👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Reviewing Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions For 2016

During the offseason, I joined a bunch of my fellow Rotoballer writers in boldly predicting what might occur in the upcoming season. I foolishly ended that piece's intro with ,"Am I a Champ or a Chump?" despite the fact that no one had any idea how I did yet. The season is over, so now I can ask if I'm a Champ or a Chump. Let's find out!

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Grading the Predictions

1. Yasiel Puig Fails To Record 400 PAs

Puig was generally taken as a midrounder with upside in 2016 drafts, and I couldn't figure out why. I saw a player with no discernible talents and a Dodgers team loaded with OF depth, and speculated that the Dodgers would limit him to a fourth outfielder's role by the end of the year. The Dodgers went even further, demoting Puig to the minors after failing to trade him in July. He ended up recording 368 PAs, over which he disappointed owners with a .263/.323/.416 triple slash line with 11 bombs and five steals. Puig does not have the profile to sustain the elevated BABIP that carried him at first, and offers little power or speed to satisfy fantasy owners. Hopefully picking against him next year will no longer be bold. Grade: A

2. Steven Wright Will Matter In All Fantasy Formats

What exactly it means to "matter" is admittedly vague, but my analysis mentioned "double digit victories" and "league average ratios" that would make him a must own in deep formats while proving stream worthy in even shallow leagues. I also may have mentioned RA Dickey's Cy Young season, a prediction that looked perfectly reasonable when he had a 2.68 ERA in the first half. A shoulder injury slowed him after that, but his final line (13-6, 3.33 ERA) exceeded the predictions quoted above. To the delight of knuckleball fans everywhere, Wright has clearly established himself as an MLB-caliber starter. I'm 2 for 2! Grade: A+

3. Jose Peraza Records 500 PAs And Steals 40 Bases

Peraza registered only 256 PAs and 21 steals, so I missed the mark on this one. I thought the Reds would find a way to rid themselves of Brandon Phillips or let Peraza play in the OF, but Adam Duvall's emergence and Phillips's stubborn refusal to leave Cincinnati doomed Peraza to being a part time player. Still, his .324/.352/.411 line does nothing to dissuade me from liking Peraza next year, when 40 steals may not be bold enough. He was very effective when on the field, so I'll allow myself some credit here. Grade: C

4. Kevin Plawecki Will Record More PAs as a C Than Travis d'Arnaud

Plawecki recorded 148 PAs to his teammate's 250 as a catcher, so this prediction is wrong on the surface. It becomes even more wrong when you consider the analysis that went into it. I thought that TDA's bat was too valuable to sit, so the Mets would use him at first vs. LHP and to spell David Wright at third base. This would give him a Buster Posey amount of PAs while hiding his substandard glove at C. Unfortunately, last year's stellar line of .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers declined to just .247/.307/.323 with four this year in a similar number of PAs. Both his FB% (41.7% to 30.8%) and HR/FB (15% to 6.5%) declined to support TDA's lackluster totals. Meanwhile, Plawecki did absolutely nothing with the playing time opened up by more TDA health issues, as his .197/.298/.265 with a single dinger failed to help even NL-Only owners with two C slots to fill. Grade: F

5. Jarrod Dyson Will Be A Top 15 Outfielder

Sadly, Dyson was once again unable to escape the platoon role he's been shoehorned into. He compiled only 337 PAs, making it impossible to record Top 15 OF value. I didn't completely miss the boat, however, as 337 PAs is a new career best for playing time. His 30 SBs were also great for fantasy owners, and Dyson combined them with a respectable batting average for the first time in his career (.278). Almost anyone would say that the Royals hurt themselves by not exploring alternative options to Alcides Escobar in the leadoff slot, a decision that may have cost Dyson some counting stats. Like Peraza before him, this one gives me partial credit. Grade: C

6. Drew Storen Will Be A Top 10 Fantasy Closer

Oh dear God! Behold my worst bold prediction by far! Storen saw his strikeout rate collapse relative to 2015 (29.4% to 21.1%) while developing a bad case of gopheritis (14% HR/FB). The resulting 5.23 ERA was nowhere near enough to unseat young Roberto Ozuna from the closer's role in Toronto, and he finished with only three saves. An eventual trade to Seattle didn't help either, as his numbers were too poor to merit a second look when the Mariners started scrambling for a closer. Maybe he'll bounce back next year, but this prediction was an unmitigated disaster. Grade: F-

7. Atlanta Braves Pitchers Will Record More Saves Than Chicago Cubs Pitchers

The Braves were projected to be so terrible that many owners didn't bother to keep tabs on their unsettled ninth inning. The Cubs were projected to be the best team in baseball. I argued that even bad teams produce a useful number of save opportunities, while the Cubs might win by too much to produce a lot of saves. My analysis was right on the money, as Chicago's 38 saves paled in comparison to Atlanta's 39! Yes, I won this by one save. Lest you think that the small margin disproves my original analysis, I'll point out that I could have substituted the Phillies (43 saves), A's (42), Rays (also 42), or Brewers (46) as the bad team instead of the Braves and still won this prediction. Grade: A-

8. The Miami Marlins Will Win The NL East

Miami finished 79-82, 15.5 GB of division winning Washington. My sleeper team, intended to find overlooked Ws, busted big time. In my defense, Giancarlo Stanton must have set a Guinness world record for freak injuries by now, and no one saw an 80 game suspension for PEDs coming for Dee Gordon. I also expected one of the starters to step up as a #2 behind Jose Fernandez, but that did not happen either. The Fernandez tragedy easily transcends all of these issues in a way that goes well beyond baseball, and no one could blame the Marlins if it takes them multiple years to truly get over the shock. He will be sorely missed by all baseball fans. Grade: F

9. Stephen Strasburg Will Win NL Cy Young

Strasburg's 15-4 record will appeal to certain voters, and his excellent 30.6% K% suggests that it was not a fluke. However, an elbow injury limited him to just 147.2 IP this year, making his case for the award an inferior version of Clayton Kershaw's. His 3.60 ERA is also a tad high, even if a strong 2.92 FIP is hiding beneath it. Awards haven't been announced yet, but this is clearly a loss. His name isn't even brought up in the Cy debate. Washington's ace was very good when healthy, so I'll allow myself partial credit again. Grade: D+

10. Yangervis Solarte Will Matter In All Formats

I went with this vague prediction again, this time for a hitter. I speculated that Solarte could hit .290 with 20+ homers in 2016, as his BABIP was limited by a subpar LD% while his power was clearly trending upward. His .286/.341/.467 line with 15 HR in 443 PAs fell just short, but my analysis was mostly right. His LD% improved to a league average 21.9%, boosting his BABIP to .306 from .279 the year before. His prorated stats would also include 20 bombs over a full season. The Padres generally hit him cleanup, allowing Solarte to compile 71 RBI as well. With eligibility at first, second, and third heading into the season, he was probably an important injury replacement for somebody in every league, and he was clearly worth owning in deeper formats. I think I'm right here, but the vagueness of the original prediction hurts my grade a little. Grade: B

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Charle-Edouard D'Astous Could Be an Option Friday
Victor Hedman

Traveling With Team
Radko Gudas

Unavailable for Game 2
Los Angeles Rams

Rams Increasingly Likely to Draft a First-Round Wide Receiver?
Yakov Trenin

Considered a Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Shedeur Sanders

Gets First Reps in Team Workouts
Mats Zuccarello

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Wyatt Langford

Expected to Go on Injured List With Flexor Strain
NFL

Chris Bell is Ahead of Schedule in ACL Rehab
NFL

Caleb Banks on Pace for Football Activities in June
Maikel Garcia

Leaves Early on Wednesday With Elbow Soreness
Carson Beck

Could Carson Beck be a First-Round Pick in the NFL Draft?
Roman Anthony

Day-to-Day With Sore Back
Juan Soto

Officially Back in Mets Lineup on Wednesday
J.T. Realmuto

Phillies Place J.T. Realmuto on Injured List With Back Injury
Lucas Giolito

Signs With Padres, Worth a Waiver-Wire Pickup?
Ryan Helsley

Orioles Put Ryan Helsley on Bereavement List on Wednesday
George Pickens

to Play on Franchise Tag in 2026
Quinshon Judkins

Spotted at Voluntary Offseason Workouts
Isaiah Davis

Remains Without a Clear Pathway to Playing Time in New York
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Chiefs Looking to Acquire Kyle Pitts Sr. From the Falcons?
Kaleb Johnson

Does Kaleb Johnson Still Carry Dynasty Buy-Low Appeal?
DK Metcalf

Should Dynasty Managers Be Looking to Sell on DK Metcalf?
Trey McBride

Is Trey McBride Currently Undervalued in Dynasty Leagues?
Carolina Panthers

Kenyon Sadiq Linked to Panthers in Mock Drafts
Wan'Dale Robinson

Could Be Primed for Breakout Year with the Titans
Brock Purdy

Is Brock Purdy a Sneaky Buy-Low Candidate for Dynasty Managers?
Arizona Cardinals

Jeremiyah Love a "Logical Pick" if Cardinals Stay at No. 3 in NFL Draft
CFB

Beau Pribula Leading Virginia Quarterback Competition
Jalen McMillan

a Low-Cost Buy Who Can Provide Spike Weeks
Jack Eichel

Sets Up Two Goals Tuesday
Justin Jefferson

Buy Window is Closing Fast
Artemi Panarin

Records Another Power-Play Goal
Dylan Guenther

Enjoys Multi-Point Outing Tuesday Night
J.J. McCarthy

Is J.J. McCarthy Worth Buying Low?
Viktor Arvidsson

Strikes Twice in Game 2 Win
Drake Maye

Is it Still Possible to Acquire Drake Maye in Dynasty Leagues?
Lane Hutson

Nets First Career Postseason Goal
Brandon Hagel

Records Tampa Bay's First Postseason Gordie Howe Hat Trick
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up Heading into NFL Draft
Nikita Kucherov

Ends 16-Game Postseason Goal Drought
Scoot Henderson

Erupts for 31 Points in Series-Tying Victory
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Fills Stat Sheet in Losing Effort
Kevin Durant

Commits Nine Turnovers in Game 2 Loss
Marcus Smart

Catches Fire in Game 2
LeBron James

Leads Lakers to Victory With Game-High 28 Points
Jake LaRavia

Exits Early Tuesday
Harrison Barnes

Injures Left Wrist in Game 2
Marco Penge

Trending Down Entering Zurich Classic
Sahith Theegala

Eyes Another Strong Week at Zurich Classic
Brooks Koepka

Shane Lowry Teams Up with Brooks Koepka at Zurich Classic
Si Woo Kim

Adds Another Strong Finish at RBC Heritage
Elly De La Cruz

Early-Season Breakout Continues on Tuesday
Jaylen Brown

Leads All Scorers With 36 Points in Game 2
VJ Edgecombe

Has Historic Outing in Game 2 Win
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Wins Clutch Player of the Year Award
Austin Reaves

Begins Return-to-Play Protocol
Wyatt Langford

Pulled Early on Tuesday With Forearm Tightness
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Not Expected to Play in First-Round Series
Luke Clanton

Hoping to Find Form in New Orleans
Kevin Durant

Good to Go Tuesday
Jackson Holliday

Leaves Rehab Game With Hand Discomfort
Victor Wembanyama

Lands in Concussion Protocol, Won't Return Tuesday
Corbin Carroll

Returns to Arizona's Lineup Against White Sox
Scottie Scheffler

is Starting to Hit His Stride
Brooks Koepka

Looking for Progress in PGA Return With Partner at Zurich Classic
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Share Recent Form at Zurich Classic
Jonathan Isaac

Unlikely to Play in Game 2
Mark Williams

Could Sit Again in Game 2
Grayson Allen

Questionable for Game 2
Jordan Goodwin

Iffy for Game 2
Chicago Bulls

Billy Donovan Exiting as Bulls Head Coach
Ron Harper Jr.

Available for Game 2 Against 76ers
Zack Wheeler

to Make Season Debut on Saturday
Jonathan Toews

Undecided on NHL Future
Jonathan Huberdeau

Expects to Be Ready for Training Camp
DAL

Nathan Bastian Not Expected to Play Before Round 2
Roope Hintz

Doubtful for Game 4
Adam Henrique

Won't Play in Game 2 Against Ducks
Victor Hedman

Doubtful to Play in Round 1
Charle-Edouard D'Astous

Unavailable Tuesday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Back in Leadoff Spot on Tuesday After Injury Scare
CFB

Ashton Daniels Named Florida State's Starting Quarterback
Juan Soto

Expected to Return on Wednesday
Royce Lewis

Twins Reinstate Royce Lewis From Injured List on Tuesday
Adley Rutschman

Activated From Injured List on Tuesday
Dylan Cease

Continues Strong Start With 12-Strikeout Performance
Raisel Iglesias

Placed on 15-Day Injured List with Shoulder Inflammation
Jake Sanderson

Records Two Assists in Losing Effort
Brock Faber

Bags Two Goals in Monday's Defeat
CJ McCollum

Shines at MSG in Game 2
Max Muncy

With Another Two-Homer Game, Becoming Must-Add Off Waiver Wire
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Day-to-Day After Being Hit on the Hand on Monday
Mick Abel

Injury Described as "Not Too Serious"
Tyler Reddick

Earns His Fifth Win of the 2026 Season at Kansas
Kyle Larson

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Kansas
Chase Briscoe

Rallies for A New Career-Best Finish at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Leads the Most Laps at Kansas but Misses Out on Victory
Christopher Bell

Falls Out of Contention for Kansas Victory on Final Restart
Mike Malott

Scores Third-Round TKO Win
Gilbert Burns

Retires After UFC Winnipeg Loss
Charles Jourdain

Extends Winning Streak
Kyler Phillips

Drops Decision At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss In His UFC Debut
Jai Herbert

Scores First-Round TKO Win
Karine Silva

Gets Dominated at UFC Winnipeg
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Dominates Karine Silva
Kyle Larson

Should not be Underestimated for the Win at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Can Denny Hamlin Dominate at Kansas Again?
NASCAR

Christoper Bell Should Contend for First Win at Kansas
Tyler Reddick

Fastest in Practice and Qualifying for Kansas Race
Ryan Blaney

Could Score another Top-10 Finish at Kansas
Ty Gibbs

Poised to Continue Hot Streak at Kansas
Chris Buescher

Always Consistent, Has Speed Heading Into Kansas
William Byron

is A Solid DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Carson Hocevar

Poised for Career-Best Run at Kansas
Chase Briscoe

Is Chase Briscoe Worth Rostering for DFS at Kansas?
Chase Elliott

Is A Favorable DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano be Considered Playable In DFS This Week at Kansas?
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace is A Favorable Driver to Consider for Kansas Lineups
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain A Worthy DFS Option for Kansas?
Brad Keselowski

Could Brad Keselowski be A Sneaky DFS Option for Kansas?
Daniel Suarez

Should DFS Managers Roster Daniel Suarez at Kansas?
Mike Malott

A Favorite At UFC Winnipeg
Gilbert Burns

Set For UFC Winnipeg Main Event
Kyler Phillips

Set UFC Winnipeg Co-Main Event
Charles Jourdain

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Jai Herbert

An Underdog At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Set For His UFC Debut
Karine Silva

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Bounce Back
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF