Points League Pitchers: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 2

April 17, 2022

Nicklaus Gaut's H2H points league waiver wire pickups for Week 2 of the 2022 fantasy baseball season, identifying free agents pitchers to stream.

We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help with all of the best streams for the week.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of April 18 - April 24, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN, Yahoo!, or Fantrax. Rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, April 16.

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Know Your System

You know what I'm going to say, right?  You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.

For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Trea Turner being a top-five hitter versus a top-25 hitter.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes, you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

In addition to our overall waiver wire leaderboards, once we're deep enough into the season, we'll also start doing a 21-day leaderboard as well, giving us a window into recent production. All charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

Two Start Options

Jesus Luzardo, MIA (vs STL, @ ATL) - Grab him if he's there but this will likely be the last time Luzardo is on the waiver wire after he dominated in his first start of the year, striking out 12 batters in five IP. The two starts aren't ideal, as St. Louis and Atlanta both have offenses that are rolling but Luzardo is a must-add even if you don't necessarily use him this time out.

Nick Lodolo, CIN (vs STL, @ SD) - You can stash the talent if you want but I'm not messing with the rookie until he shows us something in the majors. Lodolo got smashed by Cleveland in his first start, allowing five runs in four innings, striking out four, and walking three.

Madison Bumgarner, ARI (vs NYM, @ WSH) - The results haven't been great in his first two starts of 2022, with Bumgarner walking six and only striking out four over his first eight innings. And while the Nationals haven't been overwhelming on offense, I'm not chancing running out a Mad Bum that can blow up in any given start.

But the early velocity increases are worth monitoring:

Josiah Gray, WSH (vs SF, vs ARI) - Definitely worth a pickup but I'm not rushing to start him against San Francisco (.336 wOBA vs RHP). Arizona, on the other hand, is a juicy opponent that has only posted a .282 wOBA vs RHP in 2022, with a 28.0% K% that's the second-highest in baseball.

Merrill Kelly, ARI (vs NYM, @ WSH) - Kelly has looked great in his first two starts and has yet to allow a run over 9.1 IP, striking out 13. Just be aware that the Mets have posted a .359 wOBA vs RHP in 2022, with just a 19.6% K%. And considering how bad the Diamondbacks have been, counting on a Win bonus is probably not a great idea, capping Kelly's ceiling.

Jordan Hicks, STL (@ CIN, @ MIA) - Until we see him pitch a full game, Hicks can't be started with any level of confidence.

Rich Hill, BOS (@ TB, vs MIN) - More startable than Hicks but Hill is still highly unlikely to reach five IP as long as he stays in a piggyback situation with Garrett Whitlock.

J.T. Brubaker, PIT (@ CHC, @ MIL) - Brubaker has tantalizing stuff but has yet to put it together and can be safely ignored until he shows signs of life.

Dallas Keuchel, CHW (@ MIN, @ CLE) - Friends don't let friends start Dallas Keuchel. Please don't start Dallas Keuchel.

Justin Steele, CHC (vs PIT, vs TB) - Steele has started off reasonably strong, allowing two ER over his 9.1 IP in his first two starts, with both runs coming in a start in Colorado. The start against the Pirates is certainly playable, while the Rays have been fairly mediocre vs LHP in the early goings, running just a .305 wOBA against them.

Dylan Bundy, MIN (vs CHW, @ BOS) - After five innings of shutout ball in a win over the Mariners, it looks like my sweet Dylan is back, baby! Ok, let's not get carried away. But Bundy did look fairly sharp and induced a ton of poor contact, even though the strikeouts were MIA, as was some velocity. Starts against a pair of Sox is not ideal, though.

Zach Thompson, PIT (@ CHC, @ MIL) - Another one of my seam-shifted sleepers (see Cortes, Nestor), Thompson looked good in his first start (outside of allowing a home run and double to Willson Contreras) before having his night prematurely ended after getting hit by a comebacker. Neither road start looks great, though, and the win bonus will rarely be on the table as long as he's a Pirate.

Chad Kuhl, COL (@ DET, vs PHI)

Alexander Wells, BAL (@ LAA, @ OAK)

Spenser Watkins, BAL (@LAA, @ OAK)

Jimmy Lambert, CHW (@ MIN, @ CLE)

Joan Adon, WSH (vs SF, vs ARI)

Single Start Options

The Great

Kyle Wright, ATL (vs MIA)

Matt Brash, SEA (vs KC) - How is Brash still on your waiver wire?

Aaron Ashby, MIL (@ PHI) - This is more of a future bet because I don't think I'm starting Ashby in that ballpark against that offense because that has bad news written all over it. But Ashby's stuff is the reason touts have been clamoring for his sleepiness all offseason and he's made it into the Brewers' rotation sooner than anticipated. He won't be available long.

Nestor Cortes Jr., NYY (vs CLE) - All hail King Nestor. First of his name and the one, seam-shifted ace of the Yankees staff. That's right, you heard me.

The specs on Cortes pitch mix might not seem like anything special (though an early velo bump is always nice to see, regardless of size) but it's how they play off of each other that makes them special. All of his fastballs are of the seam-shifted variety, getting pushed by the side-force while tunneling together in a manner that has given batters fits since last season. Along with a slider getting sweeping action from the other side, the Cortes mix ends with a lot of whiffs and groundballs. That's just the mix you're looking for in a fantasy star - whiffs for K's, groundballs to get deep in games, and the bonus of being backed by a strong Yankees bullpen and offense to help with wins. The Cortes breakout is coming but last call will be sooner than you think.

The Good

Steven Matz, STL (@ CIN) - Not a good open to the season but don't you dare underestimate just how bad Cincinnati's offense is going to be this year. The Reds' .253 wOBA vs LHP to open the season is the fifth-lowest in baseball.

Jameson Taillon, NYY (vs CLE)

MacKenzie Gore, SD (vs CIN)

Paul Blackburn, OAK (vs BAL) - In two starts on the road against Tampa Bay and Toronto, Blackburn has a 1.80 ERA over 10 IP, striking out 10 batters and walking only one. This feels more like a skills increase and he'll get another chance to prove it against an Orioles offense that has had a bottom-five offense vs RHP to start 2022.

Erik Fedde, ARI - Fedde made some notable changes late in 2021, dropping a lot of fastballs for a large increase in curveballs, and they've hung around for the time being. He has a 3.60 ERA through his first two starts and gets a lackluster Arizona offense for his third.

The Meh

Drew Smyly, CHC (vs PIT) - Smyly gets the Pirates again after shutting them out for five innings in his first start of 2022, allowing zero walks but also only striking out one.

Chris Flexen, SEA (vs KC)

Austin Gomber, COL (@ DET)

Antonio Senzatela, COL (@ DET) - If you haven't noticed, Senzatela has been pretty decent in his first two starts, albeit without many strikeouts.  And the Tigers have been sneaky bad vs RHP to start off the season, posting a .252 wOBA against them that is the second-worst in baseball.

Tyler Wells, BAL (@ OAK) - The former reliever is unlikely to go more than five IP but don't sleep on just how bad that A's offense is. In his last start, Wells shut out the Yankees for four IP, allowing just three hits.

Marco Gonzales, SEA (vs TEX) - Gonzales has started off strong but be aware that Texas has smashed LHP so far this season, posting a .414 wOBA, with just a 17.1% K%.

Adrian Houser, MIL (@ PHI) - Tough matchup for a sinkerballer to pitch in a ballpark made for home runs and against a mess of Philly hitters that are excellent at elevating the ball.

Eric Lauer, MIL (vs PIT) - The Pirates are bad. Sometimes that's enough.

Miles Mikolas, STL (@ MIA)

Daulton Jefferies, OAK (vs BAL) - Don't expect any strikeouts but Baltimore has been offensively inept enough to take a chance if you need it.

Keegan Thompson, CHC (vs COL)

The Ugly

Carlos Carrasco, NYM (vs SF)

Huascar Ynoa, ATL (vs MIA)

Tony Gonsolin, LAD (vs ATL)

Zach Eflin, PHI (@ COL) - You're kidding, right?

Chris Paddack, MIN (@ KC) - New City, same Paddack. He's a two-pitch pitcher with a bad fastball and is still living off his success from 2019. Until we see something different, it's time to give up the ghost.

Patrick Corbin, WSH (vs SF)

Nick Pivetta, BOS (vs TOR) - You must like pain. Or, at least, the smell of gas because you better believe that Pivetta is coming strapped with his big can for this matchup.

Kris Bubic, KC (vs MIN)

Mitch Keller, PIT (@ MIL) - I have some bad news for all of the poor souls who were tricked by Keller's early-season velocity boost...His fastball is still really, really (really!) straight. In fact, it's even straighter than it's ever been before because the vertical and horizontal raw movement is still virtually the same even at the higher velocity.

Keller's 15.5" of vMovement is 15% below average in 2022, compared to the 15.3" of vMovement in 2021 that was "only" 5% below average, with his hMovement dropping from 4% below average to 15% below average.

Good English, or not, I don't care how fast it go...straight ball get hit hard.

Relievers

Unless you're in a very deep league and/or have a lot of dedicated RP-only slots, most of the relievers you're going to want are the ones who are closers, have a chance to close, or elite setup guys. But I do mean elite because most scoring structures are weighted in a way that relievers almost necessarily have to get saves in order to be valuable. Although, long relievers whose usage you can reliably predict (Josh Fleming, Tyler Anderson, etc), can be useful in leagues with daily moves. But for a majority of leagues, sticking to closers is the way to go.

The Great

Hector Neris, HOU - Good pitcher with great closer stuff, on a great team. With Ryan Pressly hitting the IL, Neris is a must-add in all formats.

The Good

Tanner Rainey, WSH - Rainey seems to have the job and has been excellent but the Nationals remain pretty bad so it hasn't really mattered. He hasn't allowed a run in his first three appearances, striking out three and with zero walks.

Anthony Bender, MIA - Results haven't been great yet but he still seems to have the job and has seen a fairly large velocity boost in the early goings.

Josh Staumont, KC - With the Royals up 3-1 on Saturday, it was Barlow pitching the 8th and Staumont in the 9th picking up the save.

Jhoan Duran, MIN - Presumed to get the job after Tyler Rogers was traded, Minnesota just absolutely refuses to get themselves in a Save situation. Duran has nasty stuff but who has actually has the job is still pending.

The Meh

Daniel Bard, COL - Bard has the job but unfortunately, half of it takes place in Colorado.

Paul Sewald, SEA - Great pitcher, not the closer.

Andres Munoz, SEA - Great pitcher, not the closer

Diego Castillo, SEA - Sometimes a good pitcher, sometimes is the closer.

Drew Steckenrider, SEA - Not a great pitcher but is sometimes the closer.

The Ugly

Everyone in Cincinnati. Not only is there no set closer but the Reds being so bad makes it hard to count on anyone getting a reasonable amount of chances, let alone saves.

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