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Happy Tuesday! It’s the biggest day of the hockey week with the biggest prize pools. Tonight we have a nine-game slate, which is one of the smaller Tuesday slates that we’ve seen this year. Even with the smaller slate, there are more than enough teams in great positions to succeed. As usual, Edmonton will be the elephant in the room, but they are far from a “must play” given the other options on the slate. Today we are going to look at who those options are.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, including five tournaments that have an entry fee of $15 or less and a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Ottawa Senators (OTT1 - Claude Giroux, Josh Norris, Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot)
The slate comes out firing, with Ottawa among the first games to drop the puck on Tuesday night. They head to Montreal to face a Canadiens team that has been getting very lucky on home ice. Over their last ten games, the Canadiens have allowed only 2.29 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, but advanced data says they were expected to have allowed 30% more goals. If they regress to that number, they would be one of the most vulnerable defenses on the slate.
The biggest advantage for the Senators could be who is in net for Montreal. Jake Allen looks to be the starter rather than Sam Montembeault, and that’s a big upgrade for the Senators' offense. Allen has allowed three or more goals in ten of his last twelve games. He’s been even worse at home, allowing 3.7 goals per game and saving fewer than 90% of the shots he’s faced. Those are the kinds of numbers we look for when stacking against a goalie. Montreal allows nearly 34 shots on goal per game, which is one of the highest numbers in the league. That kind of volume is great for an offense that we are looking to stack. Montreal tends to hard match their lines at home, so we can expect the very beatable defensive pairing of Matheson/Savard to spend the majority of their time attempting to defend the top line for Ottawa.
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman)
One of the things about Edmonton that goes overlooked is that people won’t stack the full line (including Evan Bouchard on defense) because it would require them to spend down for the rest of their lineup to players they may not be comfortable using. We make sure to identify lower-cost stacks (NYR3 is an example tonight) so you can use them with Edmonton and get the advantage of stacking the full line.
While it’s not mandatory to play the Oilers tonight, they are in a great spot, maybe their best of the year. Columbus has allowed over three even-strength goals over their last ten games, and they are doing themselves no favors by starting Daniil Tarasov in net. Tarasov is allowing over four goals per game and is saving under 93.5% of unblocked shots this year. Those are, by far, the worst goalie numbers on the slate. Meanwhile, Edmonton has scored 2.8 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, and advanced data shows that they’ve been unlucky as their expected goals per 60 minutes is a slate-high 3.56. The Oilers will likely be the highest-scoring team on the slate, the question is if you can surround them with enough firepower to make them the optimal line.
New York Islanders (NYI1 - Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson)
There are many lines that you could reasonably consider for the top three tonight, but I’m going to go with the Islanders facing the defending Stanley Cup Champions. Vegas is a great team, but they are banged up, playing on the second night of a road back-to-back, and their third game in four nights that included cross-country travel. As I write this, the second period just ended against New Jersey and Vegas has already allowed four goals. That’s about par for the course these days, as Vegas has allowed over three even-strength goals and 13 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last ten road games.
Adin Hill is expected to start this game for Vegas, and while he’s been strong this year, this is his first game after coming off IR and he’s allowing over half a goal game more on the road this year. New York has scored only 2.12 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, but they’re due for positive regression as their expected goals per 60 minutes during that span is 23% higher, and against a tired Vegas team that regression could start immediately.
Others in consideration: DAL1, NYR1, BUF1, ANH1, VGK1, VGK2, MTL1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Calgary Flames (CGY1 - Jonathan Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm, Yegor Sharangovich)
Calgary barely qualifies as a value stack, but with the trio averaging a price point of less than $5,000 each, I’m going to count it. The Flames get a great home matchup against one of the worst road defenses in the league, the St. Louis Blues. St. Louis has looked better lately, allowing “only” 2.52 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten road games, but advanced data shows that they’ve played like a team that should have allowed three goals. Any team that allows 2.8 goals is one we look to use a stack against, while three goals allowed per 60 minutes make for an elite target.
This line is playing some of their best hockey of the year. They have combined for 27 goals and assists over their last ten games, and each of them has at least three double-digit fantasy point games over their last six games. Yegor Sharangovich is the stud of the group, hitting that double-digit mark six times in his last ten games, including four games of 15 or more DraftKings points.
Others in consideration: MTL3, BUF2, NYR3
Top Goalies to Target
Alex Lyon (Detroit Red Wings)
If you look at the Heat Map, it may be a bit of a curiosity as to why Lyon is here, but once you look at how he’s played it starts to become more clear. He’s been great this year, allowing 2.47 goals per 60 minutes and saving over 96% of the unblocked shots that he has faced. Both of those numbers are significantly better than his expected production, which speaks to how well Lyon is playing. He’s allowed three goals or fewer in all but two of his 17 starts this year, leading to him scoring 15 or more fantasy points in 65% of his starts. He’s better at home than on the road, scoring 13% more points in home starts. Over his last seven starts, Lyon has scored more than 18 DraftKings points six times. He’s on a roll, is priced well, and is usable in both cash and GPP lineups.
Others in consideration (GPP): Andrei Vasilevskiy, Ilya Sorokin, Calvin Pickard
Others in consideration (Cash): Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Igor Shesterkin
