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Power Risers and Fallers: Week Three

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some early fantasy baseball bats that are either starting hot or cold in the power department.

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. And as with every April analysis article, the standard “it’s really early so read with heaping grains of salt” note applies.

Let's get to it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Mitch Moreland (1B - BOS):

Entering play on Thursday, Moreland was your 2017 leader in hard-hit rate at a hilarious 60 percent. He went 1-for-4 with a double and is doing all he can to manufacture that lovely .476 BABIP that’s fueling his .344/.420/.574 triple slash. As Boston’s regular five-hole hitter, the lefty-swinging slugger should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of that low right-field wall and turn the hard contact into his usual 20-plus homer stuff -- just with better counting stats and a healthy average.

Michael Brantley (OF - CLE):

Brantley stepped onto the field on Thursday as the bronze medalist on the hard-hit rate leaderboard with a 57.6 percent rate and his usually stout zone-contact rate (91.2 percent). While nothing jumps off the page with his two homers and .286 average, it’s incredibly encouraging to see him locked in at the dish after his long road back to playing. This is to say that people should be taking him seriously again if they were still writing him off due to the time missed.

Elvis Andrus (SS - TEX):

Andrus already has three homers in only 62 plate appearances after socking a career-high eight in 568 PAs last season. While the exact pop pace will slow, it isn’t as though the three long balls were flukes as the speedster is tied for the fourth-most batted balls of 95 mph or more at 24 (tied with another power breakout in Nicholas Castellanos). He won’t keep his name atop that leaderboard throughout the season, but this is a notable surger for sure.

Ryan Zimmerman (3B - WAS):

Zimmerman appears poised to have his best season since 2013 despite a downtick in AEV and a lower rate of 95+ mph balls overall, so what gives? Well, as we all know, raw power isn’t everything. It has to be channeled in the proper manner -- namely, somewhat upwards. His overall launch angle has only improved by roughly four degrees on average, but there’s no doubting that his power is rising after he clobbered an R.A. Dickey knuckler to straight-away center field on Thursday for his fifth homer in only 58 PAs. He won’t sustain a HR/FB rate near 30 percent, but he’s finally directing his loud contact in the right direction.

Honorable Mention:

Taylor Motter (SS - SEA):

If you lower the bar for minimum batted-ball events on the Statcast leaderboard to 20 then you get Miguel Sano, Miguel Cabrera, Motter, Freddie Freeman…wait, go back. Motter is third? Yup, at 96 mph -- and that was before he clubbed a two-run shot over the center-field fence on Thursday. The issue here is he won’t have an everyday role once Jean Segura returns in a couple of days, though we suspect Seattle will find a place for this scorching bat somewhere.

 

Power Fallers

Edwin Encarnacion (1B - CLE):

Encarnacion actually sported a 51.6 percent hard-hit rate and above-average .310 BABIP entering Thursday, so how is he now hitting .218 with only two homers on the season? Well, while the contact is still “hard”, it just isn’t as hard as we’re used to seeing from E5. His 91.5 mph AEV from last season is down to 89.9 mph and his zone-contact rate is down to 77.5 percent from 85 percent. Basically, he’s making less frequent contact (backed by a 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate, 9.4 percent in ’16) and when he does connect, it’s got a bit less behind it. There’s some trouble here.

Ryan Schimpf (2B/3B - SD):

Schimpf does have three homers on the season, but also a horrid .119 batting average with a .077 BABIP thanks to a paltry 82.1 mph average exit velocity. That is the fifth worst out of all players with at least 25 batted-ball events, which is okay if you’re the aforementioned Dyson or Hamilton, but not a power-centric bat like Schimpf. The fly-ball happy Padre had a respectable 91.5 mph AEV last season and will need to square up the ball like that to give his fly balls a chance to consistently do damage.

Kyle Seager (3B - SEA):

Seager hasn’t homered yet and only has a .074 ISO through his first 16 games of 2017. Seattle’s third-bagger has posted AEVs of 89.3 and 90.9 mph over his past two seasons so his current 87.4 mph mark isn’t terrible, but this is a guy who has made a name for consistency. His current 20 percent hard-hit rate is nearly half of his 38.7 percent rate from 2016 and his line-drive rate has given about six percentage points to a lofty 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. This should iron out, but he’s not exactly suffering from bad luck here.

