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Zach Eflin 2023 MLB Player Outlook: Barring Health, Change of Scenery Could Jump-Start Career-Year
2 years agoZach Eflin signed a three-year deal worth $40 million with the Tampa Bay Rays in December, the largest free-agent contract given out by Tampa in franchise history. The Orlando native elected to return home to Florida rather than accept his end of a mutual option with the Phillies. Eflin missed most of the 2022 season with a knee injury, but he was able to return in time for Philadelphia's postseason run out of the bullpen. With the Rays, though, Eflin will slot back into the rotation and join a robust set of arms in Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow. Now entering his age-29 season, the right-hander hopes to build off of a year where he tossed just 75 2/3 innings in the regular season, pitching to a 4.04 ERA and 3.56 FIP. Eflin is still averse to walking batters, ranking in the 91st percentile in BB% in 2022, and doesn't allow a lot of hard contact, as exemplified by his 94th percentile ranking in HardHit%. Eflin has both a strong sinker (39.9%) and curveball (20.1%), and although he throws the sinker more often, his curveball may have the edge as his best pitch, generating a 43.5 Whiff% and 23.6 PutAway%. Eflin has tremendous upside, but his current overall ADP places him at 361, as his health presents concerns. ATC projects Eflin with nine wins, 3.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 7.72 K:9 across 139 innings in 2023. If he can stay healthy in 2023, though, Eflin will pay dividends to fantasy teams and help the Rays tout one of the strongest rotations in baseball.
