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Tonight we have a smaller than usual Tuesday night slate, with only eight games on the docket. Never fear though, as there are plenty of great matchups we can try to take advantage of to hit our GPP and cash games. What I love most about this slate is that there are games all throughout the slate that we want to target. There isn’t a ton of value as of this writing, but that tends to emerge closer to lock. Make sure to keep an eye to updates on the Heat Map as we get closer to lock.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, five of which have a $20 or smaller entry fee and have a first prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck.
Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard)
The Oilers continue to get prime matchups, and they are taking advantage of them more often than not. Over their last ten home games, Edmonton has averaged 3.22 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. The craziest part about that number is that advanced data suggests that they’ve been unlucky, as their expected output was 7% higher than that. Toronto is on the opposite end of that spectrum. They have allowed 2.51 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, which is about 7% lower than what advanced data shows they should have allowed. Any time we can get this kind of situation with Edmonton, where they are due positive regression and the opposing defense is due negative regression, we have to try to take advantage.
The trio of McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Hyman are great any time, but at home, they may be the best line in the NHL. The trio averages just under 20 more DraftKings points per game at home than on the road, which is insane. They are on a hot streak at the moment, combining for 37 goals and assists over their last ten games. Evan Bouchard skates with them on the power play, and he’s been great all year. Over his last ten games, he’s recorded a combined eight goals and assists to go along with an average of 4.3 SABS (shots and blocked shots) per game. It is very hard to stack all four (impossible on FanDuel), but doing so will make you unique to everyone else in your GPP and could pay off huge if they go off and you hit on the right value plays.
Winnipeg Jets (WPG1 - Adam Lowry, Nikolaj Ehlers, Gabriel Vilardi, Josh Morrissey)
Any time you can stack against the Islanders on the road, you have to at least consider it. New York continues to struggle away from home, allowing 2.86 even-strength goals and 12.99 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last ten game. Advanced data shows that New York has been a little lucky, believe it or not, as their expected goals allowed is 5% higher. All three defensive pairings are susceptible, but the most generous has been their top pairing of Dobson/Romanov. The Jets’ top line should get the most ice time against that duo, and even without Mark Scheifele, it’s a positive environment for them.
Adam Lowry is over $3,000 cheaper and is a perfectly serviceable replacement. He is far from a sure thing, but gets to set up Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabriel Vilardi, which should help him quite a bit. They are a hyper-aggressive duo, shooting 36 times over their last five games. That kind of volume pays off by itself but is worth a lot more against a team like the Islanders who allow so many shots that are advantageous to opposing offenses. Josh Morrissey can be a little hit or miss on defense, but he has three or more shots on goal in each of his last six games and the Islanders give up a ton of fantasy points to opposing defenders.
Dallas Stars (DAL1 - Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson)
It was a toss-up between Dallas and the Rangers for this spot, but I’m going to ride the hot offense of the Stars. Dallas has averaged 3.58 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, and even with regression to their expected level they are still projecting a little higher than New York. They’ve scored three or more goals in eleven straight home games. The Kings, once one of the stronger defenses in the league, are on a downward trend. Cam Talbot has allowed three or more goals in four straight games, all on the road. Both the top line and the third line for Dallas are in play, but it’s their top line that has the higher upside. Hintz has double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games, Robertson in four of his last five, and Pavelski in two of his last three.
Others in consideration: NYR1, OTT2, CGY1, EDM2
Top Value Stack of the Night
Chicago Blackhawks (CHI1 - Philipp Kurashev, Taylor Raddysh, Rem Pitlick, Seth Jones)
There isn’t a ton of value that’s popping tonight, so we might as well look at the value stack that has the best matchup. San Jose, while improved a bit at home, is still very beatable on the road. They have allowed 3.44 even-strength goals and 12.77 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last ten road games. That it, that’s what we are banking on because the Chicago offense isn’t all that great on their own. The trio of Kurashev, Raddysh, and Pitlick have combined for 13 total goals this year and they don’t take a ton of shots (to be fair, Pitlick has only played three games), but this matchup is just too good to ignore. They are so cheap that they pair very well with Edmonton, and if they can combine for even one full-line goal they would pay off their prices. Seth Jones can be used as a one-off or as part of this stack simply for his SABS upside, as he has averaged nearly six SABS per game over his last ten games. San Jose allows the most points to opposing defenders, and Jones mans the blue line for the power play and the Sharks have the worst penalty kill in the league. Yes, I’ve totally talked myself into playing Chicago today.
Others in consideration: NYR3, ANH2, OTT3
Top Goalies to Target
Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets)
REPEAT FROM SATURDAY: Connor Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the NHL this year, full stop. He has been consistently excellent, allowing more than three goals in a game just once since October 17, a span of 28 games. With that said, he’s only been a mid-range fantasy option due to the lack of shot volume that he faces. The Jets allow under 30 shots on goal per game, limiting Hellebuyck’s upside. Still, with his low total of goals allowed, he has one of the safer floors in all of hockey, and in cash games, we are willing to sacrifice upside for safety. Over his last ten home games, Hellebuyck has scored 16 or more DraftKings points eight times; that’s pretty safe! Goalie has been the hardest position to predict this year, so maybe it’s time to stop hunting value for our cash games and just play the best player.
If you’re bored using Helley, then Stuart Skinner is on a run of seven straight games of 17 or more DraftKings points and he’s $200 cheaper than Hellebuyck.
Others in consideration (GPP): Connor Ingram, Jacob Markstrom, Jake Oettinger
Others in consideration (Cash): Stuart Skinner
