May 25, 2022

Ignore all the noise around Jimmy Garoppolo possibly being the 49ers' starting quarterback come Week 1 of the 2022 season. San Francisco didn't trade a haul for the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Trey Lance and have him sit for two years being Garoppolo. Here's why he'll be successful as the starter, at least from a fantasy football perspective. Last season, Lance started just two games and played a half of a third game. If you take the stats from all three games, he averaged a respectable 18 fantasy points per game. That would have been good for QB13 on the season, and that was with playing just a half in one of the games. Lance completed just 57.1% of his passes in those three games for 199.3 yards per game. He threw four total touchdowns and two interceptions. The difference-maker, however, is Lance's rushing ability. He rushed 10.3 times for 53.7 yards per game. He didn't score a single rushing touchdown in those three games but still managed to put up high-end QB2 numbers. Last season, Jalen Hurts performed similarly in his 15 starts to Lance in his three games played. Hurts averaged just north of 200 passing yards per game, completed just 61.3% of his passes, and had nearly a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. His QB rating was just 87.2, compared to Lance who had a higher QB rating of 97.3. Yet, the 52.3 rushing yards on 9.3 attempts per game and 10 total touchdowns on the ground propelled Hurts to a QB6 finish in his first year as a full-time starter. Lance may not score 10 rushing touchdowns, but if he's going to average anywhere close to 10 rushing attempts per game, he's bound to score using his legs. And don't forget the 49ers have arguably two of the most impactful skill players on the offensive side of the ball in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Those rushing yards and rushing touchdowns alone will give him a floor of a low-end QB1 in 2022.--Adam Koffler