6 years agoRick Porcello’s 2018 season was better than his 2017 season, which was way, way worse than his 2016 season when he won the MVP. The strange thing is that 2017 is the real outlier among his recent career. It just so happened that in 2016, everything went Porcello’s way. Owners trying to guess what Porcello will do in 2019 can confidently look at his 2018 as a reliable indicator. Porcello's 2018 was exemplified by his .303 wOBA, which was a bit better than his xwOBA of .308. He simply gave up too many well-hit balls and did too little to induce weak contact or swinging strikes. Last season, Porcello's fastball velocity was down another .7 MPH, sitting at 91.6, and he relied on his slider more frequently than ever before. That strategy was certainly a positive move for him and helps to explain his rebound from 2017. As a pitcher, Porcello has evolved a bit, and the increase in free-swinging hitters has allowed him to take advantage and increase his strikeout rate even as his swinging strike rate as decreased, but Porcello’s 2018 numbers are so close to most of his career averages that it is surprising he is being drafted at 158. The best argument for Porcello is that he should make his starts, earn wins by virtue of the Red Sox’ offense, and offer barely above-average strikeouts.--David Emerick