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Reviewing Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions For 2016

During the offseason, I joined a bunch of my fellow Rotoballer writers in boldly predicting what might occur in the upcoming season. I foolishly ended that piece's intro with ,"Am I a Champ or a Chump?" despite the fact that no one had any idea how I did yet. The season is over, so now I can ask if I'm a Champ or a Chump. Let's find out!

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Grading the Predictions

1. Yasiel Puig Fails To Record 400 PAs

Puig was generally taken as a midrounder with upside in 2016 drafts, and I couldn't figure out why. I saw a player with no discernible talents and a Dodgers team loaded with OF depth, and speculated that the Dodgers would limit him to a fourth outfielder's role by the end of the year. The Dodgers went even further, demoting Puig to the minors after failing to trade him in July. He ended up recording 368 PAs, over which he disappointed owners with a .263/.323/.416 triple slash line with 11 bombs and five steals. Puig does not have the profile to sustain the elevated BABIP that carried him at first, and offers little power or speed to satisfy fantasy owners. Hopefully picking against him next year will no longer be bold. Grade: A

2. Steven Wright Will Matter In All Fantasy Formats

What exactly it means to "matter" is admittedly vague, but my analysis mentioned "double digit victories" and "league average ratios" that would make him a must own in deep formats while proving stream worthy in even shallow leagues. I also may have mentioned RA Dickey's Cy Young season, a prediction that looked perfectly reasonable when he had a 2.68 ERA in the first half. A shoulder injury slowed him after that, but his final line (13-6, 3.33 ERA) exceeded the predictions quoted above. To the delight of knuckleball fans everywhere, Wright has clearly established himself as an MLB-caliber starter. I'm 2 for 2! Grade: A+

3. Jose Peraza Records 500 PAs And Steals 40 Bases

Peraza registered only 256 PAs and 21 steals, so I missed the mark on this one. I thought the Reds would find a way to rid themselves of Brandon Phillips or let Peraza play in the OF, but Adam Duvall's emergence and Phillips's stubborn refusal to leave Cincinnati doomed Peraza to being a part time player. Still, his .324/.352/.411 line does nothing to dissuade me from liking Peraza next year, when 40 steals may not be bold enough. He was very effective when on the field, so I'll allow myself some credit here. Grade: C

4. Kevin Plawecki Will Record More PAs as a C Than Travis d'Arnaud

Plawecki recorded 148 PAs to his teammate's 250 as a catcher, so this prediction is wrong on the surface. It becomes even more wrong when you consider the analysis that went into it. I thought that TDA's bat was too valuable to sit, so the Mets would use him at first vs. LHP and to spell David Wright at third base. This would give him a Buster Posey amount of PAs while hiding his substandard glove at C. Unfortunately, last year's stellar line of .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers declined to just .247/.307/.323 with four this year in a similar number of PAs. Both his FB% (41.7% to 30.8%) and HR/FB (15% to 6.5%) declined to support TDA's lackluster totals. Meanwhile, Plawecki did absolutely nothing with the playing time opened up by more TDA health issues, as his .197/.298/.265 with a single dinger failed to help even NL-Only owners with two C slots to fill. Grade: F

5. Jarrod Dyson Will Be A Top 15 Outfielder

Sadly, Dyson was once again unable to escape the platoon role he's been shoehorned into. He compiled only 337 PAs, making it impossible to record Top 15 OF value. I didn't completely miss the boat, however, as 337 PAs is a new career best for playing time. His 30 SBs were also great for fantasy owners, and Dyson combined them with a respectable batting average for the first time in his career (.278). Almost anyone would say that the Royals hurt themselves by not exploring alternative options to Alcides Escobar in the leadoff slot, a decision that may have cost Dyson some counting stats. Like Peraza before him, this one gives me partial credit. Grade: C

6. Drew Storen Will Be A Top 10 Fantasy Closer

Oh dear God! Behold my worst bold prediction by far! Storen saw his strikeout rate collapse relative to 2015 (29.4% to 21.1%) while developing a bad case of gopheritis (14% HR/FB). The resulting 5.23 ERA was nowhere near enough to unseat young Roberto Ozuna from the closer's role in Toronto, and he finished with only three saves. An eventual trade to Seattle didn't help either, as his numbers were too poor to merit a second look when the Mariners started scrambling for a closer. Maybe he'll bounce back next year, but this prediction was an unmitigated disaster. Grade: F-

7. Atlanta Braves Pitchers Will Record More Saves Than Chicago Cubs Pitchers

The Braves were projected to be so terrible that many owners didn't bother to keep tabs on their unsettled ninth inning. The Cubs were projected to be the best team in baseball. I argued that even bad teams produce a useful number of save opportunities, while the Cubs might win by too much to produce a lot of saves. My analysis was right on the money, as Chicago's 38 saves paled in comparison to Atlanta's 39! Yes, I won this by one save. Lest you think that the small margin disproves my original analysis, I'll point out that I could have substituted the Phillies (43 saves), A's (42), Rays (also 42), or Brewers (46) as the bad team instead of the Braves and still won this prediction. Grade: A-

8. The Miami Marlins Will Win The NL East

Miami finished 79-82, 15.5 GB of division winning Washington. My sleeper team, intended to find overlooked Ws, busted big time. In my defense, Giancarlo Stanton must have set a Guinness world record for freak injuries by now, and no one saw an 80 game suspension for PEDs coming for Dee Gordon. I also expected one of the starters to step up as a #2 behind Jose Fernandez, but that did not happen either. The Fernandez tragedy easily transcends all of these issues in a way that goes well beyond baseball, and no one could blame the Marlins if it takes them multiple years to truly get over the shock. He will be sorely missed by all baseball fans. Grade: F

9. Stephen Strasburg Will Win NL Cy Young

Strasburg's 15-4 record will appeal to certain voters, and his excellent 30.6% K% suggests that it was not a fluke. However, an elbow injury limited him to just 147.2 IP this year, making his case for the award an inferior version of Clayton Kershaw's. His 3.60 ERA is also a tad high, even if a strong 2.92 FIP is hiding beneath it. Awards haven't been announced yet, but this is clearly a loss. His name isn't even brought up in the Cy debate. Washington's ace was very good when healthy, so I'll allow myself partial credit again. Grade: D+

10. Yangervis Solarte Will Matter In All Formats

I went with this vague prediction again, this time for a hitter. I speculated that Solarte could hit .290 with 20+ homers in 2016, as his BABIP was limited by a subpar LD% while his power was clearly trending upward. His .286/.341/.467 line with 15 HR in 443 PAs fell just short, but my analysis was mostly right. His LD% improved to a league average 21.9%, boosting his BABIP to .306 from .279 the year before. His prorated stats would also include 20 bombs over a full season. The Padres generally hit him cleanup, allowing Solarte to compile 71 RBI as well. With eligibility at first, second, and third heading into the season, he was probably an important injury replacement for somebody in every league, and he was clearly worth owning in deeper formats. I think I'm right here, but the vagueness of the original prediction hurts my grade a little. Grade: B

 




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kayshon Boutte

to Compete for Snaps in Three-Receiver Sets
Alvin Kamara

Attends OTAs on Wednesday
Andrei Iosivas

Is it Time for Dynasty Managers to Drop Andrei Iosivas?
Tyjae Spears

Is Tyjae Spears Droppable in Dynasty Formats?
Jaylen Wright

the Dynasty Handcuff Running Back to Own in Miami?
Colby Parkinson

Facing Likely Regression After Career Year in 2025
Omarion Hampton

Remains a High-End Dynasty RB1 Despite Injury History
Rickie Fowler

Looks To Continue Resurgent Season At Memorial
Ollie Gordon II

Is Ollie Gordon II Still Worthy of a Dynasty Roster Spot?
Justin Herbert

Overhauling his Footwork This Offseason
De'Von Achane

Doing Individual Drills at Minicamp
Ashton Jeanty

Raiders Emphasizing Ashton Jeanty's Progress as Their Lead Back
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Still on the Mend From 2025 Injuries
Brandon Aiyuk

Warrant Issued for Brandon Aiyuk's Arrest in California
Blake Corum

Remains an Elite Handcuff in Dynasty Leagues
Chris Godwin Jr.

Consistency the Key for Chris Godwin Jr. in Dynasty Leagues
David Montgomery

Can Managers Look to Sell High on David Montgomery This Year?
Malik Willis

a Low-Cost Dynasty Target in Miami?
Terrance Ferguson

Can Terrance Ferguson Still be the Tight End to Roster in Los Angeles?
CFB

Can Eric Singleton Jr. Fully Break Out at Third School?
CFB

Katin Houser Steps into QB1 Role for Illinois
CFB

Savion Hiter an Immediate Impact Freshman for Michigan
CFB

Isaiah Horton Set to Take Over KC Concepcion's Role
CFB

UCLA Transfer Karson Gordon Signs with Austin Peay
CFB

Will Muschamp Bringing New Intensity to Texas Practices
Gary Woodland

Brings Boom-or-Bust Potential to Memorial
Jordan Spieth

Still Searching for a Breakthrough
Ted Hurst

Can Ted Hurst Find Consistent Fantasy Success in a Crowded Receiver Room?
Alex Smalley

Brings Elite Form to Memorial Tournament
Jayden Reed

Still an Unproven Dynasty Asset
Justin Rose

Looks to Recapture Memorial Tournament Success
Cameron Young

Looks to Get Back to His Contending Ways at Murifield Village
Brenton Strange

a Safe, Young Dynasty Depth Piece
Chris Gotterup

Needs to Find Fairways at Muirfield Village
Si Woo Kim

Looks to Stay Hot at Memorial Tournament
Matt Fitzpatrick

Positioned for Success at Muirfield Village
Jalen Chatfield

Records Two Assists in Tuesday's Loss
Keegan Bradley

Looking for Another Strong Finish at Muirfield
Nikolaj Ehlers

Nets Two Goals in Game 1 Loss to Golden Knights
Shea Theodore

Notches Three Points in Game 1 Win
Brayden McNabb

Sets Up Three Goals in Game 1 Win Over Hurricanes
Justin Thomas

is an Exciting Play This Week in Ohio
Brett Howden

Starts Finals With Multi-Point Effort
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Win Memorial Tournament for Third Consecutive Year
Tomas Hertl

Scores Game-Winner in Finals Opener
Rory McIlroy

Looking for Better Performance at Muirfield Village
Drake Baldwin

Could Return During Braves Next Homestand
Garrett Crochet

Diagnosed With Low-Grade Lat Strain
Russell Henley

Coming to Ohio on the Heels of Latest Victory
Tommy Fleetwood

Looking for Better Iron Play at Memorial Tournament
Patrick Cantlay

Looks to Continue Dominance at Muirfield Village
Ludvig Aberg

a Great Fit for Muirfield Village
Isaiah Hartenstein

Hopeful to Stay with Oklahoma City
Luguentz Dort

Wants to Remain with Thunder
Mitchell Robinson

is Questionable for Game 1
Moussa Diabaté

Moussa Diabate Has Contract Guaranteed for 2026-2027 Season
Oso Ighodaro

Gets Guaranteed Contract for Next Season
NAS

Chris MacFarland Joins Predators as President and General Manager
VAN

Canucks Name Manny Malhotra as New Head Coach
Brendan Gallagher

to Leave Canadiens This Offseason
Patrik Laine

Looking Forward to Free Agency
Jeremy Lauzon

Returns to Action Tuesday
Zach Werenski

Wins 2025-26 Norris Trophy
Aaron Judge

Out on Tuesday With Rib/Shoulder Injury
Josh Hader

Set to Return from Injured List on Tuesday
CFB

SEC Coach Calls Buster Faulkner a "Home-Run Hire"
CFB

Auburn a Sleeper in the SEC Under Alex Golesh?
CFB

Noah Fifita Primed for Strong 2026 Campaign
CFB

Oregon Assistant Coach Charged with DUII, Reckless Driving
CFB

Tight End Nick Pollack Commits to Clemson
Akshay Bhatia

Needs the Driver to be True in Ohio
Aaron Rai

Primed to take on the Memorial Tournament
J.J. Spaun

Rebounded at Charles Schwab Challenge
Xander Schauffele

One to Watch This Week in Ohio
Elly De La Cruz

to Miss 2-4 Weeks of Action
Chase Burns

is Scratched Due to Illness
Deiveson Figueiredo

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Song Yadong

Gets Second-Round Submission Win
Zhang Mingyang

Suffers Back-To-Back Losses
Alonzo Menifield

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Sergei Pavlovich

Scores First-Round Knockout Win
Cameron Smotherman

Suffers Third Loss In A Row
Edwin Arroyo

Reds Promote Top Infield Prospect Edwin Arroyo, Viewed as Priority Pick Up Ahead of MLB Debut
Kai Asakura

Earns His First UFC Win
Elly De La Cruz

Placed on IL with Right Hamstring Tightness
Denny Hamlin

Earns the first Nashville Cup Series Victory of his Career on Sunday
Christopher Bell

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Earns First Career Podium Finish at Nashville
Ryan Blaney

Scores A Solid Top-10 Finish at Nashville
Kyle Larson

Top-10 Streak at Nashville Ends after Late Flat Tire Spin
Elly De La Cruz

Exits with Hamstring Tightness
Tyler Reddick

Is One of the Top Favorites to Win at Nashville
Kyle Larson

May Continue his Top-10 Consistency at Nashville this week
Christopher Bell

Is One of the Top Competitors for the Win at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Is A Must Start for Nashville DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

has Plenty of Upside for Nashville DFS Lineups
William Byron

Is William Byron A Playable DFS Option for Nashville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar

Is Likely to have Another Solid Result at Nashville
NASCAR

Should Fantasy Players Roster Bubba Wallace at Nashville?
Chris Buescher

Is A Decent All-Around DFS Option for Nashville Lineups
Daniel Suarez

is Likely to Drop Positions during the Cracker Barrel 400
Garrett Crochet

Suffers Setback, Likely to Undergo MRI for Lat Tightness
Denny Hamlin

Could Denny Hamlin Dominate at Nashville?
Ryan Blaney

Is a DFS Tournament Option at Nashville
Ty Gibbs

Don't Overlook Ty Gibbs at Nashville
Joey Logano

Could Show Life at Nashville
Ross Chastain

Needs a Good Run at Nashville
Chet Holmgren

Fails to Step Up in the Season Finale
Cason Wallace

Ends Postseason with Strong Showing
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Caps MVP Season with Game 7 Exit
Stephon Castle

Continues Postseason Run with 16 Points
Julian Champagnie

Shines in Series-Clinching Win
De'Aaron Fox

Provides Secondary Punch in Game 7 Triumph
Victor Wembanyama

Earns Conference Finals MVP in Spurs' Game 7 Win
NBA

Warriors Prioritize Depth Around Returning Steve Kerr
Donovan Mitchell

Remains Cleveland's Top Priority
Adou Thiero

Remains a Lakers Development Project
NBA

76ers Hire Mike Gansey as President of Basketball Operations
NBA

Chicago Bulls Explore Kevin Young as Coaching Candidate
Kyrie Irving

Reports He's Nearing Full Strength in ACL Recovery
Lane Hutson

Posts a Power-Play Assist in Game 5 Loss
Cole Caufield

Nets a Power-Play Goal in Season-Ending Loss
Seth Jarvis

Closes Out East Finals With Multi-Point Game
Logan Stankoven

Notches Three Points in Big Game 5 Win
Taylor Hall

Racks Up Three Points in Series-Clinching Win
Frederik Andersen

Remains Stellar as Hurricanes Clinch Finals Berth
Jacob Gonzalez

is Heading to the Big Leagues
Munetaka Murakami

Exits with Hamstring Tightness
Mitchell Robinson

Plans to Play in Game 1 After Finger Surgery
Ajay Mitchell

Ruled Out for Game 7
Jalen Williams

Unavailable in Decisive Game 7
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez is Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Deiveson Figueiredo

Set For UFC Macau Main Event
MMA

Yadong Song Returns At UFC Macau
Alonzo Menifield

An Underdog At UFC Macau
Zhang Mingyang

Set For UFC Macau Co-Main Event
Tallison Teixeira

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Sergei Pavlovich

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Cameron Smotherman

Looks To Bounce Back
Kai Asakura

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
CFB

Faizon Brandon In Position to Start Week 1
CFB

Dane Weber Commits to Cal
CFB

Joey McGuire Attempts to Add Texas to Schedule
CFB

Mike Leach on 2027 College Football Hall of Fame Ballot
CFB

Maryland, Baylor Schedule Home-and-Home
CFB

Taron Dickens Decommits From North Carolina
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF