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Power Risers and Fallers: Week Three

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some early fantasy baseball bats that are either starting hot or cold in the power department.

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. And as with every April analysis article, the standard “it’s really early so read with heaping grains of salt” note applies.

Let's get to it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Mitch Moreland (1B - BOS):

Entering play on Thursday, Moreland was your 2017 leader in hard-hit rate at a hilarious 60 percent. He went 1-for-4 with a double and is doing all he can to manufacture that lovely .476 BABIP that’s fueling his .344/.420/.574 triple slash. As Boston’s regular five-hole hitter, the lefty-swinging slugger should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of that low right-field wall and turn the hard contact into his usual 20-plus homer stuff -- just with better counting stats and a healthy average.

Michael Brantley (OF - CLE):

Brantley stepped onto the field on Thursday as the bronze medalist on the hard-hit rate leaderboard with a 57.6 percent rate and his usually stout zone-contact rate (91.2 percent). While nothing jumps off the page with his two homers and .286 average, it’s incredibly encouraging to see him locked in at the dish after his long road back to playing. This is to say that people should be taking him seriously again if they were still writing him off due to the time missed.

Elvis Andrus (SS - TEX):

Andrus already has three homers in only 62 plate appearances after socking a career-high eight in 568 PAs last season. While the exact pop pace will slow, it isn’t as though the three long balls were flukes as the speedster is tied for the fourth-most batted balls of 95 mph or more at 24 (tied with another power breakout in Nicholas Castellanos). He won’t keep his name atop that leaderboard throughout the season, but this is a notable surger for sure.

Ryan Zimmerman (3B - WAS):

Zimmerman appears poised to have his best season since 2013 despite a downtick in AEV and a lower rate of 95+ mph balls overall, so what gives? Well, as we all know, raw power isn’t everything. It has to be channeled in the proper manner -- namely, somewhat upwards. His overall launch angle has only improved by roughly four degrees on average, but there’s no doubting that his power is rising after he clobbered an R.A. Dickey knuckler to straight-away center field on Thursday for his fifth homer in only 58 PAs. He won’t sustain a HR/FB rate near 30 percent, but he’s finally directing his loud contact in the right direction.

Honorable Mention:

Taylor Motter (SS - SEA):

If you lower the bar for minimum batted-ball events on the Statcast leaderboard to 20 then you get Miguel Sano, Miguel Cabrera, Motter, Freddie Freeman…wait, go back. Motter is third? Yup, at 96 mph -- and that was before he clubbed a two-run shot over the center-field fence on Thursday. The issue here is he won’t have an everyday role once Jean Segura returns in a couple of days, though we suspect Seattle will find a place for this scorching bat somewhere.

 

Power Fallers

Edwin Encarnacion (1B - CLE):

Encarnacion actually sported a 51.6 percent hard-hit rate and above-average .310 BABIP entering Thursday, so how is he now hitting .218 with only two homers on the season? Well, while the contact is still “hard”, it just isn’t as hard as we’re used to seeing from E5. His 91.5 mph AEV from last season is down to 89.9 mph and his zone-contact rate is down to 77.5 percent from 85 percent. Basically, he’s making less frequent contact (backed by a 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate, 9.4 percent in ’16) and when he does connect, it’s got a bit less behind it. There’s some trouble here.

Ryan Schimpf (2B/3B - SD):

Schimpf does have three homers on the season, but also a horrid .119 batting average with a .077 BABIP thanks to a paltry 82.1 mph average exit velocity. That is the fifth worst out of all players with at least 25 batted-ball events, which is okay if you’re the aforementioned Dyson or Hamilton, but not a power-centric bat like Schimpf. The fly-ball happy Padre had a respectable 91.5 mph AEV last season and will need to square up the ball like that to give his fly balls a chance to consistently do damage.

Kyle Seager (3B - SEA):

Seager hasn’t homered yet and only has a .074 ISO through his first 16 games of 2017. Seattle’s third-bagger has posted AEVs of 89.3 and 90.9 mph over his past two seasons so his current 87.4 mph mark isn’t terrible, but this is a guy who has made a name for consistency. His current 20 percent hard-hit rate is nearly half of his 38.7 percent rate from 2016 and his line-drive rate has given about six percentage points to a lofty 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. This should iron out, but he’s not exactly suffering from bad luck here.

Xander Bogaerts (SS - BOS):

Bogaerts enjoyed a keen 90 mph AEV last season en route to his power breakout (21 homers in 719 PAs), but has only posted an 86.8 mph mark thus far and is also rocking a “zero” in the barrels column. It’s hard to complain about a guy who is hitting .333, but there’s no doubt that fantasy owners paid up for him in drafts just for some speed and a high batting average after his 2016 campaign. Only eight of his 37 batted balls have been at 95 mph or more (21.6 percent) compared to his 39.8 percent mark from ’16, which isn’t what we like to see. He’s a decent buy low if owners are frustrated, but this isn’t good.

Curtis Granderson (OF - NYM):

The Grandy Man can…not barrel the ball to save his life right now. Seriously, he has none thus far alongside an ugly 84.8 mph AEV (88.3 in ’16). He’s hitting plenty of fly balls, but has a ghastly 27 percent soft-contact rate and a very low 35.1 percent pull rate (43.6 percent in ’16) that may suggest he’s not seeing the ball well in the box. This doesn’t read as a, “he’s making a concerted effort to use all fields” type of thing, as Grandy has never been shy about being a pull-happy power bat. How long can he hold off Michael Conforto for a real everyday job?




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Victor Wembanyama

Participates in Morning Shootaround
Zion Williamson

Set to Suit Up Tuesday
TreVeyon Henderson

in Concussion Protocol, Week 17 Status Unclear
George Kittle

Week 17 Availability in Question?
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
Dyson Daniels

Misses First Game of the Season
Timothy Liljegren

to Miss Second Straight Game Tuesday
Will Smith

Out Week-to-Week
Jaccob Slavin

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
Seth Jarvis

Considered Week-to-Week
Darren Raddysh

Totals Three Points in Monday's Win
Mason Marchment

Scores Twice Monday
Vince Dunn

Injured in Monday's Win
Grayson Allen

Likely to Miss Third Straight Game
Rui Hachimura

Misses Second Consecutive Game Tuesday
Jaden McDaniels

Iffy for Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Out Against Heat
Khris Middleton

Available Versus Hornets
Corey Kispert

Returns to Wizards Lineup Tuesday
Bilal Coulibaly

Questionable Tuesday
Zach LaVine

Remains Unavailable Tuesday
Tristan da Silva

Ruled Out for Monday
Jalen Suggs

Ruled Out for Monday
Quentin Grimes

Uncertain to Suit Up Against Nets
Aaron Wiggins

Ruled Out for Monday
Dominick Barlow

Might Miss Tuesday's Meeting with Brooklyn
Deandre Ayton

Available Against Suns
Jalen Duren

Available for Monday
Alexandre Sarr

Off the Injury Report for Tuesday
Austin Reaves

May Return on Tuesday
Tyler Herro

Not Ready to Return Tuesday
Rashee Rice

Still in Concussion Protocol, Estimated as Non-Participant on Monday
J.J. McCarthy

Listed as DNP on Monday Ahead of Week 17
Ilya Sorokin

to Miss Tuesday's Game
DK Metcalf

Suspended for Two Games Following Confrontation with Fan
Christian Dvorak

Returns to Flyers Lineup
Elias Pettersson

Still Out Monday
Brandon Montour

to Miss Four Weeks After Hand Surgery
Miles Wood

Available Against Kings
Zach Werenski

Ruled Out Monday
Leo Carlsson

Won't Play Monday
CFB

Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator
TreVeyon Henderson

Exits Week 16 Victory with Head Injury
Mikhail Sergachev

Sets Up Two Goals
Fabian Zetterlund

Extends Scoring Streak With Three-Point Effort
Cale Makar

Has Three-Point Performance Against Wild
Tomas Hertl

Notches Three Points Sunday
Connor McDavid

Continues Scoring Tear Against Vegas
Sidney Crosby

Becomes Pittsburgh's All-Time Leading Scorer
Tristan Jarry

to Miss Couple of Weeks
Lamar Jackson

Questionable to Return in Week 16 with Back Injury
Willson Contreras

Shipped to the Red Sox
Quinshon Judkins

Done for the Season with Broken Leg
Nick Chubb

Officially Active Against Raiders in Week 16
Gardner Minshew

Won't Return in Week 16
Woody Marks

Officially Inactive for Week 16
Quinshon Judkins

Carted Off in Week 16, Ruled Out with Apparent Leg Injury
Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins Hope to Trade Tua Tagovailoa in the Offseason
Woody Marks

Not Expected to Play in Week 16
Washington Commanders

Commanders to Retain Dan Quinn, Fire Joe Whitt?
New York Giants

Marcus Freeman is a Top Candidate in Giants' Head Coaching Search
Cincinnati Bengals

Zac Taylor Expected to Return as Bengals' Head Coach in 2026
Las Vegas Raiders

Pete Carroll's Future with Las Vegas Raiders in Doubt
Tee Higgins

Active for Week 16 Against Dolphins
Woody Marks

Plans to Play Against Raiders in Week 16
Tee Higgins

Likely to Play at Miami on Sunday
Brandon Lowe

Pirates Acquire Brandon Lowe in Three-Team Trade
Shane Baz

Orioles Acquire Shane Baz From the Rays
CFB

Darian Mensah Returning to Duke Next Season
CFB

Josh Hoover Linked to Indiana in Transfer Portal
CFB

Arch Manning Agrees to Reduced Compensation for 2026 Season
Michael King

Padres Bring Michael King Back on Three-Year Deal
Logan Webb

Will Pitch for Team USA in World Baseball Classic
Tarik Skubal

Joins Team USA for World Baseball Classic
CFB

Will Muschamp Becoming Next Texas Defensive Coordinator
CFB

Beau Pribula Set to Enter Transfer Portal
Bo Bichette

Willing to Make the Move to Second Base

RANKINGS

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1B
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