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Power Risers and Fallers: Week Three

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some early fantasy baseball bats that are either starting hot or cold in the power department.

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. And as with every April analysis article, the standard “it’s really early so read with heaping grains of salt” note applies.

Let's get to it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Mitch Moreland (1B - BOS):

Entering play on Thursday, Moreland was your 2017 leader in hard-hit rate at a hilarious 60 percent. He went 1-for-4 with a double and is doing all he can to manufacture that lovely .476 BABIP that’s fueling his .344/.420/.574 triple slash. As Boston’s regular five-hole hitter, the lefty-swinging slugger should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of that low right-field wall and turn the hard contact into his usual 20-plus homer stuff -- just with better counting stats and a healthy average.

Michael Brantley (OF - CLE):

Brantley stepped onto the field on Thursday as the bronze medalist on the hard-hit rate leaderboard with a 57.6 percent rate and his usually stout zone-contact rate (91.2 percent). While nothing jumps off the page with his two homers and .286 average, it’s incredibly encouraging to see him locked in at the dish after his long road back to playing. This is to say that people should be taking him seriously again if they were still writing him off due to the time missed.

Elvis Andrus (SS - TEX):

Andrus already has three homers in only 62 plate appearances after socking a career-high eight in 568 PAs last season. While the exact pop pace will slow, it isn’t as though the three long balls were flukes as the speedster is tied for the fourth-most batted balls of 95 mph or more at 24 (tied with another power breakout in Nicholas Castellanos). He won’t keep his name atop that leaderboard throughout the season, but this is a notable surger for sure.

Ryan Zimmerman (3B - WAS):

Zimmerman appears poised to have his best season since 2013 despite a downtick in AEV and a lower rate of 95+ mph balls overall, so what gives? Well, as we all know, raw power isn’t everything. It has to be channeled in the proper manner -- namely, somewhat upwards. His overall launch angle has only improved by roughly four degrees on average, but there’s no doubting that his power is rising after he clobbered an R.A. Dickey knuckler to straight-away center field on Thursday for his fifth homer in only 58 PAs. He won’t sustain a HR/FB rate near 30 percent, but he’s finally directing his loud contact in the right direction.

Honorable Mention:

Taylor Motter (SS - SEA):

If you lower the bar for minimum batted-ball events on the Statcast leaderboard to 20 then you get Miguel Sano, Miguel Cabrera, Motter, Freddie Freeman…wait, go back. Motter is third? Yup, at 96 mph -- and that was before he clubbed a two-run shot over the center-field fence on Thursday. The issue here is he won’t have an everyday role once Jean Segura returns in a couple of days, though we suspect Seattle will find a place for this scorching bat somewhere.

 

Power Fallers

Edwin Encarnacion (1B - CLE):

Encarnacion actually sported a 51.6 percent hard-hit rate and above-average .310 BABIP entering Thursday, so how is he now hitting .218 with only two homers on the season? Well, while the contact is still “hard”, it just isn’t as hard as we’re used to seeing from E5. His 91.5 mph AEV from last season is down to 89.9 mph and his zone-contact rate is down to 77.5 percent from 85 percent. Basically, he’s making less frequent contact (backed by a 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate, 9.4 percent in ’16) and when he does connect, it’s got a bit less behind it. There’s some trouble here.

Ryan Schimpf (2B/3B - SD):

Schimpf does have three homers on the season, but also a horrid .119 batting average with a .077 BABIP thanks to a paltry 82.1 mph average exit velocity. That is the fifth worst out of all players with at least 25 batted-ball events, which is okay if you’re the aforementioned Dyson or Hamilton, but not a power-centric bat like Schimpf. The fly-ball happy Padre had a respectable 91.5 mph AEV last season and will need to square up the ball like that to give his fly balls a chance to consistently do damage.

Kyle Seager (3B - SEA):

Seager hasn’t homered yet and only has a .074 ISO through his first 16 games of 2017. Seattle’s third-bagger has posted AEVs of 89.3 and 90.9 mph over his past two seasons so his current 87.4 mph mark isn’t terrible, but this is a guy who has made a name for consistency. His current 20 percent hard-hit rate is nearly half of his 38.7 percent rate from 2016 and his line-drive rate has given about six percentage points to a lofty 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. This should iron out, but he’s not exactly suffering from bad luck here.

Xander Bogaerts (SS - BOS):

Bogaerts enjoyed a keen 90 mph AEV last season en route to his power breakout (21 homers in 719 PAs), but has only posted an 86.8 mph mark thus far and is also rocking a “zero” in the barrels column. It’s hard to complain about a guy who is hitting .333, but there’s no doubt that fantasy owners paid up for him in drafts just for some speed and a high batting average after his 2016 campaign. Only eight of his 37 batted balls have been at 95 mph or more (21.6 percent) compared to his 39.8 percent mark from ’16, which isn’t what we like to see. He’s a decent buy low if owners are frustrated, but this isn’t good.

Curtis Granderson (OF - NYM):

The Grandy Man can…not barrel the ball to save his life right now. Seriously, he has none thus far alongside an ugly 84.8 mph AEV (88.3 in ’16). He’s hitting plenty of fly balls, but has a ghastly 27 percent soft-contact rate and a very low 35.1 percent pull rate (43.6 percent in ’16) that may suggest he’s not seeing the ball well in the box. This doesn’t read as a, “he’s making a concerted effort to use all fields” type of thing, as Grandy has never been shy about being a pull-happy power bat. How long can he hold off Michael Conforto for a real everyday job?




