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Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/1/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Manny Machado, Junior Caminero, and others!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Major League Baseball is set for another great month of exciting action, with a 30-team slate set to start this Wednesday and a flurry of baseball on tap. After seven early games, eight games fill up the scoreboard under the lights on this balanced split schedule. From the 15 games, a few stand out as strong matchups to attack for today's home run props. With extremely warm weather and favorable winds, a few spots look especially home-run-happy this Wednesday. Let's dive into the matchups and conditions to find some places that the fireworks could get off to an early start before this holiday weekend.
In this article, I'll be going over my four favorite home run props. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/1/2026)
Manny Machado OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+317 Kalshi)
The Padres are in Chicago at Wrigley Field, where the wind is expected to be blowing out pretty hard and could create a very homer-friendly environment. Machado is locking in at the plate and producing power to all fields.
Manny goes oppo 💪 pic.twitter.com/k1EjdrdMxE
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 1, 2026
That home run from Tuesday gives Machado 15 homers in his 81 games this season. He has a .203 ISO and 10.1% barrel rate, and even though his batting average and hard-hit rate have dipped, he still has plenty of power potential.
While his season numbers are down overall, he has four homers in his last 10 games while going 11-for-36 (.306) with a 51.7% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate. Even though he's a righty, 12 of his 16 homers have come against righties like Rea, and he finished last month with six dingers in June.
He'll look to carry over his better contact metrics and rejuvenated power production into the new month, starting on Wednesday afternoon. He actually has 10 of his 16 homers (62.5%) in his 118 at-bats (39.2%) during day games as well.
On Wednesday, with the wind whipping out at Wrigley, Machado faces Colin Rea, who has allowed 12 homers in his 17 games this season. Rea has given up eight of those 12 homers to righties, who have a .206 ISO and a 15.2% barrel rate against him on the season.
Machado is in a good spot to stay hot, especially since he's 3-for-6 in the past against Rea with a home run as one of those three hits.
Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+230 theScoreBET)
While Machado has been hitting the ball very well, he hasn't been the hottest home-run-hitting righty at third base. Junior Caminero has been on a power binge for the Rays and looks very ready for the home run derby in a few weeks. He seems to have started the competition early and has smashed a home run in each of his last five contests.
Junior Caminero homers in a FIFTH straight game! pic.twitter.com/Kn0Xz7ombb
— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2026
Caminero has eight home runs in his last seven games and is up to 23 homers on the year. Over his last five games, he has a 61.1% hard-hit rate and 27.8% barrel rate. He's barreling everything up and has been absolutely crushing it in almost every matchup. Of those 23 homers, 19 have come against right-handed pitchers.
He'll be looking to extend his streak on Wednesday night in Kansas City against righty Seth Lugo. Lugo has allowed 10 homers in his 16 starts, and righties like Caminero have seven of those 10 homers with a .236 ISO and an 11.4% barrel rate.
While the matchup is strong but not overwhelming, Caminero's recent form has been off the charts. He's mashing everything right now and will be looking to extend his streak to six games on Wednesday night in Kansas City. If he gets any pitches to hit, he has a strong chance to deposit them into the fountains. The streak will have to come to an end at some point, but it may not be against Lugo and the Royals this Wednesday.
