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Saturday is upon us and we have a tidy, little eight-game slate ahead of us. This is one of the more fun slates I can remember in a while, with one game in particular that stands out as a potential shootout (watch it end up ending at 2-1); Toronto visiting Vancouver. Both offenses are clicking and neither goalie is playing particularly well. If you want to fade that game, never fear, as many other teams are popping on the Heat Map. Like I said, this is a good one!
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, highlighted by the $20-entry Lamp Lighter with a top prize of $5,000.Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $1,500 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Boston Bruins (BOS1 - Charlie Coyle, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand)
Sam Montembeault, the Montreal goalie, is playing decent hockey but this is a bad spot for the Canadiens. Tonight marks their third road game in four nights; a situation that we always try to target. They are 1-1 on this road trip, coming off a night where they allowed six goals to the Ottawa Senators. Boston is a big step up in competition, averaging 3.08 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games.
They are led by the dynamic David Pastrnak. Pasta has multiple goals and assists in each of his last three games, and a total of 16 goals and assists over his last ten games. His shot volume is such that he has one of the higher floors in the game, scoring double-digit fantasy points in 17 of his last 20 games; eight of which were games of 20 or more DraftKings points. Brad Marchand is far less consistent, but when he hits he hits big. Over his last eight games, he has four games of less than ten fantasy points and four games of 14 or more DraftKings points. Charlie Coyle is the inexpensive piece that makes this an affordable stack. At just $5,200 he’s coming off a three-game stretch that’s seen him combine for four goals and assists, ten shots on goal, and average 13.8 DraftKings points per game.
Vancouver Canucks (VAN1 - J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson)
The premier fantasy matchup on today’s slate features the Toronto Maple Leafs heading to Vancouver to face the Canucks. Both of those teams are going to end up in this article as top stack options, but if I had to choose between them I would lead towards the home team. Vancouver has been great at home over their last ten games, averaging 3.42 even-strength goals per 60 minutes during that stretch. J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson have loved playing together on the top line, combining for 28 goals and assists over their last ten games. Brock Boeser hasn’t been bad either, combining for a total of nine goals and assists over these last ten games. At home, the trio combines for 15% more fantasy points, making this an even more attractive situation.
Advanced data suggests that Vancouver may be due for negative regression offensively, but this may not be the matchup where that happens. The Leafs have allowed 2.53 even-strength goals and 12.05 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last ten road games, and advanced data shows that they’ve been lucky to have not allowed more goals. Martin Jones should be in net for Toronto today, and the last couple of weeks have been a struggle for him. He’s allowed three or more goals in each of his last four games after a great run to start the season. It looks like all those high-danger chances are taking their toll, and against a hot offense like Vancouver, it’s likely that his struggles will continue.
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR1 - Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, Pontus Holmberg)
The other side of the Toronto/Vancouver matchup is one to keep an eye on as well. The Leafs' top line has been strong over the last handful of games, despite the team’s overall struggles. The team has scored a total of six goals in the first two games of their Western Canada road trip, and five of those goals have come from the top line. Maybe it’s a coincidence, or maybe it’s not, but this condensed success seems to have started with the promotion of Pontus Holmberg to the top line. He’s been a revelation over the last four games, combining for four goals and assists on 11 shots on goal; averaging 11 DraftKings points during that stretch. At just $3,200 he makes affording Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner that much easier.
The real reason we want to use the Leafs tonight is the negative regression we’ve been calling for all year with Vancouver may finally be occurring, particularly with Thatcher Demko, He has allowed three or more goals in seven of his last ten games and eleven of his last 16 games. He only did that five times in his first 16 starts. When he faced Toronto earlier this year, he allowed five goals on only 22 shots on goal. This is a bad matchup for him and a very good one for the Leafs.
Others in consideration: EDM2, LAK2, DAL2, EDM3
Top Value Stack of the Night
Washington Capitals (WSH1 - Dylan Strome, Max Pacioretty, T.J. Oshie)
We have been picking on the St. Louis Blues at home a lot this year, and we are going right back to that well tonight. Jordan Binnington is a wildly inconsistent goalie, but he’s in a stretch right now where he’s struggled more than he’s succeeded. In his last nine starts, he’s allowed three or more goals five times. Three of those games were at home, so it’s not like his splits are such that we should avoid him here.
The other thing that I like about this play is that the Capitals are starting to figure things out a little bit on offense. The trio of Strome, Pacioretty, and Oshie have combined for 11 goals and assists over their last four games. Patches and Oshie make this line work with their aggressive offensive mindset. They have combined for 28 shots on goal over those games, with each player having three or more shots on goal three times. St. Louis has allowed 12.2 high-danger chancers per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, which suits the aggression of the top line for Washington very well.
Others in consideration: BOS4, VAN4, VGK2, VGK4
Top Goalies to Target
Charlie Lindgren (Washington Capitals)
MODIFIED FROM THURSDAY: Charlie Lindgren, while not cheap, is certainly on the more affordable end of the priority goalie scale today. Lindgren doesn’t get a ton of playing time, but what he does get he makes the most of it. He has made 16 starts this year and is averaging just a shade under 16 DraftKings points per start. He’s been acceptable on the road, averaging 13 DraftKings points per game over seven starts; a perfectly reasonable output for his $7,200 price point. He only has five starts the entire year where he didn’t score double-digit fantasy points. He’s playing well above expectations, allowing 43% fewer goals, with a save percentage 16 points higher than expected.
Negative regression is coming but the Blues may not be the team to bring it out of him. They have scored only 2.34 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, and even with their positive regression, they would only be expected to score a paltry 2.37 goals. He held them to only two goals on Thursday night, so we know he can have success against this crew of players. This is a good spot for Lindgren, and he works as both a cash or GPP option tonight.
Others in consideration (GPP): Sam Montembeault, Linus Ullmark, Thatcher Demko, Tristan Jarry, Jacob Markstrom
Others in consideration (Cash): Stuart Skinner, Logan Thompson
