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Reviewing Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions For 2016

During the offseason, I joined a bunch of my fellow Rotoballer writers in boldly predicting what might occur in the upcoming season. I foolishly ended that piece's intro with ,"Am I a Champ or a Chump?" despite the fact that no one had any idea how I did yet. The season is over, so now I can ask if I'm a Champ or a Chump. Let's find out!

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Grading the Predictions

1. Yasiel Puig Fails To Record 400 PAs

Puig was generally taken as a midrounder with upside in 2016 drafts, and I couldn't figure out why. I saw a player with no discernible talents and a Dodgers team loaded with OF depth, and speculated that the Dodgers would limit him to a fourth outfielder's role by the end of the year. The Dodgers went even further, demoting Puig to the minors after failing to trade him in July. He ended up recording 368 PAs, over which he disappointed owners with a .263/.323/.416 triple slash line with 11 bombs and five steals. Puig does not have the profile to sustain the elevated BABIP that carried him at first, and offers little power or speed to satisfy fantasy owners. Hopefully picking against him next year will no longer be bold. Grade: A

2. Steven Wright Will Matter In All Fantasy Formats

What exactly it means to "matter" is admittedly vague, but my analysis mentioned "double digit victories" and "league average ratios" that would make him a must own in deep formats while proving stream worthy in even shallow leagues. I also may have mentioned RA Dickey's Cy Young season, a prediction that looked perfectly reasonable when he had a 2.68 ERA in the first half. A shoulder injury slowed him after that, but his final line (13-6, 3.33 ERA) exceeded the predictions quoted above. To the delight of knuckleball fans everywhere, Wright has clearly established himself as an MLB-caliber starter. I'm 2 for 2! Grade: A+

3. Jose Peraza Records 500 PAs And Steals 40 Bases

Peraza registered only 256 PAs and 21 steals, so I missed the mark on this one. I thought the Reds would find a way to rid themselves of Brandon Phillips or let Peraza play in the OF, but Adam Duvall's emergence and Phillips's stubborn refusal to leave Cincinnati doomed Peraza to being a part time player. Still, his .324/.352/.411 line does nothing to dissuade me from liking Peraza next year, when 40 steals may not be bold enough. He was very effective when on the field, so I'll allow myself some credit here. Grade: C

4. Kevin Plawecki Will Record More PAs as a C Than Travis d'Arnaud

Plawecki recorded 148 PAs to his teammate's 250 as a catcher, so this prediction is wrong on the surface. It becomes even more wrong when you consider the analysis that went into it. I thought that TDA's bat was too valuable to sit, so the Mets would use him at first vs. LHP and to spell David Wright at third base. This would give him a Buster Posey amount of PAs while hiding his substandard glove at C. Unfortunately, last year's stellar line of .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers declined to just .247/.307/.323 with four this year in a similar number of PAs. Both his FB% (41.7% to 30.8%) and HR/FB (15% to 6.5%) declined to support TDA's lackluster totals. Meanwhile, Plawecki did absolutely nothing with the playing time opened up by more TDA health issues, as his .197/.298/.265 with a single dinger failed to help even NL-Only owners with two C slots to fill. Grade: F

5. Jarrod Dyson Will Be A Top 15 Outfielder

Sadly, Dyson was once again unable to escape the platoon role he's been shoehorned into. He compiled only 337 PAs, making it impossible to record Top 15 OF value. I didn't completely miss the boat, however, as 337 PAs is a new career best for playing time. His 30 SBs were also great for fantasy owners, and Dyson combined them with a respectable batting average for the first time in his career (.278). Almost anyone would say that the Royals hurt themselves by not exploring alternative options to Alcides Escobar in the leadoff slot, a decision that may have cost Dyson some counting stats. Like Peraza before him, this one gives me partial credit. Grade: C

6. Drew Storen Will Be A Top 10 Fantasy Closer

Oh dear God! Behold my worst bold prediction by far! Storen saw his strikeout rate collapse relative to 2015 (29.4% to 21.1%) while developing a bad case of gopheritis (14% HR/FB). The resulting 5.23 ERA was nowhere near enough to unseat young Roberto Ozuna from the closer's role in Toronto, and he finished with only three saves. An eventual trade to Seattle didn't help either, as his numbers were too poor to merit a second look when the Mariners started scrambling for a closer. Maybe he'll bounce back next year, but this prediction was an unmitigated disaster. Grade: F-

7. Atlanta Braves Pitchers Will Record More Saves Than Chicago Cubs Pitchers

The Braves were projected to be so terrible that many owners didn't bother to keep tabs on their unsettled ninth inning. The Cubs were projected to be the best team in baseball. I argued that even bad teams produce a useful number of save opportunities, while the Cubs might win by too much to produce a lot of saves. My analysis was right on the money, as Chicago's 38 saves paled in comparison to Atlanta's 39! Yes, I won this by one save. Lest you think that the small margin disproves my original analysis, I'll point out that I could have substituted the Phillies (43 saves), A's (42), Rays (also 42), or Brewers (46) as the bad team instead of the Braves and still won this prediction. Grade: A-

8. The Miami Marlins Will Win The NL East

Miami finished 79-82, 15.5 GB of division winning Washington. My sleeper team, intended to find overlooked Ws, busted big time. In my defense, Giancarlo Stanton must have set a Guinness world record for freak injuries by now, and no one saw an 80 game suspension for PEDs coming for Dee Gordon. I also expected one of the starters to step up as a #2 behind Jose Fernandez, but that did not happen either. The Fernandez tragedy easily transcends all of these issues in a way that goes well beyond baseball, and no one could blame the Marlins if it takes them multiple years to truly get over the shock. He will be sorely missed by all baseball fans. Grade: F

9. Stephen Strasburg Will Win NL Cy Young

Strasburg's 15-4 record will appeal to certain voters, and his excellent 30.6% K% suggests that it was not a fluke. However, an elbow injury limited him to just 147.2 IP this year, making his case for the award an inferior version of Clayton Kershaw's. His 3.60 ERA is also a tad high, even if a strong 2.92 FIP is hiding beneath it. Awards haven't been announced yet, but this is clearly a loss. His name isn't even brought up in the Cy debate. Washington's ace was very good when healthy, so I'll allow myself partial credit again. Grade: D+

10. Yangervis Solarte Will Matter In All Formats

I went with this vague prediction again, this time for a hitter. I speculated that Solarte could hit .290 with 20+ homers in 2016, as his BABIP was limited by a subpar LD% while his power was clearly trending upward. His .286/.341/.467 line with 15 HR in 443 PAs fell just short, but my analysis was mostly right. His LD% improved to a league average 21.9%, boosting his BABIP to .306 from .279 the year before. His prorated stats would also include 20 bombs over a full season. The Padres generally hit him cleanup, allowing Solarte to compile 71 RBI as well. With eligibility at first, second, and third heading into the season, he was probably an important injury replacement for somebody in every league, and he was clearly worth owning in deeper formats. I think I'm right here, but the vagueness of the original prediction hurts my grade a little. Grade: B

 




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kevin Huerter

Active on Sunday Night
Caris LeVert

Duncan Robinson, Caris LeVert Available Sunday
Dean Wade

Max Strus Replaces Dean Wade in Starting Lineup Sunday
Luke Kornet

Iffy for Monday
Larry Nance Jr.

Won't Play Sunday
De'Aaron Fox

Listed as Questionable for Monday's Action
Jalen Williams

Officially Available for Game 1 Against Spurs
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Named MVP for Second Straight Year
Jonah Coleman

is an Intriguing Power Back to Target in Dynasty Leagues
Colt Emerson

Mariners Promoting Top Prospect Colt Emerson to Major Leagues
Darius Slayton

Lacking Long-Term Upside for Dynasty Managers
Keaton Mitchell

a Prime Dynasty Handcuff Option Entering First Season in L.A.
Jadarian Price

Looks Like the Running Back of the Future in Seattle
Isaiah Bond

Dynasty Outlook Clouded by Uncertain Role in Cleveland
James Cook III

Remains a High-End Dynasty RB1 Entering 2026
Lamar Jackson

Poised for Bounce Back Season in 2026
Bucky Irving

Expected to Be Ready for Training Camp
Kyle Williams

Deep Threat Kyle Williams Facing Uphill Battle for Playing Time
Michael Pittman Jr.

Could Receive Short-Term Value Uptick in PPR Leagues
Stefon Diggs

Chiefs, Commanders Could Make Sense for Stefon Diggs
Will Howard

Dynasty Value Dealt a Blow
Jaylen Warren

Should Benefit From Veteran QB's Return to Pittsburgh
Drew Allar

Could Continue to Hold Dynasty Value
Pat Freiermuth

Could See a Small Dynasty Bump With Veteran QB Returning
DK Metcalf

A Dynasty Sell Candidate With Veteran QB Returning?
Bones Hyland

Wants to Stay in Minnesota
Mike Conley

Hints He Will Continue Playing Next Season
Kevin Huerter

Iffy for Sunday Night
Caris LeVert

Questionable for Game 7
Duncan Robinson

Back on Injury Report Ahead of Game 7
Larry Nance Jr.

Likely Out Sunday Due to Illness
Munetaka Murakami

Fantastic First Season Continues With Two More Homers
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Dazzles With 13-Strikeout Complete Game on Saturday
Aaron Rodgers

Signs One-Year Deal With Steelers
Blake Snell

to Undergo Elbow Surgery on Tuesday
Clay Holmes

Could Miss Around Three Months
Jose Altuve

Exits After Swing
Corey Seager

Absent With Back Spasms on Saturday
Jeremy Lauzon

Misses Saturday's Practice
Mark Stone

Doesn't Practice Saturday
Josh Manson

Misses Practice, Considered Day-to-Day
Brent Burns

Day-to-Day Ahead of Conference Finals
Cale Makar

Considered Day-to-Day
Alex Lyon

Likely to Start Game 6 Against Canadiens
Owen Power

Available Saturday
Isaac TeSlaa

Can Isaac TeSlaa Carve Out a Larger Role in Detroit Going Forward?
Troy Franklin

Facing Uphill Battle for Playing Time in Denver
Trevor Lawrence

Should Trevor Lawrence Be Valued as a Dynasty QB1?
Courtland Sutton

in Line for Reduced Role in Denver?
Trevor Story

Hits the Injured List With Groin Injury
Blake Snell

Likely to Need Elbow Surgery
Duncan Robinson

Nets 14 Points With Four Triples
Cade Cunningham

Contributes 21 Points in Game 6 Win
Jalen Duren

Bounces Back With Double-Double
Anthony Edwards

Finishes Season-Ending Loss With 24 Points
Victor Wembanyama

Tallies 19 Points in Friday's Win
De'Aaron Fox

Highly Effective in Blowout Win
Stephon Castle

Shines in Series-Clincher
Kyle Schwarber

on a Heater, Hits Two More Homers to Take Major-League Lead
Clay Holmes

Suffers Fractured Fibula on Friday Night
Blake Snell

Heads to 15-Day Injured List
Blake Snell

Scratched From Start on Friday for Undisclosed Reasons
Max Fried

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Bone Bruise
CFB

Julian Sayin Looking To Build Off Of Strong Debut Season
CFB

College GameDay Set for First Three Weeks
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Aiming For Ohio State Receiving Records
CFB

Keshaun Singleton Projects as Auburn's WR1
CFB

Jeremiah Cobb Impresses New Auburn Staff
CFB

Alberto Mendoza Very Likely to Start for Georgia Tech
CFB

Charles Woodson Jr. Commits to Michigan
Jordan Westburg

to Have Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Melquizael Costa

Set For UFC Vegas 117 Main Event
Arnold Allen

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 117
Daniel Santos

Set For UFC Vegas 117 Co-Main Event
MMA

Dohoo Choi Returns At UFC Vegas 117
Juan Diaz

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Malcolm Wellmaker

Looks To Bounce Back
Christian Edwards

Set For His UFC Debut
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Tarik Skubal

Resumes Playing Catch, Ahead of Schedule?
Lane Hutson

Contributes Two Assists in Game 5 Victory
Nick Suzuki

Amasses Three Points in Crucial Victory Thursday
Juraj Slafkovsky

Dishes Out Three Assists in Game 5 Win
Carter Hart

Stops 31 Pucks in Series-Clinching Win
Pavel Dorofeyev

Enjoys Second Consecutive Multi-Goal Game
Shea Theodore

Records Two Points in Game 6 Win
Mitchell Marner

Scores Special Goal in Series-Clincher
Ryan Johnson

Takes Over as Canucks GM, Sedins Promoted to Co-Presidents
Drew Helleson

Won't Play Thursday
Radko Gudas

Unlikely to Play Thursday
Jeremy Lauzon

Remains Out Thursday
Mark Stone

Misses Third Consecutive Game
EDM

Kris Knoblauch Fired as Oilers Head Coach
CFB

Virginia Tech Lands Commitment from Four-Star QB Peter Bourque
Byron Buxton

Scratched on Thursday With Hip Soreness
Cal Raleigh

Heading to Injured List With Oblique Strain
Francisco Alvarez

has Knee Surgery, Expected to Miss Eight Weeks
Quinn Hughes

Finishes Postseason With 15 Points
Cal Raleigh

Exits With Apparent Side Injury on Wednesday Night
Juan Soto

X-Rays Come Back Negative on Juan Soto's Ankle
CFB

NFL Veteran Tom Moore Joins Iowa Coaching Staff
CFB

Can Cam Cook Dominate in Return to Big 12?
CFB

ACC, Big 12 Support 24-Team College Football Playoff
CFB

Anthony Colandrea Looking to Elevate Nebraska Back to National Contention
CFB

Kwazi Gilmer Set for Big Impact at Nebraska
Justin Thomas

Trending Well Ahead of PGA Championship Despite Concerning Form
J.J. Spaun

Trending Up Ahead of PGA Championship
Adam Scott

Riding Strong Form Into PGA Championship
Patrick Reed

Looking to Make Another Run at PGA Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Looks to Build on Strong Finish at Truist Championship
Sam Burns

Must Keep Ball in Play at PGA Championship
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Complete Career Grand Slam at Aronimink
Brandt Snedeker

Not the Best Option for the PGA Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

a Volatile Option at PGA Championship
Maverick McNealy

Seeking Better Start in Philadelphia
Harry Hall

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Aronimink
Hideki Matsuyama

Attempts to Improve Over 2025 PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Defend PGA Championship at Aronimink
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Keep Momentum Rolling in Philadelphia
Ben Griffin

Attempting to Bounce Back After Truist Championship
CFB

Transfer Defensive Lineman Devarrick Woods Commits to Clemson
Harris English

Will Need His Putter to Thrive at Aronimink
Akshay Bhatia

Creative Flair Could Show Itself in Philadelphia
Keegan Bradley

Knows the Aronimink Golf Club Well
Si Woo Kim

Struggles at Truist Championship
Gary Woodland

Can Continue Incredible 2026 Season at PGA Championship
Xander Schauffele

In Excellent Form Heading to PGA Championship
CFB

Isaac Brown Has All-American Upside in 2026
CFB

Nyck Harbor Heading into Breakout Year?
CFB

Notre Dame, USC in Discussions to Resume Rivalry Series
CFB

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Has Eyes on ACC Title
CFB

Ahmad Hardy's Gunshot Wound Not Viewed as Career-Threatening
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF