X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Reviewing Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions For 2016

During the offseason, I joined a bunch of my fellow Rotoballer writers in boldly predicting what might occur in the upcoming season. I foolishly ended that piece's intro with ,"Am I a Champ or a Chump?" despite the fact that no one had any idea how I did yet. The season is over, so now I can ask if I'm a Champ or a Chump. Let's find out!

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Grading the Predictions

1. Yasiel Puig Fails To Record 400 PAs

Puig was generally taken as a midrounder with upside in 2016 drafts, and I couldn't figure out why. I saw a player with no discernible talents and a Dodgers team loaded with OF depth, and speculated that the Dodgers would limit him to a fourth outfielder's role by the end of the year. The Dodgers went even further, demoting Puig to the minors after failing to trade him in July. He ended up recording 368 PAs, over which he disappointed owners with a .263/.323/.416 triple slash line with 11 bombs and five steals. Puig does not have the profile to sustain the elevated BABIP that carried him at first, and offers little power or speed to satisfy fantasy owners. Hopefully picking against him next year will no longer be bold. Grade: A

2. Steven Wright Will Matter In All Fantasy Formats

What exactly it means to "matter" is admittedly vague, but my analysis mentioned "double digit victories" and "league average ratios" that would make him a must own in deep formats while proving stream worthy in even shallow leagues. I also may have mentioned RA Dickey's Cy Young season, a prediction that looked perfectly reasonable when he had a 2.68 ERA in the first half. A shoulder injury slowed him after that, but his final line (13-6, 3.33 ERA) exceeded the predictions quoted above. To the delight of knuckleball fans everywhere, Wright has clearly established himself as an MLB-caliber starter. I'm 2 for 2! Grade: A+

3. Jose Peraza Records 500 PAs And Steals 40 Bases

Peraza registered only 256 PAs and 21 steals, so I missed the mark on this one. I thought the Reds would find a way to rid themselves of Brandon Phillips or let Peraza play in the OF, but Adam Duvall's emergence and Phillips's stubborn refusal to leave Cincinnati doomed Peraza to being a part time player. Still, his .324/.352/.411 line does nothing to dissuade me from liking Peraza next year, when 40 steals may not be bold enough. He was very effective when on the field, so I'll allow myself some credit here. Grade: C

4. Kevin Plawecki Will Record More PAs as a C Than Travis d'Arnaud

Plawecki recorded 148 PAs to his teammate's 250 as a catcher, so this prediction is wrong on the surface. It becomes even more wrong when you consider the analysis that went into it. I thought that TDA's bat was too valuable to sit, so the Mets would use him at first vs. LHP and to spell David Wright at third base. This would give him a Buster Posey amount of PAs while hiding his substandard glove at C. Unfortunately, last year's stellar line of .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers declined to just .247/.307/.323 with four this year in a similar number of PAs. Both his FB% (41.7% to 30.8%) and HR/FB (15% to 6.5%) declined to support TDA's lackluster totals. Meanwhile, Plawecki did absolutely nothing with the playing time opened up by more TDA health issues, as his .197/.298/.265 with a single dinger failed to help even NL-Only owners with two C slots to fill. Grade: F

5. Jarrod Dyson Will Be A Top 15 Outfielder

Sadly, Dyson was once again unable to escape the platoon role he's been shoehorned into. He compiled only 337 PAs, making it impossible to record Top 15 OF value. I didn't completely miss the boat, however, as 337 PAs is a new career best for playing time. His 30 SBs were also great for fantasy owners, and Dyson combined them with a respectable batting average for the first time in his career (.278). Almost anyone would say that the Royals hurt themselves by not exploring alternative options to Alcides Escobar in the leadoff slot, a decision that may have cost Dyson some counting stats. Like Peraza before him, this one gives me partial credit. Grade: C

6. Drew Storen Will Be A Top 10 Fantasy Closer

Oh dear God! Behold my worst bold prediction by far! Storen saw his strikeout rate collapse relative to 2015 (29.4% to 21.1%) while developing a bad case of gopheritis (14% HR/FB). The resulting 5.23 ERA was nowhere near enough to unseat young Roberto Ozuna from the closer's role in Toronto, and he finished with only three saves. An eventual trade to Seattle didn't help either, as his numbers were too poor to merit a second look when the Mariners started scrambling for a closer. Maybe he'll bounce back next year, but this prediction was an unmitigated disaster. Grade: F-

7. Atlanta Braves Pitchers Will Record More Saves Than Chicago Cubs Pitchers

The Braves were projected to be so terrible that many owners didn't bother to keep tabs on their unsettled ninth inning. The Cubs were projected to be the best team in baseball. I argued that even bad teams produce a useful number of save opportunities, while the Cubs might win by too much to produce a lot of saves. My analysis was right on the money, as Chicago's 38 saves paled in comparison to Atlanta's 39! Yes, I won this by one save. Lest you think that the small margin disproves my original analysis, I'll point out that I could have substituted the Phillies (43 saves), A's (42), Rays (also 42), or Brewers (46) as the bad team instead of the Braves and still won this prediction. Grade: A-

8. The Miami Marlins Will Win The NL East

Miami finished 79-82, 15.5 GB of division winning Washington. My sleeper team, intended to find overlooked Ws, busted big time. In my defense, Giancarlo Stanton must have set a Guinness world record for freak injuries by now, and no one saw an 80 game suspension for PEDs coming for Dee Gordon. I also expected one of the starters to step up as a #2 behind Jose Fernandez, but that did not happen either. The Fernandez tragedy easily transcends all of these issues in a way that goes well beyond baseball, and no one could blame the Marlins if it takes them multiple years to truly get over the shock. He will be sorely missed by all baseball fans. Grade: F

9. Stephen Strasburg Will Win NL Cy Young

Strasburg's 15-4 record will appeal to certain voters, and his excellent 30.6% K% suggests that it was not a fluke. However, an elbow injury limited him to just 147.2 IP this year, making his case for the award an inferior version of Clayton Kershaw's. His 3.60 ERA is also a tad high, even if a strong 2.92 FIP is hiding beneath it. Awards haven't been announced yet, but this is clearly a loss. His name isn't even brought up in the Cy debate. Washington's ace was very good when healthy, so I'll allow myself partial credit again. Grade: D+

10. Yangervis Solarte Will Matter In All Formats

I went with this vague prediction again, this time for a hitter. I speculated that Solarte could hit .290 with 20+ homers in 2016, as his BABIP was limited by a subpar LD% while his power was clearly trending upward. His .286/.341/.467 line with 15 HR in 443 PAs fell just short, but my analysis was mostly right. His LD% improved to a league average 21.9%, boosting his BABIP to .306 from .279 the year before. His prorated stats would also include 20 bombs over a full season. The Padres generally hit him cleanup, allowing Solarte to compile 71 RBI as well. With eligibility at first, second, and third heading into the season, he was probably an important injury replacement for somebody in every league, and he was clearly worth owning in deeper formats. I think I'm right here, but the vagueness of the original prediction hurts my grade a little. Grade: B

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Available vs. Hornets
Norman Powell

Available vs. Hornets
Dante Exum

Remains Out vs. Grizzlies
Terrence Shannon Jr.

Questionable With Left Foot Soreness
Jayden Daniels

Will Not Need Surgery on Dislocated Elbow
Randy Brown

Set For UFC Vegas 111 Main Event
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 111
Matt Schnell

Set For UFC Vegas 111 Co-Main Event
Uros Medic

Aims To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Muslim Salikhov

Looks For His Fourth Consecutive Win
Chris Padilla

Looks To Remain Unbeaten In The UFC
Chris Kreider

Extends Goal Streak to Four Games
Ismael Bonfim

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Nikita Kucherov

Lifts Lightning Past Golden Knights
Marco Tulio

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Jalen Chatfield

Injured in Thursday's WIn
Christian Leroy Duncan

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 111 Main Card
Dougie Hamilton

Exits Early Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

Expected to Be Fine for Saturday
Michael Misa

Sharks Place Michael Misa on Injured Reserve
Aaron Wiggins

Sidelined Friday
Luguentz Dort

 Questionable for Friday
Chet Holmgren

Available for Friday's Matchup With Kings
Zach LaVine

Set to Return Friday
Domantas Sabonis

Questionable to Suit Up Friday
Terance Mann

Considered Probable for Friday's Cup Game
Taurean Prince

Questionable to Play Bulls
Dean Wade

Out Against Wizards
Ayo Dosunmu

Questionable for Friday's Game
Kelly Olynyk

Tagged as Questionable for Friday
Jeremy Sochan

Listed as Questionable for Meeting With Rockets
Steven Adams

May Remain Out Friday
Collin Sexton

Listed as Probable for Friday
Dereck Lively II

Expected to Return Next Week
Caris LeVert

Questionable for Friday
Grayson Allen

Good to Go Thursday
Jalen Green

Upgraded to Available
Brock Purdy

Getting Closer, Still Questionable for Week 10
Chris Godwin

Might Not Return Until Late November, Early December
Daniel Jones

Colts Believe in Daniel Jones as Their Franchise QB
Puka Nacua

Practices in Full, Says he Feels Good
A.J. Brown

Listed as Full Participant in Thursday's Practice
Saquon Barkley

Practicing in Full Coming Out of Bye Week
Kyle Tucker

Headlines List of 13 Players to Receive Qualifying Offers
Pete Fairbanks

Becomes a Free Agent
Filip Hallander

Out Against Capitals
Tyson Kozak

Available Versus Blues
Cody Glass

Returns to Action Thursday
Connor Brown

Out on Thursday
Mats Zuccarello

Could Be an Option Friday
Matt Duchene

Remains Out Thursday
Harold Fannin Jr.

Misses Practice With Hamstring Injury
Roope Hintz

a Game-Time Call Thursday
CFB

Luke Fickell Will Return as Wisconsin's Head Coach in 2026
NFL

Antonio Brown Extradited to the United States on Attempted Murder Charge
Aaron Jones Sr.

Returns to Practice in a Limited Capacity on Thursday
D'Andre Swift

on Track to Return After Full Practice
A.J. Brown

Back at Practice After Bye Week
Saquon Barkley

Practicing on Thursday
Rhamondre Stevenson

Misses Another Practice, Availability in Doubt
Garrett Wilson

Cleared for Week 10 Matchup
Rico Dowdle

Back at Practice on Thursday
Bo Bichette

Blue Jays Extend Qualifying Offer to Bo Bichette
Craig Stammen

Named Padres New Manager
Michael Pittman Jr.

Returns to Thursday's Practice
James Cook

Back on the Field on Thursday
Nick Chubb

Back at Practice on Thursday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Not at Practice Again on Thursday
Chris Godwin

Misses Thursday's Practice
K'Andre Miller

Could Return to Action Thursday
Sean Monahan

Injured in Wednesday's Loss
Tyler Bertuzzi

Pots Third-Period Hat Trick Wednesday
Macklin Celebrini

Leads Sharks Past Kraken
Jakob Chychrun

Records Three Assists Wednesday
Alex Ovechkin

Scores 900th Career Goal
Jorge Polanco

Declines his 2026 Option to Become a Free Agent
Adam Gaudette

Available Against Kraken
Scott Laughton

Set for Season Debut Wednesday
Chris Sale

Braves Picking Up Chris Sale's 2026 Option
Michael Thorbjornsen

Poised to Continue Hot Play in Mexico
Davis Riley

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of World Wide Technology Championship
Taylor Montgomery

Leaning on Putter at World Wide Technology Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Offers Strong Value at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Griffin

Looks to Stay Hot at El Cardonal
Nick Dunlap

Looking to Find His Game at El Cardonal
Wyndham Clark

Searching for Consistency at El Cardonal
Michael Brennan

Aims to Extend Fairytale Start at El Cardonal
Shane Bieber

Staying in Toronto for 2026
Salvador Perez

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Royals
Trevor Story

Opts in for Remaining Two Years on his Contract
Yu Darvish

to Miss All of 2026 Following Flexor-Tendon Surgery
Shota Imanaga

Becomes a Free Agent
Luis Robert Jr.

White Sox Pick Up 2026 Option on Luis Robert Jr.
CFB

LJ Martin Expected to Play in Top-10 Matchup Against Texas Tech
PGA

LIV Golf Expanding To 72-Hole Format In 2026
Atlanta Braves

Braves Hire Walt Weiss as Their Next Manager
Kris Bubic

Cleared to Begin a Throwing Program
Brandon Woodruff

Declines Mutual Option for 2026
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Exercise 2026 Option on Freddy Peralta
Lucas Giolito

Declines his 2026 Player Option
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Sixth at Procore Championship
PGA

Matti Schmid Finishes Tied for 46th at Baycurrent Classic
Keith Mitchell

Finishes Tied for 10th at Baycurrent Classic
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied for 21st at Genesis Championship
Mackenzie Hughes

Misses The Cut at Sanderson Farms Championship
Max Greyserman

Finishes Second at Baycurrent Classic
Austin Eckroat

Finishes Tied for 56th at Baycurrent Classic
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 56th at Bank of Utah Championship
Pete Alonso

Officially Opts Out of his Contract With Mets
Alex Bregman

Opts Out of his Contract With Boston
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz on the Open Market This Winter
Cody Bellinger

Becomes Free Agent After Opting Out
Kyle Larson

Wins His Second NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix
Ryan Blaney

Concludes the 2025 Season with A Win at Phoenix
William Byron

Strong Championship Effort Ends With Late-Race Flat-Tire Crash
Denny Hamlin

Overtime Four-Tire Call Costs Denny Hamlin the Championship
Chase Briscoe

Championship Bid Never Really Started After Two Tire Failures
Brad Keselowski

Nearly Steals Phoenix Race
David Onama

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Steve Garcia

Scores First-Round TKO Win
Ante Delija

Suffers His First UFC Loss
CFB

Dylan Raiola Suffers Season-Ending Injury
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Gets Knockout Win
Themba Gorimbo

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 110
Jeremiah Wells

Gets Back In The Win Column
Yadier del Valle

Remains Undefeated
Isaac Dulgarian

Cut By UFC Following Submission Loss
Daniel Frunza

Still Winless In The UFC
Charles Radtke

Dominates Daniel Frunza
Allan Nascimento

Gets Submission Win
Austin Cindric

is A Driver to Avoid for Phoenix DFS Lineups
Alex Bowman

Could Alex Bowman be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Phoenix?
Noah Gragson

Should DFS Players Roster Noah Gragson At Phoenix?
Erik Jones

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering for DFS at Phoenix?
Michael McDowell

an Easy Recommendation for DFS at Phoenix
Chase Briscoe

Probably Won't Win the Title
Joey Logano

Could Play Spoiler in Championship Battle at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Seeking to End Winless Drought, but Probably Won't Have the Speed
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looks to Protect Top-10 Points Finish at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Hasn't Been Fast at Phoenix With RFK Racing
Daniel Suarez

With Nothing at Stake, Expect Little From Daniel Suarez
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well, but Will Probably Finish Worse Than he Starts
Chris Buescher

Ryan Preece has a Shot to Overtake Chris Buescher as RFK Racing's Lead Driver
Austin Dillon

Looks to Avoid Finishing Last in NASCAR Playoffs
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Might be a Worthy DFS Option

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP