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There are 11 games on tonight’s slate, but for the first time in a long while, there aren’t any road teams popping on the Heat Map. I’m not sure if that has ever happened for me on a slate this large, but thankfully it hasn’t taken away from the value that we can find on tonight’s slate. There are slates at all price ranges that are presenting well, from the top line in Edmonton to the fourth line in Buffalo. This slate has a little bit of everything to help you build your lineups…except road teams. Weird!
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, four of which have a $20 or smaller entry fee and have a first prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize and a $33 entry tournament with a $4,000 top prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck.
Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard)
Once again, we are back on the Oilers. They continue to play well at home, averaging 2.8 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 games. Advanced data continues to suggest that they’ve been unlucky despite their strong play as their expected goals per 60 minutes are 30% higher than their average. Somehow, there are five players more expensive on tonight’s slate than Connor McDavid, which feels wrong to type. It’s only a few hundred dollars that you save by using McDavid over those other four players, but any value you can extract is always a positive in DFS.
The Seattle defense has been getting saved by their goalie, Joey Daccord. The Kraken were expected to allow 2.69 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games, but in actuality, they only gave up 1.87 goals. Daccord has allowed two or fewer goals in six of his last nine road games despite averaging 32.5 shots on goal faced per game. One of his worst games of the year was against these same Oilers, allowing four goals on 31 shots on November 15. If he’s off his game at all tonight, Edmonton could put up a GPP-winning level of production.
Buffalo Sabres (BUF1 - Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin)
The weather in Buffalo is treacherous, but I’m expecting this game to take place after getting canceled on Wednesday night. This feels like the kind of game where the Blackhawks will want to get out of town as quickly as possible, possibly lowering their energy level. They played at home on Tuesday, were supposed to have this game in Buffalo on Wednesday, dealt with horrendous weather, will be playing the game on Thursday, and then will have to turn around and play in Chicago on Friday; just a gross run of games for the team.
Not only will the travel monster attack the Blackhawks, but they are also one of the worst road teams in the NHL. They have allowed over four even-strength goals and a league-high 15.14 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games. Meanwhile, the Sabres are playing their best hockey of the year. They have averaged a legitimate 3.08 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten games.
The top line may be missing Jeff Skinner, but Casey Mittelstadt is a suitable replacement. Over his last 10 games, he has combined for 10 goals and assists with 22 shots on goal. I’m going to get as unique as I can with this line, so I’ll add in Rasmus Dahlin to go four men deep. They are priced well enough that you can create a balanced lineup if you use them as your top line, as opposed to Edmonton, with whom you’ll need to find massive value to fit all four members of their top line into your lineup.
Ottawa Senators (OTT1 - Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk, Ridly Greig)
Pop quiz: who is the best Tkachuk? It’s a trick question, it’s Keith, but in today’s NHL it sure looks like Brady is outplaying Matthew. Over his last 10 games, Brady Tkachuk has recorded a combined 10 goals and assists to go along with 43 SABS (shots and blocked shots). For the year, he’s averaging just under 15 DraftKings points per game, but at home, he’s upped that to almost 18 DraftKings points per game.
This trio went wild on Tuesday night, combining for 72.3 DraftKings points against the Avalanche. Tonight’s matchup against Montreal may be even better. The Canadiens will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back, having traveled from Florida where they played the Panthers. Sam Montembeault was the goalie in that game, so he will either be playing his second road game in as many nights or a lesser goal like Jake Allen will get the call in net. Either way, that’s a huge plus for Ottawa. With teams like Edmonton, Colorado, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Boston on the slate, Ottawa will likely go overlooked. They shouldn’t be.
Others in consideration: BOS1, TB1, EDM2
Brady Tkachuk in last night's 7-4 loss to the Avs:
19:18 toi
— 3 assists
— 8 shot attempts
— 2 hits
— on-ice for 24 more shot attempts for than against
— 85.20 5v5 xGF%The Captain did everything he could. pic.twitter.com/WbCaZOabJD
— Big Head Hockey (@BigHeadHcky) January 17, 2024
Top Value Stack of the Night
Calgary Flames (CGY2 - Nazem Kadri, Connor Zary, Martin Pospisil)
We are deep enough into the season where it’s reasonable to assume that the Maple Leafs defense isn’t going to get better without significant changes to their blue line and goalie rotation. Martin Jones has had flashes, but he’s allowed three or more goals in three straight games and four of seven starts on the road this year. The team as a whole has allowed 2.63 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games, but advanced data shows that they have room to get worse.
The second line for the Flames isn’t the line you’d immediately think to use, as both the top line and third line have outproduced them, but this line should get the majority of the ice time against Toronto’s first and third defensive pairings; the groups we want to target.
Kadri isn’t the issue for this line, as he’s produced a combined 12 goals and assists on 35 shots on goal over his last 10 games. It’s the youngsters, Zary and Pospisil, that we need to see step up their games. Neither player is overly aggressive, but we have seen occasional flashes of their upside. At their combined price of only $5,900, they won’t need to do much to pay off with Kadri as your secondary stack. If you want to increase your potential upside a little bit, then you can include either Rasmus Andersson or MacKenzie Weegar on defense; both of whom average over 12 DraftKings points per game and see power play opportunities.
Others in consideration: BOS2, BUF4, WSH2, TB2, LAK3
Top Goalies to Target
Charlie Lindgren (Washington Capitals)
Thatcher Demko is the only standout goalie on tonight’s slate, but he’s so expensive that he may be cost-prohibitive if you want to spend up for the rest of your lineup. Charlie Lindgren, while not cheap, is certainly on the more affordable end of the priority goalie scale today.
Lindgren doesn’t get a ton of playing time, but what he does get he makes the most of it. He has made 16 starts this year and is averaging just a shade under 16 DraftKings points per start. He’s even better at home, averaging over 18 DraftKings points per game over nine starts. He only has five starts the entire year where he didn’t score double-digit fantasy points. He’s playing well above expectations, allowing 43% fewer goals, with a save percentage 16 points higher than expected.
Negative regression is coming but the Blues may not be the team to bring it out of him. They have scored only 1.44 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games, and even with their positive regression, they would only be expected to score a paltry 2.35 goals. This is a good spot for Lindgren, and he works as both a cash or GPP option tonight.
Others in consideration (GPP): Carter Hart, Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markstrom, Cam Talbot, Connor Ingram
Others in consideration (Cash): Stuart Skinner, Thatcher Demko, Jake Oettinger