Xander Bogaerts (SS - BOS):

Bogaerts enjoyed a keen 90 mph AEV last season en route to his power breakout (21 homers in 719 PAs), but has only posted an 86.8 mph mark thus far and is also rocking a “zero” in the barrels column. It’s hard to complain about a guy who is hitting .333, but there’s no doubt that fantasy owners paid up for him in drafts just for some speed and a high batting average after his 2016 campaign. Only eight of his 37 batted balls have been at 95 mph or more (21.6 percent) compared to his 39.8 percent mark from ’16, which isn’t what we like to see. He’s a decent buy low if owners are frustrated, but this isn’t good.

Curtis Granderson (OF - NYM):

The Grandy Man can…not barrel the ball to save his life right now. Seriously, he has none thus far alongside an ugly 84.8 mph AEV (88.3 in ’16). He’s hitting plenty of fly balls, but has a ghastly 27 percent soft-contact rate and a very low 35.1 percent pull rate (43.6 percent in ’16) that may suggest he’s not seeing the ball well in the box. This doesn’t read as a, “he’s making a concerted effort to use all fields” type of thing, as Grandy has never been shy about being a pull-happy power bat. How long can he hold off Michael Conforto for a real everyday job?




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Cleared to Play on Friday
Jordan Goodwin

Available For Friday Night Against New Orleans
Pelle Larsson

Back on Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.

Ruled Out For Friday Night Against Memphis
Bam Adebayo

Will Miss Friday's Game Versus Atlanta
Justin Champagnie

Downgraded To Questionable For Friday Night
Scottie Barnes

Now Downgraded To Questionable For Friday
Jalen Suggs

Won't Play Versus Charlotte
Tristan da Silva

Returns To Action On Friday Night Against Hornets
Mason Plumlee

Ruled Out Again on Friday
Goga Bitadze

Downgraded To Out For Matchup Against Charlotte
Jordan Walsh

Available On Friday Against Pacers
Calvin Austin III

Ruled Out with Hamstring Injury for Week 17
Harold Fannin Jr.

Expected to Play on Sunday
Jordan Love

Ruled Out with Concussion for Saturday's Contest
George Kittle

"Likely a Game-Time Decision" on Sunday Night
Anthony Davis

To Miss Several Games With Groin Injury
Jordan Poole

Status In Question On Friday
A.J. Brown

Returns to Practice on Friday
Vince Williams Jr.

Remains Sidelined Friday
Gary Trent Jr.

Questionable With Calf Issue
Quentin Grimes

Still Battling Illness Friday
Dominick Barlow

Iffy For Friday Clash With Chicago
Corey Kispert

To Miss More Time With Hamstring Tightness
RJ Barrett

To Miss Another Game On Friday Night
Pelle Larsson

Listed As Probable For Friday Night Against Hawks
Josh Allen

Trending Toward Playing Vs. Philly
CFB

Michigan Targeting Kyle Whittingham as Next Head Coach
CFB

Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer
George Kittle

Remains Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Malik Willis

Carrying Questionable Tag for Week 17 Tilt
Jordan Love

Questionable for Saturday's Contest
Lamar Jackson

Listed as Doubtful for Week 17
Amon-Ra St. Brown

to Suit Up on Christmas Day
Rome Odunze

"Increasing Unlikely to Play" in Week 17
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Carries Questionable Tag on Thursday
David Montgomery

Expected to Play on Christmas Day
David Montgomery

Questionable to Play With Illness
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Questionable, Expected to Play on Thursday
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Place Rashee Rice on Injured Reserve
T.J. Hockenson

Ruled Out for Week 17
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Josh Johnson

to Start at QB on Thursday Against Dallas
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Davante Adams

Could Sit Out Final Two Regular-Season Games
Brock Bowers

Placed on Injured Reserve Due to Lingering Knee Injury
Connor McDavid

Finishes Battle of Alberta With Five Assists
Karel Vejmelka

Battling Upper-Body Injury
Alexandre Texier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Against Bruins
Alexander Nikishin

Dealing With Apparent Ankle Injury
Denver Barkey

Exits Early Tuesday
Travis Sanheim

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Tuesday
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
Viktor Arvidsson

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Ryan Leonard

Available Tuesday
Tom Wilson

in Danger of Missing First Game of the Season
Phillip Danault

Makes Second Canadiens Debut Tuesday
Collin Graf

Available Against Golden Knights
Jack Eichel

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Vince Dunn

Won't Play Tuesday
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
Timothy Liljegren

to Miss Second Straight Game Tuesday
Will Smith

Out Week-to-Week
Jaccob Slavin

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
Seth Jarvis

Considered Week-to-Week
Darren Raddysh

Totals Three Points in Monday's Win
Mason Marchment

Scores Twice Monday
Vince Dunn

Injured in Monday's Win
Ilya Sorokin

to Miss Tuesday's Game
CFB

Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator
Willson Contreras

Shipped to the Red Sox

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