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NFL

Bill Belichick Won't Pursue NFL Head-Coaching Vacancies
Anthony Davis

Out Again on Friday
Khalil Shakir

in the Clear to Play in Week 11
P.J. Washington

Sidelined Against the Clippers
Dereck Lively II

Officially Active, Will Have a Minutes Cap
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Returning Versus the Hornets
LaMelo Ball

Back in the Lineup on Friday Night
Domantas Sabonis

Good to Play on Friday
Bam Knight

Considered Questionable for Week 11
Brian Thomas Jr.

Tagged as Questionable for Week 11
Christian Braun

To Miss At Least Six Weeks With An Ankle Sprain
Calvin Ridley

Listed as Questionable for Week 11
Zach Edey

Questionable To Make Season Debut
Cedric Coward

Doubtful For Saturday's Game In Cleveland
John Gibson

Fine for Saturday
Kaiden Guhle

Ruled Out for 8-10 Weeks
Justin Thomas

Will Miss Start Of 2026 After Undergoing Back Surgery
Ja Morant

Off The Injury Report, Will Play Saturday
Alex Newhook

to Miss Four Months With Broken Ankle
Marco Rossi

Out Week-to-Week
J.K. Dobbins

Out in Week 11 and for "Foreseeable Future"
Zach Hyman

Set for Season Debut Saturday
Jack Hughes

Sustains Non-Hockey Hand Injury
Quinn Hughes

a Game-Time Decision Friday
Jaden Ivey

Participates in Pistons Morning Shootaround on Friday
Rashod Bateman

Ruled Out for Week 11
Sam LaPorta

Ruled Out for Week 11 With Back Injury
Coby White

Nearing A Return?
Isiah Pacheco

Officially Ruled Out for Week 11
Josh Giddey

Fully Practices On Friday
Day'Ron Sharpe

Available to Play on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Shemar Stewart Both Out for Week 11
Julian Champagnie

Questionable For Rematch Against Warriors
Jaxson Dart

Officially Ruled Out for Week 11 Due to Concussion
Jonathan Kuminga

Sitting Out Friday's NBA Cup Game
Darius Slayton

Ruled Out for Sunday
Dereck Lively II

Expected To Return To Action Friday
Davante Adams

Questionable for Sunday but Expected to Play
Drake London

Questionable vs Panthers
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Garrett Wilson

Jets Expect Garrett Wilson to Play Again This Season
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Lamar Jackson

Ready to Roll for Sunday
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Quentin Johnston

Questionable to Play Against Jaguars
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Jaxson Dart

"on Track" in the Concussion Protocol
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Chris Godwin

Missing Another Game
Bucky Irving

Officially Ruled Out for Week 11
Darius Slayton

Expected to Miss Week 11
Kawhi Leonard

Out on Friday vs. Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Drops 40 Points Against Hawks
Onyeka Okongwu

Posts Double-Double in Win Over Jazz
Jalen Johnson

Produces Huge Triple-Double
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday
Shane Pinto

Lands Four-Year Extension
Thomas Chabot

to Sit Out Two Weeks
William Karlsson

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Newhook

Injured in Big Loss
Jeff Skinner

Hurt Early on Thursday
John Gibson

Exits With Upper-Body Injury Thursday
Kaapo Kakko

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Thursday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Dylan Samberg

Makes Season Debut Thursday
Samuel Girard

Available Thursday
Valeri Nichushkin

Considered Week-to-Week
Boone Jenner

Out Long-Term With Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund

Returns to Action Thursday
Anthony Stolarz

Out Day-to-Day
Auston Matthews

Likely to Miss One Week
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
Ben Martin

a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
Lee Hodges

Searching for a Spark in Bermuda
Stephen Vogt

Wins Back-to-Back AL Manager of the Year Honors
Milwaukee Brewers

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager of the Year Again
Patrick Fishburn

Looking to Bounce Back in Bermuda
Eric Cole

Carrying Momentum into Bermuda
Tommy Edman

to Have Ankle Surgery Next Week
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Unlikely to Trade Ketel Marte
Roman Anthony

to Have a Normal Offseason
Jarren Duran

Red Sox Think Jarren Duran Needs a Fresh Start
MacKenzie Gore

Nationals Expected to Trade MacKenzie Gore?
Sahith Theegala

Finishes Tied for 27th at Bank of Utah Championship
Sam Stevens

Finishes Tied for 36th at Baycurrent Classic
Patrick Rodgers

Finishes Tied For Sixth at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke List

Finishes 75th at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied for 63rd at World Wide Technology Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied for 14th at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 46th at World Wide Technology Championship
Blades Brown

Finishes Tied for 18th at Korn Ferry Tour Championship
Tarik Skubal

Tigers Unlikely to Trade Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez

Cubs Could Land Framber Valdez in Free Agency
Sandy Alcantara

Marlins Ready to Trade Sandy Alcantara
CFB

Nic Anderson Could Return for LSU this Season
Randy Brown

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Gabriel Bonfim

Extends His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Schnell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Muslim Salikhov

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Uros Medic

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ismael Bonfim

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Chris Padilla

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Marco Tulio

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christian Leroy Duncan

Scores Second-Round Knockout Victory

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP