4 years agoIn 2020, Rafael Montero compiled a 4.08 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, a perfect eight saves in eight opportunities, and 19 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings pitched with Texas. Now with Seattle after an early-December trade, managers who plan to draft Montero as a closer at his current ADP of 188 would be rolling the dice. First, it is not certain Montero will immediately slide into Seattle's closer role. The Mariners may look to other internal options (e.g., Yohan Ramirez), or they may make additional off-season moves to fortify a bullpen that was among the worst in the American League in 2020. Secondly, Montero's 2020 numbers show signs of regression. Despite his 4.08 ERA, Montero compiled an xERA of 4.61 and an xFIP of 4.85. He also saw a 4% decline in his 2019 K%. Furthermore, Montero yielded a 44.4% overall hard-hit rate, a 15.6% overall barrel rate, and an overall 23-degree launch angle. These are numbers that were well below 2020 MLB averages and don't equate to those of a lock-down closer. While Montero could generate save totals in the mid-20s, to go with an ERA near 4.25 and a strikeout per inning, his fantasy value is almost entirely dependent upon his attaining and retaining the Mariners' closer role. With bullpen competition and regression likely, this is a risky proposition. Managers should be cautious and potentially look elsewhere in the middle rounds of drafts for more sound closer options.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller