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Power Risers and Fallers: Week Three

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some early fantasy baseball bats that are either starting hot or cold in the power department.

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. And as with every April analysis article, the standard “it’s really early so read with heaping grains of salt” note applies.

Let's get to it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Mitch Moreland (1B - BOS):

Entering play on Thursday, Moreland was your 2017 leader in hard-hit rate at a hilarious 60 percent. He went 1-for-4 with a double and is doing all he can to manufacture that lovely .476 BABIP that’s fueling his .344/.420/.574 triple slash. As Boston’s regular five-hole hitter, the lefty-swinging slugger should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of that low right-field wall and turn the hard contact into his usual 20-plus homer stuff -- just with better counting stats and a healthy average.

Michael Brantley (OF - CLE):

Brantley stepped onto the field on Thursday as the bronze medalist on the hard-hit rate leaderboard with a 57.6 percent rate and his usually stout zone-contact rate (91.2 percent). While nothing jumps off the page with his two homers and .286 average, it’s incredibly encouraging to see him locked in at the dish after his long road back to playing. This is to say that people should be taking him seriously again if they were still writing him off due to the time missed.

Elvis Andrus (SS - TEX):

Andrus already has three homers in only 62 plate appearances after socking a career-high eight in 568 PAs last season. While the exact pop pace will slow, it isn’t as though the three long balls were flukes as the speedster is tied for the fourth-most batted balls of 95 mph or more at 24 (tied with another power breakout in Nicholas Castellanos). He won’t keep his name atop that leaderboard throughout the season, but this is a notable surger for sure.

Ryan Zimmerman (3B - WAS):

Zimmerman appears poised to have his best season since 2013 despite a downtick in AEV and a lower rate of 95+ mph balls overall, so what gives? Well, as we all know, raw power isn’t everything. It has to be channeled in the proper manner -- namely, somewhat upwards. His overall launch angle has only improved by roughly four degrees on average, but there’s no doubting that his power is rising after he clobbered an R.A. Dickey knuckler to straight-away center field on Thursday for his fifth homer in only 58 PAs. He won’t sustain a HR/FB rate near 30 percent, but he’s finally directing his loud contact in the right direction.

Honorable Mention:

Taylor Motter (SS - SEA):

If you lower the bar for minimum batted-ball events on the Statcast leaderboard to 20 then you get Miguel Sano, Miguel Cabrera, Motter, Freddie Freeman…wait, go back. Motter is third? Yup, at 96 mph -- and that was before he clubbed a two-run shot over the center-field fence on Thursday. The issue here is he won’t have an everyday role once Jean Segura returns in a couple of days, though we suspect Seattle will find a place for this scorching bat somewhere.

 

Power Fallers

Edwin Encarnacion (1B - CLE):

Encarnacion actually sported a 51.6 percent hard-hit rate and above-average .310 BABIP entering Thursday, so how is he now hitting .218 with only two homers on the season? Well, while the contact is still “hard”, it just isn’t as hard as we’re used to seeing from E5. His 91.5 mph AEV from last season is down to 89.9 mph and his zone-contact rate is down to 77.5 percent from 85 percent. Basically, he’s making less frequent contact (backed by a 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate, 9.4 percent in ’16) and when he does connect, it’s got a bit less behind it. There’s some trouble here.

Ryan Schimpf (2B/3B - SD):

Schimpf does have three homers on the season, but also a horrid .119 batting average with a .077 BABIP thanks to a paltry 82.1 mph average exit velocity. That is the fifth worst out of all players with at least 25 batted-ball events, which is okay if you’re the aforementioned Dyson or Hamilton, but not a power-centric bat like Schimpf. The fly-ball happy Padre had a respectable 91.5 mph AEV last season and will need to square up the ball like that to give his fly balls a chance to consistently do damage.

Kyle Seager (3B - SEA):

Seager hasn’t homered yet and only has a .074 ISO through his first 16 games of 2017. Seattle’s third-bagger has posted AEVs of 89.3 and 90.9 mph over his past two seasons so his current 87.4 mph mark isn’t terrible, but this is a guy who has made a name for consistency. His current 20 percent hard-hit rate is nearly half of his 38.7 percent rate from 2016 and his line-drive rate has given about six percentage points to a lofty 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. This should iron out, but he’s not exactly suffering from bad luck here.

Xander Bogaerts (SS - BOS):

Bogaerts enjoyed a keen 90 mph AEV last season en route to his power breakout (21 homers in 719 PAs), but has only posted an 86.8 mph mark thus far and is also rocking a “zero” in the barrels column. It’s hard to complain about a guy who is hitting .333, but there’s no doubt that fantasy owners paid up for him in drafts just for some speed and a high batting average after his 2016 campaign. Only eight of his 37 batted balls have been at 95 mph or more (21.6 percent) compared to his 39.8 percent mark from ’16, which isn’t what we like to see. He’s a decent buy low if owners are frustrated, but this isn’t good.

Curtis Granderson (OF - NYM):

The Grandy Man can…not barrel the ball to save his life right now. Seriously, he has none thus far alongside an ugly 84.8 mph AEV (88.3 in ’16). He’s hitting plenty of fly balls, but has a ghastly 27 percent soft-contact rate and a very low 35.1 percent pull rate (43.6 percent in ’16) that may suggest he’s not seeing the ball well in the box. This doesn’t read as a, “he’s making a concerted effort to use all fields” type of thing, as Grandy has never been shy about being a pull-happy power bat. How long can he hold off Michael Conforto for a real everyday job?




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Leddy

to Sit Out at Least Two Games
Nico Collins

Texans Rule Out Nico Collins for Week 8
Cody Glass

Set to Miss Time
Jason Zucker

Expected to Play Friday
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Misses Fifth Straight Game Friday
Brandon Aiyuk

Could Return to Practice Next Week
Morgan Rielly

Out on Friday
Lukas Reichel

Canucks Acquire Lukas Reichel
Brock Purdy

Officially Ruled Out for Week 8
VEG

Carter Hart Signs Two-Year Deal With Golden Knights
Vince Williams Jr.

Grizzlies Injury Woes Continue, Without Vince Williams Jr. Friday
A.J. Brown

Ruled Out For Week 8
Bo Bichette

Starting at Second, Batting Cleanup in Game 1 of World Series
Lamar Jackson

Officially Listed as Questionable to Play in Week 8
D'Andre Swift

Officially Questionable to Play in Week 8 Due to Groin Injury
Jae'Sean Tate

Questionable to Return Friday
Danny Wolf

Will Miss Friday's Matchup with Ankle Injury
Michael Penix Jr.

Questionable to Play in Week 8 Due to Knee Injury
Drake Powell

Rookie Drake Powell Ruled Out for Matchup with Cavs
Calvin Ridley

to Miss Another Game
Bo Bichette

Makes World Series Roster
Tyreek Hill

Considering Retirement?
Darren Waller

Expected to Return This Year
Bryce Young

Listed as Doubtful to Face the Bills
Ciryl Gane

Scheduled For A Title Fight
Tom Aspinall

Set for First Official Title Defense
Breece Hall

Questionable for Week 8
Mackenzie Dern

Can Become The New Strawweight Champion
Virna Jandiroba

Set For UFC 321 Co-Main Event
Mario Bautista

Aims To Extend His Win Streak
MMA

Umar Numagomedov A Favorite At UFC 321
Garrett Wilson

Ruled Out for Week 8
Jailton Almeida

Hopes To Get A Title Shot With A Win
Caris LeVert

Probable for Friday's Game
Alexander Volkov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Luka Garza

Unavailable Friday
Moritz Wagner

Remains Out Friday
Azamat Murzakanov

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Ja'Kobe Walter

Iffy for Friday Night
Aleksandar Rakic

In Dire Need Of Victory
Daniel Gafford

Listed as Questionable for Friday
Jeremy Sochan

Sits Out Friday's Game
De'Aaron Fox

Won't Play on Friday
Ja Morant

Questionable for Friday's Action
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Draws Questionable Tag on Friday
Kel'el Ware

Available on Friday Against Grizzlies
Darius Garland

Remains Sidelined on Friday
OG Anunoby

Listed as Probable on Friday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Likely to Play Friday Against Raptors
Zaccharie Risacher

Questionable Against Magic
Andrew Nembhard

Leaves Thursday With Shoulder Soreness
Rasmus Sandin

Won't Play on Friday
Matt Rempe

Hurt During Fight
Nick Leddy

Exits With Injury Thursday
Radko Gudas

Injured in Thursday's Win
William Carrier

to Miss Time
Eric Robinson

to Be Out for Extended Period
CFB

Texas Tech QB Will Hammond Will Start vs. Oklahoma State Saturday
CFB

Kansas State RB Dylan Edwards Out For Sunflower Showdown
CFB

Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson Will Not Play In Week 9
Brock Purdy

Not Expected to Play in Week 8
J.J. McCarthy

Vikings to Start J.J. McCarthy in Week 9 if Healthy
Omarion Hampton

Still Wearing a Walking Boot After Week 8
Kimani Vidal

Scores Touchdown and Demonstrates High Efficiency in Week 8 Win
Zack Wheeler

Could be Ready for Opening Day in 2026
Kevin Porter Jr.

Out at Least Two Games
Mitchell Robinson

Out Again on Friday
William Contreras

Could Need Finger Surgery
Aaron Jones Sr.

Officially Active Versus Chargers
Morgan Rielly

Questionable for Friday
NYI

Max Shabanov Out Against Red Wings
Morgan Barron

Available Thursday
Mason Marchment

a Game-Time Decision Thursday
Jonathan Marchessault

Won't Play Against Canucks
Matt Duchene

Sits Out Second Consecutive Game
Kirby Dach

Returns to Canadiens Lineup
Hampus Lindholm

a Game-Time Call Thursday
CFB

Utah QB Devon Dampier Listed as Questionable on Big 12 Injury Report
San Francisco Giants

Tony Vitello Named New Manager of the Giants
Jaylen Waddle

Dolphins Don't Have Plans to Trade Jaylen Waddle
Francisco Lindor

has Elbow Surgery, Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
PGA

Alex Noren is a Smash Play at Bank of Utah Championship
Mike Evans

Could be Back in Under Eight Weeks
Bucky Irving

Will Not Play in Week 8
Maverick McNealy

Look Out For Maverick McNealy This Week in Utah
Justin Lower

Unlikely to Flip The Script at Bank of Utah Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Looking for Repeat Performance in Utah
CFB

Behren Morton Will be Listed as Questionable on Wednesday
Max McGreevy

a Longer Shot to Contend in Utah
Jackson Suber

on the Bubble for the PGA in 2026
Greyson Sigg

Improving at the Right Time This Fall
Seamus Power

Hopes to Make More Birdies This Week
Patton Kizzire

May Struggle Once Again in Utah
Beau Hossler

Up and Down Heading to Bank of Utah Championship
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Find the Weekend in Utah
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Enjoying the Fall Golf Season
Tom Hoge

Sputtering into Bank of Utah Championship
Sahith Theegala

On the Upswing Heading into Utah
Andrew Putnam

Looks to Find Form in Utah
Matt McCarty

Looks to Defend Title in Utah
Ben Kohles

a Strong Value Play at Bank of Utah Championship
Max Homa

Trending Up Entering the Bank of Utah Championship
Nick Dunlap

Searching for Spark at Bank of Utah Championship
Quade Cummins

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of Bank of Utah Championship
Jason Day

Making a Spot Start at Bank of Utah Championship
Los Angeles Angels

Kurt Suzuki to be the Angels' Next Manager
Bo Bichette

Plans to be Ready for World Series
Brandon Woodruff

Expects to Be Ready for Opening Day
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Suffers His First UFC Loss
Brendan Allen

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kevin Holland

Drops Decision
Mike Malott

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Marlon Vera

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
Aiemann Zahabi

Gets A Razor-Thin Split Decision Win
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Manon Fiorot

Gets Back In The Win Column
Davey Grant

Suffers Submission Loss
Charles Jourdain

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Frevola

Gets Dominated At UFC Vancouver
George Springer

Returns to Lineup for Game 6 of ALCS
CFB

Colorado State Fires Head Coach Jay Norvell After Four Seasons
CFB

Florida Fires Head Coach Billy Napier After Four Years
Chase Elliott

Can Chase Elliott Deliver Another Clutch Win to Make Championship 4?
William Byron

Seeks First Win at Talladega to Overcome Las Vegas Crash
Chase Briscoe

Likely to Finish Worse Than he Starts
Kyle Larson

Despite No Wins on Drafting Tracks, Kyle Larson is Improving
Tyler Reddick

Despite Winning at Talladega, Tyler Reddick's Drafting Record Is Not So Hot
Ross Chastain

Poor Qualifying Makes him a Strong DFS Option at Talladega
Chris Buescher

Excellent Crash Avoidance Could Reap Dividends at Talladega
Ty Gibbs

If Ty Gibbs' Team Executes a Better Strategy, he Could Win at Talladega
Daniel Suarez

Hopes for Clutch Talladega Win to Remain in the NASCAR Cup Series
Josh Berry

Might Contend at Talladega
Austin Dillon

Doesn't Lead Enough at Talladega to Contend for Wins

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