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Jamie's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/18/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., and others!
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! Honestly, I'm a mixed bag of emotions this morning. One one hand, I was seething from the Yankees blowing their game to the Mets. A 6-3 lead with two out in the ninth and Tyron Taylor up should not be a loss! On the other hand, the Cavs won, so my Knicks get a home series (and I get a birthday game one at Madison Square Garden tomorrow).
To baseball - we have brand new matchups starting today, and the weather is heating up all across the country. To add to that, we have heavy winds in the midwest that all seem to be blowing out to the fences, and a Coors series starting where the Rangers will travel to Colorado.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, May 18, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/18/2026)
Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250, FanDuel)
The Mets hit their high point of the season yesterday as they pulled off a miracle win against the Yankees to take the Subway Series. Juan Soto was a big part of it too, going 4-for-10 with a homer, three walks, and three stolen bases. His barrel rate is trending upwards, and he gets a prime matchup against Jake Irvin tonight.
The Washington righty is not having a fun start to the season with a 5.91 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 14.2% barrel rate allowed. He's been even worse at home with a 7.58 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, and it's going to be almost 90 degrees with the wind blowing out in Washington tonight.
Irvin has been obliterated by lefties this season with a 51.3% HHR and 17.4% barrel rate allowed, and Soto has a 22.8% barrel and .574 SLG against RHP this season. He's starting one of those runs where he looks like the best player in the league, and the homers are going to start coming in droves.
Career home run No. 250 for Juan Soto 👏 pic.twitter.com/lLoEyFdeei
— MLB (@MLB) May 16, 2026
Michael Busch OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425, TheScore)
Coors Field always gets the most attention due to ballpark factor, but "wind going out" days in Wrigley Field cannot be discounted. The current forecast calls for strong winds (almost 20 MPH) going straight out to left-center by gametime, and the Cubs have an IRT of 6.3 runs as a result.
There are a variety of ways to attack Brewers' pitcher Brandon Sproat, but lefties look like the key as Sproat has allowed a 42.2% HHR to southpaws this year. Busch doesn't always get a prime batting spot to maximize plate appearances, but he possesses the most raw power of any Cub from the left side.
Since the beginning of last season, Busch has beaten on RHP for a .413 wOBA and .244 ISO, and he's currently barreling righties for a 13.5% mark this season. He homered last game against the White Sox, so let's go for deuces back home in the friendly confines.
