take as sports bettors. With promo code BALLER, you get a risk-free deposit of up to $50, and also a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($199 value). RIVAL Fantasy offers some of the best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games in the industry. There are no large-field tournaments filled with sharks where you have to get lucky just to place. At RIVAL Fantasy, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the projections.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Matt Olson (1B, ATL) vs Jose Ramirez (3B, CLE)
This almost feels unfair. Olson and the Braves face off against Luis Cessa, while J-Ram and the Guardians draw the Gerrit Cole straw. While Olson hasn't left the yard since the homestand started on April 6th, he still boasts a 240 wRC+ and three HR against RHP this season while Cessa is sporting a sparkling 9.00 xERA and 8.3 K% after his only start of the year. JoRam has some decent BvP against Cole but you just don't place money against the Cole train when he's looking like he has thus far in 2023.
Ian Happ (OF, CHC) vs Andres Gimenez (2B, CLE)
So I'm not saying take any bet against a Cleveland hitter, but when we get offered good hitters in great matchups against hitters facing Gerrit Cole... we smash them. Ian Happ is at home with the Wrigley wind blowing out to CF against Chris Flexen. Happ is rockin' a 226 wRC+ against RHP and a mind-blowing 25.0 BB% overall. Through two appearances, one start, Flexen owns a 0.0 K-BB%.
Gerrit Cole (SP, NYY) vs Lance Lynn (SP, CWS)
I know Minnesota's offense is hurting right now without Polanco and Gallo and Correa being banged up. But this one is self-explanatory. I'm sure Lance Lynn will come around to his norm eventually in 2023 but right now he's going through it. Through two starts he owns a 9.00 ERA and a .648 xSLG after allowing four HR in 10 innings. He's squaring off with a red-hot Pablo Lopez and will be without Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez on offense - and the defense looked AWFUL yesterday with the likes of Hanser Alberto, Gavin Sheets, and Elvis Andrus in the infield.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Jacob deGrom (SP, TEX), Alek Manoah (SP, TOR), Pablo Lopez (SP, MIN) OVER
So as you can see, those are some LOW FP totals for pitchers, right? Well, that's because of RIVAL's unique scoring format. Strikeouts mean nothing here, other than the fact that they are outs aiding the IP total. A Win is 4 points, IP is 1 point, and ER is -1 point.
So IP-ER is the baseline. Then determining the possibility of securing the W for the bonus 4 points which will almost always catapult and decent pitching line to be over ~6 points.
All three of these pitchers are in fantastic spots today, not only for good IP-ER baselines but also to get the win bonus. deGOAT is facing a Royals squad that owns a 47 wRC+ and 24.4 K% against RHP this season and has Jordan Lyles taking the bump for them. Alek Manoah hasn't looked completely polished to the tune of his 2022 self but faces a Tigers lineup that owns a 61 wRC+ and 23.5 K% against RHP and has probably the best all-around offense supporting him against Matt Manning. Pablo Lopez's matchup doesn't look the greatest but as I discussed previously - no TA7 or Eloy. It also doesn't hurt that Pablo is boasting a 36.4 K% and .154 xBA.
Matt Olson (1B, ATL), Adolis Garcia (OF, TEX), Mookie Betts (OF, LAD) OVER
Hitting on RIVAL is much more standard. 1 point for single, 4 points for a home run, 1 point for a run and RBI, etc. Still not negative for striking out - RIVAL cares not about strikeouts!
Matt Olson is a must as previously stated at home versus Luis Cessa. Adolis Garcia is a little riskier but Jordan Lyles with the Globe Life roof open is quite tasty. Lyles has reverse splits, and what do ya know so does Garcia. It's very limited data still for this season but Garcia has mashed the few sweepers he has seen in 2023 and hit sinkers very well last season - both of which are Lyles's top two offerings to RHB.
Lastly, we play the ol' BvP card with Mookie Betts versus southpaw Alex Wood. In 14 PA against Wood for his career, Mookie is hitting an absurd .643 with three taters. 20 MPH winds out in the bay tonight, it could get rowdy if Wood is giving up the loud contact he did in his first start (116.5 MPH to Jake Burger!)
Play the MLB FantasyBook Over/Under and Challenges Contests Now on RIVAL Fantasy
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