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Power Risers and Fallers: Week Three

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some early fantasy baseball bats that are either starting hot or cold in the power department.

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. And as with every April analysis article, the standard “it’s really early so read with heaping grains of salt” note applies.

Let's get to it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Mitch Moreland (1B - BOS):

Entering play on Thursday, Moreland was your 2017 leader in hard-hit rate at a hilarious 60 percent. He went 1-for-4 with a double and is doing all he can to manufacture that lovely .476 BABIP that’s fueling his .344/.420/.574 triple slash. As Boston’s regular five-hole hitter, the lefty-swinging slugger should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of that low right-field wall and turn the hard contact into his usual 20-plus homer stuff -- just with better counting stats and a healthy average.

Michael Brantley (OF - CLE):

Brantley stepped onto the field on Thursday as the bronze medalist on the hard-hit rate leaderboard with a 57.6 percent rate and his usually stout zone-contact rate (91.2 percent). While nothing jumps off the page with his two homers and .286 average, it’s incredibly encouraging to see him locked in at the dish after his long road back to playing. This is to say that people should be taking him seriously again if they were still writing him off due to the time missed.

Elvis Andrus (SS - TEX):

Andrus already has three homers in only 62 plate appearances after socking a career-high eight in 568 PAs last season. While the exact pop pace will slow, it isn’t as though the three long balls were flukes as the speedster is tied for the fourth-most batted balls of 95 mph or more at 24 (tied with another power breakout in Nicholas Castellanos). He won’t keep his name atop that leaderboard throughout the season, but this is a notable surger for sure.

Ryan Zimmerman (3B - WAS):

Zimmerman appears poised to have his best season since 2013 despite a downtick in AEV and a lower rate of 95+ mph balls overall, so what gives? Well, as we all know, raw power isn’t everything. It has to be channeled in the proper manner -- namely, somewhat upwards. His overall launch angle has only improved by roughly four degrees on average, but there’s no doubting that his power is rising after he clobbered an R.A. Dickey knuckler to straight-away center field on Thursday for his fifth homer in only 58 PAs. He won’t sustain a HR/FB rate near 30 percent, but he’s finally directing his loud contact in the right direction.

Honorable Mention:

Taylor Motter (SS - SEA):

If you lower the bar for minimum batted-ball events on the Statcast leaderboard to 20 then you get Miguel Sano, Miguel Cabrera, Motter, Freddie Freeman…wait, go back. Motter is third? Yup, at 96 mph -- and that was before he clubbed a two-run shot over the center-field fence on Thursday. The issue here is he won’t have an everyday role once Jean Segura returns in a couple of days, though we suspect Seattle will find a place for this scorching bat somewhere.

 

Power Fallers

Edwin Encarnacion (1B - CLE):

Encarnacion actually sported a 51.6 percent hard-hit rate and above-average .310 BABIP entering Thursday, so how is he now hitting .218 with only two homers on the season? Well, while the contact is still “hard”, it just isn’t as hard as we’re used to seeing from E5. His 91.5 mph AEV from last season is down to 89.9 mph and his zone-contact rate is down to 77.5 percent from 85 percent. Basically, he’s making less frequent contact (backed by a 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate, 9.4 percent in ’16) and when he does connect, it’s got a bit less behind it. There’s some trouble here.

Ryan Schimpf (2B/3B - SD):

Schimpf does have three homers on the season, but also a horrid .119 batting average with a .077 BABIP thanks to a paltry 82.1 mph average exit velocity. That is the fifth worst out of all players with at least 25 batted-ball events, which is okay if you’re the aforementioned Dyson or Hamilton, but not a power-centric bat like Schimpf. The fly-ball happy Padre had a respectable 91.5 mph AEV last season and will need to square up the ball like that to give his fly balls a chance to consistently do damage.

Kyle Seager (3B - SEA):

Seager hasn’t homered yet and only has a .074 ISO through his first 16 games of 2017. Seattle’s third-bagger has posted AEVs of 89.3 and 90.9 mph over his past two seasons so his current 87.4 mph mark isn’t terrible, but this is a guy who has made a name for consistency. His current 20 percent hard-hit rate is nearly half of his 38.7 percent rate from 2016 and his line-drive rate has given about six percentage points to a lofty 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. This should iron out, but he’s not exactly suffering from bad luck here.

Xander Bogaerts (SS - BOS):

Bogaerts enjoyed a keen 90 mph AEV last season en route to his power breakout (21 homers in 719 PAs), but has only posted an 86.8 mph mark thus far and is also rocking a “zero” in the barrels column. It’s hard to complain about a guy who is hitting .333, but there’s no doubt that fantasy owners paid up for him in drafts just for some speed and a high batting average after his 2016 campaign. Only eight of his 37 batted balls have been at 95 mph or more (21.6 percent) compared to his 39.8 percent mark from ’16, which isn’t what we like to see. He’s a decent buy low if owners are frustrated, but this isn’t good.

Curtis Granderson (OF - NYM):

The Grandy Man can…not barrel the ball to save his life right now. Seriously, he has none thus far alongside an ugly 84.8 mph AEV (88.3 in ’16). He’s hitting plenty of fly balls, but has a ghastly 27 percent soft-contact rate and a very low 35.1 percent pull rate (43.6 percent in ’16) that may suggest he’s not seeing the ball well in the box. This doesn’t read as a, “he’s making a concerted effort to use all fields” type of thing, as Grandy has never been shy about being a pull-happy power bat. How long can he hold off Michael Conforto for a real everyday job?




