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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/26/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! It's the final Saturday of the regular season, and we're hoping to go out with a bang. There are a lot of games that will be played without much meaning, but that doesn't mean there aren't some opportunities. However, for the ones that do have something on the line, there may be better angles to attack anyway.
So we're going to have most of our focuses on those games. We've got a couple of hitters in the AL West that are going to need to supply the power to lock their division down. We've also got two NL West teams we'll focus on, though one of them is a major fade. Also, if you read Zach's article yesterday, you'll see two returning picks because I like them that much today. If you are looking for more, make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout prop picks.
Below are my favorite four home run props from MLB games on Saturday, September 26, 2026. The odds reflect the best price as of publication, but always shop around other sportsbooks to get better value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/26/2026)
Miguel Vargas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425, Hard Rock)
Let's start on the south side, where it's been quite the year for the White Sox. They've gone from an expected doormat to clinching a spot in the American League playoffs. There's still more to play for, though, as the AL Central title is still up for grabs. Chicago will get a matchup against the Rockies' Jose Quintana, which I just can't pass up.
Miguel Vargas stays hot and hits homer No. 33 to extend the @WhiteSox lead! pic.twitter.com/bwY27DuZxp
— MLB (@MLB) September 19, 2026
As a Rockies fan, I was salivating at the idea of us signing Quintana in the offseason. Was he going to be a threat on the mound? No. Those days are long gone. But he was certainly going to be a prime target to fade. He'd missed over three months of action due to an elbow injury before returning to the rotation against Seattle last Saturday. He gave up multiple homers in that start and we're hopeful the trend will continue today.
Vargas has been a key force in Chicago's lineup this season. He's got a 13.2% barrel rate on the season, which puts him in the 89th percentile. That's added up to 33 homers. Just fantastic numbers to post.
His numbers as of late haven't been the most fruitful, but that's fine by me for now. That's because I just don't trust Quintana at all. He's allowing a .387 wOBA on the road this year. It hasn't mattered which side of the plate hitters have been hitting from; they've been hitting him hard regardless.
Quintana should likely attack Vargas with a mix of four-seamers, changeups, curves, and sinkers. Vargas has been OK against curves, but he's very strong against the other three. He's posted a .370 xwOBA or better against four-seamers, changeups, and sinkers against lefties, so we've got a good chance that if Quintana leaves one up, he'll do some damage against it.
Now let's head on over to another NL West team, but this time we'll back the hitter.
Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370, Fanatics)
So are the Diamondbacks actually going to do this? They've been one of the league's best offenses as of late and are hot on the Phillies' heels. They've got a tough test with the Padres, but I think they have a solid chance to do damage against him. And I expect that Carroll hitting a long ball could be a big reason for that.
CORBIN CARROLL WALK-OFF 2-RUN HOMER! pic.twitter.com/VnTASMNpXA
— MLB (@MLB) September 15, 2026
The Arizona lefty has, by my estimation, been getting a bit unlucky over the past 14 days. In that span, he's posted a 51.5% hard-hit rate to go along with a 15.2% barrel rate. Though his 26.0% strikeout rate could be lower, I'd expect more than three homers in this span. So maybe he's got a long ball coming to him.
Buehler, on the other hand, might be starting to show some cracks. Over the last 30 days, he's allowed a 2.28 HR/9 number, well above his 1.26 rate he's posted this season. That's thanks to six straight starts where he's allowed a homer. The opportunity is there.
Buehler should attack Carroll with a mix of cutters, four-seamers, and changeups. We're likely best suited to aim for Carroll to take advantage of a four-seamer, as he's hit ten of his 22 homers against them. But he's also had some really solid numbers against cutters, which Buehler has been homer-prone to this year.
I'm expecting that familiarity will help out here, and Carroll should continue to hit the ball hard against Buehler. As long as one's left up in the zone, then we should expect this bet to cash.
