Post-Hype Hitters Ready To Break Out

March 9, 2022

Justin Dunbar's favorite post-hype hitters and sleepers to target late in fantasy baseball drafts for the 2022 season.

In a day and age where prospect coverage is at an all-time high, we as a baseball community have never hyped up prospects to the extent we are currently. Once upon a time, prospects were seen as unproven commodities that we asset in trades for established big-league players. Now, they're the exciting new kid on the block that we center our attention around. As we look for the "next big thing," it's easy to look towards prospects, and embrace the concept of the unknown- why wouldn't you want to dream on the upside they provide?

That being said, not all prospects produce immediately at the big-league level. However, instead of expecting some sort of learning curve, we tend to take the other extreme, dismissing these players and moving them significantly down their draft board. That being said, doing so might cause you to miss the breakout that is coming.

Players who were once hyped but become forgotten are known as "post-hype" sleepers. The labeling is actually quite simple- the hype has passed these players, causing them to go under the radar. Today, we'll be looking at three hitters who fit these criteria. Once top prospects, the shine has gone away, however, if you look past this, you might be able to identify a contributor who can either vastly outperform his ADP or gain stock in a dynasty league. So, which post-hype hitters should be on your radar?

Brendan Rodgers, Colorado Rockies

Speaking of Alex Bregman, he was not MLB Pipeline's #1 prospect in the 2015 MLB draft, nor was #1 overall pick Dansby Swanson. Rather, that honor would go to Brendan Rodgers, who was the third overall pick in that draft, going just after Swanson and Bregman. Meanwhile, there was plenty of optimism about his offensive upside:

"The Orlando area high schooler has gotten considerably stronger in the last year and he generates power with an easy, compact stroke. He doesn't have to muscle up to hit home runs, and his bat speed and all-fields approach bode well for his ability to hit for average as a pro. He's a quality athlete with solid speed and above-average arm strength, one who draws comparisons to the Cubs' Addison Russell."

This optimism continued for several years, as you can see from Rodgers' rank by year in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospect list:

• 2016: 12th
• 2017: 15th
• 2018: 15th
• 2019: 10th

Based on those rankings, it's pretty clear that on a year-over-year basis, he was seen as one of the top prospects in the sport. Meanwhile, this is in spite of some questions about his defensive future. This speaks to how polished he was seen offensively, which means he was even more coveted as an asset in dynasty leagues based on his potential future fantasy value.

It's easy to see why this was the case. Between 2016 and 2019 in the minors, Rodgers posted a .299/.353/.512 slash line in addition to a 134 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+). As he moved up from level to level, his production didn't cater, and it looked like the Rockies had a special player to build around for the future.

Then, things took a turn for the worse. In his major-league debut in 2019, Rodgers posted a putrid 26 wRC+ in 81 plate appearances. In other words, he was 74% below league average and coupled that with a 33.3% strikeout rate, .026 isolated power (ISO), and a .224 batting average. Even worse, he had to undergo surgery for a torn labrum in his right shoulder, shutting him down for the rest of 2019, as well as almost all of 2020.

Coming into 2021, Rodgers wasn't even guaranteed a starting role. He made his debut on May 21st, and from that point on, he didn't look back. With a .284/.320/.470 slash line, as well as 15 home runs in 415 plate appearances, Rodgers showcased the combination of hit tool and power that had made him a hyped-up prospect for so long. To top it off, he worked his way up to the #2 spot in the lineup, boosting potential to score runs moving forward.

That being said, the case can be made we don't have a strong enough sample of Rodgers producing to fully buy-in. Luckily, there might be more on the table. Rodgers is seen as someone with a lot of raw power, but his barrel rate was suppressed to 6.2% due to a 50.8% ground-ball rate. If there is any sort of swing change there, then more power is on the table. If not, his even sprays (only a 30.8% pull rate) and current contact trajectory will play well for a strong batting average, particularly in Colorado.

Finally, Rodgers should eclipse 500 to 550 plate appearances this season. With that in mind, a .280 batting average with 20 home runs and around 140 runs+RBI is fully in play. That is quite appealing. In redraft leagues, he's the perfect target for your middle infield spot, while he's a great player to buy into in dynasty leagues. After all, he's only 25-years-old, and if he makes good on the projections for him this season, his stock is only going to rise moving forward. He might not be the Rodgers being discussed in sports currently, but let's change that!

Nick Madrigal, Chicago Cubs

I think it's time we take a step back and appreciate how strong the 2018 Oregon State baseball team was. Not only did they win the College World Series, but their roster was full of impact young talent.

• Catcher Adley Rutschman, considered by many to be the #1 prospect in the MLB
• Outfielder Trevor Larnach, a former well-regarded prospect who should be a starting outfielder for the Twins this season
• Outfielder Steven Kwan, who had the lowest swinging-strike rate in the minors and will likely make his MLB debut this season
• Shortstop Cadyn Greiner, the 37th overall pick by the Orioles in the 2018 MLB draft
• Pitcher Christian Chamberlain, a fourth-round pick by the Royals in the 2020 MLB draft
• Pitcher Kevin Abel, a seventh-round pick by the Reds in the 2021 MLB draft.

Then, there is Nick Madrigal, who might have been the most valuable player on that championship team. During his college career, he posted a .361/.422/.502 slash line while playing strong defense up the middle. Add in his elite contact skills (5.23% strikeout rate compared to an 8.2% walk rate), and it's easy to see why he was a coveted commodity in the 2018 MLB draft.

Ultimately, the White Sox selected him with the fourth overall pick, which is right around where he was expected to be drafted- MLB Pipeline ranked him as the third-best player and the top position player in that draft. Immediately, he produced. In the minors in 2019, Madrigal struck out just 3% of the time, allowing him to post a .311 batting average. This fueled him to a 125 wRC+, which was enough for Chicago to put him on the opening day roster in 2020.

With a .340 batting average, a 111 wRC+, and just a 6.4% strikeout rate, Madrigal made an impact right away. Now, that came with an unsustainable .365 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), but it was encouraging to see his contact abilities translate to the MLB level. It was more of the same in 2021, where Madrigal raised his wRC+ slightly to 113 wRC+ in 215 plate appearances, while he kept his batting average (.305) over .300.

Unfortunately, Madrigal suffered a season-ending hamstring injury in June. This prevented what could have been a standout season for the 24-year-old, and also likely played a major role in the White Sox making a difficult decision- they traded him, along with reliever Codi Heuer, at the trade deadline to the Cubs in a cross-town trade for reliever Craig Kimbrel.

We've only seen Madrigal receive 324 plate appearances throughout his MLB career. While the early signs are encouraging, it will be interesting to see if he can maintain such a high batting average. He only has pulled the ball 20% of the time throughout his early career, while his contact trajectory and solid speed point to the ability to post a high-enough BABIP to challenge for a .300 batting average.

You're not getting any power from Madrigal, but if you need a late batting average booster late in redraft leagues, you could do a lot worse. With his contact skills, he's a very underrated asset in points leagues, where he won't accumulate a lot of negative points for strikeouts, and his unbalanced profile doesn't surprise his value as much. There definitely isn't as much hype for him as there once was, but this is still one of the best pure contact hitters in baseball. Now, we just need to sit back, and let Saint Nick do what he does best- produce!

Nick Senzel, Cincinnati Reds

Why not continue with former top-five picks? Now, it was a bit of a surprise when Nick Senzel was drafted with the second overall pick in the 2016 MLB draft. However, for the Reds, it made a lot of sense. Not only did they get him to sign for $1.5 million below slot value, but they seemed to be getting the best pure hitter in the draft.

During his final year at Tennessee, Senzel put up tremendous numbers. His eight home runs in 259 plate appearances may not stand out, but he did showcase power with a .244 ISO. Furthermore, he walked (15.44%) almost twice as much as he struck out (8.1%), guiding him to a .354 batting average and a .456 on-base percentage. With that type of production, it's no surprise the Reds targeted him.

The expectation all along was that Senzel would be a quick riser to the major-league level. For the most part, that is exactly what happened. Between 2016 and 2017 in the minors, he was as tough an out as there was. Overall, he posted a 160 wRC+, a .318/.387/.513 slash line, and ascended three levels during that span. There was some controversy over service-time manipulation, but by May of 2019, he was on the big-league team. That's quite the ascension in a small period of time!

With an 87 wRC+ in 414 plate appearances, Senzel's MLB debut wasn't particularly impressive. At the same time, it could've been a lot worse. His .256 batting average, .171 ISO, and 14 stolen bases made him a fine contributor for fantasy purposes, even in a year where offensive production was at an all-time high.

Since then, though, the 26-year-old has only had 202 plate appearances due to multiple injuries, mainly a knee injury that led to surgery. As a result, he's gone completely under the radar, and may not even be in the Reds' future plans anymore. Right now, Fangraphs depth chart projections peg him for just 224 plate appearances, which would make him equivalent to a fourth or fifth outfielder. That's quite the fall for a former top prospect.

Fortunately for Senzel, he should be in line for more plate appearances than that. The team is still committed to him based on his former prospect pedigree, and in my opinion, it's just a matter of him being fully healthy. I don't see a world where TJ Friedl or Shogo Akiyama keeps him from being the everyday center fielder, while Tyler Naquin could easily fall out of favor as well. Remember, this is a team that is looking to cut costs and rebuild, based on reports- I don't see them bringing in someone to take plate appearances away from a cost-controlled young player.

If that's the case, Senzel is an interesting late-round redraft target. In a limited sample size since 2019, he's raised his zone-contact rate to around 88%, while he's struck out much less as well. These are the contact skills we expected to see from Senzel, which makes it easier to buy into. In fact, THE BAT X projects him to post a .274 batting average and 103 wRC+, which would be a strong improvement over what he's produced so far.

With a solid batting average, speed (94th percentile sprint speed last year + stolen base history), and enough power in a favorable ballpark, Senzel could surprise people this season. He's still only 26-years-old and is only 616 plate appearances removed from being one of the top offensive prospects in the sport. He's a player with value in all formats and is the perfect definition of a post-hype sleeper. Before it's too late, make sure to target him!

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