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Isaiah Stewart

Downgraded to Questionable Saturday with Illness
Rui Hachimura

Optimistic to Return vs. Kings
RJ Barrett

Ruled Out for Remainder of Friday with Ankle Injury
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Exits in Second Quarter Friday
Robert Williams III

Injury Forces Early Exit Friday
Tari Eason

Exits Friday with Ankle Sprain
Kevin Huerter

May Miss Saturday's Game vs. Mavericks
Julian Champagnie

May Sit Saturday vs. Boston
Mark Scheifele

Scores Twice as Jets End Skid
Jalen Smith

Could Sit Again Saturday
Ace Bailey

Misses Second Straight Game
John Carlson

Records Two Assists Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Absence Extends to Ten Games
Karel Vejmelka

Picks Up Win No. 20
Mike Conley

Ruled Out Saturday for Rest
Clayton Keller

Dishes Out Three Assists Friday
Jamie Benn

to Remain Out Saturday
Ilya Mikheyev

Expected to Play Saturday
Alexander Kerfoot

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Friday
Brandon Williams

Won't Play Saturday
P.J. Washington

to Remain Out Saturday
LeBron James

Ready to Face Bucks
Andrew Nembhard

Could Miss Another Game Saturday
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Uncertain for Saturday
Ryan Kalkbrenner

on Track to Return Saturday
Bruce Brown

Active Against Hawks
Aaron Gordon

Available Friday Night
Christian Braun

Cleared to Play Friday
John Klingberg

Could Return Sunday
Noah Laba

Could Return Saturday
Travis Konecny

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Kevin Stenlund

Available Friday
Anze Kopitar

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Aliaksei Protas

Back in Action Friday
Connor Bedard

Returns to Action Friday Night
Max Kepler

Receives 80-Game PED Suspension
CFB

Cam Coleman Visiting Alabama on Friday
Omarion Hampton

Expects to Play Sunday Night
CFB

Eric Singleton Jr. Enters Transfer Portal, Trending to Land at Florida
CFB

NCAA Denies Trinidad Chambliss a Sixth Year of Eligibility
Omarion Hampton

Questionable for Wild-Card Weekend
Kyle Tucker

Mets Remain in Mix for Kyle Tucker
Ketel Marte

Will Remain With Diamondbacks
Rashee Rice

to be Reviewed Under League's Conduct Policy
Travis Konecny

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Thursday
Blake Coleman

Makes Early Exit for Precautionary Reasons
Carter Hart

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Thursday
Joel Eriksson Ek

Out Day-to-Day
Joel Kiviranta

Labeled Week-to-Week
Brendan Smith

Out for 3-4 Months After Surgery
SJ

Sharks Acquire Laurent Brossoit
Daniel Jones

Colts Plan to Re-Sign Daniel Jones
Davante Adams

Off the Injury Report, Will Play Against Carolina
Bo Bichette

Phillies to Meet With Bo Bichette
Rome Odunze

Will Return for Wild-Card Game on Saturday
CFB

DJ Lagway Commits to Baylor
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Fire Head Coach Mike McDaniel
Sam LaPorta

Plans to be Back for Training Camp
Owen Caissie

Shipped to Miami as Centerpiece of Trade
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Officially Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
Rome Odunze

Plans to Play on Saturday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Finalizing Deal to Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
New York Giants

Giants "All-In" on Hiring John Harbaugh
CFB

Jackson Arnold Signs with UNLV
CFB

Sam Leavitt Scheduled to Visit Tennessee
New York Giants

John Harbaugh Expected to be Favorite to Become New Giants Head Coach
Baltimore Ravens

John Harbaugh Won't Return as Ravens Head Coach
Bo Bichette

Unlikely to Return to Toronto?
Jordan Love

Ready to Start in Wild-Card Game Against Bears
CFB

Jadan Baugh Staying with Florida for Junior Season
Washington Commanders

Commanders "Mutually" Parting Ways With OC Kliff Kingsbury
CFB

Byrum Brown Officially Commits to Auburn
CFB

Austin Simmons Signing with Missouri
CFB

Ty Simpson Undecided on 2026 Plans
CFB

Quarterback AJ Hill Following Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Have Requested an Interview With Klint Kubiak
Deshaun Watson

Browns Expect Deshaun Watson to be on the Team Next Year
Wan'Dale Robinson

Dealing With Fractured Ribs
Cam Skattebo

Hopes to be Back by Training Camp
Cameron Ward

Won't Need Surgery on his Shoulder
Davante Adams

Rams Expect Davante Adams to Return in Wild-Card Round
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Fire Head Coach Jonathan Gannon
CFB

Trinidad Chambliss Will Return to Ole Miss If Granted Sixth Year of Eligibility
Bo Bichette

Phillies Have Interest in Bo Bichette
Kansas City Royals

Matt Quatraro Signs Three-Year Extension With Royals
CFB

Transfer QB Billy Edwards Commits to North Carolina
CFB

Sam Leavitt Visiting Texas Tech on Saturday

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