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Antonio Losada looks at wide receiver groups expected to share the targets among their players, making the WR/TE involved bad assets to draft for the upcoming 2020 season.
We're talking about fantasy football here, and in fantasy, football volume is the key to rostering and fielding a winning team. While everything boils down to that concept, seeking volume calls for looking deeper than just the name and reputation of players. Put a wide receiver or tight end in a stacked offense (one featuring multiple top-tier pass-catchers and one or two great rushers) and his volume--and thus his fantasy outcome--will drop without question. The opportunities will go down and with them the chances of scoring fantasy points.
With that in mind, it makes sense to pursue WRs/TEs with clear and very well defined no. 1 roles without other players threatening their targets. Even if the players in those offenses are not top-tier options they will get all of the opportunities they can handle, which will ultimately benefit them. Those players might not be that good, but they will compensate for it just on pure volume. And the exact opposite is also true: great pass-catchers can rack up points even on low volume, separating themselves from the pack.
Today, I will explore some offenses that enter the 2020 season with a lot of players to throw passes to, making them dubious draft picks for the upcoming year. Let's get to it!
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
New York Giants
I haven't checked the historical numbers, but what PFF projects to happen in the Giants offense come 2020 could be unprecedented. No team in the NFL projects to feature four players that would reach at least 84 targets, let alone five players. Well, no team except the New York Giants. Between the player with the fewest projected targets (Darius Slayton, 84) and the one with the most (Evan Engram, 99) there is only a 15-target gap and a 2.8% difference in target share.
If there is an attack to avoid this upcoming season when it comes to the WR/TE position, then that one must be the Giants'. Engram might be the best option to draft as he won't face much opposition at the tight end position, but even with that, he carries injury concerns. Even if he stays healthy all year long, he would still need to battle for targets with three other wide receivers... and RB Saquon Barkley.
Drafting Barkley is a no-brainer. He projects to finish 2020 as a top-10 player and can both rush the ball and catch it through the air. He will rack up points no matter what all by himself, and the bonus receiving points will just be the cherry on top. The rest of the receiving corps, though, could be too much of a headache for fantasy GMs.
Houston Texans
The Giants might have an ultra-packed offense when it comes to target shares, but the Texans aren't too far down the list. Up to four Texans project to get at least 50 targets but none of them is expected to get more than 80. Cooks' and Fuller's projections are so close when it comes to targets than any of them could finish the year on top of the other, and it is impossible to predict who'll be who.
Randall Cobb was also added to the offense to cover DeAndre Hopkins' exit, and even he (as the expected WR3) could very well enter the 70-target realm. Stills shouldn't be used that much, but he still has value in that he's a deep threat and a boom/bust play with chances to rack up points in bursts.
While drafting Texans receivers late could turn into a good under-the-radar move, spending early-round picks in them will be a tall order for all fantasy GMs. All Texans WRs mentioned above are projected to break the 100-point mark in 2020, but none projects to more than 145 (Brandin Cooks, who would finish the season as just the 125th-best player overall...)
Oakland Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders project as one of the most balanced offenses in the league. Their three wide receivers and tight end combination is almost separated evenly in terms of target share from one player to the next one, but that might not mean good things for fantasy GMs getting any of those players. First of all, the no. 1 pass-catcher of the team is a tight end, and his name is not Ertz/Kittle/Kelce, which I personally don't like that much.
When it comes to wideouts, Ruggs might miss time due to an offseason accident that could leave him out of the first few games of the season if he can't get up to playing shape in time. That would make even more with the target share of the team and bump up Tyrell Williams' targets. Would that also mean that Renfrow could get a chance to be named WR1 and hold onto that role for all season?
There are many doubts around this offense, and on top of that, there will be a year-long focus on what QB Derek Carr does (or does not) manning the team with free-agent signee Marcus Mariota waiting in the sideline to snatch him off the starting role. It's hard to have solid predictions and high expectations on this offense, so I'd pass on all of his assets until at least the 10th round of any 12-team league.
Philadelphia Eagles
Allow me to include the Eagles in this column, Zach Ertz aside. See, if you don't draft the leading tight end from Philadelphia, you can clear all of the other names from your board without feeling bad. The minute Ertz gets drafted and out of the equation, Philly's offense becomes a mess.
There have been voices saying that DeSean Jackson will be the no. 1 receiver. Logic (and projections) says that it should be Jeffery the one carrying the heavier load. The Eagles also added a rookie WR this past draft, and have a very nice TE2 in Goedert. Not to mention Miles Sanders' pass-catching prowess.
The Eagles are one of only two teams (Indianapolis Colts) with four players projected to get between 11% and 16% of the team targets. All of those four WR/TE/RBs are expected to score at least 100 PPR in 2020, with three of them (all but Jalen Reagor) inside the 131-to-141 PPR clip. Who will end the season on top seems impossible to predict at this point.
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