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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2024 Player Outlook: High-End 1B Looks To Return To Dominance
12 months agoToronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. faced a challenging season, marked by his lowest wRC+ since 2020 and a notable dip in home runs to 26 from the previous two years. Guerrero's slash line of .264/.345/.444 approached career lows, suggesting a year below his usual standards. Despite the on-field struggles, his peripheral stats indicate potential bad luck throughout the season. Guerrero ranked in the top six percent for expected weighted on-base average and the top four percent for expected batting average, emphasizing the disparity between his outcomes and the quality of his contact. Impressively, he also landed in the top 10 percentile for average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, showcasing consistent elite contact. However, his aggressive, early-count swing approach, while reducing strikeouts, sometimes resulted in suboptimal pitch selection. Currently boasting an ADP of around 24, our rankings suggest this may be too high following his challenging season. Guerrero needs to rediscover his prior form to justify this draft position, introducing an element of risk at the current ADP.
