👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Reviewing Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions For 2016

During the offseason, I joined a bunch of my fellow Rotoballer writers in boldly predicting what might occur in the upcoming season. I foolishly ended that piece's intro with ,"Am I a Champ or a Chump?" despite the fact that no one had any idea how I did yet. The season is over, so now I can ask if I'm a Champ or a Chump. Let's find out!

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Grading the Predictions

1. Yasiel Puig Fails To Record 400 PAs

Puig was generally taken as a midrounder with upside in 2016 drafts, and I couldn't figure out why. I saw a player with no discernible talents and a Dodgers team loaded with OF depth, and speculated that the Dodgers would limit him to a fourth outfielder's role by the end of the year. The Dodgers went even further, demoting Puig to the minors after failing to trade him in July. He ended up recording 368 PAs, over which he disappointed owners with a .263/.323/.416 triple slash line with 11 bombs and five steals. Puig does not have the profile to sustain the elevated BABIP that carried him at first, and offers little power or speed to satisfy fantasy owners. Hopefully picking against him next year will no longer be bold. Grade: A

2. Steven Wright Will Matter In All Fantasy Formats

What exactly it means to "matter" is admittedly vague, but my analysis mentioned "double digit victories" and "league average ratios" that would make him a must own in deep formats while proving stream worthy in even shallow leagues. I also may have mentioned RA Dickey's Cy Young season, a prediction that looked perfectly reasonable when he had a 2.68 ERA in the first half. A shoulder injury slowed him after that, but his final line (13-6, 3.33 ERA) exceeded the predictions quoted above. To the delight of knuckleball fans everywhere, Wright has clearly established himself as an MLB-caliber starter. I'm 2 for 2! Grade: A+

3. Jose Peraza Records 500 PAs And Steals 40 Bases

Peraza registered only 256 PAs and 21 steals, so I missed the mark on this one. I thought the Reds would find a way to rid themselves of Brandon Phillips or let Peraza play in the OF, but Adam Duvall's emergence and Phillips's stubborn refusal to leave Cincinnati doomed Peraza to being a part time player. Still, his .324/.352/.411 line does nothing to dissuade me from liking Peraza next year, when 40 steals may not be bold enough. He was very effective when on the field, so I'll allow myself some credit here. Grade: C

4. Kevin Plawecki Will Record More PAs as a C Than Travis d'Arnaud

Plawecki recorded 148 PAs to his teammate's 250 as a catcher, so this prediction is wrong on the surface. It becomes even more wrong when you consider the analysis that went into it. I thought that TDA's bat was too valuable to sit, so the Mets would use him at first vs. LHP and to spell David Wright at third base. This would give him a Buster Posey amount of PAs while hiding his substandard glove at C. Unfortunately, last year's stellar line of .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers declined to just .247/.307/.323 with four this year in a similar number of PAs. Both his FB% (41.7% to 30.8%) and HR/FB (15% to 6.5%) declined to support TDA's lackluster totals. Meanwhile, Plawecki did absolutely nothing with the playing time opened up by more TDA health issues, as his .197/.298/.265 with a single dinger failed to help even NL-Only owners with two C slots to fill. Grade: F

5. Jarrod Dyson Will Be A Top 15 Outfielder

Sadly, Dyson was once again unable to escape the platoon role he's been shoehorned into. He compiled only 337 PAs, making it impossible to record Top 15 OF value. I didn't completely miss the boat, however, as 337 PAs is a new career best for playing time. His 30 SBs were also great for fantasy owners, and Dyson combined them with a respectable batting average for the first time in his career (.278). Almost anyone would say that the Royals hurt themselves by not exploring alternative options to Alcides Escobar in the leadoff slot, a decision that may have cost Dyson some counting stats. Like Peraza before him, this one gives me partial credit. Grade: C

6. Drew Storen Will Be A Top 10 Fantasy Closer

Oh dear God! Behold my worst bold prediction by far! Storen saw his strikeout rate collapse relative to 2015 (29.4% to 21.1%) while developing a bad case of gopheritis (14% HR/FB). The resulting 5.23 ERA was nowhere near enough to unseat young Roberto Ozuna from the closer's role in Toronto, and he finished with only three saves. An eventual trade to Seattle didn't help either, as his numbers were too poor to merit a second look when the Mariners started scrambling for a closer. Maybe he'll bounce back next year, but this prediction was an unmitigated disaster. Grade: F-

7. Atlanta Braves Pitchers Will Record More Saves Than Chicago Cubs Pitchers

The Braves were projected to be so terrible that many owners didn't bother to keep tabs on their unsettled ninth inning. The Cubs were projected to be the best team in baseball. I argued that even bad teams produce a useful number of save opportunities, while the Cubs might win by too much to produce a lot of saves. My analysis was right on the money, as Chicago's 38 saves paled in comparison to Atlanta's 39! Yes, I won this by one save. Lest you think that the small margin disproves my original analysis, I'll point out that I could have substituted the Phillies (43 saves), A's (42), Rays (also 42), or Brewers (46) as the bad team instead of the Braves and still won this prediction. Grade: A-

8. The Miami Marlins Will Win The NL East

Miami finished 79-82, 15.5 GB of division winning Washington. My sleeper team, intended to find overlooked Ws, busted big time. In my defense, Giancarlo Stanton must have set a Guinness world record for freak injuries by now, and no one saw an 80 game suspension for PEDs coming for Dee Gordon. I also expected one of the starters to step up as a #2 behind Jose Fernandez, but that did not happen either. The Fernandez tragedy easily transcends all of these issues in a way that goes well beyond baseball, and no one could blame the Marlins if it takes them multiple years to truly get over the shock. He will be sorely missed by all baseball fans. Grade: F

9. Stephen Strasburg Will Win NL Cy Young

Strasburg's 15-4 record will appeal to certain voters, and his excellent 30.6% K% suggests that it was not a fluke. However, an elbow injury limited him to just 147.2 IP this year, making his case for the award an inferior version of Clayton Kershaw's. His 3.60 ERA is also a tad high, even if a strong 2.92 FIP is hiding beneath it. Awards haven't been announced yet, but this is clearly a loss. His name isn't even brought up in the Cy debate. Washington's ace was very good when healthy, so I'll allow myself partial credit again. Grade: D+

10. Yangervis Solarte Will Matter In All Formats

I went with this vague prediction again, this time for a hitter. I speculated that Solarte could hit .290 with 20+ homers in 2016, as his BABIP was limited by a subpar LD% while his power was clearly trending upward. His .286/.341/.467 line with 15 HR in 443 PAs fell just short, but my analysis was mostly right. His LD% improved to a league average 21.9%, boosting his BABIP to .306 from .279 the year before. His prorated stats would also include 20 bombs over a full season. The Padres generally hit him cleanup, allowing Solarte to compile 71 RBI as well. With eligibility at first, second, and third heading into the season, he was probably an important injury replacement for somebody in every league, and he was clearly worth owning in deeper formats. I think I'm right here, but the vagueness of the original prediction hurts my grade a little. Grade: B

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Isaiah Likely

Remains Well-Positioned for Mid-Career Breakout Following NFL Draft
Jauan Jennings

' Dynasty Value Fading Following NFL Draft?
Luther Burden III

Poised for Breakout Season in Chicago?
CFB

Brendan Sorsby Facing Potential Permanent Loss of Eligibility
MarShawn Lloyd

Is MarShawn Lloyd a Dynasty Buy-Low Candidate Following NFL Draft?
Emanuel Wilson

Dynasty Value Fading After Seahawks' Draft Addition
Jalen Nailor

Remains Poised for Prominent Role in Las Vegas Following NFL Draft
Manny Machado

Departs Early With Undisclosed Injury on Monday
Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Fire Manager Rob Thomson
Elmer Rodríguez

Yankees to Promote Top Pitching Prospect Elmer Rodriguez
Pete Fairbanks

Pulled on Monday With "Unusual Sensation" in his Thumb
Jaylin Noel

Could Find Meaningful Role Out of Slot
Dylan Sampson

in a Good Spot After NFL Draft
Kirk Cousins

a Low-Cost Dynasty Add That Could Pay Dividends
Mikhail Sergachev

Has Three Assists in Overtime Loss
George Holani

One of the Draft's Biggest Losers
Brett Howden

Records Three Points in Vital Win
Kendre Miller

Not Guaranteed a Roster Spot with Saints
Rasmus Ristolainen

Registers Two Assists in Game 5 Loss
Arturs Silovs

Helps Penguins Survive for Second Time
Sidney Crosby

Delivers Two Assists in Elimination-Game Win
NAS

Predators Pick Up KHL Standout Vitali Pinchuk
Paolo Banchero

Efficiency Woes Continue in Game 4
Julius Randle

Leads Timberwolves With 27 Points Monday
Rickie Fowler

Rides History into the Blue Monster at Doral
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Records Big Triple-Double as Nuggets Stay Alive
Keegan Bradley

on Good Run Heading into Cadillac Championship
Chet Holmgren

Posts Impressive Double-Double in Game 4 Win
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches Efficient 31 Points in Closeout Game
Franz Wagner

Scheduled for MRI on Tuesday
Giancarlo Stanton

Heading to Injured List With Calf Strain
New England Patriots

Mike Vrabel Returns to the Patriots on Monday
Tyree Wilson

Heading into Contract Year With New Team
Calijah Kancey

Buccaneers Pick Up Fifth-Year Option on Calijah Kancey
Jalen Carter

Eagles Exercise Fifth-Year Option on Jalen Carter
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Pick Up Nolan Smith's Fifth-Year Option
Keon Coleman

Bills Aren't Giving Up on Keon Coleman
Aaron Rodgers

Former Steelers Coach Thinks Aaron Rodgers Will Return to Pittsburgh
Chris Gotterup

Looks to Continue Big-Game Hunting at Cadillac Championship
George Pickens

hasn't Signed his Franchise Tag With Dallas
Jason Day

Looks to Bring Experience Back to the Blue Monster
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Remains Highly Rated by Heat
Aaron Gordon

Won't Play Monday Night
Tyler Herro

to Undergo "Preemptive Procedure" on Foot
Cameron Young

Returns to Action For Cadillac Championship
Travis Bazzana

Guardians Calling Up Former First Overall Pick Travis Bazzana
Bam Adebayo

Remains Untouchable for Heat
Sam Burns

Looks to Have Big Impact at PGA Tour's Return to Doral
Anthony Edwards

Officially Listed as Week-to-Week
Jordan Goodwin

Still Out Monday
Cooper Flagg

Wins Rookie of the Year Award
Kevin Huerter

is Available to Play in Game 4
Joel Embiid

is Probable for Game 5
Austin Reaves

Could Return for Game 5
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Officially Won't Play During First-Round Series
Jonathan Isaac

to Remain Out for Game 4
Will Smith

Back in Action in Series Opener Against Marlins
Josh Naylor

Back in Starting Lineup on Monday
Jason Zucker

Probable for Game 5 Against Bruins
Josh Norris

Could Return to Action Tuesday
Nikita Zadorov

Questionable for Game 5
Viktor Arvidsson

Considered Questionable for Tuesday
Nils Lundkvist

Won't Play Tuesday
Yakov Trenin

Could Be an Option Tuesday
Mats Zuccarello

Questionable for Game 5
Carson Hocevar

Scores his First Career NASCAR Cup Series Victory at Talladega
Chris Buescher

Misses out on Winning at Talladega by Finishing Second
Alex Bowman

Earns First Top-Five Finish at Talladega Since Returning From Injury
Chase Elliott

Scores A Fourth-Place Finish at Talladega
Zane Smith

Nabs First Top-Five Finish of the 2026 Season at Talladega
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Does Marvin Harrison Jr. Still Carry High-End Dynasty Upside?
Marquise Brown

Sliding Down Eagles' Depth Chart Following 2026 Draft
CFB

Texas Tech Quarterback Brendan Sorsby Enters Rehab
Youssef Zalal

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Aljamain Sterling

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Norma Dumont

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 116
Joselyne Edwards

Scores Upset Win
Alexander Hernandez

Gets Dominated
Alexander Hernandez

Rafa Garcia Dominates Alexander Hernandez
Adrian Luna Martinetti

Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
Davey Grant

Gets Back In The Win Column
Manny Machado

Clubs Two Homers, Starting to Turn Things Around?
Brandon Hagel

Pops Up With Two Goals in Sunday's Win
Nathan MacKinnon

Records Three Points in Series-Clincher
Bowen Byram

Extends Goal Streak to Three Games
John Carlson

Delivers Two Assists in Game 4 Victory
Connor McDavid

Bags Pair of Power-Play Assists in 100th Playoff Game
Jason Zucker

Makes Early Exit in Blowout Win
De'Aaron Fox

Notches Game-High 28 Points Sunday
Joel Embiid

Returns With Double-Double
Jayson Tatum

Logs 30-Point Double-Double in Sunday's Win
Emil Andrae

Expected to Rejoin Flyers Lineup Monday
Matvei Michkov

Set to Be Scratched for Game 5
Logan O'Hoppe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List Due to Left-Wrist Fracture
Denny Hamlin

Is Denny Hamlin Worth Rostering for Talladega?
NASCAR

Is Bubba Wallace Playable in Talladega DFS Lineups?
Josh Naylor

Absent on Sunday With Quad Tightness
Ryan Helsley

Returns From Bereavement List on Sunday
Steven Kwan

Back in Sunday's Lineup
Brent Rooker

Activated and Starting on Sunday Against Rangers
Roman Anthony

Returns as DH on Sunday
Tyler Reddick

Stay Away From Tyler Reddick at Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Shake Off The Bad Luck at Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Could Contend For Another Talladega Win
Kyle Busch

an Easy DFS Pick at Talladega
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. a High-Risk, High-Reward Pick at Talladega
Todd Gilliland

a Sleeper to Watch at Talladega
Brad Keselowski

Is Brad Keselowski Worth Rostering for Talladega Lineups?
Chase Briscoe

Could Chase Briscoe be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Talladega Lineups?
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Managers Trust Christopher Bell at Talladega?
Ty Gibbs

Is A DFS Risk for Talladega Lineups
Boston Red Sox

Red Sox Fire Manager Alex Cora and Other Coaches
Steven Kwan

Scratched With Neck Stiffness
Trey Yesavage

Returning From Injured List on Tuesday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Heading to the Injured List With Oblique Strain
MLB

Saturday's Mets-Rockies Game Postponed Due to Weather
Giancarlo Stanton

Exits With Leg Tightness on Friday
Youssef Zalal

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Main Event
Aljamain Sterling

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 116
Joselyne Edwards

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Co-Main Event
Norma Dumont

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Alexander Hernandez

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 116
Rafa Garcia

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Adrian Luna Martinetti

Set For His UFC Debut
Davey Grant

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF