December 27, 2021

Utilized primarily as a reliever until the second half of 2021, Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez broke out to the tune of an 8-5 record, a 1.36 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and 107 strikeouts over 106 innings pitched. Over 12 starts, all after the All-Star break, Suárez posted a 3-2 record to go with a 1.51 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP over 65 2/3 IP. Heavy reliance on his sinker, changeup, and four-seam fastball with solid movement (albeit average velocity of 93.7 mph), resulted in a 31.4% hard-hit rate and 3% barrel rate which were in the top 7% and 2% in all of MLB, respectively. His slider generated a launch angle of negative 1% and his changeup generated a launch angle of just 4%. This resulted in a high ground ball rate of 59.7% (well ahead of the MLB average of 45.1%) and a low line drive rate of 16.8%. Soft contact coupled with a high ground ball rate helped Suárez keep the ball in the yard, where he allowed just four homers in 2021. His xwOBA of just .250 was tenth in all of MLB, and behind just two other starting pitchers (Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes). Additionally, an xERA of 2.62 and xBA of .204 further supported his 2021 breakout. Suárez currently has a somewhat low ADP of 168, primarily fueled by uncertainty as to whether his 2021 breakout was legitimate. Prior to 2021, Suárez only threw 67 2/3 IP in the majors, and, given the fact that he had just 12 starts in 2021, there is, admittedly, not too much history to go on here. That said, his underlying metrics are reminiscent of the proven, ground-ball heavy Marcus Stroman currently being drafted around pick 160. Suárez should build off of 2021 as he enters the Phillies rotation and post a strikeout per inning to go with solid ratios and 170-180 IP in 2022. He could also potentially far exceed these projections (and his current ADP) if he takes the next step.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller